Game week thread - Chiefs at Bills

[Warriorspikes51]

2 hours ago, Dillenger4 said:

If we can run the ball like last week against the Chiefs we are gonna be tough to deal with moving forward!

Our D is coming together with the shot-in-the-arm we got last week. Can't wait to see Max cover Worthy! Hoecht and Bosa and Groot bashing in on Kermit!

 

Mahomes won't be touched in the game.  He rarely is when we play them.   & holding is NEVER called against our opponents 

[beebe]

Some notes on officiating/Cheffers....

 

Carl Cheffers' crew has a league-high 20.7 flags thrown per game, and a league-high 17.3 accepted penalties per game (nfl average is 14).

 

Cheffers already officiated a Chiefs game earlier this year in Brazil when they played the Chargers. 

 

KC had 10 penalties for 71 yards; LAC had 6 penalties for 49 yards.

 

Chiefs fans believe he missed a holding call on this critical TD late (below), which adds to their belief that Cheffers hates the Chiefs due to his involvement in other past controversial games.

 

 

 

I don't buy into the ref bias BS. They have no incentive to get calls wrong that could hurt their standing for playoff or Super Bowl assignments. I do however believe that a couple of crews have proven to be more (or less) flag happy than others. Bill Vinovich is one that makes the list. His crew has thrown the fewest flags over the sample and has had the least or second least amount of penalties seven straight years from 2016-2022, and typically is never at the top.

 

Cheffers' crew certainly makes the list, but falls into the flag happy category. In data that goes back to 2009, Cheffers' crew has ranked (out of 17 crews) top 5 in flags thrown nine times, and has led the league four times.

 

That being said, his crew threw the fewest flags in 2024, and the second fewest in 2023, one of only five times he's finished in the bottom half of flags thrown. It goes to show you that single-year samples can still be pretty noisy, as most ref crews have no defined pattern. Most years, there's a 3-4 flag per game difference between the most flag happy crew, and the least flag happy crew, and some years it's in the 2s. 

 

Cheffers penalty rank by year:

 

2025 - 1st (most flags thrown)

2024 - 17th (fewest flags thrown)

2023 - 16th 

2022 - 1st

2021 - 1st

2020 - 3rd 

2019 - 11th

2018 - 5th 

2017 - 2nd

2016 - 11th

2015 - 2nd

2014 - 1st

2013 - 7th

2012 - 6th

2011 - 7th

2010 - 5th 

2009 - 12th

 

Chiefs vs Bills penalties (2025): 

 

This year, the Chiefs are 4th worst in the NFL in net penalties at -12 and are 6th worst in net penalty yards; the Bills are 5th worst (-11) in net penalties, and 7th worst in net penalty yards. 

 

In terms of subjective defensive penalties, the Chiefs rank 23rd (+16.5 EPA), while the Bills are the third-biggest beneficiary (+37 EPA) behind NYG and Dallas. The ranks are the same when measuring WPA - KC 23rd, Buffalo 3rd.

 

Buffalo also has the edge over KC in QB penalties drawn, 11-9, despite KC playing one more game than the Bills so far. 

 

Prior years:

 

2024: Chiefs (5th best, +19 net penalties); Bills (6th best, +14 net penalties)

2023: Chiefs (7th worst, -12 net penalties); Bills (13th worst, -6 net penalties)

2022: Chiefs (3rd best, +21 net penalties); Bills (12th worst, -4 net penalties)

2021: Chiefs (11th best, +10 net penalties); Bills 13th worst, -11 net penalties)

2020: Chiefs (4th worst, -18 net penalties); Bills (5th worst, -11 net penalties)

2019: Chiefs (9th best, +12 net penalties); Bills (4th worst, -26 net penalties)

2018: Chiefs (2nd worst, -24 net penalties); Bills (4th worst, -17 net penalties)

2017: Chiefs (11th worst, -11 net penalties); Bills (17th worst, -1 net penalties)

2016: Chiefs (15th best, -2 net penalties); Bills (13th worst, -6 net penalties)

2015: Chiefs (13th best, +6 net penalties); Bills (3rd worst, -30 net penalties)

2014: Chiefs (6th best, +19 net penalties); Bills (4th worst, -20 net penalties)

2013: Chiefs (11th best, +13 net penalties); Bills (16th best, -2 net penalties)

 

Chiefs in Andy/Mahomes era (2018-2025): -4 net penalties

Chiefs Andy/Alex Smith era (2013-2017): +25 net penalties

 

Bills in McDermott era (2017-2025): -72 net penalties

Bills in Marrone/Ryan eras (2013-2016): -58 net penalties

 

QBs/Roughing the Passer (2018-2025):

 

Allen 0.932 per 100 attempts (5th highest of 74 QBs)

Mahomes 0.633 per 100 attempts (29th) 

Edited 2 hours ago by beebe

[RiotAct]

^^^^
 

Nice analysis.  However, penalties called is only one piece of the story.  Penalties that AREN’T called (especially during crucial plays), bad spots, and when the penalties are called are factors as well. 

