Thurman#1

Alert the Louvre. Incoming.

Nice!

I know. A lot to digest.

The problem isn't playing golf. It's when you do it. It's whether or not you've earned it, and it probably also relates to how hard you work during the week. I doubt any coach would have a problem with golfing in the offseason, as an example. The reason the Bills crushed them has a lot to do with poor QB play and a much better roster. Flores appears to be a damn good coach, and he over-achieved there.

No. He's very very good at his job. But it won't be a disaster. With a good choice for replacement it shouldn't hurt too badly.

The fans want a dome if they don't have to pay for it. I'm sure the Pegulas would say the same. And by the way, I want a date with Halle Berry and Emma Watson.

Sanders isn't under contract for next year, or at least not a real contract. He'll be $2M in dead money if I remember quickly, and we can't save that by cutting him. So if he's not here we save nothing from the way our situation is already set up on Spotrac for next year. Same for McKenzie. We don't save $7.5M if we cut Beasley. He would still be on the books for $1.5M in dead cap. Let all three of them go and the available cap total for 2022 goes from 9.28M to $15.351M. Total. Right now, Spotrac has us with $9.28M in cap available next year. That's with 41 guys under contract, and that's if you include the shadow year for Sanders Of course there are some cuts we would be able to make, but also some FAs we would want to re-sign and a bunch of positions where we'd need depth / upgrade, particularly DL and OL, but not limited to those two areas. So if we left out Bease, Sanders and McK, we'd save about $6M. If he's healthy, I don't think Godwin comes for that. Yes, they could back-weight the contract, but Beane does that in small, limited doses, he's not a congenital can-kicker and he's looking forward to 2023 where the Covid cap cuts finally let us have some decent cap room again. Basically, if you're right about what Godwin will cost, I don't see a chance in hell he ends up here next year. I'm wrong plenty when I predict the future, but I'm very confident about this particular prediction.

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree then. I feel like I've seen very few reps when he did that four yard in where he goes horizontal and does a 180 on the downfield foot and goes backward and was successfully covered. And he could get open doing that route with a ton of separation in just about two seconds. Several other things he does that he's been able to break man coverage with extremely sudden cuts and great route-running. Not this year, though.

Both of these had huge amounts of info and thoughtful speculation. Great stuff, but you have to commit some time, especially for the Cover1 vid. Chris Simms talks to Paul Burmeister about all the games this weekend, with some video and a lot of consideration to scheme and what the Pats might do to better shut down Josh after last time. The Bills-Pats stuff starts at 26:05. Cover1 Breakdown - Erik and Anthony do a lot of video and analysis, for two and a half hours and a ton of detail. They set it up so one did Bills offense vs. Pats defense and the other the opposite. The format was as if a scout/analyst/film guy was presenting about what the opponent would do, what our own tendencies are, and what might be available to us as a result. Hope you enjoy them as much as I did.

Great question! The people staying home because it's cold ... there must be five or six thousand of them, since that's about how many are available on the secondary market. So, hell, that would be plenty to cover the costs. Each of them tosses in somewhere between a hundred thousand and five hundred thousand simoleons, and boom!!

I think a lot of the reason he spent so much in FA this year comes down to luck and reading a situation where he had an advantage. The Pats had a ton of guys opt out in 2020. That left them with a ton of unspent cap meaning they were close to the top of the league last year in available cap. And that happened in a year when there was a Covid-related lack of available cap space all over the league. Meaning that FA demand was low, meaning that FA prices were low in a year when they had a ton of money. Belichick read that and used it. That's why he spent a lot last year, but doing so left him not so much for next year. Next year on the other hand, available cap will be low, but not as low as last year. And Belichick will have a lot less available, around $27M right now according to Spotrac.

Six or seven more years at an absolute maximum, I'd guess. I think unless he gets an excellent quarterback he'll consistently compete for playoffs, make it a lot, and get beaten early. He won't like that as a long-term diet.

What you've got there is an excellent argument for why people are wrong when they say things like "Because I watched the game, that's why I know Allen's much better than people think. Clearly you don't know football." What you've got there is a great example of confirmation bias. You're essentially giving Allen points because you like him. You assume - wrongly - that you know what other QBs would have done there. You don't. You're guessing. Other QBs in that situation escape as well. Perhaps other QBs hit the open safety valve for a 6 yard gain that Allen was rejecting because he wanted a big play. Perhaps they they throw the ball at the ground near a receiver. Do you do the same when Allen makes a play that QBR or passer rating or QB run stats call good? When Allen escapes and runs for three yards, do you say, "stats would have called that a good play, but other QBs might well have hit the outlet and their RB would have run for 7 or 8, so I call that a bad play"? You are doing an excellent job of pointing out one of the problems of "the eye test."

Fair enough. But is that because he is being asked to run shorter routes? Or that he's not getting thrown to deeper because he's not getting open when he goes deeper? Or that he's being asked to run shorter routes because he's not getting open deeper? Or some combination of the above? Perhaps with other factors. I don't think this in fact does help much in telling if that's on Beasley or the routes he's being asked to run. What we can be sure of is that there's a loss of productivity there. Ah, I see you already addressed all this, a lot. I have the same feeling when I see McKenzie run. And in past years Beasley's quickness popped the same way to me. I just don't see it this year. And that's something that the Belichicks of the world can use. He's still really good at attacking zone, but the fantastic thing about him used to be that he was really good at handling both zone and man-to-man, and that no longer seems to be the case.

