Alphadawg7

He actually said the opposite. He said they don’t need to get a true WR1 guy, there is not a need for a “Diggs” like when they traded for him and Josh was still developing. He made clear they are going to get a WR though. Maybe just listen for yourself then rather than say I heard what I wanted to hear when I posted exactly what he said. I didn’t say he has spoken to teams to trade down. He literally said this is the week the phone starts ringing off the hook. He specifically said he has not called anyone about moving in the top 10 and no one has called him either as teams that high generally don’t want to move all the way back to 28.

So you’re saying you don’t actually have a point here…got it lol

Who led the team in receiving once Brady took over and had the only 100 yards games (twice)? Diggs or Shakir? Thanks for playing.

Spot on. This ☝️

Or there is the fact that Josh, McD, and Beane made those two a focal point of being heavily involved along with Kincaid this year. Just like how Shakir and Kincaid were even when Diggs and Davis were here once Brady took over. So yeah, you’re wrong about it being by default

Well I mean it doesn't take a leap in logic to know the hit rate is higher in round 1, that is true for every position and the nature of drafting higher graded prospects. Again, my main point is that there is context to every draft that this type of comparison does not account for which I have already mentioned, and that also includes inaccurate assessments of said drafts going into the draft. Where a class proves a lot stronger or worse than was predicted prior to the draft. All good, just my 2 cents Oddly some people still wanted him this offseason lol...goes to show how long draft hype can survive like a long dwindling candle for some of these guys

I think you missed the point...at least the point I took away from it...and that is maybe what the new look offense will are going to bigger opportunities with YAC between guys like Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid being more heavily involved than force feeding Diggs and the plodding of Davis. And YAC was one of the things specifically mentioned today in the pressers about traits they are looking for.

I mean I gave you examples...and I definitely do not agree about 2021. I did not find that to be a great draft in the day 2 and day 3 range at WR. So all I am saying, every draft is very different. You can't just look at a hit rate from one draft and then equally compare it to the hit rate of the next draft which has totally different level of talent in it, not to mention, total different level of complexity too on how the draft falls based on the strength and weaknesses of other positions affecting teams decisions too.

To be clear I did not at all say he wouldn't do anything. I definitely wasn't saying he wouldn't go get a WR, and he was very clear he intends to go get a WR. What I was actually saying is that its pretty clear that moving to the top 10, at least as of now, to get one of the top 3 seems highly unlikely between what he would have to get up and teams even being willing to move that far down in the first place. And if you put together all his statements, I think its pretty clear a guy like Aiyuk is very unlikely. He said multiple things about now wanting to give up the picks, cap considerations, and Josh not being a place where he feels that is necessary move to make. I mean, all of these are open to interpretations, so doesn't mean I am right...but IMHO its pretty clear that he doesn't have his mind on trading for a proven guy. And the DeVonta deal for $25m per for a WR2 is going to jack the price up even higher for someone like Aiyuk. So I think it has almost no chance of happening. Just my 2 cents though. I woudln't be surprised if he looked into it or if the Niners called Beane though. He was very adamant about not being afraid to move up, but he was referencing more of those smaller move ups that don't cost future first round picks. Now he did say he would trade his first if the deal made sense, and I believe him. But to make sense, I think he needs to really covet that player. So would he go get Thomas? Maybe, they met with him once, so they at least showed interest. But I think 20 or later is the spot where that comes into play, where they can do it and probably not have to give up next years first.

As I mentioned above, I don't think you listened to the interview because no where in the interview did he indicate anything they plan to do. I get what you are saying, I am just saying it doesn't really apply here in that way based on the subjects of conversation.

Well I don't think you listened to the interview. None of the stuff discussed are things that would be misleading teams, being tricky, etc. He was talking the way he always does and the things he was saying are pretty spot on with his time here. People tend to throw this blanket statement out about everything a GM says as if everything they say has some impact on how the draft will fall. None of what they said has any impact really on the draft. And Beane has proven to be pretty honest in the past with the kind of things he was saying today. So I think to disregard it as just "draft smokesreens" is really ignoring Beane's history.

There are no reports of Bills meeting with any of the big 3, and based on Beanes presser, I think there is almost no chance he his eying a move for one. We have however met with BTJ once (at least reported once). However, Beane was pretty adamant about not liking trading future first round picks. While he said he would do it if the deal made sense, it really was not something he wants to or likes to do and referenced the team regretting it when they did so in Carolina. On the flip side, he was very blunt about being aggressive to go get a guy when he gets close enough to make sure they get him. So IMHO, I think moving up for BTJ isn't realistic until he gets to probably at least 20, if he even gets to 20. And there has been some smoke about maybe Pitt and Bills swapping picks at 20. I am even more of that belief when you see the amount of interest they have in other WR's where they have had multiple visits with them like Franklin, McConkey, Coleman, Worthy, etc.

