OldTimer1960

There are others knocking Smith for accuracy and ball placement, too. "Climbing the draft board" doesn't necessarily mean it is "real". We don't know where NFL scouts had each of these guys after last season. "Climbing the board" is a bit of a media phenomenon. As the media hear bits and pieces from the teams about players, the media adjusts their "evaluations".

Who signed David Nelson?

It is two different propositions to say that: 1. There will be one or more QBs drafted in round 1 and 2. There is one or more QBs worth drafting in round 1 I have no doubt that at least Geno Smith and Matt Barkley will be drafted in round 1. They may even be one or two more QBs taken. The big question to me is will any of them turn out to be good NFL starting QBs?

There are many here that don't really have a true perspective on the probability of success in the draft. Even first round picks are not sure things - true for even the best franchises. While still high picks, in the 2nd and 3rd rounds you are *hoping* to find good starters and reasonably happy to find good contributors even if they don't start. You also have to realize that not all drafts are equal. In some years there are more good players than other years. The Patriots are one of the best run franchises and have had sustained excellent performance. Here is their draft from 2009 (a draft where they had FOUR 2nd round picks and 2 3rd round picks): Rnd 2: Patrick Chung (S) - pretty solid player who has started 30 of the 50 games he has played in. Rnd 2: Ron Brace (DT) - fringe player who has started 0 games the last two years with a combined 8 tackles those 2 years. Rnd 2: Darius Butler (DB): Has started 18 games in 4 seasons. Has not played for the Pats since 2010 Rnd 2: Sebastian Vollmer (OT): decent to good starting OT. Has started most of the games he has played. Rnd 3: Brandon Tate (WR): 37 catches total in 4 seasons. Has not played for the Pats since 2010 Rnd 3: Tyronne McKenzie (LB): 17 career tackles. I don't hear anyone calling the Patriots a horrible drafting team. This is reality in the NFL draft, sometimes you hit and sometimes you miss - even the best.

Interesting theory, but I think you are way over thinking it. The Bills have several key players coming up to be resigned next year including Spiller and Wood. They already have huge money invested in Mario Williams and some others. I think that they feel that the early FAs were too pricey vs their production and they are waiting for some asking prices to come down. Signing some average players to above average contracts takes money away from paying to keep their own guys (and finding a QB)

I agree that you have to be careful what you believe that teams say about draft prospects. I can certainly understand that Arizona may want to perpetuate the idea that there aren't good QBs available in hopes that one might be available at their pick. But I would think it would be in KC's best interest to hype the QBs in hopes of enticing a team to trade up with them.

Chief's GM John Dorsey said he doesn't think there is a QB worth a first end grade. Cardinal's coach Bruce Arians (who knows QBs), thinks he'll stick with Drew Stanton and said: "noe of them (QBs in the draft) wowed me." Buyer beware.

You do know that Geno Smith's hands are nearly as small as Tyler Wilson's, right? (9.25" vs 8.5") FWIW, I don't care much about the hand size issue. It is only one small thing to look at IMHO

That is interesting, but I think Hasselbeck was released because he was making too much to be the backup. Titans couldn't get him to take a pay cut, so they released him. Much as the Bills did with Fitz.

I am not saying that Patterson might not be great and I don't think that there is any debate that he is an outstanding athlete. All that I am saying is that he is a considerably riskier pick than AJ Green was. Without even looking, I am sure that his JUCO stats are incredible, but I am also certain that most WRs that will go in round 2 or 3 would put up outstanding stats against JUCO competition.

I don't know if any of the QBs are worth taking at pick 8, much less giving up one or more other high picks to move up and take Smith or Barkley. Sit tight at 8 and let Oakland and Arizona take the risks on these guys. IF a trade up is considered, I might be able to get on-board with a move up from their 2nd pick to the late first/top of the 2nd in order to take Nassib, Manuel or Wilson. Even then, the Bills are in tough shape filling other holes (if they trade their 3rd and 2nd to move up). In the event that they could find a trade partner to move down in the 1st to pick up a 2nd, then I could see trading both 2nd round picks to try to get back into round 1.

