Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?

[BillsFanForever19]

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

you posted HIS own video. You're trying to use his own content to prove he's a fraud and that his science is invalid? How?

I watched that video already. 

 

Uh... yeah. Was I supposed to post someone else's video when referencing that he posts strawman videos for clickbait? 

 

We'll have to agree to disagree on this. If you believe we have a very successful passing offense and watched the video of him calling Mahomes and the QB position as a whole overrated and think "this guy's cooking" - there's really nothing to talk about anymore.

[BullBuchanan]

8 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Uh... yeah. Was I supposed to post someone else's video when referencing that he posts strawman videos for clickbait? 

 

We'll have to agree to disagree on this. If you believe we have a very successful passing offense and watched the video of him calling Mahomes and the QB position as a whole overrated and think "this guy's cooking" - there's really nothing to talk about anymore.

What part do think is the strawman?

The premise is questioning how NFL teams evaluate the quarterback position, why QB performance fluctuates, and if it's better to build an elite team with a less elite QB vs having an elite QB with a less elite team.

There's no gotcha here. It just comes off like you want to be mad about something and you're taking it out on this guy.

Edited 14 hours ago by BullBuchanan

[Donuts and Doritos]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

Passing yards per game isn't a stat that tells you anything meaningful. 

You could be 1st in passing yards per game with the lowest yards per attempt in the league. That doesn't mean you're good at throwing the football. It means you throw the football a lot in spite of how bad you are at it.

In the Bills case, they're the 5th best team  in the league at throwing the football. They just happen to not throw it that much. 

 

Passing yards per game tells you how many yards you're getting from your passing offense. Who cares if it's in the air or after the catch? It's what your passing offense QB & WR are getting per game. We are also 12th in completion % so we are again near average. That means besides attempting fewer passes we aren't completing at an Elite rate. We're 19th in passing TDs. That's below average. By every metric our passing offense is not Elite. That's half the offense. 

 

Outside the stats, the eye test shows there are issues with our passing game and receivers winning on the outside. 

 

We're the #6 scoring offense. Colts are #1 and have more rushing and passing TDs. Bills are #3 in third down conversions. We're tied with 3 other teams for the 4th fewest punts. That's good but it's not #1. Our run offense is great, but it's not #1. 

 

As far as I can see we are not #1 in the league in any measurable offensive metric. The Colts are #1 in most categories, passing, rushing, yards & scoring. What is the Bills offense #1 in?

 

"Elite" means you're the best. Not good, not great (which the Bills are). Elite. Statistically they are very good but not Elite. (If they're Elite what do we call the Colts, Unbelievable?) It's a long season & hopefully they figure some things out and get even better. But as of right now they simply are not "Elite".

 

2025 NFL offense passing stats by Team | NFL.com https://share.google/z5PUSQ4uLG63ZGxfC

 

2025 NFL offense scoring stats by Team | NFL.com https://share.google/owozcgGNjeEMY9V5f

 

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Third Down Conversion Percentage | TeamRankings.com https://share.google/POrzAKETxthRdw3Wp

 

2025 NFL special-teams punts stats by Team | NFL.com https://share.google/LuaSiST5paWLMiCNn

 

 

Edited 14 hours ago by Donuts and Doritos

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Say what you will about McDermott but the guy knows how to get touchdowns on the board. Granted Most of them are from his defense getting blown straight backwards for 3 hours while RBs go untouched and Receivers go uncovered across the field…but Josh Allen is a generational talent. McDermott is covered either way out here.

[BillsFanForever19]

14 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

What part do think is the strawman?

The premise is questioning how NFL teams evaluate the quarterback position, why QB performance fluctuates, and if it's better to build an elite team with a less elite QB vs having an elite QB with a less elite team.

There's no gotcha here. It just comes off like you want to be mad about something and you're taking it out on this guy.

 

The description of his channel straight out says it:

 

"Here to examine and challenge pieces of sports and life... fun stories and a lot of bad data"

 

Videos like the QB position is the most overrated in sports. The most important person to a football team is not the coach or QB, but the GM. And now a video that has you thinking we're a very good passing offense and ready to go to war as the contrarian.

