billsfan89

Are you saying fans are hyperbolic?

As bad as the Bills defense has looked they should have at least forced two field goals on the first drives.

Bills at least got a big stop on third down there to force the field goal. Gotta slow the bleeding at least.

Josh getting all his turnovers out now...

Sloppy start to the game, Josh has to realize they are in field goal range take a sack and live to fight another down.

Special teams making an impact positive sign! I get an official in real time maybe thinking Ingram hit Murray in the head mistakes can happen in a fast game. But there should be some ability to challenge personal foul calls.

The defense held up and held the Cards to a field goal attempt had it not been for a horrendous penalty call.

They really need to make personal foul calls reviewable. I am so sick of these soft blatantly bad calls extending drives and impacting games, that one really horrible call (which would have easily been overturned on a video review) just cost the Bills 4 points.

Not that I care about the KC punter that much but his net average on punts in the opener was 33 yards not exactly lighting the world on fire. The eye test revealed that he's obviously got a strong leg but he's not great at placing punts which is going to limit his net. There's a reason why despite the strong leg and big highlights he wasn't the top punter taken in his own draft class. Now don't get me wrong I loved when the Bills drafted Ariza, they needed a punter and here's this guy with one of the biggest legs out there who they got via a 6th round pick. But he's still both just a punter and a prospect/player with significant flaws.

The data in the pre-season showed that the average kick was returned to the 28.5 yardline. So if you do a touchback you are only conceding 1.5 yards but completely eliminating the chance of a big kick return. I think the NFL is going to have to tweak it to touchbacks at the 35 so that now conceding 7.5 yards is a bigger deal

He was on a 3rd round pick rookie deal, how much lower could his cap hit go?

Had Diggs not imploded personally his extension at age 29 when WR’s tend to play at or near prime level until around 33/34 wasn’t that bad. You can argue investing in a volitale personality like Diggs in 2022 was not the best idea but the on field aspect was solid. Also while the Bills are eating a lot of dead cap this year the Bills did get a 2nd round pick for Diggs so even that extension returned some value

Gonna depend on the numbers but I probably am going to like the deal given that McBeane rarely makes bad resignings (only one I can think of is Knox and that’s not tragic). Bills lock down one of two major starting free agents going into next offseason (the other being Douglas) so the Bills go into next offseason with a lot more certainty as far as configuring their cap picture. The Bills are also keeping together the offensive line longer term which I always like doing as chemistry is big for offensive line play.

Worthy just screams injury risk but when he's on the field I think he's going to be a good player. I just don't think Worthy is going to be able to stay healthy at his size and playing at his speed. I also like McConkey's chances after this season to be a good WR as his situation with Herbert and Harbaugh seems like it could allow him to put up good numbers.

I think there is a scenario where Von sticks around for another season. If he proves to be a solid but unspectacular DE (gets 7-8ish sacks in a rotational role) in 2024 and he's willing to rework his deal massively again I think Von and the Bills can come into an agreement where both sides needs align. Although I do agree that he's most likely heading for a cut but the Bills willingness to take a big dead cap hit on him and Von showing he is willing to negotiate at least make it a possibility he comes back. I do agree on Knox, as long as Knox is even remotely productive he's going to be back, he is also friends with Josh so that along with his money being hard to get out of until 2026 make him a solid spot on the 2025 roster.

Not a surprise the Bills are taking a gigantic dead cap hit this year on Diggs alone whose dead cap is 12.5% of the cap. The Bills are also taking 22.9 million in dead cap on Tre White, Bates, Floyd, Bates, Hyde, Mitch, and Poyer. There's even another 4 players the Bills are taking dead cap hits above 1 million on which adds up along with smaller dead cap hits almost every team takes. In the beginning of the McD/Beane era in 2017-2018 the Bills took a ton of dead cap to properly reset the cap situation after two years into the Rex Ryan era the team was overleveraged with bad contracts. 2017 the Bills were 3rd in dead cap with 30 million in dead cap. In 2018 the Bills were number one in dead cap by a large margin (with 70 million which was 27 million more than the second place team). The Bills since after the Bills got out from under the bad Rex Ryan contracts in 2019 The Bills have been ranked no higher than 21st in dead cap with some years ranking in the bottom 4. So the Bills getting out from under the declining vets and a few void years in 2024 after a 5 year period of being very low in dead cap is good longer term roster management.

The league has far more to lose if games were caught being fixed (quite literally everything) than they would to gain. So I do not believe there is an institutional fixing of the league (in that the NFL from the top down is instructing officials to fix games). The NFL if it wishes for a more exciting product can and has made rule changes to make games higher scoring. If the NFL wants there to be more competitive games they have salary cap rules and draft rules they can adjust to achieve the balance they want relatively speaking. The NFL league office already has the levers of power to achieve the outcomes it wants without having to risk their existence rigging games institutionally. While I am sure when the mob was more involved and there was a lot more money in gambling off the field than there was on the field it is possible some games were fixed (and even then I don't think it was institutional). But in the modern era The NFL has a decade long TV deal worth tens of billions of dollars, they don't need to risk the entire leagues health for some marginal unknown benefit. Is it possible that a compromised ref situation could occur? Yes, I do suppose that a ref whose in too deep with the wrong people or working for some other motive could be compromised and fix a game. With how tightly refs are regulated and how fairly well paid they are now I think that's a lot harder to do but they cannot catch everything and there's always the possibility someone slips through the cracks. That's not to say that NFL games are always well officiated but I don't think the officiating is trying to "rig" the game for one team at least not intentionally. I do think that veteran QB/Coach combos do develop relationships with the refs over time that allows for some friendly interactions that could lead to favorable calls but that's just more of a human element.

