All 22 Review: Bills vs Patriots

[KOKBILLS]

14 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

There were a few things I thought went into the poor run game.  Collinsworth mentioned one on the broadcast.   The Bills personnel and where the Quarterback lines up under center tips the defense off to whether its run or pass.   Against the Patriots 80% of the snaps they took from under center were run plays.   Even the personnel groupings were a bit of a tip off.  78% of the run plays came out of 11 or 13 personnel.  Essentially, Brady didnt make them guess enough. 

 

Joe Marino mentioned the Bills ran a lot of 11 personnel.  Which is true.  But when they ran in 11 personnel, even if they had trips to one side, they ran the receivers tight to the tackles rather than outside the hashes.     The Bills ran 46% of their run plays out of some sort of bunch formations.  Which means in those instances they were facing some variation of an 8, 9, or even 10 man boxes.  Even if the line plays well, which they did, its hard to make progress against stacked boxes.   Further evidence the Patriots were not very worried about play action or the wideouts ability to beat anyone over the top.  Next time they play a team like this it would be helpful to show more runs out of shotgun and spread formations.  Right now Brady is tipping his hand. 

 

Lastly, give the Patriots credit, their linebackers are extremely patient in the run game.   They are sound with their gap integrity and dont overrun plays.   Brady needs to make teams like this more uncomfortable with misdirection.   They ran that jet sweep, but never set it up with fakes, or motion across from one side to the other.  Daboll was a master at this.   He could show you three plays out of the same look and just build and build on it.  I miss that aspect of his coaching. 

 

 

Joe also mentioned the fact that the Bills are getting exactly what they want a lot...stacked boxes, single high...but all to often just running right into them... They have to take advantage of the mismatches they are creating... I've been saying this for two years now... They are REAL stubborn with the run game... They are a great running team no question... But they also get stubborn with it and don't take advantage of what opposing Defenses are giving them. 

[thenorthremembers]

 

6 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

The “deep diving” into this game is way too much.  The coaches are bad, the defense is bad, the wrs are bad. 2 flukey fumbles don’t happen the game is over by half time.  That isn’t even including the redzone pick Allen has never thrown.  No different than the, Jets, Dolphins, or Saints games.  Going into the game, how do those teams win?  Multiple turnovers.  The Patriots got them and Buffalo lost a game they shouldnt.  NE is closer to NO than they are close to Buffalo.  Deep dive, dont beat yourself by being careless with the rock.  The end. 

 

The deep diving has more to do with me enjoying the intricacies of the game of football.  Yes, you can boil it down like you did here.  You can watch the ball 100% of the time in the game and enjoy the hell out of it.  I dont bemoan people who do.  But why bother commenting on the thread if its not what you like?   

8 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

 

This is 100% a Vrabel thing and it shows. We historically struggle against him. 

If I am honest I cant stand the guy.   A big part of that has to do with him being a very good coach.  

[thenorthremembers]

22 minutes ago, chris heff said:

I don’t have an answer, Just more questions. Am I missing something with Moore? Everyone keeps saying Bills can’t stretch the field, doesn’t Moore have like 4.32 or 4.34 speed? Is Shavers so important on special teams that he should be active rather than Moore? 

 

He plays the same position as Samuel in the offense.  If he is up then Samuel would likely be down, not Shavers.   

[chris heff]

16 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

He plays the same position as Samuel in the offense.  If he is up then Samuel would likely be down, not Shavers.   

Moore can play slot or outside. Samuel is slot and Shavers is outside. 

[thenorthremembers]

3 minutes ago, chris heff said:

Moore can play slot or outside. Samuel is slot and Shavers is outside. 

 

Maybe by the depth chart but Samuel played outside this past weekend as well.  He was literally running the same motions and routes Moore was running in Jets game. 

[Mat68]

6 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

 

The deep diving has more to do with me enjoying the intricacies of the game of football.  Yes, you can boil it down like you did here.  You can watch the ball 100% of the time in the game and enjoy the hell out of it.  I dont bemoan people who do.  But why bother commenting on the thread if its not what you like?   

If I am honest I cant stand the guy.   A big part of that has to do with him being a very good coach.  