[ShakAttack]

27 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Mahomes won't be touched in the game.  He rarely is when we play them.   & holding is NEVER called against our opponents 

Actually we do usually generate pressure on Mahomes in the regular season meetings. In fact, I would point to that being THE main difference as far as "why can we beat them in the regular season and not the playoffs".

 

We have sacked him, pressured him into ints, bad throws, etc............... but only in the regular season.

[zow2]

It just feels like in his coaching tenure here, that McDermott coached teams have never cleaned up the penalty issues.  and it's not just judgmental offensive holdings...it's a lot of presnap fundamental stuff like defensive Offside, Oline moving early, illegal procedure, etc,,,  The DB's are always grabby grabby,,, and they keep opponents on the field on 3rd downs.

[Big Turk]

Uh oh...Operation Chief Killer has begun...Gabe Davis activated from Practice Squad IR...are we going to get another patented Jim Nantz call this week????

 

"It's GABE!!!! DAAAAAAA-VVVIIIIISSSSS! There he goes again...TD Bills!"

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Big Turk

[boyst]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Uh oh...Operation Chief Killer has begun...Gabe Davis activated from Practice Squad IR...are we going to get another patented Jim Nantz call this week????

 

"It's GABE!!!! DAAAAAAA-VVVIIIIISSSSS! There he goes again...TD Bills!"

 

Official? Link?

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, boyst said:

Official? Link?

 

 

 

[boyst]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

 

Thank you, that's good news. And since he only can run thredifference he will make a difference 😂

 

I do wonder what speed he's able to run at

[beebe]

Just now, RiotAct said:

^^^^
 

Nice analysis.  However, penalties called is only one piece of the story.  Penalties that AREN’T called (especially during crucial plays), bad spots, and when the penalties are called are factors as well. 

 

Let me know when you stumble into data for "penalties that aren't called" and will be happy to include it in the analysis. One thing I've learned through the years, the fans watching at home are far more biased than the refs could ever be; and if given an exam on the NFL rules/officiating handbook, I'd guess 95% of fans would fail the test as most have zero clue about officiating mechanics, what to look for, what constitutes a penalty, etc.

 

There are bad calls made in every sport, on every level. Umpires calling ball/strikes, with the best view in the house, while literally standing stationary, with the ball directly in front of them, miss 1 call per inning. 

 

If you seriously think the NFL would cheat for the Chiefs, you’re basically saying the league would risk: wire fraud, honest-services fraud, the sports bribery act, breach-of-contract suits from 31 other owners, class-action fraud claims from fans and bettors, and federal investigations from the FTC or DOJ, all to help one team win? And that the other 31 billion-dollar owners would just sit quietly and let it happen? Wouldn't the NFL, at least on occasion, want to rig something for the Cowboys, Jets, or Giants? At the very least, why not cheat just enough to help the Giants or Jets get above .500 and in the playoff mix for the first time in a decade? Perhaps some love for the Vegas-based Raiders? How about rewarding the Chargers for moving to LA and helping finance SoFi? 

[bills742]

 

 

[Dunkirk Donski]

If all goes well I suspect mud cleats will sit this sunday

[bills742]

 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

3 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I’m not the one even bringing up the pats. In saying this game is huge. Another guy brought up the Pats. I think we will catch the pats. But I’m saying if we can beat KC we can bury them 

I’ll take my chances with the colts. My guess is if they are the 1, they’ll already be gone by the time we get to the championship game 

[Success]

38 minutes ago, bills742 said:

 

 

 

I'll take that.  I wasn't expecting Palmer or Jones this week, and having both Milano & Bernard going full is pretty big.

 

[ColoradoBills]

42 minutes ago, zow2 said:

It just feels like in his coaching tenure here, that McDermott coached teams have never cleaned up the penalty issues.  and it's not just judgmental offensive holdings...it's a lot of presnap fundamental stuff like defensive Offside, Oline moving early, illegal procedure, etc,,,  The DB's are always grabby grabby,,, and they keep opponents on the field on 3rd downs.