 

Moving on from all of this, I hope you're right. But the results in the field when we needed something besides the running game says otherwise. 

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

 

Passing yards per game tells you how many yards you're getting from your passing offense. Who cares if it's in the air or after the catch? It's what your passing offense QB & WR are getting per game. We are also 12th in completion % so we are again near average. That means besides attempting fewer passes we aren't completing at an Elite rate. We're 19th in passing TDs. That's below average. By every metric our passing offense is not Elite. That's half the offense. 

 

Outside the stats, the eye test shows there are issues with our passing game and receivers winning on the outside. 

 

We're the #6 scoring offense. Colts are #1 and have more rushing and passing TDs. Bills are #3 in third down conversions. We're tied with 3 other teams for the 4th fewest punts. That's good but it's not #1. Our run offense is great, but it's not #1. 

 

As far as I can see we are not #1 in the league in any measurable offensive metric. The Colts are #1 in most categories, passing, rushing, yards & scoring. What is the Bills offense #1 in?

 

"Elite" means you're the best. Not good, not great (which the Bills are). Elite. Statistically they are very good but not Elite. (If they're Elite what do we call the Colts, Unbelievable?) It's a long season & hopefully they figure some things out and get even better. But as of right now they simply are not "Elite".

 

2025 NFL offense passing stats by Team | NFL.com https://share.google/z5PUSQ4uLG63ZGxfC

 

2025 NFL offense scoring stats by Team | NFL.com https://share.google/owozcgGNjeEMY9V5f

 

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Third Down Conversion Percentage | TeamRankings.com https://share.google/POrzAKETxthRdw3Wp

 

2025 NFL special-teams punts stats by Team | NFL.com https://share.google/LuaSiST5paWLMiCNn

 

 

None of that was what I was talking about, unfortunately.

I think your insistence on looking at aggregate metrics vs production per play is a trap that doesn't have any merit. Sorry.

56 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

The description of his channel straight out says it:

 

"Here to examine and challenge pieces of sports and life... fun stories and a lot of bad data"

 

Videos like the QB position is the most overrated in sports. The most important person to a football team is not the coach or QB, but the GM. And now a video that has you thinking we're a very good passing offense and ready to go to war as the contrarian.

 

Moving on from all of this, I hope you're right. But the results in the field when we needed something besides the running game says otherwise. 

Does that video exist? The video you shared doesn't make that claim.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Actually the one time we did try to out-offense the Chiefs we had the game won in 2021

 

Last couple times we've played them in postseason we've tried ball control and they just grind us down

This is the 2025 Bills. Think about what’s changed in 4 years, it’s almost a different team especially the offensive line who is no longer a finesse unit.
 

You can argue that we also have the best back in the league. I mean he averages the most yards per carry.
 

Buffalo is primed to go deep in the playoffs because of their physicality. They lacked that before. IMO

[Buffalo ill]

5 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Buffalo is primed to go deep in the playoffs because of their physicality. They lacked that before. IMO

The defense is the polar opposite of physical.  It could not possibly be any more opposite of physical 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Just now, Buffalo ill said:

The defense is the polar opposite of physical.  It could not possibly be any more opposite of physical 

They played a phenomenal game against the Panthers. A team with a winning record and VERY good RB despite Andy Dalton. That’s a start. Where is the optimism? 

[GoBills808]

ok so after watching it a third time i still don't think it supports the idea that you should run the ball at a higher frequency than passing

 

what i think he calculated is at what frequency your defense is indifferent, in terms of expected yards, to whether the opposing offense throws or runs

 

 

[Psautcsk]

What about special teams? Are we elite or not?

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, Psautcsk said:

What about special teams? Are we elite or not?

In terms of kicking we're very good. 7th overall in percentage.

[Mikie2times]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

The description of his channel straight out says it:

 

"Here to examine and challenge pieces of sports and life... fun stories and a lot of bad data"

 

Videos like the QB position is the most overrated in sports. The most important person to a football team is not the coach or QB, but the GM. And now a video that has you thinking we're a very good passing offense and ready to go to war as the contrarian.

 

Moving on from all of this, I hope you're right. But the results in the field when we needed something besides the running game says otherwise. 

