billsfan89

The Bills defense is even in its lesser years still a better than average NFL defense. It has just come up short against KC (and a few other times) in the playoffs. Typically better offenses in the playoffs have given the Bills issues. What I hope the heavy defensive emphasis in free agency and the draft (mainly targeted towards the D-line and CB spots although safety had some moderate additions) is that it helps raise the defenses "ceiling" so to speak. The Bills haven't had that elite defense that's gonna take out top 10 (let alone top 5) offenses consistently. I think this year is gonna test the theory that maybe McD's defensive gameplan just doesn't work against elite teams in the playoffs. I think he has the talent on the defense to make it work.

Going to an expansion franchise is insanely hard to do as a rookie QB and David Carr also had an issue where the expansion draft rules weren't that good for the Texans which meant that getting the franchise off to a hot start like the Jags and Panthers was not gonna happen (I think the other owners basically didn't want to be too favorable for expansion teams so they defacto punished the Texans and returning Browns). I would love to have seen Derrick Carr with the Texans team that Matt Schuab had. Schuab had a lot better O-line and a good complement of weapons and a defense that improved somewhat. Carr was just given Andre Johnson and not much else.

There might be a couple others as NIL money makes it so that you have something to fall back on should you run into a serious injury. But it is only going to be a narrow range of QB prospects who are gonna have the luxury to be picky with landing spots. The guys who know if they wait a year at worst they will be a top 5 pick prospects that I think would have fit this bill in the last 10ish years Trevor Lawrence, Andrew Luck, and maybe Caleb Williams? That's about it. And of those players what maybe one of them wouldn't have liked their landing spot? It will be a situation that pops up once or twice a decade at worst.

NIL is going to make college players a little more confident in staying another year if the teams that hold the number one pick aren't appealing situations. That being said I do think there's not going to be that many prospects (and let's be honest really just QB's) that go back for an extra year to avoid a particular team drafting them. Being the number one pick at QB pays well and it's something that signals a longer term commitment a NFL team has to you that makes you at minimum a three year commitment. Whereas you go to college and you get hurt that's it. The Manning family was able to make those decisions in the 90's and 00's to stay an extra year because having a wealthy or at least well off dad who knows the league helps.

I was a "Wrong Josh" guy but it took me about 24 hours to be turned around on Josh Allen as a prospect. I bought into a lot of the pre-draft hype about accuracy issues that were not going to get fixed at the pro level because "no one fixes accuracy issues". I think a lot of posters on this board as well as Mel Kiper of all people really got me on board with selecting the prospect with the much higher ceiling who if he fixed his footwork and decision making could be an MVP (and that's exactly what happened). I think Kiper basically said that anyone saying Josh Allen has accuracy issues that couldn't be fixed was engaging in "lazy scouting" which as it turns out Kiper was completely right about. Kiper pointed out that Allen's completion percentages were not as bad as they seemed on the surface largely because he didn't have the best WR core which led to some dropped passes and poor breaks on catchable balls. Secondly Kiper mentioned the college system Josh played in was a system that emphasized throwing the ball down the field a lot and less short throws that inflate completion percentages. The other side of the coin on Josh as a prospect was that the reason he had some really off looking throws and bad throws was a result of some bad footwork habits. Josh had such a powerful raw arm that it compensated somewhat for lackluster footwork. But in the NFL Josh was going to have to fix his footwork in order to make it as a high level QB. The pro-Josh Allen camp stated that Josh was a very hard working and dedicated so that the idea that with NFL coaching and a full time level of commitment he couldn't fix those issues was flawed. Also, Josh's weaker decision making came from a combination of his insane arm leads him to thinking he can make every throw and just lack of consistent experience. So I am very glad the Bills got Josh Allen and have good scouting and coaching.

I think a team would 100% claim him. There's not many teams with 4 safeties better than him and the fact that he's a willing special teams player means that teams won't be burning a roster spot on a pure backup. He's well worth a roster spot in my opinion. Ideally the team has Bishop displace him but having a steady backup who at worst flexes into a ST role is still good injuries happen and this team could do a lot worse than having Hamlin plug in for a few games.

That's my read on Hamlin too, I think Cover 1 and some more detailed film junkies on Youtube have said similar things. That Hamlin is very fundamentally sound in knowing where to be in the system while also being a willing tackler he just lacks the speed to close like an elite safety.

The minimum salary starts at 860k and tops out at 1.2 million. A stable high quality backup who plays capable special teams for 2 million seems like a good use of a roster spot. The extra stability of good depth at safety with some special teams ability is worth about a million extra dollars over a minimum player. The Bills brought in plenty of competition via a mid round pick and a young vet in Forrest. At worst you have an over abundance of depth at safety and overpaid for a competent special teams player. At best they made sure they have a stable capable backup option who they know can play at a competent level within their system.

The idea that Hamlin isn’t at least a quality backup well worth a roster spot (bolstered by the fact that he’s a willing and decent ST player) is just insane to me.

it would be interesting if Joe Brady had formations with Alec Anderson and Hawes out there.

Camp body nothing more nothing less

Tim Duncan said it best it takes a lot of luck to win a championship. I'm confident this team has the talent level it just comes down to in the playoffs where the margin for error is slim can they execute against the elite teams? I think they can and will just have to get some luck with health (like every team) and hope positive player development continues to occur.