 

While the Head Coach is ultimately responsible for team penalties, the coordinators, position coaches and the players themselves all

have to take a bite of that crap sandwich.  

 

The Bills have this "family" culture which has a lot of benefits, BUT I do believe at times it may discourage players for getting on each other 

over things like penalties that hurt the goals of the team.

 

In 2025, the Bills have 7.29 penalties per game which is 13th highest int he league.

Kansas City is 14th with 7.0 penalties per game.

 

https://www.nflpenalties.com/index.php?year=2025&view=games

 

32 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

Let me know when you stumble into data for "penalties that aren't called" and will be happy to include it in the analysis. One thing I've learned through the years, the fans watching at home are far more biased than the refs could ever be; and if given an exam on the NFL rules/officiating handbook, I'd guess 95% of fans would fail the test as most have zero clue about officiating mechanics, what to look for, what constitutes a penalty, etc.

 

There are bad calls made in every sport, on every level. Umpires calling ball/strikes, with the best view in the house, while literally standing stationary, with the ball directly in front of them, miss 1 call per inning. 

 

If you seriously think the NFL would cheat for the Chiefs, you’re basically saying the league would risk: wire fraud, honest-services fraud, the sports bribery act, breach-of-contract suits from 31 other owners, class-action fraud claims from fans and bettors, and federal investigations from the FTC or DOJ, all to help one team win? And that the other 31 billion-dollar owners would just sit quietly and let it happen? Wouldn't the NFL, at least on occasion, want to rig something for the Cowboys, Jets, or Giants? At the very least, why not cheat just enough to help the Giants or Jets get above .500 and in the playoff mix for the first time in a decade? Perhaps some love for the Vegas-based Raiders? How about rewarding the Chargers for moving to LA and helping finance SoFi? 

 

Everyone, and I mean everyone, hates the NFL refs.

I do too.

 

The thing is, we fans have a perfect "birds' eye" view of the field, but I bet (and know) it sure looks different when you are a ref "on the field".

We instantly get slow motion replays and then wonder how they can get it so wrong.

 

The answer IMO is having more officials watching the game like we do and communicating to the officials on the field.

 

[zow2]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

While the Head Coach is ultimately responsible for team penalties, the coordinators, position coaches and the players themselves all

have to take a bite of that crap sandwich.  

 

The Bills have this "family" culture which has a lot of benefits, BUT I do believe at times it may discourage players for getting on each other 

over things like penalties that hurt the goals of the team.

 

 

That reminds me of the Peyton Manning clip that makes the rounds on social media once in a while.   He tells the story of a game they just needed a half yard or something to get a first down, then they can kneel out the clock and get the Win.  But one of the players on the line moved early.  So it turned into 3rd and 6.  So in the huddle Peyton told the player who committed the infraction to leave... to get off the field.  The player thought he was joking.  Peyton said no, get the hell off the field. He was pissed.  They ended up not getting the first down, had to punt, but the D closed out the game anyway.

 

[BillytheKid]

1 hour ago, bills742 said:

 

 

Not sure I like that Milano and Bernard are back. With the way the linebackers that have been in there the last 6 quarters have played only giving up 12 points they did a lot better than when those 2 were in there. 
 

Of course I don’t know for sure if it was more on the safeties being bad or if Bernard and Milano were equally as bad. 
 

 

[ColoradoBills]

15 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

That reminds me of the Peyton Manning clip that makes the rounds on social media once in a while.   He tells the story of a game they just needed a half yard or something to get a first down, then they can kneel out the clock and get the Win.  But one of the players on the line moved early.  So it turned into 3rd and 6.  So in the huddle Peyton told the player who committed the infraction to leave... to get off the field.  The player thought he was joking.  Peyton said no, get the hell off the field. He was pissed.  They ended up not getting the first down, had to punt, but the D closed out the game anyway.

 

 

I never heard that story.  Thanks for sharing.

 

Just to add another team penalty stat.  The Bills are the 5th best in the league in avoiding pre-snap penalties with 1.86 per game.

The best is Seattle with 1.29 and the worse are the Giants with 3.75.

FWIW.

https://www.nflpenalties.com/index.php?year=2025&view=games

Edited 45 minutes ago by ColoradoBills

[TheFunPolice]

Sal C on WGR this morning was basically hinting at the idea that McDermott wants more in the passing game and Joe Brady seems to think it is ok. 

 

I sort of believe that. I've always thought McDermott wants Josh to be Josh, just only when needed so he is healthy for the playoffs.