Alphadawg7

You are completely missing the question and the point though. One of the posters said "no chance" he could amass "1200-1400" yards on the same targets we fed Diggs (160). So the only thing being discussed right now is if he got 60 more targets last year, what would his yards have been. What you think his strengths and weaknesses are is irrelevant to the math question of how many more yards above the 821 yards would he have had if he received 60 additional targets. Unless you think he is going to add 0 yards and 0 receptions with those 60 more targets in his role last year, then how many yards he would have on 160 targets is clearly bigger than the 821 yards he got on his first 100 targets. And based on his actual production last year, that would have been 1313 yards with 60 more targets...and if you used his career averages it would be even higher. Its not an advocation to give him 160 targets, but for anyone to say there is "no chance" he could get to "1200-1400" yards with 160 targets is pretty silly because he clearly could on that many targets and its honestly not really even debatable.

What is being discussed is if Shakir got Diggs same target share (160 targets) compared to the 100 targets he got last year could he hit 1200-1400 yards. He had 821 yards on 100 targets...60 more targets is another 492 yards, which is over 1313 yards. And if you use his career averages it would project to even more yards. And Shakir is actually a really good route runner and the arm thing is maybe one of the most over exaggerated aspects of his game and you would be hard pressed to find many examples on film where this negatively impacted his ability to make a play when given the opportunity. Now will he get 160 targets probably not, and definitely not in this offense as no one will hear under Brady with how they spread the ball around and incorporate the run game. But IF he got 160 yards he clearly would finish in the 1200-1400 yard range, and its not really a question to be honest, its simple math.

Yeah that was my whole point

Yes he would. You don’t think Shakir could get 379 more yards on 60 more targets? Of course he could. Diggs is the better WR in his prime without question, he was legit top 5. Shakir isn’t going to put up the same season as Diggs…But to say Shakir has no chance to get to 1200-1400 yards if he saw 160 targets is just not accurate.

Seems pretty minor luckily

He just continues to do and say all the right things this offseason. Will it translate on the field, we will have to wait and see, but from what is coming out it sure sounds like it already is early, which is an encouraging sign as well.

Brown and Keon each breaking a 1000 yards isn't really comparable though IMHO. Keon breaking 1000 yards in his 2nd season will be more significant in a spread the ball around offense that balances with a run game than John Brown doing it late in his career as an anomaly when we ran a pass happy offense with less options to throw to and lacked a balanced run game. There is more than one way to be a difference maker as a boundary WR, and there are guys who are slower than Keon who have been top end boundary WR's, so what he can or can't be on the boundary is still yet to be known IMHO. What they need from Keon is to be the best version of himself, they will fill in guys around him who have different strengths than Keon as they are building this team more around skills sets and roles. And to your point of being fine with this type if season...If Keon can grow into a role where he can consistently be a 900-1100 yard WR in this style of offense, he will be a pretty good player for us over that span. And that is all we need him to be, he doesn't have to blossom into say a top 10 WR in the NFL even, just needs to do what he does at a high level and he is going to help this team win games.

I have been saying it all offseason, I really think Coleman is going to silence some critics this year. Everything coming out has been very positive, including things like Allen publicly talking about how Keon has been in hitting him up all offseason on getting better, understanding more what Allen wants/expects in different situations, etc. I think we will see an improvement on the guy we saw prior to the injury. And what people forget is that 1000 yards was on the table before he was hurt in week 11. At that point he was on pace for 800-900 yards, but that pace was increasing as he started getting more comfortable and involved as the season progressed. Barring injury, I think a realistic goal for him this season is 900-1100 yards and 8-10 TD's. And that would be a pretty strong season in his 2nd year in this offense that spreads the ball around.

