3rd round draft pick snap counts

[HurlyBurly51]

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

I suppose you think that WRs are more important than OLers, too.

Not at all, it all starts in the trenches, which is why Solomon needs to sit😆

 

Edited yesterday at 03:59 AM by HurlyBurly51

[gordong]

Right now the only draft pick that is not helping that hurts is max.  we are getting a lot more help from Walker and Hawes and even Strong then anyone could have hoped for. Landon Jackson seem to be in the doghouse and the chance he even gets activated before the end of the year is shrinking by the day once the two suspended guys come back I give it almost a 0% chance he get any snaps this year. 

[ganesh]

On 10/1/2025 at 4:36 PM, todd said:

Good lord, people! You're complaining about a 3rd round pick after 4 games into the season! Buffalo tries to develop players, and there are examples of players taking a while to get going in the Bills system and then hitting their stride. 4 GAMES INTO THE SEASON FOR A 3RD ROUND ROOKIE. Do you have any concept regarding how silly this whole cluster of a conversation sounds? It's like people search for something to complain about with a 4-0 team because they aren't happy unless they are b-wording about something. 

Completely Agree.  Bernard never saw any playing time in his 1st season and the light bulb turned on in season 2.

[Paup 1995MVP]

17 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

We have faced Lamar, Fields, Tua, and Rattler.  Minus Tua, who only had 10 yards, the rest of those QB's are running QB's and ran for 170 yards.  If you take out the QB yardage we'd be right there with KC, Philly, or the Vikings.  That's a very general statement but my guess is after playing King Henry and a slew of running QB's things should even out a little.  I don't think we built this defense to stuff the run but I'd guess we will settle in to the middle of the pack instead of 2nd to last.

That's a fair assessment.  But what do you think we built the defense to do then?  Other than the Jets, teams have been able to move the ball on us.  

 

Yes we are 4-0, but we have not played the league's better teams, other than the Ravens.  (Even though they are 1-3, they still have a lot of talent-I do think their defense is overrated though.)  I will be real interested to see how we match up against the Patriots on defense.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

17 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

So an athlete that can play in the NFL is a low standard, WTF are you thinking…, out of the how many thousand college guys, the very few who make it to the NFL, and then stick for years is a low standard?  Be better than that UC, its like you’re not even trying…,

He isn't playing...isn't that kind of the point of the whole thread

And yes the standard for a 3rd round pick is higher than the later rounds

It is great Walker looks good and that Hawes is making an impact.  There is no doubt Beane has a track record of finding great value in the later rounds.

But the track record of mid round misses is worthy of commentary 

Not dressing for four games does not mean he is destined to be Basham 2.0. But it is still disappointing 

 

[BigDingus]

Great post. But I've seen many Bills fans act like it's crazy to expect 1st, 2nd & 3rd round picks to be seeing consistent playing time their rookie year.

 

Everyone acts like only Bills rookies need a few years. Expecting them to start, see consistent play time, or even just have any impact at all in their first year is totally CRAZY. 

 

Our roster is so stacked & has so few holes that obviously it's crazy to expect early round rookies to do much of anything! 

 

1st round picks are projects that might start, but shouldn't be expected to do much for a few years! 2nd & 3rd round picks are backups or rotational guys unless someone gets hurt.

 

It's only the 4th - 7th round guys (probably selected by scouts & not hand-picked by Beane/McDermott) that somehow can crack the starting lineup or make an impact!

 

Of course, there's an exception to everything, but it still feels like if this team drafted better in the early rounds they'd have already gotten over the hump. I don't care what anyone says, but Worthy has been a very good weapon for KC & was the exact kind of speedy target the Bills could still use.

 

Coleman could keep getting better, but he's not the home run, big play threat you have to game plan for like Worthy is.

[TH3]

On 9/30/2025 at 9:01 PM, Ethan in Cleveland said:

This is a corollary to the Landon Jackson thread so feel free to merge.  

I looked at the top 19 picks in the 3rd round. I don't have much of a life but I do want to get in the workshop tonight so I just did the top half.  That is 19 picks as there were 38 picks.  Bills drafted Landon Jackson with the 8th pick in the 3rd round so just about in the middle of this sample.  

See the table below. These numbers represent snap count percentage for week 4.  Data source link below.  I have no idea how accurate it is. 

https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=ARI&year=2025&type=snap-counts

Only two other players have been inactive all four games and only one other has been a healthy scratch - a 49ers LB.  The Titans WR has been injured but not on IR.  

Two had season ending injuries in camp and are on IR.

Two had no snaps in week 4 but had snaps in 2 of 4 games. All the others that played in week 4 also played in weeks 1-3.

