NOW is Bobby Babich's seat hot?

[Mango]

It's like beating a dead horse. But the Bills inability to get off the field on 3rd down is destroying them.

 

The Bills are 25th in the league in 3rd down conversions. When you factor in that they also lead the league in ToP you see how phenomenally bad that is.

 

If they could just get off the field with any consistency we'd be looking at 4 blow out wins

 

The offense is really protecting the defense with these long drives.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

It's like beating a dead horse. But the Bills inability to get off the field on 3rd down is destroying them.

 

The Bills are 25th in the league in 3rd down conversions. When you factor in that they also lead the league in ToP you see how phenomenally bad that is.

 

If they could just get off the field with any consistency we'd be looking at 4 blow out wins

 

The offense is really protecting the defense with these long drives.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct

 

And that is despite the Jets being 0-11 on 3rd down. Which really demonstrates how bad the other three games were. 29th in the league last year, 25th this year through four games after never being worse than 19th in the seven seasons of this regime that preceded Babich as DC and being top 10 in five of those seven years. 

 

I don't like the design on third down either when I look at the all22. I'm not sure what the Bills general approach to play 3rd down defense is. I slightly think they are trying to do to much and be so "unpredictable" that they are sacrificing fundamentals for some designs that are either ill conceived or being really poorly executed (or maybe both). If I was in the defensive meeting rooms with Babich I'd be saying you have to simplify your 3rd down call sheet. Get back to some basic fundamentals, be strong at the sticks and then trigger and tackle. 

 

 

[Mister Defense]

18 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

It's not the coach...

 

It's the young secondary, specifically the safeties.  Less coverage disguise + soft defense = more break, especially on third down. 

 

That said, they can and will get better over time. The goal is to win for now and to peak at the end of the season.

 

?

Hmm, well, not sure which team's young  secondary you have been watching, but this is not a young, inexperienced starting secondary, except for Cole Bishop, in his second year. These are the facts:

 

Tre White:  9th year in the NFL

 

Taylor Rapp: 7th year

 

Christan Benford:  4th year

 

Taron Johnson:  8th year

 

So, the only player of the five starters one can say is "inexperienced" is obviously Bishop, right?  And I think Bishop is already playing better than Hamlin was last year.

 

So, does the fact that the 'fact' you use to get to your position is naccurate make you reconsider your point?

 

Think about this: what if the Bills' leaders are doing this, saying things, thinking things, that are simply untrue.  What would be the result in general, and in this case, as they attempt to fix a poor defense?  I think they would make awful decisions if they did things like this, consistently. 

 

They would be ignoring the actual problems, and instead focusing on things that are not relevant.  And spinning their wheels, or worse, regressing.

 

If you don't know what your actual problems are how can you fix them?

 

 

 

[Mister Defense]

15 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Pats offense is overvalued and the saints offense is undervalued based on a huge schedule disparity imo…no one has really cared enough about the saints to notice though 😂

Saints schedule:

ARI

SF

SEA

BUF

that’s a bit of a meatgrinder lol three teams in the top 10 in points allowed and one hovering around average.  pats have seen no one in the top 18 all year.  Yardage allowed wouldn’t even change much…Buffalo would improve and Arizona would fall.

 

I’m not really seeing this huge chasm between the pats and saints offense tbh.  I think adjusting for opponents saints have the worse qb obviously  but they’ve got a significantly better running game..  really wouldn’t be surprised if this was an easier game than last week 

 

I agree. It will at least like an easier lift for the defense against the Patriots.  At home, at night, and after a poor defensive performance, I expect the Bills to do what they almost always do in games like this--look a lot better on defense, and likely on offense too.

 

Like I have said on here, the defense often looks almost the opposite of the previous week's defense in games after very poor performances and it seems clear that someone else is working VERY closely with the defense that weel, taking over, to get the ship upright. 

 

The Saints are better than people realize, or getting there.  And Rattler could be a long term answer at QB.  But I am more concerned with a QB like Mayes right now, as he has the big arm, legs, andthe  dynamic playmaking ability of a future star QB.

 

But on Sunday night, hoping for some defensive domination. Kind of expecting it maybe?  I am not sure.  But that won't mean the ship has been fixed.

 

 

 

 

[Mister Defense]

On 9/30/2025 at 12:40 PM, FireChans said:

To the OP, I think his seat is hot in the way that McD make take over playcalling.

 

not sure he’s in danger of being fired.

 

McD was taking over play calling from Leslie Frazier when the defense was playing much better.

 

I agree that is a more likely scenario, possibly. Depends on circumstances how it is exactly done. I think the longer it takes maybe the more likely he is just demoted or dismissed. As it would be very obvious very soon to all, at that point in the season anyway, that Babich was done with his DC duties.

