Alphadawg7

Yeah, like I said, scared - thats the literal definition of scared. Well too bad for you then given that there is almost no way that happens to where neither Chiefs and Ravens make playoffs. The entire premise of this thread is based on something almost certainly not going to happen. And here is the kicker - There is no reason the Bills cant be the 1 seed even if Ravens and Chiefs by some weird circumstance both missed the playoffs. I get it is a "what would you prefer" thread, but I prefer we trade for Justin Jefferson too, still not likely to happen. Still, the statistically correct answer is always take the 1 seed, even if the alternative is not having both Chiefs and Ravens in playoffs. Neither team is what they were last year.

For some reason? I have made the reason very clear. 1 less game, and both games at home with no road travels for the team giving them more rest and more time to prepare is an obvious advantage. Not to mention, we have beaten KC more than we lost to them, and just handedly beat them last week. We have beaten the Ravens more than we have lost to them, including beating them every time we played them in the playoffs. But you are for some reason so scared of them that you would rather play more games, make the team travel giving them less rest and less prep time too. Not to mention, less time to mend injuries from a long season. There is no logic that makes that make sense for me, literally can't fathom how that is "easier". To collectively be afraid of two teams who have a 5-4 record and a 3-5 record that we already both beat this year and also beat the Ravens last year in the playoffs. We also should have won the AFCCG too, but the KC game got flipped by refs when they changed a 3 point loss by doing an 11-15 point score flip in the 4th quarter when they twice took away a Bills first down on the same series within 2 plays of each other. So no, I don't fear KC or Balt, especially not this year and not enough to take on an extra playoff game and insure they are all on the road. And quite frankly, the "alternatives" to KC and Balt are not exactly slam dunks themselves, and you have to win 3 times and on the road too.

I already said that Philly is the one game in question, didn't say they are going undefeated, just said that is the only game in question. The Patriots will lose control of the division back to us when we handle business in the next game against them, and make no mistake about it, we will beat them by multiple scores. Not sure why you think the Bucs and Texans are losses - the Bucs middling playoff team who lost to the better teams in the NFC against Philly and Lions - and the Texans are not even a playoff team. I promise you without question the Bills will be clear favorites in both those games, any loss would be an upset.

https://vikingsterritory.com/2025/news/top_news/vikings-fans-2-free-agents - Ive been hearing the Vikings interest a few weeks now, makes a lot of sense with the Flores connection. There is also some talk the Jags could pursue Wilkins after missing out on trying aggressively to get Quinnen Williams. End of the day, we should be looking into him if I am Beane, even get him in for a workout like the Jags are rumored to be interested in doing as well.

I agree with this - if I see Wilkins sign with Balt, KC, Indy, Den, or an NFC contender I will be pissed we didn't do it given the talent and our need, not to mention the low risk. If no one does, then I will still be like maybe we should have, but can't really be mad as there is probably more we don't know that is keeping him off a roster.

Literally, the 1 seed gets the easier schedule, what are we even talking about here? What we are doing in this thread is manufacturing scenarios to manipulate it in a way that the 5 seed faces easier competition. Does anyone really believe KC isn't making the playoffs? I find it interesting in a thread that keeps saying KC and Balt are betting faves to win their division that the counter scenario is neither makes the playoffs. The odds of or neither of them making the playoffs is pretty much a pipe dream unless injuries happen. The reality is that whether we get the 1 seed or the 5 seed, KC is certainly going to make the playoffs. Baltimore could also still make the playoffs if they can stay healthy. So there is almost no chance what so ever that the 5 seed this year produces an easier path to the Super Bowl than the 1 seed. Like its almost statistically impossible to happen. And even if it did, that math and statistics will still prove playing one less game and both games at home has a higher chance of reaching a SB than 3 games with 2 to 3 on the road.

And then Philly trounced KC. So they still beat the best to win the Trophy. But if you take out Denver, which means we are the 1 seed, that means Balt and KC would have played each other round 2, so our path is not Balt then KC. It means we play only one of them in the AFCCG and played someone else 2nd round. So our path is easier by having the 1 seed than it was having to go through 3 games last year. So you are only proving the point that the 1 seed is in fact better. And you quite frankly cannot compare Philly's path to ours, they are a different conference, and the overall talent of the NFC teams vs AFC teams were not equal last year with AFC having way more depth of hard teams than the NFL did. So there was never a path that was going to be harder for Philly or any team in the NFC last year compared to whoever made it the SB in the AFC. By the way - this notion that the 1 seed is "to be the best you beat the best" is inaccurate. By default, the 1 seed has the easier schedule.