  

 

 

It is data and you can judge it however you want.  There is a mix of good and bad teams.  There is a mix of positions. 

My take is that it is reasonable to expect a 3rd round pick that is not injured to be dressing on game day and playing in some capacity.  

 

And just when I thought you were out of New and exciting ways to hate your team

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

He isn't playing...isn't that kind of the point of the whole thread

And yes the standard for a 3rd round pick is higher than the later rounds

It is great Walker looks good and that Hawes is making an impact.  There is no doubt Beane has a track record of finding great value in the later rounds.

But the track record of mid round misses is worthy of commentary 

Not dressing for four games does not mean he is destined to be Basham 2.0. But it is still disappointing 

 

 

If we are commenting on third round picks, why stop with our guy? Let’s look a little deeper for a more full and accurate picture. It looks like he was picked at a bit of a turning point, by a team with a SB calibre roster. I copied and pasted this from another Landon Jackson is disappointing thread:

 

  “5 hours ago,  Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Why'd you cut it off at 72?  Seems like a strange number... almost as though picks 75, 76, 80, 82, 88, 89, 91, 98, and 99 also haven't played in the 3rd round.”

 

I think this helps to present a more fair and complete picture. 

 

[folz]

On 9/30/2025 at 9:01 PM, Ethan in Cleveland said:

This is a corollary to the Landon Jackson thread so feel free to merge.  

I looked at the top 19 picks in the 3rd round. I don't have much of a life but I do want to get in the workshop tonight so I just did the top half.  That is 19 picks as there were 38 picks.  Bills drafted Landon Jackson with the 8th pick in the 3rd round so just about in the middle of this sample.  

See the table below. These numbers represent snap count percentage for week 4.  Data source link below.  I have no idea how accurate it is. 

https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=ARI&year=2025&type=snap-counts

Only two other players have been inactive all four games and only one other has been a healthy scratch - a 49ers LB.  The Titans WR has been injured but not on IR.  

Two had season ending injuries in camp and are on IR.

Two had no snaps in week 4 but had snaps in 2 of 4 games. All the others that played in week 4 also played in weeks 1-3.

  

 

 

It is data and you can judge it however you want.  There is a mix of good and bad teams.  There is a mix of positions. 

My take is that it is reasonable to expect a 3rd round pick that is not injured to be dressing on game day and playing in some capacity.  

 

 

Just to note. I tallied up all of the 2025 3rd round draftees snap counts on their side of the ball (offense or defense). 2025 third round picks are currently averaging 21.89% snap counts overall. If you subtract the 4 players on IR, then the 3rd rounders are averaging 24.46% snaps on offense or defense. There are 11 of 38 players (29%) garnering more than 23% snap counts. There are only five 2025 third round players getting more than 50% of their team's snaps on their side of the ball. There are 12 players of 38 (31.6%---including the 4 IR guys) that do not have a snap yet.

 

Approximately only 17% of third round draft picks become starters.

 

 

On 9/30/2025 at 11:16 PM, Brand J said:

I don’t like the argument that we’re such an “extremely deep playoff team” that cracking the lineup is an arduous task for a high pick. It’s not like the players ahead of those high picks are all pro talents. If the rookies could play, or more accurately, if the coaches believed Landon or anyone else in his rookie class was ready to play, that player would be on the field - either in a rotation, or ahead of some average to below average NFL players.

 

On 10/1/2025 at 6:37 AM, NeverOutNick said:

Ok let’s play this game:

 

2019 - Cody Ford (2nd)

2020 - AJ epenesa (2nd) and Zach Moss (3rd)

2021 - Carlos Basham (2nd)

2022 - Elam was a first rounder my B

2023 - Dorian Williams (3rd)

2024 - Bishop (2nd), Carter (3rd)

2025 - Sanders (2nd), Jackson (3rd)

 

Thats A LOT of misses early on the defensive side of the ball.

 

If we are speaking of Jackson, the players ahead of him are Joey Bosa, Groot, Aj Epenesa, and Javon Solomon.

 

To expect any rookie 3rd-rounder to be ahead of the first three is just silly. So, the question becomes, why isn't he getting snaps ahead of Solomon, right? Is it really that odd that a 3rd-round rookie (in the first 4 games of his career) might not play over a 5th-round 2nd-year guy, who has been in the system for a year-and-a-half already? And with the injuries to Oliver and Milano, he may also have been caught in a numbers game on defense (as far as being inactive). Solomon has played 64% of the special teams snaps this season. Maybe with the injuries, you can only suit one of the two...and even if Jackson were ahead of Solomon as a DE, as a rookie, it probably wasn't significant enough to lose what Solomon brings on STs---especially against teams like the Saints, Dolphins, and Jets. It's a team sport, sometimes you have to look at the whole picture, not just the individual parts.