KC are the Brady era Pats every year they lose some players (since Mahomes hasn't been on his rookie deal) and every year they chug along and get at least 11-12 wins. They are the top dogs in the Conference and their division until proven otherwise (hopefully by the Bills). That's not to say that I don't think the division isn't stronger and that this could be a "vulnerable" year for KC. But dam it's just so hard to bet against them. In 2022 after they traded Hill I figured maybe their offense would struggle but they chugged along. 2023 they were a lower seed and had to go two weeks on the road and still got it done. So even in years where I think KC is maybe a little down they still find ways to be a high end team. My hope is that the Chargers and Broncos become a consistently good team in the next 3-4 years. Broncos got a rookie QB contract so they have that window and The Chargers have Herbert on a good deal and both teams are coming off good seasons with added talent due to their cap space being much cleaner and another draft class.

Tyrod also keeps the running component of Josh intact. Toss in that he can play in a way that complements McD's defense (as seen in 2017) and I think he by far makes the best backup.

Honestly if he can just be a capable run stuffer it would be a big positive for a defense that has struggled to consistently have that type of player. D.Jones was that at times (with pocket pressure upside) but after his 2023 injury he's just not that guy he's at best a solid rotational player. Hoping the Bills can really hit on at least one of the two DT's they drafted this year.

Fair concerns about Palmer but I do think that he will be a contributor. I think he's gonna slot in and make a contribution of 500-700 yards 4-6 TD's and 50ish receptions on Ok to good target efficiency. What would have made me more excited about Palmer is that he's not a WR that can claim to be a good player trapped with a bad QB. But by all accounts Palmer is the type of outside WR the team needed so there's a lot of different ways you can look at him

I think ESPN will be taking over the NFLN so sadly that upcoming take over means that ESPN/NFL are going to gut NFLN so ESPN can take it over. Sad because NFLN was probably the best of the "Big 4" sports own TV networks now it is probably the worst.

Who would win the Pope or Ditka? But the Pope's name is Ditka?

He's 32 older but not ancient, he's coming off a season where he had 5.5 sacks in 14 games in what I imagine was a more limited role and he's known to be an effective edge setter. I am sure there's a team out there similar to the Bills in 2023 who missed out on DE's in the draft and signed Leonard Floyd to get some pass rush pop for a year rental. I am sure there is a team that needs a boost at the DE spot. Not only is Clowney not coming off a bad season in 2024 but he's just a year removed from a 9.5 sack season in 2023. He's gonna get a modest sized one year deal unless there's a medical I am unaware of.

Get R Done... In all seriousness the Bills have a very crowded D-line room and they don't need a mercenary. Bosa is the front line pass rush mercenary Hoecht is on a 3 year deal and is that moveable chess piece, Groot and AJE are there, and they have Jackson drafted fairly high this year and Solomon as a back end prospect. That's 6 DE's and no need for a back end veteran depth. Simply put the Bills have 6 solid DE's there.

Steelers don't tank, even if it seems like they should sometimes. Kind of surprised to see that their drafting in recently has not been very good as usually their drafting is what keeps them afloat even if they are very conservative in free agency.

Problem is the Bills in order to accommodate signing DK would have not only had to have given up a 2nd plus a late pick at minimum would also likely not have been able to sign many if any significant defensive free agents. I get that the Bills wouldn't have signed Palmer but he's only accounting for about 27.5% of what DK is making, probably wouldn't have been able to manage the Bosa or Hoecht signings as an example.

Been talked about to death in the Gabe thread. Many fans (like myself) don't mind kicking the tires on a vet minimum in camp, but he's not likely to be a difference maker as he wasn't capable of being a WR2 when he was here. Some fans just don't think he has anything and isn't even worth a 90 man roster spot. Personally given that I don't think a 90 man roster spot is that valuable why not kick the tires?

Steelers if I had to guess probably had this trade locked in prior to the draft but were either negotiating the fine lines (do you swap a 5th for a 6th or a 6th for a 7th) or simply held off on announcing the trade because both teams wanted to keep it a secret from the other 30 teams during the draft process in case the Steelers wanted to draft a WR and the Cowboys were probably fine with letting teams think they might want to draft one. Probably some level of gamesmenship. Also the cap situation after the draft may have been a bit murky so maybe sort out what you have cap wise and then make the trade official.

DK would have been an amazing addition but cap wise I just don't think that would have been possible or prudent. It also would have cost significant draft capital. I think the Bills plan at WR is going to be to roll with what they have (maybe kick the tires on Gabe in camp too) and then if the offense like in 2024 is a bit sputtering due to lack of talent at WR then make a trade in season where cap numbers are much more manageable due to teams having already paid out bonuses and part of the seasons salary. It's a smart plan to make a few mid-level to lower mid-level acquisitions at WR (Palmer and Moore) who fit what the Bills need and bank on a bounce back from Kincaid who will hopefully be healthy (Samuel might also produce more as he is likely healthier) and continued development from Keon in year two coming off a nice rookie year. Then if that doesn't work 5-6 weeks in you can look at the trade market where teams off to 1-2 win starts after 5-6 weeks will be more willing to sell WR's.