Now this makes more sense than what you stated in the previous post. The one caveat though I will add is that Beane, the coaches, and players are not entering the season expecting the offense to be less than what it was and very much are expecting an offense that still is among the highest scoring in the league, if not better than last year. I don't think anyone expects the defense to lead this team that has the reigning MVP and just averaged 31 in the reg season and 29 in the post season. But, there is for sure an expectation that the defense should (and needs to) be better, and most specifically improving the atrocious 3rd down performances (we near the bottom of the NFL) and first downs allowed (again near bottom of the NFL). The defense was clearly more deficient than the offense last year, whether or not the moves we did make prove to be enough is yet to be seen, but it was a necessary area of the team to address. Its a lot harder to ask a team scoring 31 PPG to go out and score even more to mask a defense that can't get off the field...than it is to improve the defense to just find a way to get off the field one more time per game and stop putting the pressure on the offense to be perfect to over come its deficiencies. I am pretty excited to be both units as I believe both units can, and will, be better this year. I look at this way on the offense: Year 2 Coleman should be better than Year 1 Coleman Healthy Kincaid > Battling knee issues Kincaid Healthy Samuel > Lingering foot issue Samuel Palmer/Moore bring more to the offense as pass catchers as Mack/Ghost of Cooper did last year And of course the D IMHO greatly improved at areas of need, especially at CB and DL...2 areas KC dog walked us at in the AFCCG last year. I like what we did up front and I think its more than reasonable to think this unit can get off the field better this year on 3rd down than it was at doing so last year.

I agree, but that isn't what we have gotten 100 threads on all offseason, its been specifically on the WR room, specifically blaming WR's for the 2023 and 2024 endings when it was not at all related to the WR's those final 2 series. One thing for sure, I agree, I am over it too, the conversation in general has been beaten to death. But...the bolded here..no disrespect, but this is just a silly statement that is a reflection of your personal disappointment and in no way what so ever an accurate reflection of how Beane, the team, the coaches think and feel about the offense. We just averaged over 30 in the reg season and 29 in the post season and they feel the offense has the potential to be as good or better between the moves they made and the expectations they have of Kincaid and Coleman to better too this year between being healthy and more experienced. Whether they are right or not will be proven on the field of course, but to suggest they "want" a lower scoring middling offense like KC is just a wild thing to say and just isn't at all true.

No disrespect, but now you are blurring the lines here...you are now moving the goal posts from "WR's" to "Pass Catches" because the 4th down play was to a TE when the WR's were wide open. And sorry, I do not at all think Cooper makes it 10 yards for the first down without the subtle slip, there were defenders all around him. And more importantly, the slip is a slip...its not skill related, that could have happened to any WR in the game. Saying if we had a better WR there, then the slip doesn't happen, and we for sure get a first is just not a logical conclusion. Also - why are we throwing the screen to Cooper instead of Shakir, Ty, or Samuel who are much better and effective on a screen than the Ghost of Cooper anyway? I am not one that was upset Cook was off the field in passing situations, Ty is a better receiver and pass blocker, so I agree with you. Now, if one wants to make a case we didn't need to keep throwing and should have tried to mix a run in with Cook, well that is a fair discussion. But when passing, I get why they went with Ty over Cook. Not if you watch the replay from the top down angle, he had plenty of room to make the play, and quite frankly Shakir is excellent at RAC with ball in his hands and has broken big runs off in tighter situations. If Allen gets him the ball in stride its an easy first and likely a big gain. And Allen also had another WR in Coleman or Samuel running wide open over the middle to the left for also a first down as they were already past the marker. Cooper was even somewhat open. The point is simple...the WR personnel is not at all why that play didn't work...yet I have seen people repeatedly blame the "WR's" specifically. Exactly...I agree...yet all offseason this board has been beating a dead horse associating the full blame on this final series specifically to the WR room, which is not at all accurate on this series. What I and others are pushing back is the incorrect specific blame on the WR personnel on this final series we have had thrown around since the game ended. We had breakdowns elsewhere is the point, it wasn't who the WR's names were on the field, they were open on multiple plays and we just didn't get them the ball.

I see upside in him, but I am not sure how much opportunity he really gets here right now...suddenly its pretty crowded on the DL, and thats a good thing. Groot, AJE, Bosa, Landon are all going to likely play ahead of him in the rotation. He will get some snaps, and I think he has potential to bring in those snaps, but he is probably pretty deep in the rotation to really get too many opportunities here. His best chance will be if injuries open up more reps IMHO. I do look forward to see how he looks this year though as I do think he has potential, especially after this year if Bosa doesn't prove worth bringing back or if they wanted to say move AJE to save cap space and open up more reps for our younger guys next year.

Honestly, I agree with this, its clear as day we needed to improve on the outside, I am not in disagreement on that. My push back in general to the conversation around "blame" in 2023 and 2024 in terms of the ends of those games, blaming the WR's is lazy and inaccurate IMHO in those specific instances because both in 2023 and 2024 we had WR's get wide open and we failed in execution and did not even get them the ball. Making a case that more help on the outside at WR maybe leads to more points throughout a game is a fair and reasonable discussion. But too many times on this board, WR's are specifically and incorrectly getting blamed for failures on exact plays/series where it was not the WR's on the field, it was breakdowns elsewhere that led to the failures of those plays in both 2023 and 2024.