This QB debate (for me) boils down to: IF the Bills think that there is a QB who has a good chance (not a long-shot) to be a good starting QB, then I think they should take him at #8. However, if they don't think there is anyone that is likely to be a good starter (QB) in the NFL, then it would be foolish to spend the first or even 2nd round pick on a player like that. Those high picks are too valuable to just "take a flyer" on a QB. Like everyone here, I would love for the Bills to find a very good young QB who could be a good starter for many years. I just don't know if there is anyone in this draft that is that guy. Geno Smith: Has a good arm, is reportedly intelligent and a hard worker - however, there are questions about his leadership skills/ability to pull his team out of a slump or bring them from behind as evidenced by West Virginia's disappointing fall after a hot start. Some also question his accuracy, in spite of his gaudy 71 completion percentage. He was throwing to two very very talented WRs - he had a better WR group at WVU than he would have with the Bills. Matt Barkley: I don't care about the history of USC QBs - that is no reason to pass on Barkely (IMHO). The same was said about Cal QBs, but Aaron Rodgers is pretty good. However, there are questions about his arm strength that are a bit of a concern. He is reportedly a very good leader and can make quick decisions and make accurate throws. Yet, there is something about him that seems a bit "golden-boyish" to me. I don't know how to quantify it and I may be completely off base with that, too. Tyler Wilson: I like what I have read about him, especially the leadership and toughness. However, I don't know if his arm is strong enough to be more than a nice backup/maybe game-manager starter. Ryan Nassib: I read that he is a hard worker and is built strong. I think his arm is pretty strong, not great. I don't think I've seen where he is a super leader, but he did lift a Syracuse program out of the dumper, so credit to him for contributing to that. That he would have a leg-up in learning Hackett's offense over other QBs is completely irrelevant to me. You are drafting a QB for the long-term, so a few months less or more to learn the offense means nothing. Many reports that I have seen don't rate him as a likely long-term starter, but at least 1 former NFL scout thinks he is the best player in the draft. EJ Manuel: I like his size, arm strength and intelligence, but he never really "lit it up" in college. He deserves some credit for his team winning multiple bowl games, but he didn't always play particularly well in those big games. Tyler Bray: I wouldn't want any part of this guy before the 4th round. I don't care how strong his arm is, he is reportedly immature and not a leader. He couldn't get Tennessee to play well even though (like Smith), he had two outstanding WRs to throw to. Above, I argued that Geno Smith's high completion percentage may not tell the whole story. With Bray, I think his 58% completion rate is strikingly bad considering who he had to pass to. Of the above, I think that Wilson, Nassib and Manuel show enough to take a shot at in the 2nd. I don't think I like Smith or Barkley enough to spend the 1st pick on, unless the Bills' scouts really don't have any reservations. The worst thing that they could do is talk themselves into overlooking too many shortcomings because they are so desperate for a QB.

You say: 8. Buffalo Bills - Cordarrelle Patterson / WR / Tennessee - Lord knows Stevie needs some help and I think he will get atleast two, if not three, potential cadidates from this draft. Patterson is the best WR in this draft and should be an immediate impact player, depending on who is getting him the football, along the lines of AJ Green. They are almost identical in size and possess the same traits on the field. With the top two QB's off the board Buffalo will make this pick to improve the offense at another skill position. Along the lines of AJ Green? Well yes, except that AJ Green caught 166 passes for 2600+ yards and 23 TDs over 3 seasons in the SEC whereas Patterson caught 46 passes for 778 yards and 5 TDs in one season. Patterson is much more of a projection (and bigger risk) than AJ Green was. I am not saying that Patterson might not be a good choice, but he has only 1 season of production at the major college level. AJ Green was a surer bet when he came out than Patterson.

I think it is a very big assumption to say that any QB that the Bills could draft this year is EVER ready to be a starter, much less in their first year in the league. This is a bad QB draft and just because the Bills (and other teams) desperately need a QB doesn't change that. I am not saying that it isn't worth taking a chance on one of the QBs this year, only that if they do they need to be prepared to accept that he may never be starting material. They need a veteran alternative. If they think Tarvaris Jackson is that guy, then OK. If not, then I'd like to see them pursue Kolb.

I wouldn't mind at all if the Bills selected any of the 3 very highly rated OTs with their first pick. Instead of moving Glenn to G, I think he'd make a dynamite RT and find a G somewhere else, maybe even Colin Brown. If there were a QB with a very good chance of becoming a good NFL starter, I'd lean that way, but I just don't see anybody this year. If the Bills' scouts also don't like any of the QBs, they could do a lot worse than to add a very good OT prospect and focus this year's offense around the running game.

I do 4,000 lbs on one leg just for warm ups. Then I get reAlly insane - wimpy pro athletes!

I also like what I've read/seen about Swope. I think Robert Woods would be a great addition, but agree that he likely won't be available when the Bills' 2nd pick comes up.

