billsfan89

Mitch is obviously a flawed QB. Or else he wouldn't be a primary backup for the second time in his career. I do think he got a bit of a "raw deal" with the Steelers as he did get hurt and he had some really bad supporting casts. The WR's were bad and the offensive lines mediocre, even the RB Harris is solid but not dynamic. But Mitch obviously wasn't able to elevate the teams play and looked bad at times. However, find me a backup QB around his age with his kind of level of experience and relative success? You could do a lot worse.

I think Mitch is actually a good backup, I think he is probably a top 10 backup. Mitch as a starter is 31-26 which for a 57 game starter being 5 games above .500 is solid. His career TD to INT ratio is 72-48 which is pretty good (with 13 rush TD's to 11 lost fumbles). He's also started two playoff games including a game in 2018 where he threw for 300 yards on 60% completion percentage and no turnovers. Granted he's 0-2 in the playoffs but he's at least has some experience there. Mitch is also only about to be 30 so he's still a fairly young player too. I don't think there are many backups in the league with that kind of experience and relative success in the league who aren't that old. Obviously Mitch has his flaws or he wouldn't be a firm backup but as a backup the Bills couldn't really do much better. A fairly young QB with decent levels of success and a hefty amount of experience is about as much as you can expect from a backup QB. I do think the Bills could try to maybe draft a QB in the late rounds to try and develop, but I think given that the team only carries two QB's they probably want a vet backup to Josh.

The Jets are the second best team in the division. New England is a year away, new coach, rookie QB, lackluster offensive supporting cast, and just a team looking like a 5-6 win team. Miami is weaker on both sides of the line of scrimmage. They Fins in my opinion are unlikely to get another fully healthy season out of Tua and they lost their best interior players on both sides of the ball while also having their two best edge rushers coming off late season ACL tears. I think the Fins regress 2-3 wins to a 8-9 win team. The Jets still in my opinion have a strong defense and offensively on paper they have a lot of talent. BUT their offensive talent is old/injury prone. There's also the chance for some regression in the defense with some of their players being older but I think they should still have a top 10 defense with reasonable injury luck. Offensively though I don't think they are gonna be consistent especially later in the season. Their QB is entering his age 41 season and coming off an Achilles tear. But even beyond Rodgers the Jets are also counting on an older pair of offensive tackles in a 33 year old Morgan Moses and 34 year old Tyron Smith who hasn't played a fully healthy season since 2015. Even at WR they added Mike Williams who while at 30 is not that old for a WR Williams is coming off an ACL tear in 2023 and a banged up season in 2022. So that's their top two offensive tackles and their WR2 that are older injury prone players. They did add Fashanu and Corley in the draft but I think they are still counting on a lot of older injury prone players. If they lose 2 out of 3 between Smith/Morgan/Williams that's gonna cause some issues. Overall I think the Jets will start off hot at 5-2 or 4-2 but fade down the stretch. I do think they can win 10 games but I think the Bills will win 11 again as while the Bills are retooling the Bills loss of "big names" has been massively overstated.

Once again the company will pass any of the bad renting costs (bad tenants and repairs) onto you and they will take a 12-15% cut off your revenue along with all sorts of fees. Tack that on top of property tax, repair costs, and Misc costs and vacant months between tenants the return is vastly lower than many think. To the point where your return would have been far greater and less stressful if you just invested into an index fund.

That is very interesting to note that the Bills got bigger at WR after stating how much their QB like shifter WR’s. In regards to Keon Coleman I think him being such an endearing personality has helped people like or at least want to like the pick more and more. I think what really made me like the pick more was the behind the scenes video during the combine where he talked about learning the offense line protections so that he can understand and react to the QB better. Seeing how much of a film junkie he actually is made me realize he’s got a lot of tools to work with he just needs to put it together

Gonna have to deal with renters and not everyone is a good tenant. And if someone’s renting according to stats the maintenance goes up. It’s a big hassle to deal with all that stuff. And if you farm that out to a management company that’s gonna take a huge percentage out from your return

Hines was a very good returner and a very good niche "scat back" but the Bills were able to find a good returner (hopefully) with Hardy in the draft and Ty Johnson I think is a much better RB. Johnson isn't as fast but he's a very good receiver, has some speed, and has more power ability. Johnson overall is a more well rounded back even if he is not as fast as Hines. With Davis they have a very good all around back who I think just really complements what Cook and Johnson do.

