Tommy

LOVE IT

Was hoping Gallup might fall to us but the Cowboys just scooped him up

Regarding balls getting batted down -- I was listening to a podcast a couple weeks ago with one of the top guys over at PFF (I forget which guy exactly), and he said that Baker Mayfield's 2017 season was the 3rd best of any college quarterback season since 2014 with respect to percentage of balls that were batted down at the line of scrimmage (i.e. 3rd fewest balls batted down as a percentage of his throws). If you consider the number of teams in football and then consider the four seasons since 2014, you're talking about roughly the 3rd fewest batted balls in a season out of 500 QB seasons. Maybe some of that is due to the offensive scheme and good o-line play, which opened up throwing lanes for him. However, I think the narrative of him being too short to throw over the line is a fallacy.

I'd love to bring in Colvin. He's someone I wanted the Bills to target going into Free Agency. He was a great CB in college, and then got hurt which caused is draft stock to fall. He played very well last year for the Jags. The Bills could use an upgrade in the slot. I'm hoping that since he's not as big of a name that he can be had for a reasonable deal.

It's a ranking. The write-up of Josh Allen indicates that he "might be at the very top of this list" if he were just comparing physical ability alone. Add that to the fact that he has Brees and Cousins at the top, and the fact that if it was just a list, it would make sense to organize all free agents vs draft prospects together, yet he has them mixed. Finally, he describes Josh Rosen as the "most pro ready" and has him as the highest draft prospect in the list. In retrospect, this isn't a big deal and I can't believe I just spent time writing that. I'll let myself out...

I completely agree that Penny played against a lower level of competition. However, I just wanted to clarify that San Diego State is in the Mountain West Conference, which is Division 1 (FBS). Personally, I'm not blown away by Penny. I am concerned about the level of competition, and as another poster mentioned, he seems to run with a little bit of stiffness. I'm also a little concerned about his production being a product of the system he is in -- Donnel Pumphrey ran for over over 2,000 yards in 2016 at San Diego State as a 5'8", 178lb RB.

There isn't anything ironic about this at all. As was already stated, his success in the NFL is not related to his ability to evaluate prospects. It would be ironic if he was making fun of another player that was drafted in the 2nd round for being a bust, since he himself was a 2nd round bust.

To answer the question posed in the thread title: Not necessarily. Case Keenum had a good year, but I think we also have to remember that this was a single season, and that he was playing for (I believe) the team with the #1 Defense in the NFL. Keenum performed well within the structure that was provided for him, and he had a great defense to back him up. Even if he goes on to another team and has to carry more of the load himself - and performs well at it - I'm not sure it changes how GMs would need to evaluate QBs. He's been in the league long enough at this point, and no GM wants to wait 5 years for a guy to "blossom." I think Keenum is just a good example of how it's possible to have a successful team without a top-end QB. However, I think this is much more the exception than the rule. I.e. I think that any GM would rather plan to have a great QB (who can mask weaknesses) than plan to construct such a great supporting roster that the particular QB used is not as important.

You'd have to wait until the 2019 draft for Dungey. He was only a junior and is coming back for his final season. Regarding other Syracuse players, the only guy who has a decent chance to be drafted is Steve Ishmael, WR. He's got decent physicality and can win 50-50 balls. He'll probably be a late round guy.

No thank you. He could barely crack the lineup in Denver, and he would be here for one year max. What's the point?

Just a couple of tidbits of info to add to what you said: Regarding Benjamin, in the end of season press conference, both McDermott and Beane admitted that since Benjamin was injured in the Chargers game, he has never been back to 100%. They praised him for toughing it out to be out there. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do when fully healthy and with a full offseason with our program. Regarding the separation of our receivers, I saw a chart yesterday on Twitter from (I believe) Matt Harmon, who writes for NFL.com and other outlets. The chart contained "next gen stats" and indicated average yards of separation of WRs at the time of QB release for all 32 teams. The Buffalo Bills were dead last in this metric. One interesting note was that the Chiefs were #1.

I also went to Syracuse for undergrad and I also follow them very closely. No one will argue with you about this not being one of Syracuse's better teams. I'm not expecting the game to be a blowout or anything. I'm sure it will be close, and it's very possible Bona wins. I just don't think one can definitively say that St. Bonaventure is absolutely better than Syracuse this year. Like I said, we can agree to disagree :). Go Cuse!

