Game week thread - Pats at Bills SNF

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

6 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

A lot of talk about Maye. Warner broke down some film of him if you want to have a look and haven't really seen the kid play this year.
 

 

always “interesting” to see Kurt warner’s breakdowns. I will say he does make some insightful points about how these receivers ought to be running their routes and what the right or better reads are. 
 

That said, I have always found his analyses to be overly critical of QBs. Eg, Maye completes a 30-yard strike to Diggs and Warner points out that the better read was a receiver on the other side of the field. Fair point. But it’s easy to second guess everything from a film breakdown.

[BillsFan130]

6 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Playing complimentary football demands big improvements in the Bills 3rd down defense.  With one of the best offenses in he NFL the Bills can not continue to allow 3rd and long conversions that steal possessions from their O.

 

The other problem with allowing 3rd down conversions is that it steals momentum.  Take last week, after the Bills go up 7 - 0 the Saints put together a long drive converting multiple 3rd and longs to tie the game up. Even worse after the Bills take the 2nd half KO and drive for a TD that puts them up 21 - 10 and on the verge of a blowout the D again allows a long TD drive to make it a game.

 

 

Yep exactly. If bills makes a stop on that opening possession on 3rd and long, it could have been 14-0 bills in a blink of an eye and the whole game script changes for the Saints 

[Beck Water]

14 hours ago, SCBills said:

This feels like the first real game since Baltimore Week 1 … and while I’m sure they’ll never admit it; I bet a majority of the team feels that way too. 
 

I think we see a much more focused and on point team Sunday night. 
 

If not.. then maybe this is who we are.  An explosive offense that goes through in-game lulls with a defense that just cannot get off the field.  
 

If it’s the latter, we have a lot of work to do and it might be another year where Josh Allen has to be superhuman in the postseason before he inevitably gets let’s down by his supporting cast and coaches against KC. 
 

Because I don’t know that reinforcements matter if that just who we are .. it then becomes more about scheme and philosophy because this team should be able to beat NE handedly even if we’re missing some guys. 
 

 

One game doesn’t make a season, but that would cement a concerning trend five games in.

 

Let’s hope they do the first thing I mentioned and simply show NE that there’s levels to this.  

 

I'd just like to point out that if we actually had a defense that couldn't get off the field, the Saints wouldn't have punted in the 1Q, punted in the 2nd Q, been intercepted, and been held to a field goal in the 2Q, and punted again to lead off the 3Q (all while our offense was trying to decode this modern advance called "zone coverage"), ending the game with two TOD.

Bills allowed conversion of 5 out of 13 (38%) 3rd D and 0 out of 2 4 D.

 

I'm not saying that the defense is perfect or even good.  But the above "can't get off the field" is a simplistic exaggeration.

 

I too hope we see a more focused, on point team this Sunday.  I know these guys are professionals, but when you're playing a team that just got its ass handed to them the previous week with a 44-13 loss, part of the player's brains have to be going "yeah, yeah" during game plan install during the week.

 

On the other hand, when you're playing a team that was just on the winning side of a 42-13 drubbing, it's easier to give it your full and serious attention and the danger is that (like the fans here) part of your brain says "doomed!".  Hopefully the team is 1000x more resilient than the fans are.
 

3 hours ago, boyst said:

I was going off of memory, I'm curious if you did as well. 

 

Either way that Pat's fan knows nothing about his team, because you know flutie was only there under Belichick in the scrub years

 

Dude, I explicitly posted about why I knew that fun fact.  It's in the last para of my post.  716 caught it, so I know I didn't send it in invisible electrons.

[Low Positive]

6 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Yep exactly. If bills makes a stop on that opening possession on 3rd and long, it could have been 14-0 bills in a blink of an eye and the whole game script changes for the Saints 

The Rattler scramble on 3-7 on their first drive put the Saints in the game. The Josh Allen scramble on 3-5 in the 4th took them out of it. 

[Beck Water]

25 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Playing complimentary football demands big improvements in the Bills 3rd down defense.  With one of the best offenses in he NFL the Bills can not continue to allow 3rd and long conversions that steal possessions from their O.

 

The other problem with allowing 3rd down conversions is that it steals momentum.  Take last week, after the Bills go up 7 - 0 the Saints put together a long drive converting multiple 3rd and longs to tie the game up. Even worse after the Bills take the 2nd half KO and drive for a TD that puts them up 21 - 10 and on the verge of a blowout the D again allows a long TD drive to make it a game.

 

Dude.  This is a little much.  You're just outright ignoring what actually happened in favor of padding your points.
The Bills did not take the 2nd half kickoff.  The Saints did.  