 

Good point in the last sentence, had not considered that. Yes, and that is an understatement even--Frazier's defenses were MUCH more prepared and he was a dramatically better play caller than Babich.  But McDermott took over as he did not like some of it--so imagine what he is thinking now!? And Beane too.

 

 

[ganesh]

We had a chance to get Vic Fangio at the beginning of last year when he was let go by the Dolphins.  He took the Eagles to a SB victory.  He could have done the same with the Bills.  Babich is really underwhelming.

[ClemsonBills]

16 hours ago, Low Positive said:

But it made no sense. The only similarity between McDermott's defenses in Carolina and Frazier's defense is that they were both 4-3. McDermott had an attacking 4-3 in Carolina. He comes from the Jim Johnson/Eagles coaching tree, along with Spags. Frazier is a Tampa/Cover 2 zone guy who comes out of the Tony Dungy coaching tree. The "soft zone" that everyone here hates actually went out the door with Frazier. But that narrative was formed, and people think every defensive failure is due to it.

But we watch corners play off the ball 10 yards constantly. Just because he came from that, doesn't mean that's what he still uses. I also agree that its a weak narrative, but shoot we all watch the games and can see how they are trying to scheme/attack. If he doesn't have the personnel to run what he wants, maybe there is a greater issue?

 

If you need great personnel and very smart defensive players, how good is your defensive scheme? If you lose a key player in the playoffs and never force a punt, how good are you as a defensive coach? I am sick of McDermott getting a free pass, figure it TF out. Or fire another DC and think that'll fix it.

[Mango]

On 9/30/2025 at 12:57 PM, 26TrapDraw said:

As much as I hate how this defense is playing, I will concede that we are not at full strength with some very critical pieces missing. I think the Coaching staff is aware how lucky we’ve been that our opponents can’t handle our Offense. It’s a long season. Give me all of the pieces ( Milano Oliver get Hoecht back and work Hairston in slow for Tre) if we don’t improve after that then it’s time for a coach to lose his job.

it’s fairly obvious if we fail this year that it was an abysmal defense.

 

hmm it’s almost as if that’s been the culprit before…

 

This is way over played. Tre is having a very good year by CB2 standards. Outside of getting beat by Waddle in man coverage once or twice, Tre has been a consistantly good outside corner. 

No data behind this, but the eye test seems to have me thinking we are also willing to man up more often this year. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Schwartz

 

I'll die on the hill arguing that I want this guy back again.

 

Hell, I wanted him over Rex Ryan as HC.

 

If we could trade a draft pick for him, I would.

 

"But we don't have the same system and personnel that he utilizes."  I don't care.  He would still have them playing better, right off the bat, and they would likely be top 7-8 in a year.

 

 

 

 

[Charles Romes]

I wouldn’t mind a brand new DC experiment with expected growing pains in the first year of a rebuild.
 

What is mind-numbing is that they are doing this at the apex of a Super Bowl window with a generational QB at the apex of his prime, with Spags standing in the way of the title. 

[ganesh]

6 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

This is way over played. Tre is having a very good year by CB2 standards. Outside of getting beat by Waddle in man coverage once or twice, Tre has been a consistantly good outside corner. 

No data behind this, but the eye test seems to have me thinking we are also willing to man up more often this year. 

Question is where is Tre tackling...Is it before the 1st down marker or after the 1st down marker.

[Avisan]

30 minutes ago, ganesh said:

Question is where is Tre tackling...Is it before the 1st down marker or after the 1st down marker.

Before, largely.

 

Did you watch the games the last couple of weeks?

[CincyBillsFan]

My late father had a simple but IMO true belief that defensive success on 1st & 2nd down was driven by the Jimmy's & Joe's while 3rd down was when defensive coaching became the most important factor.  

[Mango]

2 hours ago, ganesh said:

Question is where is Tre tackling...Is it before the 1st down marker or after the 1st down marker.

 

The only glaring game I have seen with Tre has been the Saints game. But even that wasn't a tackle after the catch issue. That was helping in run support. 

Not a get out of jail free card for him, but nearly all defenders vs the Saints blew it in run support so a difficult game to identify who blew it the most play to play. 

I don't want to rely on Tre/Strong as our DB pairing anytime soon. But I do like him in his current role so far.

[Mister Defense]

2 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Schwartz

 

I'll die on the hill arguing that I want this guy back again.

 

Hell, I wanted him over Rex Ryan as HC.

 

If we could trade a draft pick for him, I would.

 

"But we don't have the same system and personnel that he utilizes."  I don't care.  He would still have them playing better, right off the bat, and they would likely be top 7-8 in a year.

 

 

 

Yes, of course, on  Schwartz, a no brainer here, compared to what we have. And in general, a high level defensive mind and coordinator. And having a great year now, maybe his best, creating the best defense in the NFL on a team without a high level offense.

