Evaulation (of this team) after a quarter of season gone

[Big Turk]

Just now, T.E. said:

It's insane, when you think about it. The offense barely has any rhythm, they can't scheme receivers open, and they still get their points. Sky is the limit if they can figure out how to clean things up.

 

14 of the last 15 games Allen has started (and played more than a snap) they reached 30 points or more. The one they didn't they scored 24 and ended up with the ball at the Patriots 25 yard line while running the clock out and probably could have.

[KentuckyBillsFan]

At this point I'm over what we do in the regular season. Maybe that's irrational but we are as super bowl or bust as a franchise can get IMO.

 

I see a team that has the same fatal flaws it has had for the last 5 years. I sincerely hope I'm wrong but I fear the defense is going to get lit up again in the playoffs and no matter what 17 does we're going to lose in the divisional/AFCG like we do every year. That is just the ceiling with Beane/McDermott IMO.

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

For a team that can't rush the passer - why do we have the fewest passing yards allowed in the league?  

 

Because yardage stats are often misleading, and don't tell the whole story.

 

The teams we have played so far are mostly run-first teams (Baltimore, New York, New Orleans), and/or have some of the worst starting QBs in the entire league (New York, New Orleans).  Plus, they are absolutely gashing us on the run... so there hasn't been much reason to attack us that way.

 

 

1 hour ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

• 9 sacks against 103 pass attempts is an 8% sack rate - the league average QB was sacked on 6.87% of their dropbacks in 2024. 
• 194 air yards completed across 4 games, and 64 total completed passes so... the average completed pass has traveled 3 yards.  The lowest in the league last year was 4.1 yards by Tua.  
• They have allowed 243 YAC, which is an average of 3.8 YAC/completion.  The lowest QB in the league averaged 4 YAC/completion in 2024.  
• Buffalo has the #1 NY/A in the league.  This is not affected by volume.  (Passing yards - Sack yards)/(Pass attempts+Sacks)

From an eye test perspective, i agree the tackling has been poor.  I'd imagine some gap assignments have been missed by the defensive line, especially in the baltimore game.  They seem to struggle to bottle up athletic QBs, which has always been an issue (and shouldn't since we rarely play man and our guys have eyes on QB quite often). 

 

Again... most teams are going to attack where a team is the weakest.

When a team can't tackle, they are going to test you with the rushing attack and short passes that rely on YAC.  

 

Plus (as I said previously), we have played against Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa and Spencer Rattler -- not exactly guys known for aggressively attacking defenses downfield.  Lamar Jackson spent 85% of the game handing off and playing with a big lead.

 

 

1 hour ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

But to say they aren't getting any pressure is just not true.  Considering how insanely close to the LOS the average completion is, pressure is just not really going to come on those.  

 

When the opposing QB drops back to pass, he's got a clean pocket and plenty of time (over 2 seconds) to throw.  Or the D-Line over-pursues, gives up contain and allows them to take off running.  And the secondary isn't doing a good job of defending passes once it's been released.  From what I've seen, teams haven't had much trouble throwing when they need to do it, regardless of what the stats say.

 

For example... It won't count in the stat book, but the Saints should have taken the lead yesterday with 9 minutes left.  On 3rd-13, we got zero pass rush and Brandin Cooks beat his man.  Rattler just made a poor pass.  That kind of play counts as a positive stop for our pass defense, when it was really just a bad job by the quarterback.

 

My worry is that our schedule doesn't really give the defense much of a real test, and stats are going to be skewed most of the season.  Our next three opponents are Drake Maye, Michael Penix and Bryce Young.  Very good chance our passing rankings will be pretty good by the end of the year.  And then we head into the postseason to face Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson.

 

[Westside]

7 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

Cook and Allen look great,  still missing the third piece which would be an elite receiver and defence has been trash as usual. I dot like our rookie DT walker and think he has the tools tp be an elite defensive player.  In all 4 games,  outside of the Jets win the Bills could have lost 3 of 4 

I agree. Our WR group is below average. Shakir is almost invisible during games. This”everybody gets to eat” offensive game plan is terrible for a high school team, absolutely ridiculous for a nfl team. Our rookies can’t seem to get on the field, our DL is a joke. Has anyone checked Daquan Jones for a pulse? A corpse falling over would put up a better run defense than that guy. Absolutely dreadful!!!

Thank GOD the afc is a joke this year. That might be the biggest thing going for us now.

