OldTimer1960

None of them have ANY trade value right now until they show that they can play at the NFL level - and then you want to keep them.

My opinion is: 1. Give Manuel a lot of work in training camp and pre-season games, while having Kolb as the starter. 2. Do not put Manuel in a regular season game unless/until the coaching staff is very sure that he has a strong grasp of the offense. My reasoning: 1. Manuel has a lot of attributes that suggest that he could become a longterm good starting QB and I would not want to see his confidence ruined by playing before he is ready. 1a. After years of losing, the fan base has little patience and could turn on him quickly 2. I like Robert Woods and hold out hope that TJ Graham can become a decent contributor, but it often takes WRs 2-3 years to really become productive in the NFL and, aside from Stevie Johnson, all of their WR options are very young and inexperienced. Couple that with a big question mark at TE and you have a bad situation to put a rookie QB into.

If the Bills were going to take a chance on a QB in this draft, then I think Manuel was a very good option. Things we know about Manuel: 1. Big 2. Fast 3. Strong arm 4. Intelligent (graduated in Dec 2011 while playing D1 college ball is quite an accomplishment; has started his Masters degree) Things reported about Manuel: 1. He was a good leader at FSU 2. He "gets it", has a very good attitude & work ethic Things we don't know: 1. Will he be able to process what he sees and make the very quick decisions that he will need to in order to have success in the NFL? 2. Can he improve his mechanics and accuracy? (He hit a high percentage of his passes, but was reportedly a little wild when he didn't set up properly). Seems to me, that he has a lot of the right skills. Regarding the "things we don't know", almost all QBs entering the NFL from college have the same question as #1.

It also has to do with the level of competition. Roethlisberger and Flacco didn't play against stellar competition, so you can't just judge based on whether their WRs were drafted or not. Luck had Coby Fleener (TE #34 overall), Zach Ertz (TE #35 overall), Levine Toiolo (TE 4th round) to throw to. I am not sure if he had any highly thought of WRs, but he also had Stephon Taylor (RB) who was drafted this year, too. RG III had Terrance Williams (WR round 3 in 2013) and Kendall Wright (#20 overall in 2012) to throw to. I don't know if any of FSU's young WRs will be drafted early next year or in 2015, but they sure aren't household names now. I do agree with the general premise that a QB can make their WRs better (to some extent) - see Tom Brady. However, I also believe that great WRs can make their QB look good.

So, what exactly do you believe "analytics" to be? Do you think that it is something akin to "gee, players with fast 40 yd. dash times are good"? I am confident that it is more about which positions are most important and which positions are worth paying very high salaries for. I think that they exercised "pre-analytics" logic when they determined that they could not justify paying Levitre (an OG) $8MM/yr. Yes, I do think that it might also include things like: QBs with hand size greater than X have a higher probability of success in the NFL, if they play in the Northeast.... None of this "analytics" is going to be hard and fast rules. It is based on tendencies, trends, rules of thumb. Even with analytics, you still have humans evaluating humans with uneven experience levels. It will never be perfect.

Means absolutely nothing. FWIW, I like Kiper as he was the first of the "draft gurus" that I followed and I bought his book for many years. I just don't think he (or even the NFL teams) know everything. For instance, he certainly hasn't met with many of the players or talked with their college coaches to get the "deep scoop". He does have asccess to many of their game tapes - and I believe that he does study those, but that does not necessarily mean that his evaluations are definitive.

No OL - IMHO means that they drafted into the strength of what was left available after the early run on OL. Because of the early OL run, they were able to pick the QB that they preferred and still got a very high-end prospect at WR in round 2. As a bonus, they were able to nab an athletic LB who may give them coverage ability downfield against some of the top TEs in the league. Goodwin certainly has the physical talent to warrant his selection in round 3. Even if he develops into a solid kick returner and a dangerous niche player on offense, the pick was worth it. He may have a lot of upside given his world-class athletic ability and the fact that he never benefitted from NCAA spring practices due to his track commitments.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. I really like the Robert Woods pick. He is, by many accounts, NFL-ready and I believe that he'll have a good rookie year. Don't confuse that with his best year, as most rookie WRs require a year or two to learn the NFL game. I am warming up to the Marquise Goodwin pick. At first, I was put-off by his less-than-impressive production in college, but now that I realize that he missed every very important Spring practice in college to run track, I think that there is some significant upside. I think he has the ability to make an impact with his speed on end-around runs and screens with some medium range receptions also. I still have high-hopes for TJ Graham (at least I haven't written him off), so I think the two of these guys will split time and hopefully contribute, with Graham likely to play a bigger role this year. Da'Rick Rogers certainly has physical talent. He performed at a high-level in the SEC before being booted from the Tennessee team. Before we get too giddy, please consider how much of a f***up he had to be (with his talent level) to get kicked off the Tennessee team. I think that he was very well workth the UDFA signing, given his physical talent, but there are reasons (probably several) that NO team selected him in the draft, despite his size, speed, production against SEC competition... If they can get Stevie some help from Graham, Woods and Goodwin, then any contributions from Rogers is a bonus.

Russ Lande's view: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/college_player_scouting_report.html&player=38468 ProFootballWeekly also had good things to say about him. Hey, he's a 7th round pick. He lacks size, but his redeeming quality is speed. Perhaps the Bills got lucky that he was injured last year - without the injury he might've gone higher. As with all late picks, more suspect than prospect.

One of the PAC-10 coaches (think he is the Stanford coach) is on NFLN now and he really was very positive on the Bills' draft. He was very high on Robert Woods and Kiko Alonso. He thinks that Alonso could be a Pro Bowler and that Woods will make big plays regardless of his lack of dynamic speed.