Dont paint me into a corner here.  I see the whole picture.  I do enjoy all 22 break downs. Football can be real complex and at the same very easy.  I do understand how complex it is.  I’d argue going frame for frame is also taking the complexity out of it though.  The speed adds to the complexity.  Those millisecond decision each player makes are the difference in good and bad plays.  It all goes together.

 

My point the game played out in the only style Ne was capable of winning.  I dont think this is the game to dive into and find the “reason for the loss” I think it was quite obvious.  Its this added to almost every other thread here. Sky is falling, nothing is working mentality.  When no, Buffalo had its first multiple turnover game in over a seasons worth of games.  It was bound to happen rather now than later.  Sucks it was vs the Patriots.  
 

Tape, stats, eye balls all say Buffalo was the better team imo.  Buffalo opened the door for NE to be competitive.  Maye went above the scheme for Ne to get the victory.  

[chris heff]

3 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

Maybe by the depth chart but Samuel played outside this past weekend as well.  He was literally running the same motions and routes Moore was running in Jets game. 

I believe you, but the Bills have a WR problem, Moore is better than Shavers. Are you saying the coaches can’t figure out how to get best group on the field?

[Mat68]

36 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Joe also mentioned the fact that the Bills are getting exactly what they want a lot...stacked boxes, single high...but all to often just running right into them... They have to take advantage of the mismatches they are creating... I've been saying this for two years now... They are REAL stubborn with the run game... They are a great running team no question... But they also get stubborn with it and don't take advantage of what opposing Defenses are giving them. 

Long runs happen against stacked boxes.  Not against light ones. The reason you go heavy formation is to get a hat on a hat play side.  Allen holds a guy backside.  Cook forces a missed tackle and is out the gate.  Last couple weeks Cook is a hand on his ankle away of 40 plus yard runs.  He got 10-15 yards on them.  A diving defender tripped him up just barely.  

[colin]

when we were multi back/tight end we ran almost every time, and not super well, and we passed twice and it was for good results.

 

passing out of 10 or 11 we didn't do so great, because NE has great outside corners and we have weak wrs, also we are predictable based on how we line up.

 

brady took an ish in the bed.  the rag tag d fell apart in the 4th quarter, but if we stuck to multi back and tight end formations and mixed up the pass and run, we woulda walked to 30 points, which we have done in ever other game of the season, and won the game boat racing them.

 

it is so frustrating being a fan of this team sometimes.

[thenorthremembers]

23 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Dont paint me into a corner here.  I see the whole picture.  I do enjoy all 22 break downs. Football can be real complex and at the same very easy.  I do understand how complex it is.  I’d argue going frame for frame is also taking the complexity out of it though.  The speed adds to the complexity.  Those millisecond decision each player makes are the difference in good and bad plays.  It all goes together.

 

My point the game played out in the only style Ne was capable of winning.  I dont think this is the game to dive into and find the “reason for the loss” I think it was quite obvious.  Its this added to almost every other thread here. Sky is falling, nothing is working mentality.  When no, Buffalo had its first multiple turnover game in over a seasons worth of games.  It was bound to happen rather now than later.  Sucks it was vs the Patriots.  
 

Tape, stats, eye balls all say Buffalo was the better team imo.  Buffalo opened the door for NE to be competitive.  Maye went above the scheme for Ne to get the victory.  

I fully agree with you.  Looking at the All 22 actually helped me get a better understanding that the Bills probably should have won the game.  I am less worried about the second matchup after watching it. 

1 minute ago, colin said:

when we were multi back/tight end we ran almost every time, and not super well, and we passed twice and it was for good results.

 

passing out of 10 or 11 we didn't do so great, because NE has great outside corners and we have weak wrs, also we are predictable based on how we line up.

 

brady took an ish in the bed.  the rag tag d fell apart in the 4th quarter, but if we stuck to multi back and tight end formations and mixed up the pass and run, we woulda walked to 30 points, which we have done in ever other game of the season, and won the game boat racing them.

 

it is so frustrating being a fan of this team sometimes.

 

Agree with you on the 10 personnel.  But I think going more 11 in the 2nd half is what helped the passing game get started. 

