OldTimer1960

I do 4,000 lbs on one leg just for warm ups. Then I get reAlly insane - wimpy pro athletes!

I also like what I've read/seen about Swope. I think Robert Woods would be a great addition, but agree that he likely won't be available when the Bills' 2nd pick comes up.

We are pretty much in agreement then on this. I just don't want the Bills' desperate need for a good starting QB to cause them to over-inflate their opinion on Smith or any other QB. I could accept it if they determined that there just aren't any good QB options this year and focused on improving other positions.

Dibbs, I love your analysis and effort. I think that your investigation was quite thorough. I am just not sure that the conclusion is fully solid. While I agree that most good starting QBs will be drafted in round 1 (and fairly early), (I am sure that you know) that is not the same as saying that over-drafting a QB in round 1 gives that player a good shot at becoming a good starting QB in the NFL. I will acknowledge that things are changing recently in the NFL and more young QBs are showing signs of success, but draft history is full of failed QBs that were over-drafted by QB-starved teams including: David Klingler (6) Tommy Maddox (25) Rick Mirer (2) Heath Shuler (3) Trent Dilfer (6) Kerry Collins (5) Ryan Leaf (2) Tim Couch (1) Akili Smith (3) Daunte Culpepper (11) Cade McNown (12) Chad Pennington (18) David Carr (1) Joey Harrington (3) Patrick Ramsey (32) Byron Leftwich (7) Kyle Boller (19) Rex Grossman (22) JP Losman (22) Alex Smith (1) Jason Campbell (25) Vince Young (3) Matt Leinart (10) Jamarcus Russell (1) Brady Quinn (22) Mark Sanchez (5) Tim Tebow (25) I stopped the list at 2010 as some of the 2011-2012 guys who are struggling may come on. Yes, there were a handful of good/great QBs drafted early over that range of years (1998-2010), but the list of less-than-successful early picks is much longer. Here is the list of (very liberally rated) successes as I see it: Peyton Manning (1) Donovan McNabb (2) Michael Vick (1) Carson Palmer (1) Eli Manning (1) Philip Rivers (4) Ben Roethlisberger (11) Aaron Rodgers (24) Jay Cutler (11) Matt Ryan (3) Joe Flacco (18) Matt Stafford (1) Josh Freeman (17) Sam Bradford (1) To be sure, there were some good QBs drafted after round 1, but the success rate was more dismal. From round 1 1998-2010 (13 years), I count 14 marginal to excellent starters and 27 very bad selections. I haven't done the numbers, but I bet that there are much better odds of success with some other positions (like OT, DE, DT). I am not sure what to conclude other than that a team should keep taking QBs yearly (or nearly yearly) until they find a good one. That doesn't necessarily mean in round 1 where the risk/reward is pretty high. I would conclude that the desperate need for QBs causes teams to overlook serious deficiencies in some prospects.

I am not against EJ Manuel, but he hasn't played in much bad weather having played at Fla St.

The highlighted is the only argument that I have with your post. It isn't because I think that Barkley is a great prospect, but rather to argue that he is a poor prospect because other USC QBs have failed. By that logic, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady would be no good because their predecessors at their respective schools were not good NFL QBs.

For the 8th overall pick? I am not saying that Christian Ponder will never improve, but the Vikings wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs had Adrian Peterson not had one of the greatest seasons ever for a RB.

332 attempts 433 completions 34 TDs 8 Ints; That was Colt McCoy's Jr season in a much better conference that Geno Smith played in. I am not saying that Smith is Colt McCoy - he has a stronger arm, but isn't much bigger, has very small hands (FWIW) and had far fewer Ws in his career. Jason Campbell completed 70% of his passes as a SR with a 3-1 TD-INT ratio in a GREAT conference. I *like* Geno Smith and think he has a chance to be a decent to good starting QB in the NFL. I just don't know if the likelihood of him being an above average starter is high enough to justify drafting him with the 8th pick. Never mind what the probability of him being a top 10 NFL QB would be..... I can align, to some extent, with the "we've got to have a QB that is better than Ryan Fitzpatrick" argument, but it all comes down to how strongly the Bills' professional scouts believe that he can be a good enough NFL QB to make them competitive in the playoffs. If they think there is a pretty good chance that he'll become that good, then by all means use the 8th pick in the draft on him. If not, then take someone at another position who has a better probability of being very good at their position.

