OldTimer1960

I agree that his college production suggests that he is "fast enough". I don't know that he faked an injury, but it is suspicious that he didn't run at the combine, pulled up lame when realizing he was running really slowly. The biggest red flag for me will be if he doesn't run again before the draft. If he can run faster - significantly faster, then he should be chomping at the bit to do so and prove that there is no athletic reason not to believe that he can carry his college production to the NFL. As it stands now, I'd be very concerned drafting him in round 1. His 40 time was nearly a full 0.2 seconds slower than 300lb OT Lane Johnson. While I agree that pass rushing isn't necessarily about running 40 yard dashes, it is concerning that he might not have speed on his side when going against a blocker who out-weighs him by 60 lbs.

I think the Colts' entire "strategy" was that they got lucky and were able to draft Andrew Luck. Without him, they would still be horrible. Also, don't be surprised if the Colts come crashing back down to earth this year without the emotional rallying point they had last year in Chuck Pagano's health issue.

Geno Smith in the first would bum me out, but I probably wouldn't jump off a building. I like some of the things about Smith including that he is reportedly smart, by most accounts a hard worker, has a good arm and is athletic enough to make some plays with his feet. Yet (just my opinion), it seems that he should have been able to do more with his team. With 2 highly regarded NFL prospects playing WR and Smith at QB, West Virginia lost 5 games in a row and was 2-6 in their last 8 games (including their bowl loss to a less talented Syracuse team). Smith has the physical talent to be a good starting QB, but I am not seeing how he was able to elevate his team to success. I know that the team's defense was quite weak, but at least according to many here, a good QB can overcome a lack of talent in other areas of the team.

Be suspicious that he was really hurt. Perhaps he didn't run at the combine because he knew he wasn't fast. He HAD to run sometime, so he did at his pro day. He may have thought that his best chance was to feign injury while doing his run. To be clear, I do think that his productivity in the SEC speaks loudly, but not doubt the lack of speed shown has to be considered to some degree. I suspect he really is that "slow", so (to me) it seems that you better be able to tell from his game tape just how he was able to be as productive as he was in the SEC without having superior speed. Then it would be important to figure out how that will project to the NFL. We are really talking about more than hundreths of a second - actually an order of magnitude more. Von Miller was very productive in college and relied on his speed - but he ran something like a 4.4 at around 230 lbs. He is only about 10 lbs smaller than Jarvis Jones and ran nearly a half a second faster. That is the difference between some WRs and some OL. Again, does that automatically mean that Jarvis Jones won't be productive in the NFL? No, but it is something that a team needs to consider and understand. It does add risk in projecting Jones to the NFL.

He is great on Saturdays with two tremendous WRs against PAC-10 defenses. I agree that he has a "good head and shoulders". However, there is at least some legitimate concern that his arm might not be good enough to thrive in the NFL. Note that I did not say that his arm might not be "elite", but if he doesn't have at least adequate arm strength, he will have limited success in the NFL. I thought Chad Pennington would have been a top-eschelon NFL QB if he had a tad bit better arm - but he didn't and he was just middle-of-the-road who his team was always trying to replace.

Fluker is interesting, but don't they already "have him" in Cordy Glenn? I could see Lane Johnson to play LT and move Glenn to RT - then I think they'd have both good run and pass blocking. I am not a fan of Tyler Bray. He didn't light it up with two outstanding WRs in college. It is hard for me to project success for him in the NFL where he'll face better competition with likely less at WR than he had at Tennessee.