No offense, but all math and statistics say other wise, and if you polled every GM and HC in the NFL they would agree that the 1 seed in its current format is a SUBSTANTIAL advantage and its why every single teams primary goal is to win that if they are in contention for it. You will never (and never have) see a team intentionally give up a seed with a bye in it because they think it gives them an "easier" path in the playoffs. The mere idea of forcing a 3rd playoff game, guaranteeing 2 are on the road, over a bye and 2 home games is pretty silly TBH.

I get what you are trying to do - but there is no SoS (strength of schedule) you can create that offsets the massive advantage of the 1 seed. The 1 seed since going to a 17 game season and adding more playoff teams has become a colossal advantage. It was a big advantage before, but its colossal now. With the guys already playing an extra game in the regular season, getting the free pass to the 2nd round to let guys get healthy and also avoid any new injuries in the first round of the playoffs is massive. Not to mention home field advantage. Now apply that to actual Bills this year and it becomes miles apart - Bills final season in the stadium, so every home game could be our last game ever played there. The energy is going to be something that can never be replicated again. But - and maybe more importantly - not only does it give us time for guys to heal up who may be banged up, it gives us one more week to get Ed Oliver back. And if we are going to face a team like Indy in 2nd round, being at home to disurpt and rattle Danny Dimes and have Ed Oliver back facing a tough Indy OL and run game is going to be massive. No disrespect, again I get what you are trying to do, but IMHO there is no path that is so much "easier" to offset the massive value of the 1 seed, not even if we were given the choice to see KC and Balt out of the playoffs all together if we gave up the 1 seed.

Only game in question is Philly. That one can go either way, we can beat them and they can beat us. Tough opponent. But outside that one game, we will win the rest of the games we don't sit our starters (like if we sit them week 18 or somethng). We already smacked down Carolina and KC. We will beat Miami by multiple scores. Tampa is not close to the team it was earlier in the year, we will beat them cleanly. Houston is a bad team with a tough defense. We will win comfortably. Pittsburgh will be a comfortable win. Cincy isn't on our level and we will score 40+. We will be NE by multiple scores, and would have the first time if we didn't self inflict wounds. Cleveland is an easy win. Jets is a slam dunk if we need to win that game.

If KC and Ravens are the betting favorite to win their division, then why are the only 2 scenarios ones where either both win the division or both miss the playoffs entirely? Seems more plausible that 1 may win the division and the other a wildcard, both wildcards, or one makes the playoffs and one misses. But besides that, I don't think the path is as easy as you think it is outside KC and Ravens. Denver has a legit defense and a mobile QB, things that have caused problems for the Bills before. Indy's offense is the exact kind of offense that eats against this defense - great run game, mobile QB, and guys who we typically struggle to cover in Pittman and Warren. And they just improved the weakest part of their defense, which was already pretty solid before hand, with adding Sauce (even though they over paid). And as much as people crapped on Sauce after the trade, a lot of people said the same thing when Rams traded for Ramsey who went on to be rejuvenated and helped them win a SB and was back to his early form. So don't be surprised if Sauce looks more like his earlier self on a winning team after being stuck in football purgatory with the Jests. But none of that really matters in this question - Its statistically less likely for us to make and win the Super Bowl having to play 3 playoff games with at least 2 on the road vs playing only 2 games, both at home. There is no SoS that will erase the statistical advantage having to play 1 less game and playing all games at home. The mathematically correct answer is 1 seed, and we have proven we can beat both KC and the Ravens, so there should be no reason to fear them so much in the playoffs that we take on the risk of playing 3 games and at least 2 of them on the road.

Getting back to the original question though - there is only one correct answer. And its not close. It is always the 1 seed. The value of playing 1 game less can not be over stated, not to mention playing every game at home. And home field will be extra charged this year with every home playoff game potentially the last game ever in our stadium. But just playing one less game is the true value. Honestly any other answer is statistically incorrect as our odds to make the Super Bowl are substantially higher with a 1 seed than anything else. People picking wild card and facing teams like Indy doesn't really make a lot of sense to me - I mean Indy is more of a matchup problem for us than KC at this point. Our run D vs Taylor is not a matchup I want to see in the playoffs. And while Indy over paid, they also just added Sauce to shore up one of the weaker parts of an already pretty solid defense. 1 seed all day, and twice on Sundays.