20 minutes ago, chris heff said:

I believe you, but the Bills have a WR problem, Moore is better than Shavers. Are you saying the coaches can’t figure out how to get best group on the field?

I may end up being wrong, but I think the coaching staff is trying to figure out which player they want to start full time in that role.    If Moore can take that role Samuel would be expendable in a trade. 

[billsfan89]

These All-22 reviews make me think the biggest issue isn't maybe needing a big piece on the defense (although I think adding a competent corner will help) but once again is needing an outside WR teams will respect. Keon's improving but he's still very much up and down, Palmer is OK but teams are clearly just OK with him being given one on one matchups, Shakir is a slot machine but not someone whose going to consistently win on the boundary, Kincaid is a TE not gonna be a consistent boundary guy, and Samuel and Moore are more gadget WR's.

 

I think largely the defense is flawed and adding a piece in the secondary will help, but the defense isn't a competent corner or an upgrade over Rapp away from being a dominant top 5 unit either. The PED Twins, Ed, Mad Max, and maybe a starting caliber piece added via trade will help a lot but this defense isn't going to be elite most likely. 

 

But the offense getting a Chris Olave type boundary WR would make this offense truly unstoppable. Teams would have to respect the boundary WR's much more consistently. I think an offense that can consistently score with the best of them helps the defense too as it make offenses one dimensional which makes this defense so much more potent. Besides Olave whose a concussion risk I am not sure what other teams have WR's that fit what the Bills need and are bad teams willing to trade a good WR? 

[GunnerBill]

18 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Going to give these a shot.  Likely not going to get too far into the weeds on it because it takes a lifetime to watch these things, but its helpful from a fan perspective to get an idea of the nuts and bolts.   I'll start with the offense and go by half.    If I have time I'll add the defense later on.    

 

1st Half Summary- Blame it on the coordinator

I think it's often too easy to blame coordinators for bad football, especially if you haven't watched the game tape to get a real understanding of what prompted certain calls.   That said, in the 1st half the Bills were essentially running the throw stuff at the wall and see if it sticks scheme.  The personnel groupings and formations were all over the place.  They tried everything from 10 personnel with 4 wide and trips, to 21 and 22 personnel with bunch formations, often using one wideout.   It was like Joe Brady was trying to reinvent the wheel of high school play calling.   Brady came into the game knowing the Patriots run a heavily man-based defense, and most of what they were trying to do was win outside the hashes with wideouts who can't beat man coverage.    The game plan in the first half was lazy, and akin to a coach deciding to watch zero tape of the opposing defense.   

 

Notes:

Its man defense- where are the crossers, digs, and slants?  

Multiple instances of wideouts and tight ends running short of the sticks

Need to start running more out of the shotgun

 

2nd Half Summary- Blame it on the Quarterback

The Bills were in 11 personnel around 25% of the time in the first half.   In the second half they stopped getting cute and ran 11 personnel 72% of the time.    On top of that they finally ran a crossing route!  A lot has been made about the wideouts being bad in this offense.  While they aren't speed demons who can split two high safety or win on go routes, they can produce when asked to do what they do well.    That said, the QB needs to be who he was in the first four games and take what the defense gives him.   Sadly, that's not the QB the Bills got in the second half.  While he was more productive, the All 22 showed he was dead set on doing what he wanted rather than taking what was there.

 

Have screenshots of the plays below but no clue how to post.  

 

5:17 Left 3rd Quarter- Kincaid absolutely smokes the safety at the same time Josh tries the back shoulder to  Shavers.  If he waits a second longer, he likely has Kincaid for 6.

 

11:18 Left 4th Quarter- Crossing route is wide open to Knox.  Josh comes off the read.

 

5:11 Left 4th Quarter- Josh doesnt take the easy outbreaking route to Kincaid.  Instead he throws to Cook on the sideline covered and is lucky to get a PI.

 

5:01 Left 4th Quarter- This one is on Samuel- Call looks to be a Go or a Post.   Corner drops off 10 yards.  Instead of breaking off his route to a out or comeback Samuel keeps running towards the CB.  Would have been an easy 6-yard gain plus space to run.