Ideally, a QB is top priority, however I don't think any of the QB crop have a high enough probability of being a good NFL starter to bother with in round 1 (round 2 and the risk/reward might be favorable). OLB is the next highest priority (IMHO). I think that Dion Jordan and Barkevious Mingo are viable high-end options, but I wouldn't take Jarvis Jones in round 1. If Dee Milliner is available, then I think they should take him. He and Gilmore could be a very very good pair. I LOVE the idea of Lane Johnson at LT and moving Glenn to RT. Create a very good OL and whomever the QB is has a chance and should help the run game (which should be the emphasis of the offense). I don't think Cordarelle Patterson or Ziggy Ansah have enough of a track record to risk taking that high. I think that the safety position is in good hands with Byrd and Searcy with the possibility that Aaron Williams could be a very good safety and beat out Searcy. No ILB interests me in round 1. No TE interests me in round 1, though could *possibly* like Tyler Eifert - but they need to believe he is the next Antonio Gates/Tony Gonzales to pick him that high. I could get behind a top DT, but I think they are set at the position with Dareus, Kyle Williams, Alex Carrington and recent signee Alan Branch. A long-shot, I know, but Torrell Troup could also contribute if healthy. If they LOVE a DE like Warner, I'd be OK with it, but think we are OK there. While I really like Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper, I think it is too high to take a OG here. I'd rather get the T (see above) and move Chris Hairston to OG. However, if they think that Warmack or Cooper REALLY would improve the running game for Spiller and Jackson, I could support that pick No RB in round 1,2, but maybe 3 on as Freddy is getting on in years.... Just my view. Note, IF they think that any of the QBs are a good gamble to become top starters, then by all means take him (whomever they think he is). I am not one who would hate Nassib, Manuel or Wilson, but would rather take whomever is left in round 2.

I think it is his age combined with his salary expectations that is the problem. If he was willing to play for pay commensurate with his declined (or perceived declined) skill level, then he'd have a job already. Teams can't afford to pay for his past-productivity in the salary cap age.

I think the Bills are looking at him as a possible 2nd round pick. It would not surprise me if he were available then. I know the arguments about how productive he was in the SEC - and that is very important. However, 4.95 in the 40 for a 6'2" 242 lb OLB who you are going to ask to rush the passer in the 3-4 is a big red flag for early in round 1. Yes, he might be productive in the NFL in spite of his speed, but then again he might not. I think it is too big of a risk for a high round 1 pick (just my $.02 worth) and I think many teams will feel the same way. I know about Terrell Suggs, but he was nearly 2" and 20 lbs heavier. In round 2, I would think the risk/reward given his productivity, would be in favor of taking him. This is similar to a highly productive college WR running a 4.7 40. Now, I know of at least one exception in that regard (Anquan Boldin), but the majority don't pan out in the NFL.

If you follow enough drafts, this is far more common than you might expect. It isn't just the "dumb Bills" who miss on early draft picks and it isn't just the "dumb" team, either. All teams miss on early picks, just ask the Broncos how happy they are that they traded back into round 1 for TIm Tebow.

THANK YOU. You are right on. The exception does not disprove a general rule.

I do not understand the aversion to corners by some on this board. Corner is a very important position, especially in the current pass-happy NFL. I understand that it appears that they misfired on Aaron Williams, but I wouldn't give up on him yet as he might be a better player at safety. Beyond that, they have drafted Stephon Gilmore in the first recently, but not a lot of other corners high in the recent past.

What is the definition of a franchise QB? Is it someone from this draft who be given a couple years as a starter, but fail to prove himself (as it looks like Blaine Gabbert is doing)? Is it someone who is an adequate middle of the NFL starter for 5 or more years? (Think someone like Matt Hasselback in his prime) Or is it that rare QB who starts for 5+ years and you are not thinking about trying to find someone better (ex: Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers...)

Relax man, nobody is attacking you. I was simply saying that just picking a QB in round 1 is not sufficient to become a good team. There are bad teams with good QBs and as you point out, there are very few good teams that don't have good QBs. You have to pick a good QB and my only disagreement with your post is that I think you need to look critically at the QB prospects rather than "just taking a shot" on one every year until you get it right. I could even buy into that philosophy, but with later picks. First round picks are very valuable. An argument can be made that you should stretch the value argument to slant towards the QB position, but that doesn't mean that you should take a QB early if you don't think they have a good chance of becoming a good starter. By all means, if the Bills think there is a QB that is likely to be a good or better starter in the NFL, I think they should take that guy at 8.

thanks for checking in ` skies are always very gray here. What would you propose they do, if you don't like what they could have done and won't like what they will do?