He has missed a fair amount of games the last 2 years due to injury. He is also getting up there in age for cornerbacks. Yes, I know that there are some very rare exceptions that play into their mid-30s at CB, but not many.

I agree with you. I expect some players like this to be signed. Chase Daniels is interesting, but he really has no track record at all, other than preseason. He has thrown 9 passes in 4 regular seasons in the NFL, but I suppose based on his preseason performances, he could be of some interest to a QB-starved team in a year where there are more questions than answers in the draft.

+1

I believe that there traits that are more important than others, yet are more difficult to judge than others. I do not claim to be a pro scout, I often even say so in my posts. I think that the question I have with Smith is why wasn't he able to elevate his team more this year? He (based on what I am reading and saw in, admittedly limited, viewing) didn't show great leadership and ability to "right the ship" when things started going badly for his team. FWIW, I like that Smith is smart, well spoken and a hard worker by all accounts I've seen. I just hear too many questions to think that he is a better selection than one of the higher rated players at other positions that will be available to the Bills at the 8th pick.

Huh? Locker and Ponder are open to debate still, but I think it is pretty clear that Tebow, Clausen and Sanchez were not worth the early picks spent on them. I don't see how these mistakes suggest that it is a good idea to draft Geno Smith early. Just because some folks pay over market value for some assets, does not mean that it is a good investment.

This is NOT a compelling argument to draft Smith. To argue that Smith would have been drafted ahead of Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Tebow, Clausen and Sanchez is ZERO reason to take Smith with the 8th pick in this draft. Would ANY of those players make the Bills a playoff contender? I don't think it is a stretch to say no. Now, if you want to argue that Geno Smith will, almost by himself, make this team a playoff contender, then there is a case to be made to pick Geno Smith with the 8th pick.

Except that he would be playing against much better opposition than he faced at Syracuse.

I am not sure that I understand. Are you saying that the "hit" or "miss" rate wasn't a factor in determining which teams were good and which teams were consistently bad? It seems to me, that it would be a huge factor. Further, in addition to the luck of who is available when you are picking high, I wonder if some of the discrepancies with regard to positions selected are related to the evolution of the game. As the passing game becomes more important, DBs, DEs and rush LBs would logically seem to become more important. It may be that the "old guard" talent evaluators were slow to realize this and failed to adjust as quickly as the rest of the league. Also, I suspect that what position is drafted early depends on just how bad a team is. For example, the most basic and safe offense is a running game. If a team's defense is so awful against the run that opponents can generally win with a basic/safe run, run, run offense, then that (bad) team has little choice but to try to bolster their run D (eg by drafting run stopping DL or LBs). It isn't until that team can at least put up some resistance against the opponents' run game that pass rush and DBs really enter the equation.

The profile of LBs is changing as the game becomes more and more pass happy. While Scott is smaller than the run-stopping LBs of a few years ago, he is a pretty good fit in a league where teams pass a lot more than they used to.

Very interesting analysis. I do wonder how the available talent to teams picking in the top of the draft affects their selections (should be obvious). I would suggest that some of the differences between dumbass and average/SB teams is the luck of the draw of who was available when they were picking early. While I am not prepared to prove it statistically, I am fairly certain that not all drafts are created equal - indeed, I believe that drafts vary by a lot in terms of the quality/quantity of the top talent and what positions they play. I'd bet that some of the "dumbass" teams are victims of circumstances and some of the SB teams were lucky recipients of drafting high when a slam-dunk obvious pick at an important position was available.