[GASabresIUFan]

4 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

What skews it even further is we have given up 178 rushing yards to QBs through 4 games and one of those games is 10 yards to Tua. The other 3 games have been 70 to Lamar, and 49 each to Fields and Rattler. That 44.5 yards a game to QBs that pads those rush numbers. The total of 657 rush yards equals out to just over 165 years a game given up.

 

That leaves about 122 yards per game given up to RBs. That's still high but again, as you pointed out week 1 skews it a bit with Henry exploding for 169. They actually contained Breece Hall well and don't do awful against Achane.

And didn’t do poorly against Kamara.  It’s the mobile QBs that have hurt us as you mentioned.  

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFan said:

And didn’t do poorly against Kamara.  It’s the mobile QBs that have hurt us as you mentioned.  

Yeah. Maye is going to be an issue this week with his legs. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, SectionC3 said:

Did the TV broadcast indicate whether McD handled playcalling in the second half today?  I sit on the opposite side of the stadium, and I don’t take binoculars in.  BUT, from my distant perch, I saw him routinely stationed about 20 yards on the defensive side of the LOS with what appeared to be a play sheet when NO had the ball.  My impression was that he was running the D. 

See above. 

 

Interesting but no, not covered on broadcast. 

[Paup 1995MVP]

8 hours ago, skibum said:

Big picture, the Bills are taking care of business by whatever means necessary. They have many ways to move the chains and score. The D makes big stops at the most important times. They dominate the turnover battle and have above-average special teams play all around. 

 

Everything else is just noise. These guys are winners.

That’s a real short sighted approach.  
 

The defense has dominated one game out of 4.  
 

The Saints went into Seattle and were curb stomped by the Seahawks 44-13.  We were 2 inches from losing the lead in the 4th qtr after Rattler’s pass was a smidge low to Cooks who pretty much waltzed between both our safety’s who had no idea what they were supposed to be doing.  That is ***** defense.  And for whatever reason-be it talent, scheme, motivation we play ***** defense a lot.  
 

Our offense is good because we have a ridiculously great generational QB, a great RB, and an excellent run blocking O line.  However, we run an offense that isn’t using the talents of our QB or our receivers to the best of their ability.  Throwing only 2 targets to Kincaid is inexcusable.  As is throwing no targets to Coleman in the second half Is inexcusable.  
 

We have Palmer Shakir Kincaid and Coleman.  All are good players and are being underutilized.  
 

Yes we are 4-0.  And it’s a close team oriented group of guys.  But the coaching and playcalling on the whole is average at best.  And eventually mediocrity will get you beat. 

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

 

Our offense is good because we have a ridiculously great generational QB, a great RB, and an excellent run blocking O line.  However, we run an offense that isn’t using the talents of our QB or our receivers to the best of their ability.  Throwing only 2 targets to Kincaid is inexcusable.  As is throwing no targets to Coleman in the second half Is inexcusable.  
 

 

Aren't these things situational.  I mean if there is an opportunity or requirement to throw the football 30-35 times, I am sure the Bills will throw the ball.  Right now they have a winning formula that the team has brought in and executing it.  Why is that an issue.  

 

And also, we were not successful with the long ball yesterday...they tried it...and simply were no where near making those plays (including the INT).

[billsbackto81]

I'd like to think we have yet to hit our stride.

 

To be 4-0 at this point averaging over 30 a game while the D has been absolutely underwhelming can be seen as good thing. 

 

We have key players out, real difference makers that can immediately contribute once they get on the field.

 

We're not going undefeated and will probably lose to a team we weren't expected to lose to. That's OK, because this team usually starts playing their best towards seasons end going into the postseason anyway.

 

If McD and Babich can turn this group into a competent D this may be the year. If not, that seat should get really hot for them because prime JA17 is getting older and father time waits for no one.

[NeverOutNick]

16 hours ago, ganesh said:

Hard to believe we are done with 4 of the 17 games.  Here are my takes at the end of the 1st quarter of the NFL Season. 

 

Josh Allen continues where he left off:

 

Josh is in form and trending towards another MVP caliber season (and hopefully a SB Winning season).  He was super-human against Baltimore in the 4th quarter throwing for 250+ yards to mount a fierce comeback that resulted eventually in a 41-40 victory. Josh is playing percentage football that protects the football and at the same time ready to do his Josh Allen Magic.  