This lacks a lot of context. Not every draft is equal, some drafts are top heavy and weak outside the top guys like 2021 for example. Then others were considered weak for top tier prospects, but very deep for 2nd tier prospects outside round 1 like 2019. The hit rates and miss rates very much follow the patterns of the draft strength/weakness at the position. So this doesn't IMHO dictate a model to follow and really shows you need to understand the strength and weakness of the position in each given draft to know what you need to do if you want to address WR. In a year like 2022 or 2021 where the draft going in was seen as a top heavy WR draft and weak after that, you better making a move to go get a guy. But in a year like 2019, where there wasn't a lot of highly graded guys but a lot of strength in the depth, you are better letting it come to you or even trading back instead of reaching for a N'Keal Harry. This is a very deep draft, there are going to be a lot of guys who become good players outside the first round this draft.

I think there is no chance Kneeland is the pick for the Bills in the first. In the 2nd, yes. Not in the first. Beane literally said while he has more first round grades on players this year than last years weak draft, he specifically stated its still less than 28 players. There is no way Kneeland is one of his first round graded players that probably is around 20 to 22 players. He also said while he would take someone on the DL at 28, it would really depend on who is there and that he feels good about getting one outside the first round. Meaning maybe if one of the top 3 guys get there who are expected to go earlier he would consider it...he isn't talking about Kneeland IMHO. While I am all for them taking Kneeland later, I do not at all think its remotely possible it would be at 28. But, thats just my opinion, anything is possible. But that would be an absolute shock to probably just about everyone as he is currently a round 2 or 3 guy in just about everyones eyes.

https://bleacherreport.com/post/sports-betting/913586c7-723c-4be5-b20a-abdda04c4112 Jayden going 2nd odds decrease and Mayes increase. Like I’ve been saying, I’m hearing Maye is getting momentum in Washington

It definitely came across pretty authentic if you watch the whole interview and I think it’s because he knows for a team to move back to 28 is going to cost a lot as teams won’t have a lot of interest to move back that far, if any at all.

Respectfully disagree, Beane has always been pretty straight forward with this stuff and he is echoing what he has always said and done.

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/your-team-has-to-evolve-bills-general-manager-brandon-beane-speaks-ahead-of-the-2024-nfl-draft-buffalo-bills Take aways: I do not think Beane is even thinking about moving into the top 10 to get one of the big 3 WR. He said he would take any call, but he also said teams in the top 10 don't generally call teams down at 28. When asked about him calling them, he mocked them even wanting to take his call and made it clear he hasn't called them. Worth noting as well, Bills have no reported visits or meetings with MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze. We did reportedly meet once with Thomas. He is not a fan at all of moving a future first, which I will cover in comments below. I think he made it pretty clear as well that we are not going to be trading for a proven guy such as Aiyuk or Higgins as many have been wanting. Specifically said when we traded for Stef, Allen was an ascending player and the offense needed a guy like that. But that now with Allen ascended to the player he is, that is not a requirement and not necessary. He made it clear he is very comfortable making a small trade up to make sure he can get the guy he covets. So if there is one he wants where a small move up to go get him is on the table, I think he will pull that trigger. He also made it very clear he really does NOT want to move next years 1st, but did admit he would if the deal made sense to do it. Referenced regretting those kind of moves in the next draft when they did them in Carolina when the next draft came and the guy they gave up that first didn't really get them over the top. He also doesn't plan to move the 2nd we got for Diggs, but wouldn't rule it out if they felt the right deal was there. Between Josh, McD and Beane interviews, I think it was pretty clear they have a lot of confidence in the core of Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook. It is clear we are going after a WR in first 2 rounds, but I would not expect us to go back to back WR or take 2 early as some around here have suggested. If we take a 2nd one, I would expect it later like rounds 4 and on. Beane made it clear that trading back is very much in play at 28 and pointed out if they couldn't get Kincaid they had a real good trade back worked out he really liked. Also added he would love to add someone on the DL that can contribute this season. While he said it could be in the first, would have to see what is there at 28 in general, but went on to say he sees guys outside the first in this draft that can come in and contribute this year. So what I came away with is that I think there is very little chance we are making a move to get MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze. It was also clear it was just as unlikely we are going after someone like Aiyuk, Higgins, etc either. And that has been my belief all along as well. While I wouldn't say that anything he said rules out moving up into the teens to get Thomas (like say Jags at 17), I think it's a low possibility he goes up outside the 20's. The thing that most often stuck out was the reluctance on using high future picks to move up. I think Beane really likes the idea of having a first and two 2nd's next year and really prefers not trading them. And I do think that trading back is a very strong possibility for us to try and get a 3rd this year or maybe even a third 2nd for next year. All in all this was a good listen...and Beane has a track record for being pretty straight forward and candid on these things, so I think he is shooting pretty straight with his comments like he always has.