I'm with you. If the Bills don't like any of the QBs in this draft as much as they like Daniels and Daniels comes cheap, then no harm in seeing what he's got. I know some want a QB in the draft because "anyone has to be better than Fitz", but to me that isn't sufficient reason to cut Fitz and spend a high pick on one of those guys. The Bills must think a rookie in the 1st or 2nd has a significant chance of being a good starter in order to justify expending such a high pick. With the 8th pick, the Bills should be able to get a very good starter at some position. In round 2, you hope to get a good long-term starter at some position. No justification for selecting a QB with either pick if they don't think he'll be a good enough starter to get them into playoff contention no matter how frustrated folks are with Fitz. It might just be that there are no good QB alternatives this year. I leave that to the pro scouts to figure out.

I know that this is obvious, but it depends on how much better the OL prospect is than the prospects available at positions of need. I certainly agree that LB, WR and QB are greater needs. However, if the Bills' scout don't think there is a good starting QB (this year or in the future) available and they don't like the WRs/LBs (and the top LBs have lots of questions Jones: neck health, Ogletree: off field issues, Dion Jordan: size/strength, Moore: big questions about strength...), then I can't fault them for strengthening a position of lesser need.

I think it is possible that the few sacks allowed were more of a function of the very short passing game and Fitz getting rid of the ball very quickly than it was an indication that the Bills' OL was that great at pass blocking. While I am not arguing that the Bills' OL was awful, I am suggesting that they knew that they had limited talent at RT and perhaps RG and they masked it with quick passes. For at least a suggestion of evidence for this theory, I point to the number of starters that missed games due to injury (including RT, RG, C) and the continued "success" pass blocking. The fact that Fitz has limitations regarding medium and deep throws also played into the quick passing attack. However, IMHO, if the Bills were to get a QB with a stronger arm/better mid-deep accuracy, the OL might get exposed when trying to pass block for longer. I'd be all on-board for a very good OT, especially if Levitre leaves in free agency. Lots of things to consider when projecting FA and draft, but I could definitely see a case for a top OT in the draft....

If they opt not to resign Levitre, I would hope that the reason would be to use the money that would have been spent on Levitre on a FA (or more) for other positions. I wouldn't like to think that they just wouldn't spend that money at all.

$3M or $7M this year, either way it isn't in the upper tier of QB pay by a long-shot. I think that many here are over-board in their criticism of the "HUGE" contract that the Bills signed Fitz to. Fitz' contract places him on the lower end of pay for starting QBs - about commensurate with his production. Now, if one wants to quibble that he is still over-paid, I wouldn't argue, but the Bills had a strategy to build the rest of the team (with focus on D) and "live' with Fitz until a better option could be had. Of course, the D hasn't played to the level expected, but I do think that there is a good level of talent there to be harvested by better coaching. While Levitre is a very good player, he is going to command $8+M per year on the open market. You can't just shell out that kind of jack without considering what else you could buy for a similar of just a bit higher price. What if they could get 2 decent starting LBs for that same price? What if they could get a very good starting RT for 25% more? Would either of those options be better than re-signing Levitre? To be clear, I think Levitre has done everything that they've asked at a high level. He deserves to make a very good buck in FA. Whether he is the Bills' best option this year is open for debate.

My belief is that there is not a high-probability-of-success QB in this draft, so I could be aligned with this sort of plan. I *might* consider Matt Barkley at #8 in round one, but I see that as a gamble. I am not at all sold on Geno Smith. I suspect that one of the following will be available when the Bills pick in round 2: Ryan Nassib, EJ Manuel, Tyler Wilson. IMHO, each is worthy of consideration there. I am not sure if I'd prefer Matt Moore to one of those, but I suppose that they could sign Moore and still pick one of those 3. Regarding a trade down, it usually is worth considering. However, if they have convinced themselves that they don't need to "reach" for a QB in round 1, they should be able to get a very good player at another position with the 8th pick.

Brandon Myers - or any other FA TE or any other TE in this year's draft? Myers hasn't proven a lot except that he can catch a pretty good number of passes in a year on a bad team that was frequently coming from behind and had fast, but not very good, WRs. I wouldn't be opposed to signing Myers, but not for a ton of money. It could be argued that he is an "ascending" player, but I would not bet the farm on his one good year.