Ravens still have to play the Steelers twice in their division and the Bengals twice, who could have Burrow back for both Bengal games. Ravens defense is still not good and they just beat 2 bad teams to get to 3 wins. I don't trust the Ravens to win that division. Is it possible, sure, but I have a hard time thinking they are the favorite to win it right now. Derrick Henry is not the same guy he was last year, that OL isn't great, and their weapons still aren't great. Last year, the Ravens had the #1 defense in the AFC after they shifted Kyle for like the final 11 games of the year, and they had Henry having one of the best seasons of his era. They don't have either of those things right now, and while I don't think the Steelers are all that great either, they are 2 games up and still face Ravens twice where if they just split its going to be really hard for Ravens to win the division unless they run table outside that game and Steelers go on a skid. Personally I think Baltimore is going to come up at least a game short of the division and it they split with both Pitt and Cincy, then they may not even make the playoffs if they lose one of NE or GB games. Im not counting the Ravens out, they still got Lamar, but they are going to have to play near perfect football to over take Steelers and in the final stretch they play Cincy 2x (who may have Burrow back too), Division leader Steelers 2x (who just trounced Indy), Green Bay, and New England. They also play the Browns one more time, who even though lost bad to the Ravens earlier in the year, they are still a team thats upset them before, has a tough D, and has a better run game now so can't just assume its a cake walk either.

Curious, why are these the only options? We very much could win the 1 seed, and if we do its unlikely the Chiefs win their Division and pretty much a certainty the Ravens won't win their division. So its much more plausible if we are the 1 seed, KC is a wildcard and Ravens maybe are a wildcard, they have low odds to even make the playoffs in general.

I can edit it, it was just poking fun at the trade that happened but yet never happened lol. I will edit though out of respect of your request - Cheers

AB, after fleeing to Dubai, for what I assume is for their Chocolate when no charges were filed after the incident after the boxing match, was arrested by US marshals who brought him back to NJ and is now headed to FL to face attempted murder charges.

Ive watched him run wide open this year and not get the ball, like I have seem Moore do too. Diggs - on pace for 1400+ season, Brady takes over and his YPC dips below 10 and he puts up less yards than Shakir despite double the targets the final 7 games. MVS - Deep ball guy Brady didn't use. Goes to NO and starts catching bombs immediately after we cut him during the season. Harty - was Shaheed type role in NO before Shaheed. We didn't use him at all and was like he wasn't even on the roster. Samuel - 776 yards per year average over 5 seasons on 2 teams, but he is a ghost in Brady's offense. Moore - 4.35 speed guy who has been able to produce with atrocious QB's but barely sees any productivity here. At some point, when is it more the OC's offense than the player? And quite frankly, I have seen Samuel and Moore getting open and not getting the targets this year. So to send 3 picks as you suggested (2 4ths and a 5th) for another gadget guy when Brady hasn't used the 5 downfield threat guys we have had on our roster since he took over mid season 2023 makes no sense at all. Like I said, I would have been fine if Shaheed became the next fast gadget WR we don't use enough, but I would have been furious if we wasted 3 draft picks to do it.

Yeah, he wishes they threw him the ball when he keeps getting open, but we don't. Samuel: Before Buffalo, he played 7 seasons between Carolina and Wash. His rookie year he was a bench guy and wasn't used much. His first in Washington he got hurt and barely played. The other 5 seasons Samuel averaged 776 total yards per season (some were in 16 game seasons). Shaheed has never had a single season even achieving Samuels 5 year average. His best season he put up 756 yards (and that was in a 17 game season). Just because Buffalo is not using him does not mean he can't produce. But you are right though, I would bet he does wish Buffalo used him so he could average at least that, and it would still be his lowest averages of his career still.