 

Rise of James Cook 

 

Two weeks into Training Camp, it was not clear what was going to be the situation with James Cook.  There were completely opposite views with most of them insisting that Cook was a two-down back and also couldn't block.  Four games into the season, Cook has proven most of them wrong showing that he can be a workhourse back grinding yards in chunks. His speed has been outstanding and that complimented with his vision has elevated his level of play that would be suprising even to James Cook.  Now the question is - can he take this all the way through the 18-week grind into the playoffs. 

 

The Slithery Shakir

 

Shakir has been amazing during this 4-game stretch. Its statistics will not show what he has done;  but tapes don't lie.  He continues to make clutch plays as evidenced by the key 3rd down conversion against the Saints.  The two TDs that he scored are amazing highlight reels...In one, he just moved so fast that there was not a single defender anywhere close to him.  On the second one, he clearly showed that he can break tackles while maintaining his balance and rumble into the end zone.  

 

Free Agent Contributions

 

Josh Palmer signed a $35M contract to be the speed receiver.  He has made a few critical catches to move the sticks, but nothing much beyond that.  Hoecht and Ogenjobie are on the suspended list until week six. Bosa has shown some flashes to get to the QB. The Bills focuse don re-signing their own players and hence not much expectation from the Free Agent signings.

 

Re-signing your own players

 

The Bills signed Shakir, Groot, Bernard, Benford  and Cook to large contracts ($50M+)  and the results have been mixed.  Cook has been amazing and the driver of this vehicle. He has been everything and more than advertised.   Shakir continues to be Shakir and Bernard too though to a lesser extent.  

 

Rookie Contributions

Walker and Hawes have been great making critical and clutch plays.  Sanders and Strong have been on the field  but have been just ok.  Hairston is still working through his rehab and possibly still out 3-4 weeks.  Jackson and Hancock have been healthy scratches.   Need more strong performance from this group if we have to move the needle against Baltimore or the Chiefs. 

 

The Same Old Same Old

 

The Bills invested heavily on Defense in the offseason.  They signed Pass Rusher Joey Bosa and Hoecht along with Ogunjobie to play Defensive Tackle.  They spent the first four picks in the NFL draft on defense,  drafting Hairston (CB), Sanders (DT). Jackson (DE), Walker (DT),  Hancock (S) and  Strong (CB).  They are also re-signed Benford, Bernard and Groot to massive contract extensions.   However, the results in the 1st quarter of the season remains the same..Last against the Run and inability to get off the field on 3rd and long has made  Bills fan crazy and frustrated. 

 

The Bills continue to serve a ultra-conservative offense even though it is led by the league MVP.  However, Josh Allen has learned to play within that system and keep the chains moving and the points coming.  

 

Milano and Spencer Brown continue to miss games as they did the last few years.  While it might give opportunity to other backup players. not having them on the field hurts this team more than anything else. 

 

Bills in Q2 of the Season - What will they do?

 

What do the Bills need to fix to improve their play? 

* Pass Rush -  This is non-existent now..they need to get better in this area if they want to beat the best QBs in the league

* DT & LB -  Change is coming in both these positions  to stop the run.  The Bills need to find a way to stop the run bleed. 

*. More involvement of Coleman and Palmer.  Both these guys need a lot of touches and Josh needs to get the ball to them.

 

Result -  4-0

 

The most important aspect of the season...the Bills are yet to lose a football game.  They have scored 30+ points in each of those four games.  They are leading the division by 2 games and are 2-0 within the division with a critical and important game coming this Sunday against the up and coming Patriots on SNF.   They are two games up on the 2-2 Chiefs awaiting a week 7 showdown in Orchard Park.  They are a game ahead of the surging chargers and the  3 1/2 games ahead of the fading Ravens team. While there is a ton of things to fix, the team has stuck together during the tough times that has taught them on how to win the close games.  At the end, the only thing matters is the final scoreboard.

 

 

Go Bills !!!

