OldTimer1960

I love following the draft, too. As with all who follow the draft fanatically, I had had favorite players in the draft who turned out to be good - and others that I was shocked at how little they did in the NFL. My perspective is that it is not just the Bills' scouts who passed on Kaepernick and Wilson - and these guys really are outliers as most 2nd round QBs really don't turn out to be good starters. It wasn't like no other teams had a need for a QB. I agree that they missed great opportunities with Kaepernick and Wilson. So, who is that QB this year?

Completely agree.

Do you think that the other QB's TD-INT ratio might have been as good or better in that offense with two very highly regarded NFL prospects at WR? I am admittedly not a Geno Smith fan, though I can respect his reported good work-ethic, intelligence and good arm/athleticism. I just think that there is something missing about him - I could be really wrong about that, but I'd like him a lot more if he led his team to a better record...

No doubt, not intending to excuse the Maybin pick. My only point was that not all draft classes are chock full of great players. Some classes are downright poor.

I don't really understand your point? Are you saying that there are lots of opinions (good and bad) on Geno Smith and that the truth is in the eye of the beholder? Or are you saying that because Smith was once-hyped as a certain high pick and best QB available, that you won't consider changing your opinion when someone who has at least scouted and been an NFL GM for years has a contrary opinion? FWIW, Casserly and former NFL scouts Daniel Jeremiah and Russ Lande are all not very high on Geno Smith.

But it is a person who has considerable experience as a scout and NFL GM.

Have a look at the top 10 selections in the 2009 draft and tell me that the Bills were the only "stupid" team when they picked Aron Maybin. http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/What-happened-here.html Knowshown Moreno, Larry English and Robert Ayers were also picked shortly after Maybin. My point is that some drafts are weak, some are strong and overall the "hit rate even among first rounders isn't as high as many think.

Way better options (IMHO) than the QBs available...

I would start considering him in round 3. He is a great talent, but there is risk that he will never recover fully. In the 3rd round, the probability of finding a long-term starter is sufficiently low that I'd strongly consider taking a shot at him there. You have to love his work ethic and attitude.

I am not in disagreement and (I) don't believe that it is "all about the QB". However, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have taken some weak defenses deep into the playoffs. If folks believe that the QB is by far the most important position on the field, then he should be able to elevate sub-par surrounding talent to better results. In direct opposition to Geno Smith, Ryan Nassib (whom many here sneer at) elevated his Syracuse team to levels that they likely couldn't have hoped for without him. Now, I am not saying that Nassib should be picked at 8 either, but the discussion is interesting. Does he have those intangible skills to get better results from his team than their talent dictates?

Cool inside info, thanks for sharing! Can your contact share why they really like Geno Smith? How do they rationalize his team finishing 2-5 in their last 7 games while he had two very highly regarded NFL prospects to throw to? I know that their defense was bad, but I'd like to think that a #1 pick QB could elevate his team to a better finish than the team's overall talent level would otherwise dictate - isn't that what the team would be expecting if they brought him in?

Are you saying that their top 5 rated players are all QBs or are you saying that is how they rank the QBs without regard to other positions?

Best of luck to him. I hope he is healthy enough to compete for a roster position.

True to an extent, but it isn't quite true that they aren't taking any shots. They have chosen instead to take their shots on other positions that they perceived had better options. Now, people can point out that they could have had Kaepernick, Dalton or Wilson, but there isn't any other QB that the "smart" money was on that was available to the Bills over the past 3 drafts that I'd have traded Spiller, Dareus or Gilmore for. Non-QBs yes, but none of the other 1st round QBs. I am in alignment with taking shots at QBs regularly in mid to late rounds until they find one. I wish that there was a really good one to nab in round 1 this year. I could even be on board with Manuel, Nassib or Wilson as early as the 8th pick IF they are really sure of their research.

And Doug Maroone was 3-0 against Geno Smith with a less talented Syracuse team...

Fergy was a good starting QB and was as tough as the day is long. I would say he was probably the 3rd best QB in franchise history behind Jim Kelly and Jack Kemp.

