Thurman#1

We have not run many sneaks when the D was going with two 1-techs. By far most of our sneaks came with one empty 1-gap. And yeah, if we had done something else people would have said that. Beside the point. When the D has three guys crammed into the middle there, there is a weakness somewhere else. I would answer this but I already did just above. Look for the post that mentions Matt Damon, directly above the post you just replied to. If you look at all situations sneaks have a high percentage of success. If you look only at bad situations - and this was a bad situation for a sneak - the percentage is much lower. And the home team is the favorite in most games too. But not this game. The Bills are the better team and the odds would have been even or slightly in the Bills favor. The Bills should have been quite confident they would win it, especially after a rest for the defense before the overtime.

He's right, it's not believable. We scored as many points as they did. We held them to as few points as we had managed. It would have been even odds, probably we'd have been favored a bit, as we were in the game. And yet again, the reason sneaks succeed at such a high rate is that teams aren't ready for them, one of the 1-gaps is empty. In this situation that play was absolutely not an 80 - 90% chance. Not even close.

Completely misses the point. Every sneak is different. Most sneaks come on plays where there is only one 1-tech. Meaning the gap on either the left or right side of the center doesn't have a man in it. And yeah, especially with nobody in one of those gaps, the conversion possibility is high. The Titans thought a sneak was probably the most likely thing the Bills would call. They were ready. They had two guys playing 1-tech, meaning the center had a guy right on each shoulder and there was a 3-tech between Dawkins and Feliciano as well. The Titans were completely ready for this. In some situations it's a great call and the possibility of success is high. This was NOT one of those times. The analogy is that you can study a fairly handsome, smooth guy's success rate in asking out women he doesn't know. And maybe his conversion possibility is 75%. But if this time he's asking out Luciana Barroso, who is both spectacularly beautiful and happily married to Matt Damon, his odds on a conversion are not 75% in this case. Same here. Awful situation. They did not have a 75% chance with the defense set up as it was. This was gutsy, but in the situation it was not smart. If you have a choice between gutsy and smart, go with smart. Allen will learn, but this was a bad decision. Just read in another thread that Allen admits to changing the play. Wasn't McDermott's or Daboll's call. McDermott absolutely has evolved, but this was a bad decision, by Allen. I'd have kicked the FG myself, but at least would have called a different play. Daboll/McDermott did.

That's not the problem. Go look at how the Titans lined up. They had a guy in each of the center-guard gaps and a guy between Feliciano and Dawkins, all really tight. They were running into a 2 on 3 for Feliciano and Morse. That tight, it was a horrible setup. Two 1-techs and a 3-tech on the left. The reason Brady has such a high sneak success rate is because when he sees the defense set up like that he audibles to something attacking somewhere else.

Thing is, it's like asking what a guy's success rate is with asking a woman out on dates, finding out it's 80%, and thinking that therefore if he asks out Beyonce, Ariana Grande and Gal Godot out his chances of getting at least one yes is close to absolute. Every woman is different. Every sneak situation is different. An awful lot of his successful sneaks have come when there was no defender in one of the center-guard gaps because they weren't ready for a sneak. The Titans were ready. But with a first down and 18 seconds left and the clock stopped with that final timeout, you throw in the end zone and get a TD or an incompletion each time and you have probably three or four plays. It wasn't a brain fart at all, or at least not for that reason. If we'd been successful we'd have been just fine on time.

No, we have zero percent chance to win. His exact quote was that he "would rather lose that way than ". Again, "lose that way." After you've lost, you have zero chance. That's nuts, preferring aggressive losing to having a chance to win. So, no, I would have just about an infinite preference for having a tie with a chance to win than having a loss. I find it hard to imagine why anyone would not feel the same. I don't think going for the sneak was a horrible call. But seeing how they lined up specifically to take away the sneak, they should have kicked the FG or at least tried another play. I would have, anyway. I genuinely hate the whole "I liked the guts" thing. Guts means squat. Smart is much much better. It takes real guts to take off your helmet and run into a brick wall head first time and time again. Guts. Aggressiveness. Courage. And complete insanity and stupidity. It's much much better to judge whether to do something based on how smart it is than how much guts it would take. Hopefully you're right that it won't derail the season. It seems that way to me too. Oh, and Beasley wasn't open in the end zone till after Josh crossed the line of scrimmage. That's why he was alone, the Titans all came running up after he crossed it. You can see it on the broadcast angle (I went back and looked on nflgamepass. When Josh crosses the LOS, Beasley is about to cross the goal line and he's covered.) When Josh crosses the LOS, Beasley is in the frame.