 

4:52 Left 4th- Josh doesnt take the open crosser to Coleman.  Cook doesnt block free rusher.  Sack

 

2:43 Left 4th- Josh has Cook wide open on the crosser, doesnt take it for an easy 5 yard gain.  Also has Palmer on an outbreaking route for 7 or more. Scrambles, has Knox open coming back towards the hash for a 17 yard pass, doesnt take it.  Launches a pass across the field to Coleman in the back of the endzone.   Out of bounds.

 

2:31 Left 4th- Shakir and Kincaid immediately open on crosser short of sticks.   Johnson has single coverage on a wheel route to the endzone-why isnt Cook in the game!  Samuel wide open at the front of opposite side of the endzone- likely an impossible throw.

 

 

Game Summary- The good news is the Bills beat themselves.  I am not sure what Joe Brady was doing in the first half of the game.  I am also not sure what Josh Allen was doing in the 2nd half.   The Bills need another outside WR, but they arent as hapless there as I thought before I watched the film.   Put this one away, dont shoot yourself in the foot next time you play the Pats.   The Patriots didnt do anything great on defense.  I have every expectation that Allen wont play like this in the second meeting.  

 

Player Grades

 

Bull Market

The Offensive Line- They lost a few reps but otherwise they were fantastic.  Specifically, the left side of the line played very well

 

Kincaid- He had a great night and it would have been even better if he played more reps.  I dont care if its as a slot, outside WR, or either tight end position, he needs to be in the game unless he's injured or needs a breather.   His blocking still leaves a little to be desired.  But outside of Cook or Allen he is the best weapon the Bills have on offense.  

 

Better than I Expected

Dawson Knox- Not flashy but he did his job.   He was open when he needed to be, whether the QB saw him or not.   

 

Josh Palmer- Not a game breaker by any means but he is the best outside receiver the Bills have in terms of understanding leverage and route running.   Needs to be on the field more. 

 

Bear Market

Keon Coleman- He caught a touchdown but the tape isn't good.   He flat out can't beat corners off the line in man coverage.   The coordinator doesn't put him in advantageous positions.     Much better in the second half because Brady finally started calling crossing routes.  But he is a very limited player at this point in his career.  

 

Shavers- Not to dunk on a kid that barely made the team but for those of you waiting for him to be the savior at WR, stop.  

 

 

 

 

 

I started the all22 yesterday - but didn't get very far into the second half.... I think your summary of the first half in particular and the criticism of Brady is right. The middle of the field was the Bills advantage all night and every time they attacked there - it worked. Unfortunately it felt like they had come in with this plan to try and attack the boundary and the edges and for some reason took way too long (until that penultimate drive and the Keon TD) to get away from it - that drive was almost all middle of the field and we marched. 

[mbowman14]

13 minutes ago, colin said:

when we were multi back/tight end we ran almost every time, and not super well, and we passed twice and it was for good results.

 

passing out of 10 or 11 we didn't do so great, because NE has great outside corners and we have weak wrs, also we are predictable based on how we line up.

 

brady took an ish in the bed.  the rag tag d fell apart in the 4th quarter, but if we stuck to multi back and tight end formations and mixed up the pass and run, we woulda walked to 30 points, which we have done in ever other game of the season, and won the game boat racing them.

 

it is so frustrating being a fan of this team sometimes.

That is 100% the point and is not second-guessing because it was called for last week.  Getting NE into heavy personnel and taking advantage of them with PA was the way to attack out of the gate.  Get them behind and force them to play a game of catchup all night long.  The Bills came out with a pathetic plan including Knox jet-sweep and a flea-flicker that was nearly disastrous.  That is the stuff you try when Tyrod Taylor is your QB and you don't think you can beat the opponent with your conventional offense.  NE couldn't and wouldn't have covered Kincaid all night because they don't have the personnel to handle him.  Stop being cute and play to your strengths/the opponent's weaknesses.  A few throws early would have greatly opened up lanes for Cook as LBs and S would be thinking PA first.  Very frustrating plan from Brady.