Thanks, great post. Your meaning in relation to my post is totally clear to someone somewhere, I'm sure. Thing is you're comparing two guys, Berrios and Beasley. Comparing them, you compare Berrios who is an upgrade and would - you're probably right - get market rate, vs. Beasley who is being paid more than his - current - market rate after his performance drop. And again you seem absolutely desperate to avoid any mention of the fact that Berrios is a terrific returner, one of which we do NOT seem to have on this team. He adds value there too. You don't want him, fine. Everybody's got an opinion. But with a friendly cap contract they might well save money next year with Berrios replacing Beasley while getting an upgrade and a returner.

Yes, we do. They're about the many selfish and entitled things he's done this year, and the distractions which simply did not exist before these past two years, at least unless you found poor rap songs distracting. Not to mention that the less outstanding you play, the less acceptable selfishness and entitlement seem to management.

He's good. I certainly wouldn't mind. But next year we're going to be very limited in cap space, and have some real holes to fill, especially on the lines. If they can fit Godwin in with whatever else they need and can fit, I wouldn't mind one bit, of course.

Nope, not even them. Really think that team was only three points better than the 8-8 Eagles that year. Only three points better than the 5-11 Ravens? Same with the 1972 Dolphins. Even winning every game doesn't mean you played up to your talent level every game. Was that Fins team only two points better than the 7-7 Vikes? One point better than the 4-9-1 Bills? Four points better than the 7-7 Jets?

They aren't talking about only this year. Tice was teammates with Feliciano years ago in Oakland!!! And he played a lot in Weeks 1-8, a bit on STs in Week 14 and just a few plays each in Weeks 17 and 18.

Right. And how has the offensive played most of the season? Not very well. Though Bates has also been good.

This is excellent stuff generally, on such things as how quickly the whole NFL started going to Cover-2 to handicap Allen and Mahomes and those teams playing the offenses getting a lot of chunk plays. Skip the first ten minutes if you don't like the movie Casino and pro wrestling references. But the part that was interesting to me was this nugget on Feliciano. I've never understood the fact that he's not all that athletic, and he's strong but not super strong, and yet the Bills seem to play better when he's in there than they do with other guys who seem to play more athletically. Prohaska's guest is Nate Tice, "a former college QB, NFL coach and scout". (NOTE: THIS IS THREE WEEKS OLD. IT WAS RECORDED BEFORE THE SECOND PATS GAME!!!) Still really interesting on how the Pats defend us and why Feliciano has stuck around so long!! NT: "Personally, I think Belichick will go into, 'We're cranking up Cover 2, we're gonna push the pocket," and I actually do think he'll throw in some blitzes just to test that Bills offensive line. And you don't know how Feliciano - 'cause Feliciano helps out so much as far as calls. And I know that from personal experience with Jon, I was with him in Oakland. And I know he's a big tough bruiser guy, but he's actually very heady. And he helps out Morse with the protection stuff. And I just know that anecdotally. But you can see the difference when he's in and when he's not in and just pointing out stuff out. He might be limited as an athlete and everything. But he helps out mentally and calming you down." AP: "Which is a huge piece of the offensive line game, that mental side and protection-setting and front recognition in terms of who's coming. I mean, it happened against Carolina and it happened against Tampa, just using the two most recent examples. The Bills are getting beat on just simple stunts. Like the spiker was taking right guard and right tackle and then Shaq Barrett two weeks ago and Brian Burns this past weekend read it and were both like 'All right, cool, I'm just going to come free through this huge hole in this gap and get a sack." NT: "And trust me, Belichick sees that stuff." - Nate Tice starts at 32:25

I'm guessing Fitz and Dalton would be too expensive next year. Webb and McCoy sound to me like good guesses.

Why? Because Braxton Berrios a good player. You seem to have missed that. Doesn't quite compare to prime Beasley. But neither does today's Beasley. And Berrios is a good kick returner, for KOs and punts. More, Berrios has ... A slightly higher Yards per Reception number and a significantly higher one for this year A drop percentage of 0% this year (ProFootballReference) compared to 3.6% for Beasley. A career (2019 - 2021) drop %age of 3.0%, compared to Beasley's 3.7% over the same period all in Buffalo (ProFootballReference) Significantly better YAC per reception than Beasley each of the last three years A significantly better passer rating for his QB on throws to him this year than to Beasley, though Beasley was better in 2019 and 2012 before he lost that step A much higher TD/target figure ... and he accomplished all that while Beasley was being thrown to by Josh Allen, while Berrios ... was not. Think having Allen throwing to him might improve his numbers a bit? Again, he returns kicks. And as for fiery and opinionated, I don't give a crap. I don't think many fans do. I do admit that I don't like selfish and entitled, willing to pay fines for risking teammate health consistentl, and consistently being on social media causing controversy even after promising he wouldn't. I also don't like that Beasley's clearly lost a step or two and a great deal of his effectiveness against man coverage.

Yup. He's still very good at finding holes in zones and settling into them. But in man-to-man situations, he can't find space like he used to. He's lost a step. Or two.

How many fumbles has McKenzie had this year? Two. Now how many of them were NOT on kick returns? How many fumbles did McKenzie have in 2020? Zero. 2019? Zero? How many fumbles did McKenzie have in 2018? Two. Now how many of them were NOT on kick returns? How many fumbles did McKenzie have in 2017 as a Bronco rookie? Six. Now how many of them were NOT on kick returns? So, that's a total of 10 fumbles. How many were NOT on kick returns? That would be zero, in his whole career. All of his fumbles have come on special teams. McKenzie doesn't have a fumbling problem. He has a FUMBLING WHILE FIELDING AND RETURNING KICKS problem. Not a single fumble on runs or receptions. So yeah, don't have him return kicks anymore. I think they've already figured that out last week. But he protects the ball just fine when running or catching the ball.