I have been saying for weeks they need to identify one of Samuel or Moore (preferrably Moore) to focus on getting involved as a receiving threat. He has the speed and downfield ability, they need to use at least one of them more than they do now, and splitting time between the 2 is not how Allen and them will build chemistry and timing. So push one more, and I think it should be Moore, and we need to start making an effort to prioritize getting him involved as a receiver and further down field instead of all the short stuff they do with both of them. Another thing is Allen needs to have better pocket presence than he had during some of the rough patches too so he can see and take the opportunities that are there. For example in addition to the one you showed, Samuel was also wide open on the final pass in the NE loss where Allen dropped back into what would have been a clean pocket, and had he stood in the pocket he has Samuel for an easy TD or at least near TD. Instead, he gets happy feet despite one of the cleanest pockets of the night and bails and ends up making a scramble drill throw to Shakir that falls incomplete. Now, there was blatant PI against Shakir that wasn't called, so it should have been a first down still, but the point is, Samuel was open deep for an easy throw but Allen just missed the opportunity. I love Allen as much or more than most people, but there have been stretches this year where we have left a lot out on the field with guys open down field. Every time Allen doesn't throw down field or scrambles for time, the first assumption is "no one was open" but when you go back and look at the film, you will see plenty of downfield opportunities that were not seen or not taken that were there. Part of the problem though IS Brady in that regard. I don't know how many press conferences and interviews other people watch, but I watch almost all of them. And if you listen to Brady, Allen, other guys on the offense, etc you will hear that a big part of this offense is running clear outs to scheme certain guys open on a specific play and then if that read isn't there they move to the check downs. This keeps Allen IMHO from seeing things in other parts of the field, because they are not part of his initial progressions and then looks to either extend the play in scramble drill, run, or take a check down. I still want to get a legit WR1 on the outside, dont get me wrong. But there are quite a bit more opportunities than people believe out there in downfield passing game than we are actually taking. Brady clearly without question came in and knew that Allens weakest part of his game was the deep ball accuracy, and he wasn't wrong. He too often either puts the ball in a place that prevents advancing it when the runner has a clear path for a big gain or score, or he misses on the throw or commits a turnover. And Brady isn't wrong - BUT - IMHO, he also OVER corrected. Rather than reducing the reliance on that, he has more taken it out almost entirely. And the numbers don't lie, its been the best offense in Bills history statistically and consistently amongst the top 3 in the NFL. However, this year, he has also seen teams defend what we do better and he struggled with adjustments and countering that. The past 2 weeks have been encouraging though, so hopefully that bye week helped him realize where he needed to be better so Allen and the offense could be better. KC was also Allens best game of the season too, so hopefully we keep building on that rest of the season and be clicking come playoff time.

Haha well played - this was funny, and yet while a fun joke its also quite plausible given the expected strength of the DL class. Only way its a DB though is if there is a Safety there sticking out when we are on the clock. And if WR isn't the first pick, we can still land a WR in rounds 2 or 3, looking around the NFL many of the best WR's in the NFL were not first round picks anyway. So if we did go another direction in the first, I would think based on Beane's intentions this trade deadline that WR would still be an early pick. Outside the draft, one guy I am going to have my eye on this offseason is if DJ Moore is gettable.

2 4ths and a 5th for a guy who has just 2 games in his nearly 4 year career over 100 yards? A guy who is best out of the slot, same position our best WR plays? A guy who is one dimensional in a style that our OC doesn't incorporate much? A guy whose best trait is to catch the kind of passes that are our QB's worst throw? Come on - I would have been fine adding Shaheed, but I would have broke something if we gave 2 4ths and a 5th for a guy who is gonna likely average 400-500 yards per season here.

This is pretty spot on, I agree with pretty much everything you said. Well done

Nah, they just went and got Sauce because he was an upgrade at CB that they needed on a roster competing for the 1 seed.

I think we can say Dallas really did themselves right with the Micah trade and came out on top here already. They traded a one dimensional pass rusher, who at Dallas's peak still wasn't winning with him when they had the #5 defense and #1 offense in the league. They avoided paying him a cap choking $48M (more than most QB's make) per year which would further deteriorate their already not good enough roster due to cap restrictions over time. What they turned Micah into was a multiple pro bowl DT - Kenny Clark, one of the best DT's in football in his prime Quinnen Williams, an extra 1st round pick, and the cap space to keep Pickens - not to mention more cap flexibility to make more moves. Micah Parsons vs 1st round pick, 2 Pro Bowl DT's, Pickens, and cap flexibility. I think its pretty hard to argue against the fact that Dallas did pretty well in the Micah trade. Does it mean Cowboys go on to win a SB, no, they are still the Cowboys and still have other issues. Only one team can win, and they are not that "one" team yet. But, its still a better place for them to be than with Micah and his contract. Meanwhile, Packers are not any better with Micah - and don't really look good enough to likely win their division let alone a Super Bowl. They lost/tied three bad teams in the last 5 games, created a hole at DT, have a $48M cap choking contract restricting their ability to build in FA, and also gave up 2 first round picks reducing their ability to build more talent through the draft. Its still Dallas, I am sure they still wont be going anywhere, but none the less they are in a better position from trading Micah than they would have been keeping him.

Agreed, and honestly I would prefer Gabe Davis to Shaheed who at least also brings elite blocking to a team who very much is designed to utilize that both in the quick passing game and the run game. Plus IMO Gabe is the more accomplished WR with a better deep game and rapport with Allen and cost us nothing to add to the roster. I dont love Gabe as a WR1 or WR2, but as a guy mixing in with this group, he still has a chance to bring value to the team if his knee stuff is behind him.