Edited 2 hours ago by mbowman14

[thenorthremembers]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

I started the all22 yesterday - but didn't get very far into the second half.... I think your summary of the first half in particular and the criticism of Brady is right. The middle of the field was the Bills advantage all night and every time they attacked there - it worked. Unfortunately it felt like they had come in with this plan to try and attack the boundary and the edges and for some reason took way too long (until that penultimate drive and the Keon TD) to get away from it - that drive was almost all middle of the field and we marched. 

Yeah I couldnt make sense of what they were trying to do.  Just all over the place in terms of formations and personnel.  Then they seemed intent on trying to win outside the hashes.   The Patriots corners had no issue running with them.   Not even a challenge really.  

 

I guess he wanted to throw the kitchen sink at them and adjust at halftime.  Instead he wasted two quarters of football trying to do what they cant do. 

[corta765]

3 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Fully agree.  They dont have a guy who can consistently beat teams week in and week out without help from the coordinators plan.   

I would add on that because when building a team in a cap league you have to pick where you devote your resources to the Bills have decided that WR is not a priority and with everyone eats they are ok with the coordinator scheming it up/Josh being Josh. They instead are trying to use the resources to help Josh on D (don't get me going on how that project has been thus far) so when they do play KC in a title game and Josh/the O put up 29 points the defense maybe finally hold KC to 27 24 anything less then 29. I get the idea of it is impossible to build a perfect team in todays NFL with the cap once a QB is paid which makes hitting your picks so vital along with getting the right FAs with what money you have.

 

I would be more ok with the idea of what they have done with the WR corp if we could see some tangible progress by the defense. Right now and after Sunday I see the same result coming as last January which is what is upsetting and does make me question then why not add a true elite WR or at least solid WR with good separation. I hated the fact they ignored the WR spot in 23' and forced the Coleman pick in 24' instead of trading up.

 

It is what it is, the offense more weeks then not will be good to dominate and Josh can win a title with that. I know the majority of the league wishes they had our O line and Cook is a legit blue chip talent now which helps big time. So it is a very good offense for the most part but it has its flaw with the WR's, especially in games where separation matters and/or they are having an off week with penalties turnovers etc.. I listened to Sal's podcast with the Boston reporters last week and the Pats guys said how Josh seems at his best right now like Brady where they can feed 7-8 + different targets a game. So while we are frustrated a times with the WRs it does seem nationally their is a huge respect for the offense in general and what it does. We just reallyyyy need to hope that the defense gets healthy, the guys who come back play to expectation, and they clean up the tackling otherwise our fate is going to mirror recent playoff losses the last two years.

Edited 24 minutes ago by corta765

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Joe also mentioned the fact that the Bills are getting exactly what they want a lot...stacked boxes, single high...but all to often just running right into them... They have to take advantage of the mismatches they are creating... I've been saying this for two years now... They are REAL stubborn with the run game... They are a great running team no question... But they also get stubborn with it and don't take advantage of what opposing Defenses are giving them. 

This is IMO a strategic and not a tactical choice.  Reading between the lines McD became increasingly frustrated with Daboll & Dorsey for not sticking with the run. Combine this with the need to protect his defense McD's game strategy appears to be run clock and keep the opposing O off the field and score.  That's nice in theory but hard to pull off on a regular basis. 

 

And I'm not sure McD would be thrilled with a 2 play 70 yard TD drive taking 45 seconds. 

 

The problem with this strategy is that it's asking way to much of an offense that hasn't exactly been showered with the lions share of resources over the years.  Back during the SB seasons the Bills would put their D in tough spots by scoring to quickly.  But this always seemed like a good tradeoff as the high powered Kelly O put a lot of pressure on opponents.  McD clearly does not want to go down this path.

 

 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by CincyBillsFan

[The Frankish Reich]

19 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Going to give these a shot.  Likely not going to get too far into the weeds on it because it takes a lifetime to watch these things, but its helpful from a fan perspective to get an idea of the nuts and bolts.   I'll start with the offense and go by half.    If I have time I'll add the defense later on.    

