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Everything posted by billsfan89
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Midterm Election Gameday Thread
billsfan89 replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Many programmers have made prototypes for redistricting algorithms. The algorithms use public data (probably because that's the only data available to them, assuming you had "official" data available the process would improve) like census data, voter registration data, average distance between a voter and the center of their district, and other metrics involving physical location and population to draw the districts. Rather than the current model of whichever party is in charge just decides the lines with very little guidelines as to how they have to draw the lines. You can see one of the algorithms prototypes on the website below where they compare their model to the lines drawn in 2010. So these aren't exactly hypothetical ideas and you can see that the lines drawn on the site below both make more sense and the standard metrics also add up much better. As to the who develops these algorithms and sets the criteria of the algorithms I would trust independent commissions and other control mechanisms such as enforcing certain criteria that lines must be drawn on. The algorithms are just a tool to help remove some of the human element that is so easily corrupted. Its not a perfect solution as humans still have to handle and develop algorithms but the solution is much much better than what we have and much better than trusting the human element. https://bdistricting.com/2010/ -
If Zay pans out, McD's first two drafts are awesome
billsfan89 replied to Da webster guy's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The 2017 draft is already a very good draft class regardless of how Zay pans out. White is a top 5 player at a critical position while Milano is already a borderline pro-bowl player, Dawkins is a high end player at a critical offensive position. Zay being a bust would prevent it from being a great draft class but if Zay panned out even as just a good slot receiver that class is a great draft class. The early returns on 2018 are good but mixed. Edumonds, Phillips and Johnson are 3 good young players on the defense all of whom look like they could be high end starters or even pro-bowl players on the defense. Teller could be a starting guard on the offense which would be another solid addition. Obviously you are right about Allen he is a big wildcard. But if (and this is a big IF) you in two drafts get two players on the offensive line, a good receiver, your franchise QB, two starting linebackers, a starting DT, and two corners that's building quite the foundation of your team. That's literally 4 starters on offense and 5 starters on defense in two drafts. That's the type of drafting that starts dynasties. Once again still a long way to go on a lot of these players and your most important piece is still a huge question mark. -
If Zay pans out, McD's first two drafts are awesome
billsfan89 replied to Da webster guy's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Zay is slowly proving he is worthy of a WR3 or WR2 spot. But the jury is still out as to how high his impact will be. I think the team still needs two receivers either high in the draft or via higher end free agency. But I do think that Zay should at least enter into the season as the WR3 unless he completely disappears the rest of the way in which case I would have him occupy the WR4 spot and make him compete for a top 3 WR spot. -
Midterm Election Gameday Thread
billsfan89 replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I agree with there needing to be some sort of paper receipt for voting but there is so much technology involved in how we vote and technology is used so much that I don't think there is a sound logical argument against the use of algorithms to help determine voting maps. Algorithms are programmed by humans and the parameters of how the map is drawn is once again defined by humans. The models and prototypes proposed define election maps by using data such as registered voters in areas and municipal boundaries. Once again it is much easier to challenge a line of code than it is to challenge a back door political deal. I just don't think there really exists a sound argument against the use of technology as opposed to politicians to draw our district lines. You know the current model has failed when 47% of people vote for one party but that party only happens to get 23% of the representatives. -
Send Jerry Hughes to the Probowl!
billsfan89 replied to GreggTX's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The defense should at least have 3 players voted in. Hyde, Hughes, Proyer, Milano, and Tre White all deserve consideration (White is a lock in my opinion any of the other 4 can go either way.) The only player on offense that deserves consideration is Dawkins but that's a stretch despite grading out well he is probably looked at around the league as the best player on a bad or mediocre unit. -
Lets assume the best case scenario here and say that Zay Jones is a solid slot receiver (lets assume his play continues to be stronger over the last 6 games of the season) and lets assume that Wyatt Teller is a really good guard (once again if he plays well over the next 6 games you can feel more confident in that) there still exists a lot of holes on the offense. The team needs 2 WR's and a tight end of the future. The team needs 3 starters on the offensive line (C, RG, and RT) and the team also needs a young RB behind Shady. That's 5 starters the team needs on offense plus some youth at older positions. That's a lot of help the team needs. I am hoping that they sign a capable vet WR like Golden Tate and draft at least two WR's in the first three rounds. Then I hope they invest heavily at C and RG in free agency and spend a high pick at RT. Then in the mid rounds where you have extra picks you can draft backups for Clay and Shady while still cherry picking some depth at defense. Bottom line is that if Teller and Zay look like viable pieces on offense that makes things better but it doesn't mean the team is just one or two pieces away from fielding a good offense around Allen.