It's clear the guys schtick is to be abrasive and contrarian. I'm sure he's tripping over breasts on the way to the restroom. 

[3rdand12]

On 10/30/2025 at 6:19 PM, WotAGuy said:

Can we cut with the facts and data and get back to pitchforks now?

Thank you.

 that stuff just irks me no end.

Pitchforks and similar implements of destruction have my vote !

On 10/30/2025 at 6:35 PM, BVBILLS said:

Pats used to use the 2 TE a lot

Ravens used 3 TEs a few years ago to some success

I do believe it is our strength. And I sincerely approve of the method. Winning the middle of the field 

Feels like one little thing is missing ? Something fast with great hands maybe ?

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

They played a phenomenal game against the Panthers. A team with a winning record and VERY good RB despite Andy Dalton. That’s a start. Where is the optimism? 

Two very good running backs actually

Better to be on the tracks to optimism in my humbled opinion

[Donuts and Doritos]

10 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

None of that was what I was talking about, unfortunately.

I think your insistence on looking at aggregate metrics vs production per play is a trap that doesn't have any merit. Sorry.

 

Production per play would be measured by yards per play. We are 2nd and not by much, the next 5 teams are within 0.2 yards of us. The Colts are #1 by almost half a yard (0.4). Production per play shows the Colts as Elite & Bills with the rest of the pack. 

 

I agree there are things to like about this offense, the run game, o-line, TEs. They have some pieces at WR. They need an outside WR who can win one on one against man coverage and scare defenses. That would unlock their ability to become Elite. Again, that's just my opinion. But we'll see what happens. Go Bills!

 

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Yards per Play | TeamRankings.com https://share.google/uWmOgFfdOMFKcOOFz

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

11 hours ago, Buffalo ill said:

The defense is the polar opposite of physical.  It could not possibly be any more opposite of physical 

To paraphrase Douglas Adams, the defense is going to pieces (via injury) so fast, that other players are getting hit by the shrapnel.  At least berserker Rapp won't be giving any more 'friendly fire' injuries.

[TheWei44]

12 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

This is the 2025 Bills. Think about what’s changed in 4 years, it’s almost a different team especially the offensive line who is no longer a finesse unit.
 

You can argue that we also have the best back in the league. I mean he averages the most yards per carry.
 

Buffalo is primed to go deep in the playoffs because of their physicality. They lacked that before. IMO

I generally agree with this. And people should not evaluate the passing game in a vacuum. It hasn’t looked great at times and our receivers aren’t topnotch but (1) Josh only played 3/4 of Panthers game so passing numbers will be lower (2) Cook has been on fire and obviously you pass less when running is so effective (3) I saw that Josh’s completion percentage through first 7 games is much higher than last year - that’s encouraging to me and (4) in Ravens game when we needed to pass, we were effective. I’m just not as down on the team nor the passing game given the above (and injuries)

 

An off topic aside: People seem to be focusing so much on Ray Davis to spell Cook and also Gore. I’m not sure why people aren’t talking about Ty Johnson. He’s looked good running the ball at times. And last year he seemed to be really good on the broken plays catching the ball.

Edited 1 hour ago by TheWei44

[Fan in Chicago]

47 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

I generally agree with this. And people should not evaluate the passing game in a vacuum. It hasn’t looked great at times and our receivers aren’t topnotch but (1) Josh only played 3/4 of Panthers game so passing numbers will be lower (2) Cook has been on fire and obviously you pass less when running is so effective (3) I saw that Josh’s completion percentage through first 7 games is much higher than last year - that’s encouraging to me and (4) in Ravens game when we needed to pass, we were effective. I’m just not as down on the team nor the passing game given the above (and injuries)

What about the falcons and Patriots games when we couldn't turn on our elite offense and score when needed?  Those are the games that really soured me on the O's capabilities and I firmly started believing that the O is very good at some things it does,  but severely limited in other aspects.  

I am glad those games came towards the early part of the season and dampened the undeserved narrative that we are a SB contending team.  

 

It is really quite depressing to see us have the MVP at QB and want to force-fit a run first offense with little credibility to the passing game