Bills are Super Bowl Favorites

[BuffaloBillyG]

Just out of curiosity, I wonder how many times the "Super Bowl Favorite" in week 6 actually went on to win the Super Bowl. Without looking I'd say the number is quite low.

[Big Turk]

Bills fans: 

OMG the sky is falling! We suck! We are going to finish 3rd in the division! Even the Fins will beat us out!

 

Vegas: 

Yeah, we have seen this before many times. We know how this plays out.

[Ga boy]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Yeah for sure.

 

Having to rely on Ogun, Hairston and Hoecht is not something I wanted to be in position for.  We need them badly.

But Hairston is also a question mark because he's a rookie.

 

We need safety's badly.  I don't know what Rapp does to keep his job.  There are big lanes to throw to all the time for some reason.

I had the endzone view yesterday and saw it all.  It's nuts.  I can see read where the ball needs to go to as fast as Pennix sees it.

Rapp just is never around the ball and dives at ball carriers, never wraps up.

Question about Hairstons status and participation.  Is he allowed to participate in film analysis with the secondary, development of game plan, studying the so-called complex D scheme that so many say takes a while to adopt, and I’ll ask even though probably not:  can he participate in any practices in any fashion?  

21 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Just out of curiosity, I wonder how many times the "Super Bowl Favorite" in week 6 actually went on to win the Super Bowl. Without looking I'd say the number is quite low.

I would guess a medium low, say once every 7 years.

[90sBills]

17 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Bills fans: 

OMG the sky is falling! We suck! We are going to finish 3rd in the division! Even the Fins will beat us out!

 

Vegas: 

Yeah, we have seen this before many times. We know how this plays out.

If history bears out then Vegas knows they’re raking in any and all Bills Super Bowl bets. 

[BillytheKid]

2 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

On BetMGM, Bills are currently the Super Bowl favorites at +600.  Other contenders include:

Chiefs +650

Lions +750

Packers +800

Eagles +1000

 

Is Vegas and the betting public just ignoring the Bills’ last two games?  Or are there some reasons we shouldn’t be jumping off any bridges just yet?

The betting “public” has nothing to do with it. 
 

The oddsmakers are the ones who adjusted the lines. Their was some professional money that came in on the Chiefs. 
 

Public money doesn’t move lines 99% of the time. Only professional money does.

 

The oddsmakers as of right now still think the Bills will get the ship righted and be there at the end with the Chiefs. So people should probably quit jumping off of a cliff over a couple of games. Especially with the injuries and suspended players. 
 

Also I don’t want to hear from anyone trying to tell me how it works since this is what I have been doing for over 30 years and know exactly how it works and what moves lines and what doesn’t and how the inter workings of Sports Books actually work. Public money doesn’t do anything.

 

The Sports Books don’t want 50/50 action on both sides of every spread (that’s the biggest myth in Sports betting ever) and many other things. 
 

Point is as of right now the oddsmakers think the Bills will be there at the end of the year along with the Chiefs. While the average fan is freaking out on this board. 
 

Now does that mean the Bills will stay up there? Nope.

 

Have to see how they do back from the bye with more of their pieces back and how they respond. Until then I wouldn’t go jumping off any cliffs because of a couple of losses. 
 

 

[Sweats]

1 hour ago, psuscott16 said:

Truth is, there isn't a complete team so far this year. All the top teams have their warts.

 

Fanduel has similar odds - 

 

Bills +650: We know our issues

 

GB +700: Lost to Cleveland. Tied Dallas. Lots of injuries to WR.

 

KC +700: Slow start but getting guys back. Defense didn't start strong.

 

Lions +850: Lost to 2 top teams. They at least can destroy the teams they should.

 

Eagles +950: They feel like frauds at times, barely hanging on like Buffalo.

 

Rams +1500: Hot and cold

 

No clear cut powerhouse this year.

 

 

 

 

 

No love for Indy?.........they're coming on strong

[sunshynman]

4 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

 

No love for Indy?.........they're coming on strong

Not enough data to say they won't implode. 

[BRH]

I just want to keep bumping this topic because it's fun to ***** with some people.

[harryS]

12 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

 

 

The oddsmakers as of right now still think the Bills will get the ship righted and be there at the end with the Chiefs. So people should probably quit jumping off of a cliff over a couple of games. Especially with the injuries and suspended players.

 

 

 

The oddsmakers do not hold this opinion at all; they don't know if the Bills will turn it around or not.  Their job is just to make it so that if you bet on the Bills in the futures market, you're making a bad bet.  They're not supposed to give you good value on ANY team; if they do, then they made a mistake. As for the Bills, which were a very popular offseason futures bet, they're forcing you to make a really bad bet right now.

 

  

12 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

 

Also I don’t want to hear from anyone trying to tell me how it works since this is what I have been doing for over 30 years and know exactly how it works and what moves lines and what doesn’t and how the inter workings of Sports Books actually work. Public money doesn’t do anything.