No they shouldn't trust Bass, they should have an at least decent kicker plan B option in camp.

Lots of interesting storylines the battles in camp are gonna be fun. 1- WR - Whose gonna emerge here? Shakir and Samuel should occupy 2 of the top 3 spots but that other WR “Top 3” spot is wide open as is the WR4 spot. Coleman, MVS, Hollins, and Claypool/Hamler will all be in the mix for those key spots. 2- Center - McGovern is holding it down but will Van Pran get a hold of it and if so will they consider kicking McGovern back out to guard and Edwards to the bench/jumbo OT role again? Or does Van Pran need a year of seasoning? Will Alec Anderson or Clapp be in the mix as well? Lots to play out in that battle. 3- Ray Davis vs. Ty Johnson at RB2 is also very interesting to me. Davis is a good mid round pick but Ty produced well in a role last year. Good to have this be a battle for Cooks backup. 4- How much are they gonna use Knox and how will they use him. Two TE sets are gonna be aplenty in the offense but just how high are the gonna go percentage wise with two TE’s? Also will they use Knox as a full back and in other creative ways for some snaps here or there? 5- Rapp/Bishop is another quality battle. Rapp has a lot of starting experience including being on a Super Bowl winner with the Rams he also has a year in the Bills system. He has flaws as a player but is still a capable starter. Bishop is a high draft pick whose tools fit what the Bills like but he’s gonna have an adjustment period most likely. How quickly do they throw Bishop in the fire? Do they ease him into a role situationally or does he showcase enough to warrant heavy starter snaps out the gate? Lots of other battles on the roster D-Line is a crowded field as well as is back up LB. Outside of a unproven WR core this team has a very good overall roster just have to hope they can piece together a good enough WR core and get the TE combo to be highly productive

I will say just over at 11-12. I think the Bills always want to avoid Josh having to run a lot as a means to preserve him long term. But given the Bills ball possession style offense I think they are aiming for I think they will be in short yardage situations where they will have a lot of QB sneaks and other running situations for Josh to be called upon.

The Bills do not functionally have 10 million or so in cap space. The Bills need to account for in season emergencies (Which they like to have about 3-4 million for) and the practice squad (which yes does count and usually requires a 4 million reserve). So the Bills have after the PS about 6 million in space which will cover in season contingencies and a possible trade deadline acquisition (which you can get more for less in season in terms of absorbing cap space.) TLDR: Bills are gonna use that space for the Practice Squad, in season emergency space, and flexibility to make a move at the trade deadline.

Gotta corner the market on Connor McGovern's... On a more serious note I wouldn't hate the Bills actually signing him on a minimum deal. McGovern was a pretty solid center in Denver and for a few years with the Jets. He had a bad season with the Jets in 2023 but he's only 31 and has a ton of experience. The Bills could do worse than "kicking" the tires on him to compete for a 9th/10th offensive line spot.

I would say over if mostly healthy. I think Groot gets about 7-10 sacks, AJE gets 6-8, and Von gets 6-8. That’s 19-26 sacks so I think they would need to all hit the bottom of the range to get to 19.

They got off Diggs contract because they didn't want to be saddled with a veteran who was making a lot of money and underperforming. Bosa has two years left on his reworked deal with a hefty cap number for 2025. He's also not been very healthy the past two seasons and while not super old for his position he is about to be 29 which isn't "young" either. The Bills are going to probably approach 2025 with making a trade for a player whose 25-27 and will be locked into their prime for the next 4+ years or continue to build cheap young players through the draft and "spread out" their cap space to plug whatever holes are needed with mid-level to upper mid-level free agents. Personally I am interested to see how this years rookie class plays out. If Bishop and SVPG plug into starting roles effectively and Coleman and Carter have nice impacts as "rotational starters" and the mid to lower round guys plug into niche roles well (Hardy as a returner, Ulo as a ST ace, Davis as a backup RB, and Solomon as a rotational back end DE) then I don't see why the Bills wouldn't continue to plug in draft choices and save most of their space to retain players down the line. But we will have to see what the holes on the roster are short and long term after this season.