You don't remember that?  Why?  Because the Bills D forced a 3 and out and they punted.  That's why.

Factually, the Bills allowed 5 of 13 1st down conversions by the Saints.  That's 38%, and while it's not fantastic, it's not craptastic either.

 

 

 

Edited 12 hours ago by Beck Water

[50yrpatsfan]

8 hours ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

I mean, Eric Bienemy was theoretically a great OC too, but we all know who the real brain behind the operation was. 
 

Let’s see McDaniels prove he can do it without Belichick first, before we anoint him. 

Reid calls the plays so he's the OC, not sure what Bienemy did. Shanahan the same thing. Belichick focused on defense, McDaniels ran the offense and called the plays. Even after Brady, he made a washed Cam Newton and a rookie Mac Jones look pretty good. He's failed twice as a HC so he's not good at that, but he's as good as they get at OC, top tier, very underrated, and the MVP of the Patriots so far this year.

 

Maye looks pretty good but the OL-TE's-RB's are average, the WR's are below average, yet the offense moved the ball very well the last 3 weeks. The Steelers game 2 weeks ago was impressive, and we now expect that they'll do the same at Buffalo.   

[YattaOkasan]

40 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

When you force a turnover you get off the field.

But how can you possibly say that's more of an important stat than looking at being 25th on first downs allowed, and 29th on 3rd downs when it comes to getting off the field? Lol. 
 

They were a big play defence which is important. But that Doesn't mean they consistently stopped anyone...25th in first downs allowed and 29th on 3rd downs literally shows they were one of the worst teams in the nfl in stopping teams

 

 

Getting a turnover is more important than getting a third down stop cause of field position.  Thats why EPA is so helpful.  It will account for that huge swing in points expected.  Their ability to get turnovers at a greater than average clip was more important than inability to get off the field at a lower than average clip.  That is likely cause they got much better field position. 

 

Getting into EPA a bit, given the entire historical data set of all plays in the same down/distance/field position ever you can calculate the expected points the drive will get.  That analysis is telling you being number 1 in TO% and number 28 in 3rd % results in 12th best expected points added for a defense.  The how can that be is clearly field positioning.  

[Beck Water]

26 minutes ago, 50yrpatsfan said:

Reid calls the plays so he's the OC, not sure what Bienemy did. Shanahan the same thing. Belichick focused on defense, McDaniels ran the offense and called the plays.

 

I think this might be a bit revisionist.  Belichick famously had his finger in all 3 aspects of the game and limited the authority of his assistants.  

 

26 minutes ago, 50yrpatsfan said:

Even after Brady, he made a washed Cam Newton and a rookie Mac Jones look pretty good. He's failed twice as a HC so he's not good at that, but he's as good as they get at OC, top tier, very underrated, and the MVP of the Patriots so far this year.

 

Please - be consistent.  If you want to give Reid credit for acting as the OC of the Chiefs, that's fair.  But then you have to give McDaniels some blame when he's HC but acting as the OC of the Broncos and really mixing it in with running their offense; you have to give McDaniels full blame when he's OC of the Rams under Steve Spagnuolo who left the offense strictly to him; you have to give McDaniels some blame when he's HC but acting as the OC of the Raiders.  It's not just "he isn't a good HC", it's that he's not consistent as a good OC.

 

26 minutes ago, 50yrpatsfan said:

Maye looks pretty good but the OL-TE's-RB's are average, the WR's are below average, yet the offense moved the ball very well the last 3 weeks. The Steelers game 2 weeks ago was impressive, and we now expect that they'll do the same at Buffalo.   

 

OOOOHhhhhh below average WR, don't tell Stefon Diggs.   NE has moved the ball pretty well the last 3 weeks.

 

The Steelers game 2 weeks ago was a loss, in which Maye was sacked 5 times, threw a pick, and lost a fumble to go along with 3 fumbles lost by RBs.  If they do the same at Buffalo, our defense will be delighted.

Edited 12 hours ago by Beck Water

[PoundingDog]

Did Allen say anything about Diggs? Reporters may intentionally do selective quotes.

 

 

 

[BillsFan130]

3 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Getting a turnover is more important than getting a third down stop cause of field position.  Thats why EPA is so helpful.  It will account for that huge swing in points expected.  Their ability to get turnovers at a greater than average clip was more important than inability to get off the field at a lower than average clip.  That is likely cause they got much better field position. 

 

Getting into EPA a bit, given the entire historical data set of all plays in the same down/distance/field position ever you can calculate the expected points the drive will get.  That analysis is telling you being number 1 in TO% and number 28 in 3rd % results in 12th best expected points added for a defense.  The how can that be is clearly field positioning.  

I get EPA is the new hot metric, I personally think it's dumb for the most part though.