Um, think you ought to check that one again. 237 at the combine. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/2018-combine.htm You may be thinking of the other Josh Allen, the one who is a defensive lineman. That guy, now a Jax Jaguar, was indeed 262 at the combine. And I don't think that situation put the analytics on our side. They were prepared for the sneak. They had a guy in each of the guard-center gaps and another on the other side of the LG between Dawkins and Feliciano. So both the center and the LG had a guy on each shoulder. If you catch a team unawares with one of those gaps not covered, yeah, the odds are way in your favor. They weren't on this play.

You can trust Cletus Purcel, long as you're not trusting him to stay sober. in any case, a lot of people talk about loving aggressive play calls. No, thanks. Smart ones, yeah. But any aggressive call? No, no thanks. The Titans had a guy on the gap each side of the center and another on the other side of the LG. With the defense that well lined up to defend a sneak, they should have kicked it, or at least had Allen head out to one side with a choice to throw or run. I love it when they sneak when there's nobody in one of the center-guard gaps. Those situations present fantastic odds. This one not so much.

I disagree on that too. Just went and watched it again. He had to run forward and but through a narrow opening, and he had to look down to get through it. At the end of the opening there was a Titan reaching towards him on Josh's ball hand side, and he had to be really careful to protect it. He was running forward at the time and by the time he recovered throwing position and got his head up (a step and a half or so), he was past the LOS. And just for the record, when he passed the LOS, Beasley wasn't open yet. Part of the reason Beasley was open was because the Titans saw Josh couldn't throw it and came pelting up to stop him.

No, you can't fumble forward, and particularly not in the last two minutes of a half. If you could you'd see everyone being tackled fumbling forward if their team was behind on third or fourth down. Those fumble rules come from the holy roller. If you fumble forward out of bounds it's spotted where the fumble occurred. Again, if that wasn't so, everyone would fumble forward every time they were going out of bounds to pick up a few extra yards. More, it simply wasn't a fumble. No way. You're down when any part of your body but the bottom of your feet or the hand without the ball touches the ground. When his back hit the ground, he was down, and he had control then and until his ball hand went down and hit him in the chest. It was not a fumble. It was not a first down.

He's not 260. I've seen it everywhere from 237 to 250, but it's most likely low to middle of that range. The other Josh Allen, the DE, runs around 255. Are you thinking of him? Our Josh is a big strong dude, but he's been stopped on sneaks before. And if he didn't slip, he still wasn't getting the yardage there. Might possibly have been able to change direction or something, but they had it stopped.

Um, no thanks. After the tie we have a chance to win. I don't think it was an awful decision, but I kick the field goal there every time.

Yeah, I never heard them mention Josh Allen, not even once.

He didn't make it. It was really obvious in slo-mo. I wondered the same thing at first, but he didn't. He fumbled the ball well behind the line.

Sure, as soon as players start being suspended for idiotic plays or fans for idiotic takes.

Nope. He's not getting good. He's getting even better. Same with Lotulelei. And yeah, that's a wonderful thing.

He actually is. https://awfulannouncing.com/orig/the-2020-nfl-announcer-rankings.html https://awfulannouncing.com/orig/the-2019-nfl-announcer-rankings.html www.sportingnews.com/us/other-sports/list/best-sports-broadcasters-analysts-nfl-nba-mlb-football-nhl-nascar/c3spcs4zn0iq1u34iszrjgbut/28 The guy has 16 Emmy awards, for Pete's sake. Nine for outstanding sports studio analyst and seven for outstanding event analyst. That doesn't mean he (or anybody) does a great job every week, but he absolutely is a very fine announcer.

'Fraid not. He didn't have a very good game, but he's one of the best out there. Well behind Romo, but he's solid. We've had threads on him earlier in the year. He's respected.

That may well be true in terms of shoe size. Beyond that, it's a bit nuts, friend. 🙂

You're kidding yourself. It was always like this. People don't want to hear about the best team. They want to hear the best story. The two are often the same but not always. The fall of the king is generally a better story than somebody new being good. Your memory is wrong if you think there wasn't more about the Cowboys around back in the '70s and '80s because they were America's team. Whether they sucked that year or not. In any case, there's a ton about the Bills all over the news right now.