 

1st Half Summary- Blame it on the coordinator

I think it's often too easy to blame coordinators for bad football, especially if you haven't watched the game tape to get a real understanding of what prompted certain calls.   That said, in the 1st half the Bills were essentially running the throw stuff at the wall and see if it sticks scheme.  The personnel groupings and formations were all over the place.  They tried everything from 10 personnel with 4 wide and trips, to 21 and 22 personnel with bunch formations, often using one wideout.   It was like Joe Brady was trying to reinvent the wheel of high school play calling.   Brady came into the game knowing the Patriots run a heavily man-based defense, and most of what they were trying to do was win outside the hashes with wideouts who can't beat man coverage.    The game plan in the first half was lazy, and akin to a coach deciding to watch zero tape of the opposing defense.   

 

Notes:

Its man defense- where are the crossers, digs, and slants?  

Multiple instances of wideouts and tight ends running short of the sticks

Need to start running more out of the shotgun

 

2nd Half Summary- Blame it on the Quarterback

The Bills were in 11 personnel around 25% of the time in the first half.   In the second half they stopped getting cute and ran 11 personnel 72% of the time.    On top of that they finally ran a crossing route!  A lot has been made about the wideouts being bad in this offense.  While they aren't speed demons who can split two high safety or win on go routes, they can produce when asked to do what they do well.    That said, the QB needs to be who he was in the first four games and take what the defense gives him.   Sadly, that's not the QB the Bills got in the second half.  While he was more productive, the All 22 showed he was dead set on doing what he wanted rather than taking what was there.

 

Have screenshots of the plays below but no clue how to post.  

 

5:17 Left 3rd Quarter- Kincaid absolutely smokes the safety at the same time Josh tries the back shoulder to  Shavers.  If he waits a second longer, he likely has Kincaid for 6.

 

11:18 Left 4th Quarter- Crossing route is wide open to Knox.  Josh comes off the read.

 

5:11 Left 4th Quarter- Josh doesnt take the easy outbreaking route to Kincaid.  Instead he throws to Cook on the sideline covered and is lucky to get a PI.

 

5:01 Left 4th Quarter- This one is on Samuel- Call looks to be a Go or a Post.   Corner drops off 10 yards.  Instead of breaking off his route to a out or comeback Samuel keeps running towards the CB.  Would have been an easy 6-yard gain plus space to run.

 

4:52 Left 4th- Josh doesnt take the open crosser to Coleman.  Cook doesnt block free rusher.  Sack

 

2:43 Left 4th- Josh has Cook wide open on the crosser, doesnt take it for an easy 5 yard gain.  Also has Palmer on an outbreaking route for 7 or more. Scrambles, has Knox open coming back towards the hash for a 17 yard pass, doesnt take it.  Launches a pass across the field to Coleman in the back of the endzone.   Out of bounds.

 

2:31 Left 4th- Shakir and Kincaid immediately open on crosser short of sticks.   Johnson has single coverage on a wheel route to the endzone-why isnt Cook in the game!  Samuel wide open at the front of opposite side of the endzone- likely an impossible throw.

 

 

Game Summary- The good news is the Bills beat themselves.  I am not sure what Joe Brady was doing in the first half of the game.  I am also not sure what Josh Allen was doing in the 2nd half.   The Bills need another outside WR, but they arent as hapless there as I thought before I watched the film.   Put this one away, dont shoot yourself in the foot next time you play the Pats.   The Patriots didnt do anything great on defense.  I have every expectation that Allen wont play like this in the second meeting.  

 

Player Grades

 

Bull Market

The Offensive Line- They lost a few reps but otherwise they were fantastic.  Specifically, the left side of the line played very well

 

Kincaid- He had a great night and it would have been even better if he played more reps.  I dont care if its as a slot, outside WR, or either tight end position, he needs to be in the game unless he's injured or needs a breather.   His blocking still leaves a little to be desired.  But outside of Cook or Allen he is the best weapon the Bills have on offense.  

 

Better than I Expected

Dawson Knox- Not flashy but he did his job.   He was open when he needed to be, whether the QB saw him or not.   

 

Josh Palmer- Not a game breaker by any means but he is the best outside receiver the Bills have in terms of understanding leverage and route running.   Needs to be on the field more. 

 

Bear Market

Keon Coleman- He caught a touchdown but the tape isn't good.   He flat out can't beat corners off the line in man coverage.   The coordinator doesn't put him in advantageous positions.     Much better in the second half because Brady finally started calling crossing routes.  But he is a very limited player at this point in his career.  