 

 

 

I agree with you that public money doesn't move lines (with rare exceptions), but I don't think you're doing a good job explaining what's happening with the Super Bowl futures market.

[Dick_Cheney]

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Its because they have seen a pattern pretty much every year with us where we suck for 2-4 games.  Like suck.

Like losing to the Jags coached by Urban Meyer suck.

 

This will change when we lose to Carolina after not having made any significant moves during the bye. Patriots very well might be favored to win the division soon.

[Riverboat Ritchie]

3 hours ago, Process said:

As bad as things seem right now, reality is if we win the next two games we will be in very good position to get the one seed. 

You’re right and my heart wants to believe it could happen but my brain and eyes tell me that with this current roster, there is no chance in hell that will happen. The Falcons were giving us that game and should have been up 28-7 at end of half and we freakin jet sweep.  We are small slow old and incredibly stale and painstakingly unmotivated. 

[harryS]

9 minutes ago, harryS said:

 

I agree with you that public money doesn't move lines (with rare exceptions), but I don't think you're doing a good job explaining what's happening with the Super Bowl futures market.

 

A good explanation for what's happening with the Bills in the Super Bowl futures market would contain these words or points:

(1) "Priors"

(2) A reminder of who the other preseason AFC favorites were and how they're doing in comparison to the Bills.

(3) Why the Bills were a very popular offseason Super Bowl bet (among sharps especially) and how that affects the current line, i.e. the books will take more Bills bets but only at a horrible price for the bettor.

Generally speaking, the books aren't in the prediction business.  They're in the "force you to make a bad bet and collect the vig" business.

[BillytheKid]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Just out of curiosity, I wonder how many times the "Super Bowl Favorite" in week 6 actually went on to win the Super Bowl. Without looking I'd say the number is quite low.

 

Odds on favorites after NFL week 6 to go on to win the Super Bowl the last 20 years.

 

 

 

2005 Colts) lost to Pittsburgh in playoffs

 

2006 Colts ) and Bears. Colts won Super Bowl

 

2007 New England) lost in Super Bowl to Giants

 

2008 Giants) lost to Philly in divisional round

 

2009 Eagles) lost wildcard to Dallas

 

2010 Colts) lost wildcard to Jets

 

2011 Packers) lost divisional to Giants

 

2012 Pats) Lost AFC Championship to Ravens

 

2013 Denver) Lost Super Bowl to Seattle

 

2014 Denver, Seattle) Seattle lost to the Pats in Super Bowl

 

2015 Packers, Pats) Pats lost to Denver AFC championship

 

2016 Vikings) Missed the playoffs after 5-0 start.

 

2017 Pats ) Lost Super Bowl to Eagles

 

2018 Kansas City) Lost in AFC Chmapionship to Pats

 

2019 Pats, Saints) Pats lost wildcard to Titans

 

2020 Kansas City) Lost Super Bowl to Tampa Bay

 

2021 Buffalo) Lost 13 second game

 

2022 Buffalo) Lost divisional to Cincinnati

 

2023 49ers) Lost Super Bowl to KC

 

2024 Kansas City) Lost Super Bowl to Philly

 

 

Conclusion :

 

This is the Bills 3rd time in the last 5 years being favorites after week 6. 
 

 

 

Only one time did the odds on favorite after week 6 win it. The Colts in 2006-07

 

Teams made it to the Super Bowl 8 times. Losing 7 of the 8.

 

Made it at least to AFC championship game 11 times.

 

Only one team missed the playoffs. The Vikings.

 

So you can make it to the Super Bowl but the odds you win it are only 5% based on this 20 year sample.

 

So not likely to win it.

 

You have over a 50% to make it to the AFC championship game then you are just hoping you can win it and win the Super Bowl with things falling your way those 2 games. 

51 minutes ago, harryS said:

 

The oddsmakers do not hold this opinion at all; they don't know if the Bills will turn it around or not.  Their job is just to make it so that if you bet on the Bills in the futures market, you're making a bad bet.  They're not supposed to give you good value on ANY team; if they do, then they made a mistake. As for the Bills, which were a very popular offseason futures bet, they're forcing you to make a really bad bet right now.

 

  

 

I agree with you that public money doesn't move lines (with rare exceptions), but I don't think you're doing a good job explaining what's happening with the Super Bowl futures market.

I never said it has anything to do with making a good or bad bet my friend. I’m just telling you what they have as odds right now and as of now they still think Buffalo will right the ship per se. Doesn’t mean they are going to win it by any means. 
 

It is definitely a bad bet if you take Buffalo or KC for that matter. Only one team has won the Super Bowl after being an odds on favorite after week 6 the last 20 years. So you are getting a 5% chance of winning your wager. So I do agree with you. I didn’t maybe explain it as well as I could have. 

Edited 12 hours ago by BillytheKid

[reddogblitz]

I don't know. Screw Vegas and betting.

[Casey D]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Just out of curiosity, I wonder how many times the "Super Bowl Favorite" in week 6 actually went on to win the Super Bowl. Without looking I'd say the number is quite low.