Let's agree to disagree haha. Luckily we will find out on Dec 22nd when they play each other.

They may be in play for winning their conference and getting to the Tournament, but I don't know about the "fringe top 25 team" comment. I just looked at the latest AP poll, and they are not even in the top 48 right now (top 25 are given rankings, and then there were 23 other schools in the "others receiving votes" group).

I think Russell Wilson would be a strong consideration, considering what he does with what might be the worst OL in the league. Rodgers and Brady would also be great picks. If we went WR, I think you'd want someone with elite separation like Antonio Brown, given Tyrod's tendency to only throw to guys who are already open (vice throwing jump balls and risking an interception). For defense, Aaron Donald is the most dominant player on that side of the ball, in my opinion.

It was Wood.

I remember seeing Poyer's pass break-up during the game, and on the play, the pass was actually directed at another receiver who was being guarded by another defender. Poyer was trailing his man (not the intended target). The ball was thrown behind Poyer as he was running across the field, and he reached back to deflect the pass, even though the man he was guarding was in front of him. So that play did not count as a target against him.

If you look closely at his shirt, you'll see it's a fleet of white Broncos chasing a single police car. Regarding the confusion on pick 149 -- 149 is the 5th pick in the 5th round

Ed Wang anyone?

I'm in.

If traded to a new team, Tony Romo would only cost $14 million (his base salary) against the cap for his new team. He would be owed a base salary of $19.5m in 2018 and $20.5m in 2019, however, none of that is guaranteed, so he could be released with zero dead cap hit. Essentially, a trade for Romo would be like a one year "prove it" deal for $14m, with a team option (year to year) for the next two seasons, with zero dead money if released at any time. It would certainly be a calculated risk, as no one can say with 100% certainty that he will or will not stay healthy. I'm not sure the Cowboys will be willing to eat all of his dead money in 2017 however, so I think it's more likely that he is designated a post-June 1st release. For the Cowboys it's really about the decision between receiving compensation and the ability to spread his cap hit over two years.

On this topic, I read an interesting article the other day from MMQB in which the author spoke to agents about dealing with the Pats, and how the team has been able to acquire players at a reduced cost. Here is the article: http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/01/27/nfl-new-england-patriots-roster-building-bill-belichick-super-bowl-51 Perhaps even more interesting (and extremely shady) were the details about how Brady may be circumventing the salary cap by way of receiving money through his business, TB12. The MMQB article links to an article from the Boston Globe in Dec 2015 (https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/12/19/patriots-pay-business-owned-tom-brady-and-partner-with-dubious-past/C4zMzcPDgU62WMMg10qeBL/story.html) which provides a lot of information about Brady and his relationship with the co-owner of TB12, Alex Guerrero, who seems like a real scumbag (and has faced federal sanctions for all sorts of false advertising, deception, and deceit). The Globe article also details how unusual it is (per expert sports and labor law Professors) for an NFL team to employ a private company in which one of the active players is an owner. This is some seriously shady stuff, but doesn't surprise me.

Based on your example, the odds of getting at least one franchise QB in 10 attempts are actually 47.55%. Here is the math: Let's say X = Probability of getting a franchise QB in a given attempt = 6.25%, per your calculation Y = Probability of not getting a franchise QB in a given attempt = 100% - 6.25% = 93.75% Z = Probability of getting at least one franchise QB over 10 attempts n = The number of attempts = 10 You are trying to find the probably of getting at least one franchise QB over 10 attempts, or Z. In cases like these, it's easier to determine the probability of the goal NOT happening, and then subtracting that from 1. This would give us: Prob of getting at least one franchise QB over 10 attempts = 1 - Probability of never getting a franchise QB over 10 attempts Z = 1 - Yn Z = 1 - (0.9375)10 Z = 1 - 0.52446 Z = 0.47554 = 47.55%

You had me here

I don't know, maybe I'm reading too much into this, but I think it's more likely than not that Gay makes the team because they just re-signed him to a 2 year, $1.11M contract on March 9th. It happened on the same day we re-signed Hughes so it flew under the radar; well...because of that, and the fact that he's a kickoff specialist Edit: Looks like there's no guaranteed money, so I could see him getting replaced if we need the roster spot