I think this is most true for QBs because teams reach for them due to their desperate need for them. However, I think the success rate for other positions is probably lower than many people really believe. For example, from 1992-2011 30% of #1 overall picks (very first pick in the draft) were starters in the league for < 3 years. Over that same period only 57% of top-10 picks started for 5 or more years in the league - a lot lower than most probably would have thought. The link below is to draftmetrics.com and shows data for draft picks from 1992-2011 - fun thing to look at and pretty eye-opening. http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/draftposition19922011.pdf

I am with you, but I think this poor success rate has more to do with the lack of really good NFL-calibre QBs and team's desperation to find them. I am more in the camp of spending the 8th pick on a player at another position besides QB that is expected to have a higher probability of success than the available QBs, BUT it might be that you really do have accept the low success rate and keep trying until you find one. It might be analogous to a "7 point shot" in basketball - one way way beyond the 3 point line - low percentage of making it, but if you do you score big.

I agree that there are QB prospects that could be considered equivalent prospects to those that you listed. My argument is that those players were drafted much higher than they were expected to be (at least by most information we fans are privy to) and at this point, the jury is still out on all of them. I am not saying that none of them will turn out to be good QBs, but it isn't looking positive at this point for most on that list. If you agree with my premise (that most on that list are struggling), then it is at least questionable to use their high draft positions to justify following suit. I am not completely against taking a QB in round 1, but I am not sold on any of them. Thankfully, for the team and fans I am not in position to make those decisions.

I like option 2 the best, except I'd put Glenn at RT and let Chris Hairston battle with whoever else they have to play the open OG spot. Get a guy who you have a high degree of confidence will improve your team. Improve the pass and run blocking, feed Spiller and Jackson the ball and when you do throw, at least whomever the QB is will have time to do so.

That isn't my view at all. If they think that there is a QB in this draft who will be a good-very good starter in the future, I would be thrilled to wait. But, in the NFL now QBs get tossed to the curb after 3 years if they are not good already. How long do you wait on a guy to "get it" when you aren't certain that he ever will?

If the point is to take someone whom they think can be competitive, but not great, then I agree. But where does that get them? Maybe 9-7, but not much chance of being a championship contender? To be clear, I am not totally against them taking a QB in the first or second round. I just want to believe that if they do, that they aren't just settling or taking a wild shot on someone when they could draft a higher-probability-of-success player at another position with the 8th overall selection. To take your point of view for a moment: If you had a strong conviction that the Bills could draft a perfect clone of Alex Smith or Andy Dalton at the 8th spot, would you do it? I would not if I knew it was Alex Smith - Andy Dalton would give me cause to consider it, but he still might be that middle of the road guy that is never quite good enough.

Jake Locker: 56% 10 TDs, 11 INTs Christian Ponder: 62% 18 TDs, 12 INTs - this is pretty decent, but he had the GREATEST rushing performance in NFL history to open up the passing game Brandon Weeden: 57%, 14 TDs, 17 INTs - Browns are so unsold that they are considering picking another QB high. Blaine Gabbert: 58% 9 TDs, 6 INTs Ryan Fitzpatrick: 61% 24 TDs, 16 INTs My point isn't to trash any of these QBs - one or more of them might improve, but most were not even as good as Fitz was last year. I would want better than that if I were to invest the 8th overall pick in the draft.

I think Tannehill looked OK last year,but based on what you have seen from Gabbert, Locker, Ponder (2 years each) and Weeden - do you want any of them?

If they were to draft Bray in round 3/4 and no other QB, I don't think that necessarily says that they are "all in" on Kolb. It might (likely would IMHO) mean that they just didn't think any of the QBs in the draft are prospects that justified 1st or 2nd round picks - that is, they see them all as long-shots to be good starters in the NFL. If they don't draft a QB early, I don't think the correct conclusion is that they think Kolb is the answer. Interesting view. Most analysts/scouts that I've read think that the talent pool is very shallow at QB. Don't confuse no top prospects with a deep pool of good prospects. This might be the worst set of QB prospects in a long time. I agree that there are a handful of QB prospects with some redeeming qualities including Barkley, Smith, Manuel, Nassib and maybe Wilson. BUT none of them have the "whole skillset" this year (at least based on everything I've read and seen).