Yeah that very well could have been part of the issues, or could have also been GB wasn't being reasonable then in what they wanted based on them maybe still believing they could get the contract renegotiated. But now, with FA and Draft over, teams like the Bills also already added guys in both FA and the draft, so the trade interest just isn't there and left GB without willing trade partners. Personally, I doubt Bills will have interest at this stage after the moves we have already made to bring guys in they are familiar with in Dane and Tre, paying Benford, and then drafting Hairston. Jaire also seems to want a certain amount of money, so given we brought in vets like Dane and Tre who know the system, paid Benford, and drafted Hairston, seems pretty unlikely this is his next stop. But you never know either

Disagree, this idea that without the slip on 3rd and 10 its a sure first down is honestly exaggerated. Yet you also seem to just gloss over the first 2 plays, including 2nd down where Allen has his pass knocked down to a wide open Samuel otherwise we would have already made the first down. On the 4th down, Shakir was wide open for a first and more off the snap and another WR was running open across the middle to the left too. And where I said the play outcome doesn't change was the 4th down play where we had wide open WR's for an easy first that we could not even attempt to get the ball to because Allen was under duress falling back to his right and forced to throw a prayer ball to a TE instead of the open WR's for an easy first. Who the WR's were were not why we didn't convert a first down on that final series.

Good post and agree with most of this

But the problem is...Josh had multiple WR's wide open that last series, including the 4th down play...and also Kincaid at TE. The route Allen threw too though was the TE, so who the other WR's were on the field on that play are totally irrelevant because the pass still went to the TE even though there were WR's wide open we did have were open, including off the snap. Those WR's could have been Jerry Rice and Randy Moss, it makes no difference to the play because Allen didn't have the ability to throw to any of the WR's we had, who again were open. Because we cheated the protection to the wrong direction, Allen had to bail to his right immediately off the snap and heave a prayer ball to the only guy he could which was a TE running wide open down field. Unfortunately, Kincaid didn't make the play...but unless you are advocating to draft a better TE, then who the WR's were on this play do not change the outcome of this play. No one is arguing against having a better WR for Allen...but, this false narrative that our WR's are why the Shakir TD attempt failed in 2023 or why we didn't convert a first on our final series in 2024 isn't accurate to those respective plays. If someone wants to make a case an upgrade in the WR room helps Josh score more points in a game we lost by 3, then fair case to present. But the WR's are not the reason we didn't convert these plays, they were wide open in each instance and things that happened on the OL or with Allen (including getting his pass batted at LOS) are why we didn't convert. We failed to get the ball to the wide open guys on the field to even give the WR's to make the play. WRs can’t catch balls not thrown to them, dont reach them, or that get deflected at the LOS. Come on...lol...we gave them the ball back while we were still losing the game with them needing 1 first down to end it

And it’s unfortunately why the play failed and our season ultimately ended on that drive.

No disrespect my friend, but if you truly believe this then that in itself would be a complete and total failure by Allen on that fact alone. For the record, I don't think Allen thought that at all, but if he did then that is without question a critical failure by him. You are stating that Allen has no responsibility to check the pressure coming from what is probably the best and most clutch game wrecker in the league...And on a play where Allen knows: That is Chris Jones on the other side - again one of the best game wreckers of Allens era (and maybe the most clutch in big moments) Its one on one as he isn't being doubled We are taking a deep shot and by default Allen has to hold the ball a little longer We either score on this drive or KC ends our season again Sorry...what you just wrote here just doesn't make sense IMHO, nor is it something I suspect a coach would agree with, nor do I think Allen would. And as much as I love Dion, he isn't better than Chris Jones and isn't so good you can just completely ignore Chris Jones in a game on the line moment as a QB. And quite honestly, our lack of handling the defensive pressure is what ended our last 2 seasons.