Well sure.  Favorites mid-season have only about a 10% chance of winning SB.  Notwithstanding what many here think, winning it all is never probable.

[Billsfanatic8989]

2 hours ago, psuscott16 said:

Truth is, there isn't a complete team so far this year. All the top teams have their warts.

 

Fanduel has similar odds - 

 

Bills +650: We know our issues

 

GB +700: Lost to Cleveland. Tied Dallas. Lots of injuries to WR.

 

KC +700: Slow start but getting guys back. Defense didn't start strong.

 

Lions +850: Lost to 2 top teams. They at least can destroy the teams they should.

 

Eagles +950: They feel like frauds at times, barely hanging on like Buffalo.

 

Rams +1500: Hot and cold

 

No clear cut powerhouse this year.

I don't see any real flaws with KC. Great QB, Decent OL, receivers returning, great D, Great HC, Great DC. And a relatively weak AFC. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

33 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

 

Odds on favorites after NFL week 6 to go on to win the Super Bowl the last 20 years.

 

 

 

2005 Colts) lost to Pittsburgh in playoffs

 

2006 Colts ) and Bears. Colts won Super Bowl

 

2007 New England) lost in Super Bowl to Giants

 

2008 Giants) lost to Philly in divisional round

 

2009 Eagles) lost wildcard to Dallas

 

2010 Colts) lost wildcard to Jets

 

2011 Packers) lost divisional to Giants

 

2012 Pats) Lost AFC Championship to Ravens

 

2013 Denver) Lost Super Bowl to Seattle

 

2014 Denver, Seattle) Seattle lost to the Pats in Super Bowl

 

2015 Packers, Pats) Pats lost to Denver AFC championship

 

2016 Vikings) Missed the playoffs after 5-0 start.

 

2017 Pats ) Lost Super Bowl to Eagles

 

2018 Kansas City) Lost in AFC Chmapionship to Pats

 

2019 Pats, Saints) Pats lost wildcard to Titans

 

2020 Kansas City) Lost Super Bowl to Tampa Bay

 

2021 Buffalo) Lost 13 second game

 

2022 Buffalo) Lost divisional to Cincinnati

 

2023 49ers) Lost Super Bowl to KC

 

2024 Kansas City) Lost Super Bowl to Philly

 

 

Conclusion :

 

This is the Bills 3rd time in the last 5 years being favorites after week 6. 
 

 

 

Only one time did the odds on favorite after week 6 win it. The Colts in 2006-07

 

Teams made it to the Super Bowl 8 times. Losing 7 of the 8.

 

Made it at least to AFC championship game 11 times.

 

Only one team missed the playoffs. The Vikings.

 

So you can make it to the Super Bowl but the odds you win it are only 5% based on this 20 year sample.

 

So not likely to win it.

 

You have over a 50% to make it to the AFC championship game then you are just hoping you can win it and win the Super Bowl with things falling your way those 2 games. 

I never said it has anything to do with making a good or bad bet my friend. I’m just telling you what they have as odds right now and as of now they still think Buffalo will right the ship per se. Doesn’t mean they are going to win it by any means. 
 

It is definitely a bad bet if you take Buffalo or KC for that matter. Only one team has won the Super Bowl after being an odds on favorite after week 6 the last 20 years. So you are getting a 5% chance of winning your wager. So I do agree with you. I didn’t maybe explain it as well as I could have. 

Wow. Excellent work here. I really appreciate that!

[psuscott16]

1 hour ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

 

No love for Indy?.........they're coming on strong

Right after LA at +1800

 

Bills dropped to +700 and are tied with GB. KC first at +650 now. 

[90sBills]

10 minutes ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

I don't see any real flaws with KC. Great QB, Decent OL, receivers returning, great D, Great HC, Great DC. And a relatively weak AFC. 

KC’s flaws are mediocre running game and inconsistent run defense. 

[Donuts and Doritos]

Beane & McD's Bye Week To Do List to make SB:

 

1. Work on tackling.

2. Remove jet sweep from playbook & burn it.

3. Get Kincaid back. 

4. Work on tackling.

5. Remove screen pass from playbook & burn it.

6. Get Hoyt & Ogunjobi back 

7. Work on tackling.
8. Role w/ Shaq Thompson @ MLB.
9. Get Hairston going. 

10. Make Walker a starter.

11. Work on tackling.

12. Bench Rapp.
13. Trade for a CB & Safety.

14. Work on tackling.

15. Get Palmer back.
16. Activate Gabe Davis as WR 5.

17. Cut either Moore or Samuel.

18. Work on tackling.
19. Put Joe Brady on notice to cut the cute *****, scheme WR open, start passing to RBs, move guys around in the formation to get matchups, ya know basic competent OC *****. 
20. McD take Defensive play calling duties from Babich.
21. Work on tackling.
22. Threaten the strength & conditioning coach w/ physical violence if anymore guys go down with injuries.

23. Did I mention work on tackling.

 

There team fixed

 

 

Edited 12 hours ago by Donuts and Doritos