After doing more investigation, I am warming up to the pick. Clearly, extremely fast. I now understand that he might have some more to learn/grow than most prospects since he missed most of Spring practices with Texas while running track. At worst, he can get a few touches a game and be a very speedy decoy on lots of plays to open up the field. Just the threat of him running an end around with Spiller going the other way will have to worry defenses. It would be great if he can develop as a WR and be a good #3 option with great speed. Hopefully, he can help on kick returns, but his small size won't let him run through many tackles on returns.

Some video links:

Some videos of him at bleacherreport

Agreed, if he wins the kicking job he will likely have more impact than anybody else they could have picked in round 6 (yes, there are some great 6th round picks like Tom Brady, but by and large the odds of finding someone who makes your team for even a few years are pretty long).

K Dustin Hopkins - NCAA scoring leader for K. Supposed to have good leg strength and good accuracy. I didn't expect a kicker. I guess they are pretty disenchanted with the "kickoff specialist" that they had brought in last year.

I am very surprised with them picking 2 safeties. I know that Pettine likes to play extra safeties sometimes, but I thought with Byrd, Searcy and Williams at Safety, they might be OK with just one additional pick there. I am thinking that they aren't very high one at least one of Searcy or Williams if they are adding two safeties in the draft - neither of whom were particularly highly regarded by "the experts". But, 5th round on is where you get a number of these off-the-radar guys. Teams are looking for guys who might be able to contribute in some way, particularly on special teams. All of these guys are more suspect than prospect, but have one or more redeeming qualities (at least in the eyes of the team that drafts them).

Thanks. Found that also. Sounds very strong at 23 reps. Likely special teams possibility. If he can't cover, he probably can't play in the NFL. I am very surprised with them picking 2 safeties. I know that Pettine likes to play extra safeties sometimes, but I thought with Byrd, Searcy and Williams at Safety, they might be OK with just one additional pick there. I am thinking that they aren't very high one at least one of Searcy or Williams if they are adding two safeties in the draft - neither of whom were particularly highly regarded by "the experts". But, 5th round on is where you get a number of these off-the-radar guys. Teams are looking for guys who might be able to contribute in some way, particularly on special teams. All of these guys are more suspect than prospect, but have one or more redeeming qualities (at least in the eyes of the team that drafts them).

He was a pre-draft visitor of the Bills. Big and strong (23 reps at 225), 4.55 (est), 33" vert. Apparently pretty smart as he graduated in December, which is saying something when playing major college football. Likely seen as a possible special teams contributor.

Swope would be interesting Boy, he (Jonathan Meeks) is WAY off the radar. Can't find anything on him...

He has been in trouble a ton of times. It isn't just a one-two time thing with Rogers. However, in round 5 he may be worth the gamble...

Certainly those two address needs... (Poyer and Furstenburg).

Interesting players remaining on the board: RB: Stephon Taylor (Stan), Andre Ellington (Clem) - would have loved to nab Marcus Lattimore, but SF just selected him. These two guys could be nice additional RBs. OL: Oday Aboushi, David Quessenberry, Luke Marquardt - interesting guys who might be able to carve a niche as versatile multi-position backups. DL: Jesse Williams (NT Alabama), Brandon Jenkins (DE FSU), "Q" Smith - Surprised the hulking Williams is still available, teams apparently don't like him as much as the analysts did. Brandon Jenkins and "Q" Smith are pass rush specialists. Smith is particularly interesting with high production. CB: Think Jordan Poyer is still available. TE: Matt Furstenburg (Maryland), Chris Gragg (Ark) - both undersized, but fairly fast pass catching TE prospects LB: Michael Mauti (Penn St) - would likely have been selected by now, but has significant injury history. QB: Would they take Tyler Bray or Zac Dysert as possible long-term backups? I don't think they would, but Bray (especially) has great physical talent. Overall: I expect another pick on defense, but not sure who. I think Western Kentucky's Quantarus Smith would be interesting as a pass rush specialist.

I agree on Lattimore, but it depends on whether their doctors think he will every recover fully.

Might be good value to nab another RB prospect with Fred Jackson aging. Some good ones to look for include: Andre Ellington Jonathan Franklin Marcus Lattimore (would be a nice gamble, I think) Stephon Taylor On the OL, my favorites left are: Barrett Jones Brian Schwenke Oday Aboushi David Quessenberry Luke Marquardt CB is still a need: Jordan Poyer BW Webb LBs available include: Khaseem Greene Kevin Reddick Michael Mauti DL: Jesse Williams NT Alabama is available Brandon Jenkins (DE Fla St) - was injured this year and Tank Carradine took his spot Quanteres Smith - good pass rusher I would strongly consider another QB with lots still available Matt Barkley Ryan Nassib Tyler Wilson Tyler Bray Landry Jones I don't think all could be good long-term backups that could become starters. I think they'd take another WR, but Quinton Patton is well regarded (at least according to what I've read) It would be nice to get a TE prospect, but pickings look slim to me. One guy to watch might be Maryland's Matt Furstenburg who is fast, but not very big. My $.02 worth: I'd strongly consider one of the Centers (Jones or Schwenke) or one of the RBs (particularly Franklin or Ellington who is very fast).

I could see them drafting another QB as early the 4th. There are still decent QB prospects there. I wouldn't be upset to see them take any of Tyler Wilson, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Landry Jones, Tyler Bray or Zac Dysert or Matt Scott soon. They all have a chance to be good backup QBs with a chance to be more, especially Barkley (IMHO).