Dawson Knox’s Creek…

Even if Diggs has a very good season in Houston at age 32 I don't think many teams are going to be lining up to give him a long term deal, at most maybe a team gives him a 2-3 year deal where the 3rd year is easy to get out of and that's best case. Likely he's going to sign a 1-2 year contract even if he puts up good production. WR's tend to fall off around age 33-34 historically. So paying a guy going into his age 32 season is not something most teams are lining up to do on longer term commitments.

ST was a big time sore spot last season. The second Pats game was a lot closer because the ST unit spotted that Pats a free opening kick TD. The Chargers game was made even tighter because of the fumbled punt. That's in addition to the missed kicks in Philly that cost the Bills that game most likely and the Denver game where a simple snafu cost them the game outright. That's in addition to smaller execution issues. The ST unit only made two big play the Harty punt return that was critical in winning the Fins game and the opening kick forced fumble and recovery in the second Jets game that set the tone for that game and converted into points. I am fine with Martin, he looked solid in the pre-season and I think he can/will be about an average punter which is fine. I also think the kick return game with the player the Bills traded for from the Jets will be improved. Hopefully the Bills coverage units with lesser known players will be better. But Bass is where I am really concerned. He clearly has the yips despite making easy kicks in the pre-season he clearly is struggling from 40 out. I think Bass is going to cost this team a game and the Bills will replace him in season.

Many times a Leveraged Buyout will include the business its self borrowing money to purchase its self, this is called a Management Buyout. A PE Firm will come in and put up 15% of the money but run the company which just borrowed money to pay for its self. That type of financing scheme should be illegal buy the company outright or don't buy it at all. These are companies that are usually profitable or only recently undergoing harder times. Many times like Toys R Us the companies could have stayed in business had they been able to put money into the infrastructure or operations of the company instead of the large debt/interest payments. So these companies will be saddled with tons of debt while the PE firms put up a small percentage to buy the firm and then make that money back by charging the company management fees and stripping away the the profitable entities and taking their cut from those sales. This adds no value because the companies go out of business largely because of the useless debt they took on and all the management fees.

It is interesting to feel like if this season doesn't work out that the Bills are going to be "fine" as they have a good amount of premium draft capital and a decent amount of cap space to make any additions to a roster that is at worst in need of some pieces but not likely a complete overhaul. Bills likely are going to have anywhere between 40-60 million in space (with only a few key free agents) entering the off-season and 6 picks in rounds 1-4 along with 2-4 later round picks depending on how comp picks go. So there's room to reload the roster if the Bills aren't able to get it done this year.

Bills got some good day 3 and undrafted years. 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2022 all yielded starting players and role players. 2017- Milano 2018- Taron Johnson, Neal, Levi Wallace, and Boetteger (Neal a role player Boetteger a brief starter) 2020- Gabe Davis, Bass, and Dane 2022- Shakir, Benford, while Spector and Anderson have caught on as backups. Even a weaker year like 2021 still yielded Demar and Morris who caught on as backups. Only 2019 and 2023 really look like years where they couldn't at least produce multiple viable backups if not starters in day 3 and undrafted players. I would say that the Bills day 3 and UDFA record from 2017 to now is pretty dam good. If you can produce a starter (let alone two like in some seasons) and a role player or two in that area that's a pretty good record to have in that area of player development.

I think DE is gonna start looking a lot better after this season. I think Groot is looking for a breakout while I also think AJE is going to take a moderate step up and make the Bills DE development look better. I also think Solomon is going to show some flashes too which should show promise for the future of their ability to scout and develop DE's. The Bills haven't had too much in the way of DE draft picks from 2017-2019. The only DE they drafted in the first three McBeane seasons was a 7th round pick in Darryl Johnson in 2019. So there hasn't been much of a chance to develop high or even mid-round picks until 2020 and it takes about 3-4 years to see what you have or what the potential of prospects are. So we are at that tipping point with the DE's drafted in 2020-21. From 2020-2023 there have been only 3 DE's taken by the Bills. AJE, Groot, and Boogie. Boogie is a complete bust so a big strike against them there but the other two picks Groot and AJE have developed into productive players although it is questionable if they have reached their draft status. Groot the past two seasons has played like a solid starting caliber DE after showing some flashes his rookie year. As a late 1st round pick could you consider that below expectations? Certainly possible but it's not the worst outcome to get a solid starter in the late 1st even if you want a Pro-Bowl caliber guy. AJE got off to a slow start due to various factors (Covid season and transforming his body by losing 20 pounds) but the past two seasons he's established himself as a high end rotational DE. Once again late 2nd round pick you might want more of him but he's got room at his age to go up another level in play. TLDR: Bills didn't draft any DE's in the mid-rounds or higher form 2017-2019 so we are now seeing what the players drafted after 2020 will be which may make the Bills DE development look a lot better.

I don't love Martin, I thought in 2022 he was good, about a lower end top 10 punter that season. In 2023 he was below average but not tragic, somewhere in the 19-22 ranks. The Bills can live with a below average but not tragic punter but I hope Martin can be a bit better in 2024 than he was in 2023. That being said I actually thought he kicked the ball well in pre-season. And punting is something the "eye test" and stats can get you a good indicator of performance. So I have no idea how the ***** PFF graded Martin anything less than average based on pre-season. So yeah I am going to chuck PFF's grade out the window on this one. As far as special teams I am more so concerned with Bass than Martin. I think Martin's floor is what he was in 2023. The Bills can live with a below average punter. But they are more likely to lose games with missed kicks than a shanked punt. And Bass is a far bigger liability to miss kicks than Martin is to have a really awful punt. I am not too thrilled with either but I think Martin's solid pre-season performance makes me much more confident in him than Bass.