 

Shavers- Not to dunk on a kid that barely made the team but for those of you waiting for him to be the savior at WR, stop.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks - fantastic report!

 

Question: is it fair to say that none of our receivers can consistently gain separation vs. good CBs?  You note that Palmer seems to be the most effective at good old fashioned route running, but was he open more than we thought?

 

Shakir and Kincaid operate effectively against zones or when faced with a mismatch (LB/S), but that's kind of limiting ...

[KOKBILLS]

43 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

This is IMO a strategic and not a tactical choice.  Reading between the lines McD became increasingly frustrated with Daboll & Dorsey for not sticking with the run. Combine this with the need to protect his defense McD's game strategy appears to be run clock and keep the opposing O off the field and score.  That's nice in theory but hard to pull off on a regular basis. 

 

And I'm not sure McD would be thrilled with a 2 play 70 yard TD drive taking 45 seconds. 

 

The problem with this strategy is that it's asking way to much of an offense that hasn't exactly been showered with the lions share of resources over the years.  Back during the SB seasons the Bills would put their D in tough spots by scoring to quickly.  But this always seemed like a good tradeoff as the high powered Kelly O put a lot of pressure on opponents.  McD clearly does not want to go down this path.

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not certain where the confusion is coming in here... Passing more against stacked boxes is not advocating for over the top 2 play drives. It's taking advantage of what they have earned. They have earned the matchups, especially in the slot where they can get Kincaid or a WR on a LB... It's a tweak to get keep the chains moving and to keep teams off balance and fits in perfectly with what they already do. They just don't do it enough. Too many 1st and 2nd down runs against stacked boxes when you can take the mismatch for an easy 7-10 yard gain... It disallows teams to load up and guess right. Like I said... It's a tweak...Not a philosophy change...

Edited 55 minutes ago by KOKBILLS

[Marcus Aurelius]

4 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

Enjoy Fatherhood.  The hardest, most amazing and rewarding part of life.   

 

On the passing identity, its hard to say.  I think they are still in the process of deciding who their best options are at outside receiver.    The personnel groupings from the last game were all over the place.   Part of me wonders if they are trying to see what they have from Samuel there.   I would say at current their identity is strictly matchup based. 

 

Going forward the Bills passing identity will be determined by two things, how the opposing defenses play them, and how creative they get with Dalton Kincaid.  Kincaid is the only pass catcher they have that can win consistently against man coverage.    Once they get into the playoffs, he shouldn't come off the field for anything but a breather.   They also need to figure out how to get James Cook involved in the passing game.  He is too good to be coming off the field. 

 

Long story short, the Bills are short to intermediate passing game currently missing the ability to hit plays in the deep third-Gos, Posts, and Corners because they lack both ability and speed in their receiving core.   Shakir is a good slot receiver, but he is a zone beater.  When he has to try and beat man he struggles.  He is also being doubled more this year.   Samuel's play speed when space isnt manufactured doesnt look great to me.   Coleman you may as well forget getting seperation. 

 

Teams that continue to play a Cover 2 Shell against them are almost doing them a kindness.  

 

One more thing ...

If what you're saying is true (and I believe that it is) ... 

Then the failure of the Bills running game in the Pats game is primarily on the OC, a failure to self-scout tendencies  ...

[thenorthremembers]

 

2 minutes ago, Marcus Aurelius said:

 

One more thing ...

If what you're saying is true (and I believe that it is) ... 

Then the failure of the Bills running game in the Pats game is primarily on the OC, a failure to self-scout tendencies  ...

 

I dont think its a lack of self-scouting.  With as obsessive as McDermott is I highly doubt they don't know those tendencies explicitly.   I think its more rooted in a belief of "This is what we do really well.  We believe if we put our best against your best we will win."    Its the same reason when something starts to work in a game, you'll see Brady do it two or three times in a row.   Thurman Thomas talks a lot about the Bills only have 5 run plays.   But they were successful, so they did it over and over.   When you watch Brady's offense its relies heavily on execution over scheme.  Its not complex in the least.