 

The Cleveland defense after 4 weeks:

 

#1 in total defense

 

#1 in run defense

 

#4 in pass defense

 

I like him  a lot as a DC, but sometimes it seems, and when here, that the type of defense he coaches breaks down more than the defenses of some of the other top DC's like Fagio's and others.  Maybe they take too many chances at times, when not needed, and so then be exploited by good OC's ??

 

While I am fairly convinced, at least for now, that McD will soon take over for Babich, and turn things around dramatically, like Brady did, I think McDermott is too concerned with the big picture as head coach, with all aspects of his team, to be the defensive coordinator long term. So, will not want to continue to do that in the 2026 season if he is the guy for the rest of this year.

 

So, let's hope for a Cleveland collapse!, the firing of their head coach, and Schwartz wanting out, or getting tossed out with the rest, as he is likely a very good choice for the Bills again.

 

I know this will get some negative feedback but for a while have thought the combination of his defensive ideas and coaching philosophy and McD's would make for a superb long term defense for the Bills.

 

 

[HappyDays]

This play is a good example of our play calling issues on 3rd down. It technically counts as a 3rd down stop but only because Olave dropped the ball:

 

This is exactly the kind of call that I hate. We bring an exotic blitz on 3rd down which I'm happy with. But Benford has no chance on this play. He's in off coverage and is back pedaling even before the ball is snapped. He's still back pedaling as Rattler gets into his throwing motion. Just way too easy against a route runner like Olave. I mean what is even the intent of this play design? The off coverage look invites Rattler to throw to his #1 target, so why even bother sending extra pressure when you know he'll get the ball out quick? If it were Spags he'd send the same pressure but Olave would be bracketed inside and out, which would give Taron the extra couple seconds he needs to get to the QB.

 

This is just an utterly garbage play call that we got lucky on, and we've seen it on tape over and over again since last year.

[cgang]

I’ve broken 2 tv’s so far this season with the disgrace d giving up third and longs, shorts, and everything in between.  But I’m not ready to put babich/mcd on the hot seat just yet.  We don’t have our full contingent in.  But it is really difficult to watch this bend and break d.  I don’t think this weekend will be any better.  Let’s come back to this thread in week 7.  

[billsfan714]

The part that irks me is 3rd down was a huge problem last year, was an emphasis in the off season and camp and yet here we are, again.   Also you cant be considered a good defense and be 31st against the run, that isn't going to win any championships.

Edited 16 hours ago by billsfan714

[Low Positive]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

This play is a good example of our play calling issues on 3rd down. It technically counts as a 3rd down stop but only because Olave dropped the ball:

 

This is exactly the kind of call that I hate. We bring an exotic blitz on 3rd down which I'm happy with. But Benford has no chance on this play. He's in off coverage and is back pedaling even before the ball is snapped. He's still back pedaling as Rattler gets into his throwing motion. Just way too easy against a route runner like Olave. I mean what is even the intent of this play design? The off coverage look invites Rattler to throw to his #1 target, so why even bother sending extra pressure when you know he'll get the ball out quick? If it were Spags he'd send the same pressure but Olave would be bracketed inside and out, which would give Taron the extra couple seconds he needs to get to the QB.

 

This is just an utterly garbage play call that we got lucky on, and we've seen it on tape over and over again since last year.

The problem with that play is that it's a chicken 💩 half-a$$ed call. Only 4 end up rushing, and Bosa of all people drops out into coverage to cover no one. And if a DE was spying Rattler, that's a stupid plan. If you're going to bother to show a blitz, actually blitz and bring more than 4. If Spags brings 7 guys to the LoS at the snap, at LEAST 5 are coming. I'd like to think that they are not blitzing out of these looks to get some tendencies on film that they can break later, but I have no way of knowing that. 

 

Interesting bit of history that I don't think most people know. Spags and McDermott come from the same Jim Johnson/Eagles coaching tree and therefore have very similar philosophies. So when people insist that McDermott is a Tampa 2 guy, that is just flat out wrong. That was Leslie Frazier. 

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/bills/2017/01/12/breaking-down-bills-hc-sean-mcdermotts-defensive-philosophy/79775018007/

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

The problem with that play is that it's a chicken 💩 half-a$$ed call. Only 4 end up rushing

 

There actually are 5 rushing, it's hard to see because 1 of them is getting swallowed up in the middle. I have no problem with the blitz call. It worked as intended getting Taron as a free rusher. My issue is, to use Babich's own words, the pass rush is not married to the coverage. Leaving Benford in off coverage on an island against an elite route runner is not how you get Rattler to hold the ball. I mean that's a college level read and anticipation throw that any backup QB is going to hit. Rapp ends up sprinting backwards from the line to cover nobody while Benford is being hung out to dry. This is a 3rd and long that should have been converted and it is 100% on the play call.