I am about to post a recap of Brandon Beanes press conference today. One of the take aways is that I think there is no chance he will be trading for an established WR. He specifically addressed how when we got Diggs, it was what the team needed with Allen being an ascending player. Then he very specifically stated that with Josh at the level he is now that he does not believe he needs that like he did when they went and got Diggs. So I think you can scratch off any kind of trade for an established WR. I do like McConkey too, and I believe the Bills do as well since McConkey stated publicly he has met with them like 3 times now. But I went Franklin for 2 reasons...I don't think McConkey reaches us on that trade down and I do think there is substance to the Bills being high on Franklin.

I don't know if he will be the pick, but they have shown significant interest in Coleman who also personally stated that of all his interviews the one with the Bills was the stand out one that went the best. The WR's they have shown the most interest in from meetings with them would be from what I can gather Franklin, Coleman, McConkey, Worthy, and Mitchell. They did meet with Thomas, but reportedly only once and no reports of any meetings with the big 3.

My personal opinion this is unrealistic. I can not see Beane investing that much into one position of WR in this draft. Beane just spoke to the media today and one thing was very clear, he really isn't keen on moving next year picks to move up. He did say he would if the deal made sense, but he said in Carolina when they would do that they often found themselves regretting it the next year based on how the player turned out and who was on the board at the pick they would have had. So anyone who thinks Beane is gonna trade up for Thomas and the for the 2nd time trade up into 3rd to get another WR is just not in touch with Beane and his draft philosophy. He will pull the trigger on Thomas if he wants him, he said as much, that if the guy and the trade make sense, he isn't afraid to do it. But it was crystal clear they really need to want that guy to make a big move like that. And there is just no way after a move like that he is going to again trade up for another WR leaving him short on assets both this year and next year to help fill out other areas of big need. Beane was also very clear he is high on Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook. So I don't think he feels this need or pressure to have to add 2 early.

I took Austin in the first TSW mock with the Commanders, I really like him as a day 3 pick. Unfortunately, I don't think the Bills will have a shot at him unless they make some moves as I think the upside is too strong and someone is going to take him in the 3rd. If he gets to us in the 4th, I would love this pick. He is a classic low floor but high ceiling pick, and I think he is worth the gamble.

Yeah, too much is made by fans and media over 40 times...and even fools some teams (like Al Davis notoriously would bite for 40 times over tape). Larry Fitzgerald was considered a cant miss WR and one of the highest graded WR's to come out the last 30 years and his 40 time was 4.64. He went on to live up to the hype and had a HOF career. Cooper Kupp is a 4.64 guy as well. Keenan Allen fell because he ran a 4.71. Speed is great, but its not the end all be all its made out to be. Meanwhile guys like John Ross get over drafted because they ran fast in shorts in a straight line with no one defending them. Polk at 4.54 is plenty fast enough to excel as a WR in the NFL, and he plays fast on the field and has good stop and go and quick cut speed to go along with his precise route running. But most importantly, his body control and ball skills is 2nd to only Odunze, and its a close 2nd. So his ability to adjust to the ball, to make contested catches, and catch in traffic just adds to his value. Funny you mention Ravens, because in my mock draft thread on the board right now I have Ravens taking Polk at 30. He gives them that big catch radius guy but also is probably the best blocking WR in the draft which really has value on a team like the Ravens. His tape on blocking alone was very impressive on top of what he can do as a WR. I also keep hearing Chiefs are very high on him and he could go to them at 32 as well if he doesn't go to Ravens.

IMHO I think the new KO rule moved Worthy up the Bills board personally. This new KO rule is bringing kick returns back and its going to come with the highest percentage of KO returns for TD's in the history of the league IMHO. So having a Worthy back there with his speed where even the slightest crease and its to the house is going to add to his value. Not saying we are investing an early pick just on a KR guy, but the bonus value of what he can bring there I think increases his value to a team. Worthy excelled in Punt returns in college, but didn't spend much time a kick returner. However the new rules will make the transition easy, and he was a weapon in Punt returns.