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Midterm Election Gameday Thread
billsfan89 replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
The government uses machines to count votes, if your argument is that there should be no involvement of technology in the franchise of voting then we are far beyond that point. Having humans draw the lines based off of almost no criteria is not the solution and using technology to help implement the HUMAN parameters of how we should be drawing our representative maps isn't some handing over of sovereignty more than using machines to count votes is. If you want to fetter out corruption in this instance use the technology that is best available to humans to do so. As I said you can check each line of code and how an algorithm is programmed and challenge each and every single aspect of that in a court composed of humans. You can't have that same level of scrutiny with human subjectivity. I am not sure if you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how algorithms and the technology proposed to solve the problem is being implemented or you are just willfully ignorant of why the technology is needed and what human involvement is in the technology. -
Midterm Election Gameday Thread
billsfan89 replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Your assessment of using technology as a tool to better draw districts in a less corrupt and better representative manner as handing over sovereignty to AI is very hyperbolic and dramatic. The government uses technology as a tool for far more important things and last time I checked Skynet is not in control of our government. Humans would still have control and be able to manage the system. The current model of doing things is so corrupt and we have the technology to use as a foundation to better shape the system so what is the argument against it? As far as banning political parties I am not sure that would solve it. Humans are clique and tribal based. So even if you took the formality out of it, the same things would still happen. If you put 435 people in a work environment there are always cliques and centers of power along with rivalries and other issues that are just inherent to human nature esp in an environment that is power and cooperation based. That's a bit misleading. You can check how an algorithm is programmed and have various controls to it. You can mount a legal challenge as to how an algorithm is programmed and step by step go through each line of code. Whereas the current system has no such paper trail other than this is how the party in power decided to do it. -
Midterm Election Gameday Thread
billsfan89 replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
That's another conversation, I don't have as much of an issue with the Senate since its there to make sure each state has a voice. But in Congress we basically have corrupt parties deciding how people get represented and it has results that are empirically Undemocratic. -
Midterm Election Gameday Thread
billsfan89 replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
What I propose is using algorithms and technology to better draw districts. You can set the conditions to draw districts based on what you think best fits to represent the people. Yes there is some subjectivity to it but as you said there is no perfect solution. So if you want you can use technology to draw districts that are more politically homogeneous if you feel that fits the conditions of the House better you can do that. To not use the tools of modern technology and rely on partisan pols when partisan pols have been shown to draw districts based on what benefits their party as opposed to where populations of people are is not a system that makes sense. -
Midterm Election Gameday Thread
billsfan89 replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
The current system marginalizes people of one political persuasion based off of which party is in power when the lines are drawn. If you have a large urban center that has 50% of the population of the state but only gets 25% of the representation how is that not marginalizing 50% of the state? -
Midterm Election Gameday Thread
billsfan89 replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
So you honestly see no problem with 47% of votes going to one party but only 23% of the seats going to that one party? I don't understand your argument here. I am fine with districts being homogeneous if your premise is to be believed but they aren't drawn that way. Gerrymandering will place 2 large population centers of one party into 1 district that will vote 90% with one party then split the suburbs which have 50% less population into 2 districts that tend to vote 60% for one party. Drawing on partisan lines is fine if it is drawn in accordance to population and reflecting who is being represented. You can't possibly be defending the way lines are drawn to isolate small populations and concentrate large ones. In a Democracy you have to have a system that actually represents the votes of the people and not the power of the party to draw silly and insane lines. -
Midterm Election Gameday Thread
billsfan89 replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Your argument would have more weight if districts were drawn to have equal partisan representation and algorithms can provide a better way to actually accomplish what you want too. Often times a part will win 47% of the votes but only gain 23% representation because, you can't always expect 1:1 representation but 1:2 shows you that gerrymandering isn't representing people in any way. -
Trump blows off WWI Centenary due to a little rain
billsfan89 replied to Logic's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Politics and sports are super similar, if the Bills get away with a push off its OK because the Pats cheat all the time anyway or if the Bills do it, its not an obvious push off ***** you. If you are a Trump fan you are going to be OK with almost anything he does because he is your guy. If Obama did something similar to what Trump did with the WWI vets the same people making excuses would be killing Obama and saying that there were 1,000 ways he could have made it and all the excuses would be ignored as whining. It goes the other way around too. When it comes to politics very few people are actually consistent and hold principles. As far as Trump ***** him for missing the event. Trump always rails against his opponents for "Poor Management" yet when he poorly manages a situation like this all the excuses he lambastes other for starts to come out. -
Midterm Election Gameday Thread