No, not at all. Here's an article from before the 2017 season by Zierlein listing Allen as the #2 QB prospect for after that season after Darnold. https://www.nfl.com/news/sam-darnold-josh-allen-lead-top-cfb-qbs-to-watch-in-2017-0ap3000000819400 Here's an October 2017 article where Kiper and McShay both say he's a top 15 guy despite his step backwards that he was suffering at this point. https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2017/10/13/mel-kiper-todd-mcshay-still-think-josh-allen-is-a-top-15-prospect/ Here's one from August 25th, before the 2017 season, listing Allen as the 9th best CFB player: https://www.nfl.com/news/top-150-college-football-players-for-2017-nos-1-10-0ap3000000808316 Here's an article pointing out a Schefty quote: "Allen's anonymity ended almost immediately after the final selection of the 2017 NFL draft was made on April 29, when ESPN reporter Adam Schefter said: "There was one personnel director who told me this week that you can put in the books, Josh Allen will be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft next year." The quote's near the top of the article. Also says he almost turned pro that year, he actually told his agent he would but that he decided it just didn't feel right after all. https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20117075/wyoming-cowboys-josh-allen-goes-unknown-no-1-pick-nfl-draft-buzz "Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, a rising junior, is on his way from OVERLOOKED FARM BOY TO THE TOP PICK of the 2018 NFL draft" (May 15th, 2017) "But everyone is taking notice of Allen now. On Jan. 9, agents beat a path past the rows of cotton and cantaloupes on the family's 2,000-acre farm to sit in the Allens' living room. When Clemson beat Alabama for the national title, Josh watched the game with six representatives from mega-agency CAA. Though college players aren't allowed to sign with agents, they are allowed to take informational meetings. LaVonne served them pizza as the CAA reps broke down everything their company might do for Allen should he decide to turn pro. That night he decided his lone season as the starter at Wyoming was preparation enough. After one year at Reedley he had transferred to Wyoming, where in 2016 he threw for 3,203 yards with 28 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, leading the Cowboys to the top of the Mountain Division in the Mountain West. He called some of his receivers and told them he'd break the news to Cowboys coach Craig Bohl in the morning. "As soon as I made that decision, anxiety started running through my body," Allen says. "I didn't sleep one ounce, one bit, one hour, one second that night." https://vault.si.com/vault/2017/05/15/no-one-no-1 He really did impress scouts at the Senior Bowl, though, I remember that. He'd cleaned up his mechanics a bit in his sessions with Jordan Palmer, and it showed. But people were absolutely already watching. His poorer year in 2017 may actually have made him a better player but a lower pick. No way to say that for sure, but it's certainly possible. I think it was Mayock who said he'd never seen a guy help himself more in the pre-draft process than Allen did. A lot of that was Josh's personality, smarts and determination, but a lot was also his work with Palmer. If he'd done that the year before, who knows?

They are, they've been really really productive. Excellent pass blockers both. The concern is fumbles for 26. I don't think they will bring anyone in, myself.

Yeah, such a good pick. Looks to be a Bills stalwart for a decade.

Yeah, I think he actually meant that after 2016 Josh was several times projected as the #1 pick, and then after 2017 he dropped a bit. I think there's a decent chance he might indeed have gone earlier than 7th if he'd left the year before. In 2016 he was surrounded by significantly better talent. After 2016 his completion percentage was 56.0 after previously throwing only 4 college passes. The next year that went up, but by less than one percent, from 56.0% to 56.3%. That can't have looked good to NFL scouts. His Y/A dropped precipitously, from an impressive 8.3 to a poor 6.7. His rating dropped a lot. His TD percentage dropped a lot. His supporting cast got worse, but it just didn't look like he got better, even if he actually did. His yards per rush also dropped quite a bit., from 3.7 YPA to 2.2. The one thing (and it's important but it's about the only thing that improved) was INT %. He threw a lot more safely that second year. IMO he had a good chance to go higher that year when he'd have been up against Mahomes and Trubisky among the top QBs, rather than Darnold, Mayfield and Rosen. At the time, the class he came out in was considered a much stronger class, even if you discounted Allen himself. Far from a sure thing, of course, but my guess is that he could easily have gone higher, with people worrying deeply about lack of experience but taking him on potential.

Yeah, I'm aware it was last week. That's why I wrote that the wife is now playfully pointing out that I owe her $100. She would have won, but I couldn't get the bet down. If it wasn't clear, I'll correct it to make it easier to understand. Sorry.