Great write up! Depicts how great Josh is despite the flaws in roster building and coaching. This team is a family which is awesome but just imagine how great it could be with parents (Beane and McD) who actually knew how to take care of their prodigy of a son. Still think we finish 13-4 or better but last week was a game against the worst team in the league with 10 days off. Despite New Orleans putting together its best effort it was still Spencer Rattler running wild on us, a guy who wouldn’t be most teams back up. We should’ve been sitting starters at half time. McD, after 8 years and countless draft picks and free agents poured into his side of the ball still can’t get the other team off the field on third and longs. Our Bills will still be amazing this year and make a deep playoff run but in a year with such incompetence around the league and having the best player in the NFL and the easiest schedule there should be no question (outside of a Josh injury) we should finish 15-2 and have the #1 seed on our way to winning our first Super Bowl championship. Here’s hoping Josh can carry us. Go Bills

 

PS I was dead wrong on Cook, as long as he’s not asked to make a game winning catch he’s amazing. And Shakir is my favorite Bill outside of Josh. Love everything about him

Edited September 30 by NeverOutNick

[Sierra Foothills]

20 hours ago, chris heff said:

The defense is infuriating, I hope the injured guys and suspended guys get back and help. That being said, many thought the Packers had the best defense in the league, they did not look great last night. My point is defenses seem to be struggling league wide.

 

Yes, the Packers gave up 40 points to the Cowboys... after losing to the Browns last week.

 

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The defense is just bad. Bad fundamentals, bad situationally, inconsistent pass rush. The one thing is HAS done well is splash plays. But that's a tough way to live week to week. It simply has to be better. I'd be willing to consider a coordinator change but I doubt it happens. 

 

Then again as you know GB, a coordinator change is not unprecedented.... Dorsey was fired in his 2nd season as OC... but after 10 games and in the midst of a 2-4 stretch.

 

Still, it's not beyond the realm of possibility.

 

Some of the lack of cohesion and fundamental shortcomings are hard to understand.

 

17 hours ago, R.O. said:

Truthfully, McDermott needs to take over defensive play-calling to show Babich how it is done in his defence.

 

Also not unprecedented... and it's interesting to read @SectionC3's comments upthread.

 

17 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

I think he'd need to take over at Weakside linebacker if he wanted to really fix the mistakes.  

 

I could see McDermott running onto the field in full uniform and giving Rapp, the hook.

 

15 hours ago, KentuckyBillsFan said:

At this point I'm over what we do in the regular season. Maybe that's irrational but we are as super bowl or bust as a franchise can get IMO.

 

I see a team that has the same fatal flaws it has had for the last 5 years. I sincerely hope I'm wrong but I fear the defense is going to get lit up again in the playoffs and no matter what 17 does we're going to lose in the divisional/AFCG like we do every year. That is just the ceiling with Beane/McDermott IMO.

 

You know, I've slowly come to understand and appreciate opinions like yours... that nothing has any meaning until the playoffs begin.

 

The question for you and others who take your position is:

 

Are you going to actually enjoy the regular season or not?

 

Because it gets very tiresome reading over and over that all of these victories are meaningless.

 

Edited September 30 by Sierra Foothills

[GASabresIUFan]

11 hours ago, SoTier said:

Don't confuse the endless negative narratives with facts.   

I keep making that mistake.  I'm sincerely sorry!

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Then again as you know GB, a coordinator change is not unprecedented.... Dorsey was fired 10 games into his 2nd season as OC... but after 10 games and in the midst of a 2-4 stretch.

 

Still, it's not beyond the realm of possibility.

 

Some of the lack of cohesion and fundamental shortcomings are hard to understand.

 

 

Yea but I doubt they do it while we are 4-0. 

[Bills aPHILLYate]

I just continue to hate the defensive scheme. 

I don't know how feasible it would be but I wish we could find a way to get Jim Schwartz back and hand him the keys. 

 

[Bills aPHILLYate]

5 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

The question for you and others who take your position is:

 

Are you going to actually enjoy the regular season or not?

 

Because it gets very tiresome reading over and over that all of these victories are meaningless.

 

 

I think the "meaningless" can be interpreted a different way. Maybe "less concerning" is a better term.

 

Of course the season victories play a role but when you're a legit superbowl contender over years; the season becomes just a long evaluation process. 

 

We can hang with anybody whether home or away in the playoffs. 

 

The glaring issue is this scheme.

 

We've found various scapegoats for every iteration of it: Frazier, Edmunds, undersized LBs, corners not grasping concepts, safeties, lack of pass rush, can't stop the run, 3rd and long, bend but don't break, depth, McDermott should call it, etc...

 

It's like someone throwing you a birthday party but you're uneasy because you know they're gonna smash your face in the cake.

 

I say all that to say it's a very valid position for a fan of this team to take at this juncture. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, T.E. said:

It's insane, when you think about it. The offense barely has any rhythm, they can't scheme receivers open, and they still get their points. Sky is the limit if they can figure out how to clean things up.