Worst case scenario Ariza is an All-Pro punter and the Bills have a decent to below average punter. The top punters in the league usually have a net punting average of 44-45 yards while your average punter has 42-43. That 2-3 yards per net punt is not insignificant but also not likely to be the difference in how each teams season turns out either. I think what fans fear is Ariza having those highlight reel 60+ yard punts and the Bills just having a competent regular punter. But as others have pointed out on the flip side Ariza wasn't even the top punter selected in his draft. His net punting average in college was lower than the guy who came after him and is the current Bills punter. The scouting report on him was that despite having an insanely strong leg he doesn't do a great job of pinning teams in deep which cuts down on his effectiveness as pretty much if you are punting from your own 30ish yardline and beyond (which is where about half of all punts take place) then having a player whose very likely to kick touchback of have too low a punt is going to cut down on net yards.

I can’t hate on players who try hard but just aren’t talented or got hurt. The one thing you can control is effort so I only truly dislike “lazy” players. Some players in no particular order come to mind. 1- Marcel Dareus- Tremendous physical athlete who came in as a good starter his first two seasons then he balled out completely in 2013 and especially in 2014. Once he got paid after 2014 he declined a lot and that was by all accounts very unmotivated and lazy. 2- Mike Williams - Kind of similar to Dareus but he never got that motivation to get a big contract. A very high draft pick that was just burnt on a player who didn’t play hard. 3- JP Losman - Lots of potential but there was a lot of issues with him seemingly lacking motivation and work ethic at times.

This does beg the question of what is the value of "the best punter in the league" or even the best punter of all time. We all know there's very good value in having a quality punter. Badly handled snaps or even shanked kicks are equivalent to turnovers. These numbers come from chat GPT but seem reasonably accurate. In 2021 The net average NFL punt had a net of about 41.4 yards The highest net average for any punter for a single season was 46 yards set in 2016 by Johnny Hekker If you had a punter who averaged a net of 48 yards a punt that would be by far the greatest of all time eclipsing the highest net ever by 2 yards. Only .3% of punts are ever returned for TD's. About 8% of punts are returned for more than 20 yards. That means the greatest punter of all time would give you an average of 6.6 yards per punt over the average punter and about 3ish yards over the top punters in the league in terms of net yards. Assuming with this hypothetical punter you never get the following. A botched snap. A big return of more than 20 yards or a TD return A shanked punt (all punts gain at least a 35 yard net) What is the true value of that extra net and lack of disastrous plays? What type of cap dollars would that player command? Justin Tucker is the top paid kicker at about 6 million a season while the top paid punter is currently getting about 3.6 million. I would say this type of imaginary player would probably get 4.5-5 million a season.

Serious question, If Dallas signs Dak to an extension does that 40 million in dead cap still count?

Thanks for the breakdown, I wasn't sure why they couldn't have gotten him on the exempt list but this explanation makes sense. I also think the Bills may have not even wanted to carry him on the exempt list as players on the exempt list still count against the cap and having two punters (even both on modest to small contracts) on your cap isn't always an efficient use of cap. But I do think had they had the option they could have considered it.

There's a reason despite having one of the strongest legs coming out of college as we have ever seen that he wasn't the top punter selected. Now don't get me wrong the Bills going into the 2022 draft needed a punter and the Bills took Ariza fairly low at the top end of round 6, so I loved the selection. But he had flaws as a prospect. As much value as a powerful punting leg has especially when well inside your own 30 has, about half or more punts come in situations where you are looking to pin a player inside the 20. A punter who has trouble doing that is going to cost you a lot of yards in touchbacks. I still would have loved to have seen Ariza on the team in 2022 and beyond but they cut him so he could focus on his legal issues. Glad things worked out for him on KC.