billsfan89 replied to Pine Barrens Mafia's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Gerrymandering (which is done by both parties, this is not a partisan issue) is one of the biggest and most open forms of corruption and its shocking to me in an age of such advanced technology and algorithms we allow pols of either party to make these horrid maps to their parties benefit. How there isn't an universal algorithm to draw maps in ways that make sense and avoid partisan pols running the system is shocking. -
I don't think the Giants are getting rid of Eli until after 2019. I think that the Giants draft a top QB and have Eli be the place holder for 2019. Then they dump Eli for the young QB in 2020. But I do think that if the Giants were to outright cut or trade Eli he would probably land in Jacksonville (They are in desperate need of a QB and his old Giants coach is the President there) or Denver (They too will have a young QB who could maybe use a veteran mentor, plus if that defense adds a piece or two they could be good enough to make a push with competent QB play.) The Cowboys are going to stick with Dak for at least one more season as the starter. He has shown some improvement from his Sophomore season and he still has one year left on his rookie deal. The Cowboys would be more so in the market for a veteran backup which Eli would fit but probably not be interested in. Besides Denver or Jacksonville I am not sure what other QB thirsty teams would want Eli. The teams in 2019 that will probably be in the market for a QB Giants Denver Jacksonville Possibly Oakland if they trade Carr Dolphins Redskins (they are fine with Smith in the short term maybe they want a QB prospect to develop). Bucs (If they are moving on from Winston) I am not sure why the Giants would move on so quickly if they can have Eli be the veteran mentor for a rookie at least for a season. The Giants are a bit of a mess but the potential is there. They have a dynamic running back, one of the best receivers in the league, a young tight end with potential, and a decent WR 2 in Sheppard. Their O-line sucks and Eli might be shot but if you get a QB in there and add 2 pieces to the O-line they might have one of the best offenses in the league. Of course the defense is pretty horrid. Given how the Giants passed on Darnold to take Barkley they want to win asap and I could see them trading for Carr as Oakland with pick 1 could fully reset and take a QB and get a haul for Carr. I could see the Giants trading their top 5-10 pick, plus a couple of mid round 2019 picks, and a 1st in 2020 for Carr, Oakland's 2019 2nd, and a 3rd in 2020. The Giants would still have 2 early 2nd round picks in the draft to address the O-line and they get a young QB on a fairly affordable contract. Oakland swaps a early 2nd for and top 5 pick but also gets some mid round picks to add to their draft and gets a 1st in 2020 only having to give up the Bears 3rd to do so. Of course the Giants could just do the sensible thing and draft a young QB and stick with Eli for one more year but I think the Giants want to win asap for some reason.
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Start Josh Allen (healthy) or Matt Barkley?
billsfan89 replied to TonyBeets's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The team is 3 and 7, there isn't any saving this season. If Allen is healthy throw him out there. Although I wouldn't be opposed to waiting an extra week on Allen if an extra week is beneficial. I guess what I am trying to say is, if Allen is ready to go 100% play him but I don't see the need to rush him back right away given Barkley played well the last game. -
To make the playoffs the Bills are going to have to run the table to get to 9-7 which with 6 games left (including one against the Pats) just isn't likely to happen. Even if the Bills go 5-1 and get to 8-8 (which is unlikely) that's not likely to get you into the playoffs. I think the Bills split the Fish games, lose to the Pats, split the Lions and Jags games, and likely beat the Jets again. Pending on if they sweep the Jets the team will finish 5-11 or 6-10. Don't be a prisoner of the moment because they curb stomped a poor team that came out flat.
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[Name Only Title] Wyatt Teller?
billsfan89 replied to Dave Allen's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
IF (and these are big IF's) Teller pans out to be a good guard and Josh Allen pans out as a QB then the 2018 draft class could be legendary for the Bills, that's your QB and a starter along the offensive line along with Edumonds, Phillips, and T.Johnson as 3 starters on defense. That's 5 starters all at critical positions. The jury is still out on all 5 even if the early returns on Edumonds, Phillips, and T.Johnson are good they still have some way to go. Overall I like seeing Teller play well, its only one game but if he finishes the season strong I think there is one less hole on the offensive side to deal with. -
[Name Only Title] Wyatt Teller?
billsfan89 replied to Dave Allen's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
That's true but the Jets played like crap and came out flat. I am not trying to diminish Teller's performance but rather just avoid being a prisoner of the moment and add some context to his performance. To me Teller looked good and if he continues to play like this he will be the starter next season too. -
[Name Only Title] Wyatt Teller?
billsfan89 replied to Dave Allen's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The Jets are a garbage team so I take any performance with a grain of salt. That being said a good game is a good game and I think almost regardless of how he played in this game Teller should start the rest of the way simply to see what he has If Teller finishes the season strong then you can focus on Center and the right side of the O-line. -
Week 10 Bills @ Jets first half thread
billsfan89 replied to SlimShady'sSpaceForce's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Its one game against a bad team, sometimes these fluky things happen. The Bills as a whole have come out great and the Jets have come out flat, these things happen. Its best to not be a prisoner of the moment. If Barkley is playing even just competent I don't bring Allen back until after the Jacksonville game. -
Week 10 Bills @ Jets first half thread
billsfan89 replied to SlimShady'sSpaceForce's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The Vikings were a stacked team, Diggs, Thilen, and Rudolph and a decent set of RB's, even the Vikings O-line put together a decent season combine that was a great defense and Keenum was able to put together a storybook season. Barkley doesn't have the same type of circumstances. -
Josh allen is mcbeans cam newton
billsfan89 replied to Lafromboise's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Allen will get a shot in a QB competition in 2020 if he looks bad in 2019 but he will still be given a chance to turn around his development. Once again it depends on how 2019 goes but Allen won't have as long a leash as most think if 2019 is a turd year.