Luke Jockel/ Eric Fisher/ Lane Johnson - Buddy has never drafted offensive line in the first round. The highest was last year when Cordy Glenn was drafted. The Bills and especially Buddy seem to like Glenn a lot at LT besides the fact that moving him to guard as some suggested would basically make Glenn a bust for a GM who is on his way out and trying to save his legacy. ==> Nobody said that you have to move Glenn to OG if you draft Lane Johnson. I'd consider Johnson for LT and move Cordy to RT - then you have two potentially very good OTs and Wood at Center. Fill in with some half-decent OGs and you have a good OL to pass protect, and pave the way for a run-oriented OL. I'd be less interested in Warmack at OG since that still leaves marginal Erik Pears starting at RT.

I think that NE did. I could also argue that NO and Seattle did. Possibly SF, too with Kaepernick in round 2. And it is too early to conclude whether Nawrocki was right or wrong. Nawrocki was not alone in his criticism of Newton. Maybe Cam will be a long-term star, maybe not. That does not mean that Nawrocki's evaluation was inaccurate. I didn't read in there that Newton had no chance of becoming a star QB. I only read that there were some big concerns that might prevent him from doing so.

Yep, and I don't have much of a quarrel with picking them in round 3. I was mainly commenting on over-drafting a QB in rnd 1 or 2.

Not saying to not draft a QB, but rather pick one commensurate with the probability of success. In fact, I would be on-board with drafting one every year until you find one - just not "reaching" every year until you find one. The best QBs in the league seem to fall into four categories: 1. No brainers: Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers. RG3, Andrew Luck... 2, Got lucky early: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees (round 2), Russell Wilson ( round 3), Colin Kaepernick (Rnd 3), Andy Dalton (rnd 2) 3. Got lucky later: Tony Romo (undrafted), Matt Schaub (rnd 3), 4. Spent high picks and still struggling: Philly (Vick and Foles), Minn (Ponder in spite of Adrian Peterson), Chic (Jay Cutler), Det (Matt Stafford), Carolina (Cam Newton), TB (Josh Freeman), Stl: Sam Bradford), Miami (Tannehill), Jets (Sanchez), Cleveland (Weedon), Tenn (Locker), Jax (Gabbert), Oak (Palmer) Takeaways: 1. Most good QBs are drafted early, but sometimes blind luck strikes and that team is set for a long time. 2. It is definitely not sufficient to just draft a QB early in order to turn a bad team around. 3. Having a highly regarded QB is not sufficient to be a very good team. 4. Not having a good QB does relegate a team to struggle.