No disrespect - but - He isn't trolling, you are just not correct in absolving Allen from any responsibility. You have made several incorrect statements in all your posts now. You incorrectly attributed blame to Shakir not getting to his spot fast enough making Allen hold the ball longer, which the film shows is 100% wrong. Shakir is a 4.45 WR with a free release in a 20 yard straight line sprint before he even encounters a defender and where the ball was already in the air before any defender even was near his route. He has literally ZERO impact on this play not succeeding. Futhermore, Shakir makes Reid bite on a move and ends up wide open for the would be TD exactly where the ball was headed had Allen not been hit. You have incorrectly described the rush from the D to be different than it was You seem to refuse to acknowledge the massive amount of time and space Allen had in the pocket outside the one exact spot he stood like a statue in. You dont want to seem to acknowledge that Allen bounced in place multiple times, even pump faked, before making the throw which on any one of those he could have bounced even a half step back or to the right and made the same throw, except this time clean, to Shakir. And you have refused to even accept that any OTHER result would have been acceptable such as sliding to the right and throwing to Diggs instead for an easy first down or even running to the right and either getting the first or making the 3rd down attempt shorter/easier. This obsession people have to accuse people of "trolling" just because they don't agree is over the top around here. Don't get me wrong, plenty of people do troll, but just because he doesn't agree with you on this play doesn't make him a troll. Dion lost a rep to one of the best pass rushers and clutch defenders of his era in Jones was the primary cause of the play. BUT - Allen didn't see/recognize that Dion was getting dominated and stood in place like a statue despite the time to make even a subtle adjustment to get a clean pass off to Shakir or simply make a different play if it wasn't there. He also shares some responsibility in the result of that play. Is attempting to hit a wide open Shakir for a TD a mistake? No. But it also doesn't mean its the ONLY choice either, and a case can be made it still leaves too much time on the clock for KC who always dog walks us with the game on the line. But IT IS absolutely a mistake if you can't actually complete the play due to pressure. So if he wasn't going to be able to avoid the pressure, then the correct decision then becomes move right and either hit Diggs for the sure first down or keep running if the lanes are there for either the first or a shorter 3rd down attempt. But like I said, the space and time were there for Allen to make a subtle adjustment to get that pass off clean, he just failed to recognize he needed to and the tape confirms that.

First off no one’s saying the throw to Shakir was wrong. Second, you chimed in on a post I made correcting someone else (and eventually you too) that Shakir had some fault he made in the play, which he very clearly did not. Ball was in the air before Shakir was ever even near a defender. Allen getting his foot stepped on is the reason it didn’t work. And that’s because Dion lost a rep to one of the best DE’s in football. BUT - Allen had space and room to do something about it too and didn’t. It’s right there on tape. So he has some responsibility in the result too even though the bulk of the impact came from Dion losing a rep to another elite player.

I didn’t move any goal posts and this is still inaccurate.

You clearly did not watch the clip I just posted. If you don't think Allen has opportunity to get a clean pass off he sees/feels how deep the pressure is from Dion then I don't know what to tell you. Allen had a ton of space to make a cleaner throw or buy time to find a different throw rather than stand there immobile and get stepped on. It's on both Dion and Allen. And once again, Shakir is running free in full sprint PRIOR to Allens throw. Nothing about what Shakir did prior to Allen making the pass slowed Allens throw down. If you simply watch the clips you can see this clear as day. Dion lost his rep...Allen stood still in the pocket...and the result was getting stepped on and short arming a game winning TD pass to a wide open WR in the endzone.

Again, no disrepsect, but that is still not accurate, you said Shakir got held up and it made Allen hold the ball a second too long. But Allen throws the pass before Shakir even encounter Reid or makes his cut. So again, no disrespect, but what you said is just not what happened. And the result was Shakir was right where the ball was headed and open in the endzone for the TD catch had it not been short armed because Dion lost his rep against Jones and Allen failed to see/feel the pressure to slide and make a clean slow. Shakir made a move on Reid, won his rep and cut on Reid, and was wide open for the go ahead and possible game winning TD. The entire failure of the play was on Dion and Allen, Shakir did his job on this play and that is a route you will take from your WR's 10 out 10 times.

No disrespect, but for this play, this is not remotely accurate, Shakir had not even encountered a defender before Allen made the throw. Shakir had a free release from 26 yard line and didn't encounter a defender until the 6 yard line when the ball was already in the air. Nothing at any point slowed Shakir or his route down prior to Allen putting the ball in the air..and had Allen not been stepped on the balls path was on the exact trajectory to hit Shakir exactly where he was open in the end zone. Nothing Shakir did or didn't do impacted how long Allen had to hold the ball. This play failed Jones won the rep vs Dion combined with Allen not recognizing it and sliding or stepping up to avoid and get a clean throw off. Shakir did his job. Play starts at 7:45 and then you can see the angle from behind Allen at 8:04.