 

I'm not sure I agree that the offense doesn't have any rhythm. It definitely lost its way in the second quarter on Sunday when Brady decided to return us to trying to be a downfield passing offense (which we are not very good at) but when they run the ball with Cook and can get Shakir and the tight ends involved I think they have plenty of rhythm. What they lack is explosiveness. 

6 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Are you going to actually enjoy the regular season or not?

 

Because it gets very tiresome reading over and over that all of these victories are meaningless.

 

 

If you are not my answer is do something else. If you can only enjoy sports if you win Championships then they are not for you. Because it doesn't matter how many championships any team wins, in an average life as a sports fan they will lose them much more than they win them. I know the answer will be "just give me one" but what are you going to do, call any other Bills season that doesn't end in a Superbowl meaningless? It's just self-preservation as a fan. Preparing oneself for the worst is a human defence mechanism. 

[SectionC3]

15 hours ago, Westside said:

I agree. Our WR group is below average. Shakir is almost invisible during games. This”everybody gets to eat” offensive game plan is terrible for a high school team, absolutely ridiculous for a nfl team. Our rookies can’t seem to get on the field, our DL is a joke. Has anyone checked Daquan Jones for a pulse? A corpse falling over would put up a better run defense than that guy. Absolutely dreadful!!!

Thank GOD the afc is a joke this year. That might be the biggest thing going for us now.

Now I know why he breaks so many tackles.  

[SCBills]

1) Weak schedule so while 4-0 is great, I’m not sure I take a ton from that aside from a great comeback against a healthy Ravens team and then beating teams we absolutely should beat.

 

2) JA is the best QB in the league and continues to prove it.  His floor game is the ceiling for 90% of QB’s in the NFL. 
 

3) Cook proved me wrong.  I didn’t want to pay a RB.  I didn’t think he was in the Henry, Saquon, JT realm of running back.. He is.  James Cook is elite. 
 

4) Free Agency anyone, anyone?   Beane talked a whole lot of defiance this offseason about WR and hyping Josh Palmer.  Let’s hope he grows in this Offense because ehhhh ok.  
 

5) Kincaid & Hawes could become the best TE duo in the league in coming years. 
 

6) Deone Walker absolute HIT. Potential high RD1 pick before the back injury and he clearly looks back to being that guy now.  Sky is the limit for him. 
 

7) Team is coasting on an early easy schedule with the core.  FA additions and Draft Class not giving us much.  Hairston injury, Sanders is meh to ok so far which as a rookie DT isn’t awful, Jackson can’t even get a jersey.  Hoecht/Ogunjobi out til Week 8 and Josh Palmer looks like the same guy with the same usage in LA but for more money.  Need to get more from the additions than just Walker & Hawes. 

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, SCBills said:

1) Weak schedule so while 4-0 is great, I’m not sure I take a ton from that aside from a great comeback against a healthy Ravens team and then beating teams we absolutely should beat.

 

2) JA is the best QB in the league and continues to prove it.  His floor game is the ceiling for 90% of QB’s in the NFL. 
 

3) Cook proved me wrong.  I didn’t want to pay a RB.  I didn’t think he was in the Henry, Saquon, JT realm of running back.. He is.  James Cook is elite. 
 

4) Free Agency anyone, anyone?   Beane talked a whole lot of defiance this offseason about WR and hyping Josh Palmer.  Let’s hope he grows in this Offense because ehhhh ok.  
 

5) Kincaid & Hawes could become the best TE duo in the league in coming years. 
 

6) Deone Walker absolute HIT. Potential high RD1 pick before the back injury and he clearly looks back to being that guy now.  Sky is the limit for him. 
 

7) Team is coasting on an early easy schedule with the core.  FA additions and Draft Class not giving us much.  Hairston injury, Sanders is meh to ok so far which as a rookie DT isn’t awful, Jackson can’t even get a jersey.  Hoecht/Ogunjobi out til Week 8 and Josh Palmer looks like the same guy with the same usage in LA but for more money.  Need to get more from the additions than just Walker & Hawes. 

 

Think this is a fair summary. I think people are a little quick to forget Knox at tight end and he is still playing an important role for them this year (and is blocking just as well as Hawes by the way) but I take the point that his continued presence as a Buffalo Bill beyond 2025 is a big question mark given there is no way at all he plays on his 2026 cap number.