We are pretty much in agreement then on this. I just don't want the Bills' desperate need for a good starting QB to cause them to over-inflate their opinion on Smith or any other QB. I could accept it if they determined that there just aren't any good QB options this year and focused on improving other positions.

Dibbs, I love your analysis and effort. I think that your investigation was quite thorough. I am just not sure that the conclusion is fully solid. While I agree that most good starting QBs will be drafted in round 1 (and fairly early), (I am sure that you know) that is not the same as saying that over-drafting a QB in round 1 gives that player a good shot at becoming a good starting QB in the NFL. I will acknowledge that things are changing recently in the NFL and more young QBs are showing signs of success, but draft history is full of failed QBs that were over-drafted by QB-starved teams including: David Klingler (6) Tommy Maddox (25) Rick Mirer (2) Heath Shuler (3) Trent Dilfer (6) Kerry Collins (5) Ryan Leaf (2) Tim Couch (1) Akili Smith (3) Daunte Culpepper (11) Cade McNown (12) Chad Pennington (18) David Carr (1) Joey Harrington (3) Patrick Ramsey (32) Byron Leftwich (7) Kyle Boller (19) Rex Grossman (22) JP Losman (22) Alex Smith (1) Jason Campbell (25) Vince Young (3) Matt Leinart (10) Jamarcus Russell (1) Brady Quinn (22) Mark Sanchez (5) Tim Tebow (25) I stopped the list at 2010 as some of the 2011-2012 guys who are struggling may come on. Yes, there were a handful of good/great QBs drafted early over that range of years (1998-2010), but the list of less-than-successful early picks is much longer. Here is the list of (very liberally rated) successes as I see it: Peyton Manning (1) Donovan McNabb (2) Michael Vick (1) Carson Palmer (1) Eli Manning (1) Philip Rivers (4) Ben Roethlisberger (11) Aaron Rodgers (24) Jay Cutler (11) Matt Ryan (3) Joe Flacco (18) Matt Stafford (1) Josh Freeman (17) Sam Bradford (1) To be sure, there were some good QBs drafted after round 1, but the success rate was more dismal. From round 1 1998-2010 (13 years), I count 14 marginal to excellent starters and 27 very bad selections. I haven't done the numbers, but I bet that there are much better odds of success with some other positions (like OT, DE, DT). I am not sure what to conclude other than that a team should keep taking QBs yearly (or nearly yearly) until they find a good one. That doesn't necessarily mean in round 1 where the risk/reward is pretty high. I would conclude that the desperate need for QBs causes teams to overlook serious deficiencies in some prospects.

I am not against EJ Manuel, but he hasn't played in much bad weather having played at Fla St.

The highlighted is the only argument that I have with your post. It isn't because I think that Barkley is a great prospect, but rather to argue that he is a poor prospect because other USC QBs have failed. By that logic, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady would be no good because their predecessors at their respective schools were not good NFL QBs.

For the 8th overall pick? I am not saying that Christian Ponder will never improve, but the Vikings wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs had Adrian Peterson not had one of the greatest seasons ever for a RB.

332 attempts 433 completions 34 TDs 8 Ints; That was Colt McCoy's Jr season in a much better conference that Geno Smith played in. I am not saying that Smith is Colt McCoy - he has a stronger arm, but isn't much bigger, has very small hands (FWIW) and had far fewer Ws in his career. Jason Campbell completed 70% of his passes as a SR with a 3-1 TD-INT ratio in a GREAT conference. I *like* Geno Smith and think he has a chance to be a decent to good starting QB in the NFL. I just don't know if the likelihood of him being an above average starter is high enough to justify drafting him with the 8th pick. Never mind what the probability of him being a top 10 NFL QB would be..... I can align, to some extent, with the "we've got to have a QB that is better than Ryan Fitzpatrick" argument, but it all comes down to how strongly the Bills' professional scouts believe that he can be a good enough NFL QB to make them competitive in the playoffs. If they think there is a pretty good chance that he'll become that good, then by all means use the 8th pick in the draft on him. If not, then take someone at another position who has a better probability of being very good at their position.

He has missed a fair amount of games the last 2 years due to injury. He is also getting up there in age for cornerbacks. Yes, I know that there are some very rare exceptions that play into their mid-30s at CB, but not many.

I agree with you. I expect some players like this to be signed. Chase Daniels is interesting, but he really has no track record at all, other than preseason. He has thrown 9 passes in 4 regular seasons in the NFL, but I suppose based on his preseason performances, he could be of some interest to a QB-starved team in a year where there are more questions than answers in the draft.