I would be shocked if KC doesn't bring in another punter into camp, they probably just really didn't like what they saw from Rehkow in OTA's so they are going to bring in someone else to compete with Ariza. I would still say Ariza is the front runner but that's no guarantee. The NFL doesn't have administrative leave. There is the Commissioners Exempt List but that's something the league and not the team determines. It is possible the league was asked to place Ariza on the list but the league is very subjective when it comes to that list. I think in the end the Bills stated they released Ariza so he can focus on his defense. I would have preferred the Bills placed Ariza on the exempt list but that's maybe not something they were offered also I think players on the exempt list still count against the cap so maybe they didn't want to go with two punters on the cap?

Bills simply need a few things to bounce their way in order to beat KC. Health - The Bills in 2020, 2022, and 2023 were not healthy during the playoffs. In 2020 and 2023 they were vastly depleted as the playoffs went on. In 2020 against KC the Bills went into the game with John Brown, Gabe Davis, and Cole Beasley all banged up at WR, then early in the game Diggs got hurt on a dirty play leaving on I-Mac as the only healthy WR. 2022 the Bills defensive line was completely banged up as were most of their team. 2023 the Bills went into the playoffs fairly healthy but lost basically their complete LB core to injury during the Steelers game (definitely need to upgrade the field to be heated as I think icy conditions caused at least 2-3 of those injuries). Luck - Tim Duncan said it best it takes a lot of luck to win a championship. 2021 the Bills gave KC their best game and they choked in 13 seconds. They also didn't have Tre White due to a Thanksgiving injury which led to a slow CB core that gave up big plays to Hill. The Bills need to be lucky with injuries and key matchups in order to get past KC in the post season. There's a lot of other factors like Roster Construction, defense showing up, and coaching that are in the Bills control. The Bills have to keep investing heavily top picks into the offense and make due with less cap dollars and less high draft choices on defense. Which I think generally speaking they are doing a better job of doing. Back to back years the top pick was spent on a pass catcher for example. Hopefully the Bills get the timing right and win the big one with Josh.

It's possible Josh punts another year to retouch his deal as the cap going up and up is only going to benefit his contract demands. However, it is usually not the players that make these demands, for a big big big contract like Josh's it is going to be his agent who presses the issue and I think Josh likely would let his agent handle it. This is all speculation but I think that given how agents don't like to have a top tier client occupy a "team friendly" deal for too long I think the agent is going to push the issue to at least get more cash short term and push the larger scale deal off a year.

I don't think Josh is going to want to go into the 2025 season as the 12-14th highest paid QB (Tua and possibly another 1-2 QB's will get redone). They will at least do some sort of adjustment to his current deal and then maybe do a full on rescale in 2026 but the contract will be addressed in 2025 to at least some moderate degree in my opinion.

There was also a fairly small amount of players on those bloated rookie deals whose money wasn't going to be touched anyway. The vast majority of the league was drafted in rounds 2-7 or undrafted. Which meant the amount of players seeking big free agency dollars in a second contract far out numbered the high picks eating away high salaries. There just wasn't any significant contingent in the players union that was going to fight for it. I think the players union first ask was that rookie first round contracts be exempt from the cap and revenue splits but the owners laughed that out of the door and the players conceded to a slotting system. I always hated the old system in the 2000's because there would literally be trackers for which first round picks had been signed or not. And the system was so top heavy because until the first overall pick was signed the market wasn't set so if one or two teams in the top 5ish selections got stuck in negotiations it put a pause on the next 15-20 selections because they are waiting on the market above them to be set. It was just a very stupid system that only benefitted a small amount of players and did have some negative impact on the market for vet free agents as teams who were bad the past two seasons and had top 5 picks back to back years who should have had a ton of money to spend in free agency had less due to having to pay two top 5 picks top 10 salaries at their positions. Not having to worry about holdouts and burdensome rookie deals is better for almost every single party involved.