 

And I see we have already written off Solomon then too, along with guys like Carter, Bishop, Williams, and now Jackson and Sanders, etc. 

 

When I was a kid, outside of the very top picks in the draft, we understood that it took most players 1-3 years to put it together and be successful in the league. Yet, now we are writing off all of our rookie and 2nd year players already? Just like we did with Bernard and others. Why do you think there is an adage that you can't evaluate draft classes until 3-years out? Because some guys take time to develop. They won't all become starters, and some may end up not be very good in the long run, but you have to give them some time to show what they got and to get enough opportunity to do so before writing them off, imo.

 

[Brand J]

39 minutes ago, folz said:

 

Just to note. I tallied up all of the 2025 3rd round draftees snap counts on their side of the ball (offense or defense). 2025 third round picks are currently averaging 21.89% snap counts overall. If you subtract the 4 players on IR, then the 3rd rounders are averaging 24.46% snaps on offense or defense. There are 11 of 38 players (29%) garnering more than 23% snap counts. There are only five 2025 third round players getting more than 50% of their team's snaps on their side of the ball. There are 12 players of 38 (31.6%---including the 4 IR guys) that do not have a snap yet.

 

Approximately only 17% of third round draft picks become starters.

 

 

 

 

If we are speaking of Jackson, the players ahead of him are Joey Bosa, Groot, Aj Epenesa, and Javon Solomon.

 

To expect any rookie 3rd-rounder to be ahead of the first three is just silly. So, the question becomes, why isn't he getting snaps ahead of Solomon, right? Is it really that odd that a 3rd-round rookie (in the first 4 games of his career) might not play over a 5th-round 2nd-year guy, who has been in the system for a year-and-a-half already? And with the injuries to Oliver and Milano, he may also have been caught in a numbers game on defense (as far as being inactive). Solomon has played 64% of the special teams snaps this season. Maybe with the injuries, you can only suit one of the two...and even if Jackson were ahead of Solomon as a DE, as a rookie, it probably wasn't significant enough to lose what Solomon brings on STs---especially against teams like the Saints, Dolphins, and Jets. It's a team sport, sometimes you have to look at the whole picture, not just the individual parts.

 

And I see we have already written off Solomon then too, along with guys like Carter, Bishop, Williams, and now Jackson and Sanders, etc. 

 

When I was a kid, outside of the very top picks in the draft, we understood that it took most players 1-3 years to put it together and be successful in the league. Yet, now we are writing off all of our rookie and 2nd year players already? Just like we did with Bernard and others. Why do you think there is an adage that you can't evaluate draft classes until 3-years out? Because some guys take time to develop. They won't all become starters, and some may end up not be very good in the long run, but you have to give them some time to show what they got and to get enough opportunity to do so before writing them off, imo.

 

Can’t speak for any others, but I haven’t written off any of these players, well maybe except for Dwayne Carter. As to my point, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that a top 100 pick comes in and outperforms a guy who has proven to be a JAG in the league, a backup. Just because the Bills are a perennial SB contender, it doesn’t mean that a day 2 (or day 1) pick has a Herculean task just to get reps. No team is that deep. If the player was a day 1 or day 2 pick, suffice to say the players that he’ll be battling aren’t all pros or even pro bowlers. The concept of development is not lost on me, I was one of the few who never wrote “bust” next to Bishop and Bernard’s names. Don’t use “perennial SB contender” as a reason. Just admit to what it is - the player isn’t ready to contribute in the coaches’ eyes, no matter how marginal the players are ahead of him.

[folz]

52 minutes ago, Brand J said:

Can’t speak for any others, but I haven’t written off any of these players, well maybe except for Dwayne Carter. As to my point, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that a top 100 pick comes in and outperforms a guy who has proven to be a JAG in the league, a backup. Just because the Bills are a perennial SB contender, it doesn’t mean that a day 2 (or day 1) pick has a Herculean task just to get reps. No team is that deep. If the player was a day 1 or day 2 pick, suffice to say the players that he’ll be battling aren’t all pros or even pro bowlers. The concept of development is not lost on me, I was one of the few who never wrote “bust” next to Bishop and Bernard’s names. Don’t use “perennial SB contender” as a reason. Just admit to what it is - the player isn’t ready to contribute in the coaches’ eyes, no matter how marginal the players are ahead of him.

 

Yeah, sorry, I was kind of responding to two posts at once. I didn't mean to intimate that you had given up on all of those players. And I agree with your last sentence. Obviously the coaches do not find Jackson ready yet (for whatever reasons). But, that is a far cry from some (not you) labeling him as a miss or bust or disappointment, or whatever already (just 4 games into his career).