Let's look at the "currently successful teams" and then all teams: Washington: won the NFC East with a rookie whom almost unanimously was rated very high. GB: awesome with a QB drafted 20+ spots after Alex Smith. No one can tell me that none of the teams between 1 and GB didn't need a QB, but clearly GB's pick was substantial ATL: won NFC NFC South with highly drafted QB Matt Ryan (who many said was a "reach") SF: won NFC West with 2nd round QB NE: still riding the Tom Brady "lucky pick" in the 6th round. Baltimore: Flacco was good, but not great in Super Bowl season. He was a #1 pick. Houston: won AFC South with 3rd round pick (traded for) Matt Schaub. Questionable whether they won because of or in spite of Schaub. Denver: won AFC West with Peyton Manning, but spent #1 pick on Tim Tebow 2 years ago and 2nd on Brock Osweiller last year. Now for the "other teams" Giants: 9-7 with Eli Manning - an "elite" QB drafted #1 overall. Dallas: one game worse (8-8) with undrafted Tony Romo Philly: 4-12 with #1 draft pick Michael Vick Minnesota: 10-6 with the best rushing attack in the last decade and Christian Ponder who was drafted early round 1 (but didn't produce much) Chicago: 10-6 with Jay Cutler (#1 pick acquired via trade) Det: 4-12 with #1 pick Matt Stafford Carolina: 7-9 with #1 overall pick Cam Newton NO: 7-9 with Superstar Drew Brees TB: 7-9 with #1 pick Josh Freeman Seattle: 11-5 with 3rd round pick Russell Wilson (while high priced FA Matt Flynn sat and trade acquisition Charlie Whitehurst was gone) Stl: 7-8-1 with #1 pick Sam Bradford Arizona: 5-11 with Kolb/Skelton running for their lives Miami: 7-9 with #1 pick Ryan Tannehill Jets: 6-10 with #1 pick Mark Sanchez Buffalo: 6-10 with undrafted FA Ryan Fitzpatrick Cinci: 10-6 with #2 pick Andy Dalton Pitt: 8-8 with #1 pick Ben Roethlisberger Cleveland: 5-11 with #1 Brandon Weedon and #3 Colt McCoy Indy: 11-5 with #1 overall Andrew Luck Tenn: 6-10 with #1 pick Jake Locker Jax: 2-14 with #1 pick Blaine Gabbert SD: 7-9 with #1 pick Philip Rivers Oak: 4-12 with #1 pick Carson Palmer KC: 2-14 with very late pick Matt Cassell Conclusions (mine): 1. MOST good QBs are drafted in round 1. 2. A round 1 QB is not sufficient to be a good team 2a. 22 of 32 teams had a former #1 QB starting, yet many of those teams were not very good. It is not sufficient to wish/hope/pray that a highly drafted QB will turn around a struggling franchise. Even some very very promising young QBs (Cam Newton for example) are not "winning" without decent support from their teammates. It is at least debatable whether any of the QBs in this draft will ever be good enough at the NFL level to elevate an otherwise weak team to the playoffs.

Both have cannon arms and need a "little" coaching - just as JP Losman did. If it was as simple as finding a guy with a strong arm and just "coaching him up", then every team would have a great QB. Go ask teams what they think of Derek Anderson.

I am certain that Profootballweekly had some good things to say about Smith. They are one of the good (IMHO) draft information sources as they have a lot of connections with NFL teams. I would not be at all surprised if Smith is not the first QB drafter (or even the 2nd).

Unfortunately, that is what you will get (a highly drafted rookie who becomes a journeyman) in this draft. The view that the Bills must take a QB in round 1 or 2 is the same view of the "horney husband" hoping that some rookie in a bad class will be better than whomever is available already in the NFL.

Love the signing, not because Kolb is a likely long-term starter, but because he may not be any worse than any QB in this draft. Kolb, with a decent OL and running game could be serviceable. Draft the Lane Johnson at OLT and move Cordy Glenn to RT, move Chris Hairston to Levitre's spot and feed Spiller, Jackson the ball. When you do have to pass, Kolb will get pretty good protection with Johnson at LT and Glenn at RT with Wood in the middle.

I completely agree with the argument that if a team thinks a QB has a good chance to be very good in the NFL, then they should take him in round 1, regardless of the point in round 1. That is, if the Bills think any of these QBs have a good chance to be a good or better starter, then that should not hesitate taking them at #8. I fully agree that with the exception of recent examples Dalton, Kaepernick and Wilson, that it is very rare to find a very good starting QB outside of round 1. However, I think that teams need to be very cautious to not over-draft a QB into the first round due to desperate need. I try to be optimistic, too. But I think the logical explanation for not resigning David Nelson is that he is still very injured. As far as I know, no other team has swooped in and signed him, either. I think that is evidence that his injury is what is keeping teams away (he was pretty productive before being injured).