 

I remember that dolphins game last year Where the bills could not stop Miamis run game and basically offence overall- And They got graded a high  EPA in that game.. 

 

Which makes no sense to me as anyone who watched that game knew they couldn't stop a nose bleed

[Beck Water]

21 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Getting a turnover is more important than getting a third down stop cause of field position.  Thats why EPA is so helpful.  It will account for that huge swing in points expected.  Their ability to get turnovers at a greater than average clip was more important than inability to get off the field at a lower than average clip.  That is likely cause they got much better field position. 

 

Getting into EPA a bit, given the entire historical data set of all plays in the same down/distance/field position ever you can calculate the expected points the drive will get.  That analysis is telling you being number 1 in TO% and number 28 in 3rd % results in 12th best expected points added for a defense.  The how can that be is clearly field positioning.  

 

It's not just field position.  If the Bills got a 3rd down stop on the drive ended by the Bishop interception, they likely would have come away with 3 points from a FG.  The turnover didn't give the Bills great field position, but it robbed the Saints of points where a 3rd down conversion wouldn't have.

I don't think you're going to get anywhere with that BillsFan130 guy though.  Just admit that the Bills D sucks, turnovers don't matter, and EPA is stupid.

Edited 11 hours ago by Beck Water

[Rockinon]

Remember when everyone was very concerned about the Jets when they basically dominated the weekend before against the Steelers only to have Rogers take over the game late? Or how everyone was nervous before the Miami game. Now everyone is so sure NE is way better than those teams. Who really thinks running up the score on the Panthers is a clear indication that they've suddenly become a powerhouse?

 

NE has a problem with coughing up the ball and Maye can't put the offense on his back and carry them the way Josh can. Their pass defense is weak and their rush defense is suspect. They haven't shown that they can successfully run the ball and their coach is a meathead.

 

Really....

 

Bills by 20

[Beck Water]

11 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

Remember when everyone was very concerned about the Jets when they basically dominated the weekend before against the Steelers only to have Rogers take over the game late? Or how everyone was nervous before the Miami game. Now everyone is so sure NE is way better than those teams. Who really thinks running up the score on the Panthers is a clear indication that they've suddenly become a powerhouse?

 

NE has a problem with coughing up the ball and Maye can't put the offense on his back and carry them the way Josh can. Their pass defense is weak and their rush defense is suspect. They haven't shown that they can successfully run the ball and their coach is a meathead.

 

Really....

 

Bills by 20

 

Vrabel may be a meathead, but he's a damned good coach.

 

That said, the BBFS is strong with some of the posts here.

[Success]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

Vrabel may be a meathead, but he's a damned good coach.

 

That said, the BBFS is strong with some of the posts here.

 

I think it's TBD if Vrabel is really a good coach.

 

He had some of the best coordinators in the league during the Titans' best runs, and Tannehill was playing well above his usual.  His last few seasons w/ TN were downright bad, and TN fans lamented his conservative ground & pound strategy.

 

Even though the Pats had a huge win against probably the worst team in the league, their season so far has been characterized by some pretty undisciplined play, including untimely turnovers and penalties.

 

I think he's good for culture - for games, it remains to be seen w/ NE, and if can turn that team into a contender.

[JGMcD2]

36 minutes ago, 50yrpatsfan said:

Reid calls the plays so he's the OC, not sure what Bienemy did. Shanahan the same thing. Belichick focused on defense, McDaniels ran the offense and called the plays. Even after Brady, he made a washed Cam Newton and a rookie Mac Jones look pretty good. He's failed twice as a HC so he's not good at that, but he's as good as they get at OC, top tier, very underrated, and the MVP of the Patriots so far this year.

 

Maye looks pretty good but the OL-TE's-RB's are average, the WR's are below average, yet the offense moved the ball very well the last 3 weeks. The Steelers game 2 weeks ago was impressive, and we now expect that they'll do the same at Buffalo.   

The Steelers defense that ranks bottom-5 in yards allowed per game (382.5) and bottom-third in points allowed (24.5)? That same unit let the Justin Fields-led Jets, the Sam Darnold-led Seahawks, and the Carson Wentz-led Vikings move the ball at will.

 

Meanwhile, Buffalo ranks 9th in yards allowed per game (290) - and that’s even with the 400+ they gave up in Week 1 against Baltimore. Since then, no opponent has topped 300 yards. The Bills just held those same Fields-led Jets to 150 total yards and 10 points, a week after New York hung 300 and 32.

 

I’m not saying it’ll be a blowout, but the idea that New England walks into Orchard Park on primetime and rolls up offense just because they did it against Pittsburgh feels… questionable.

Edited 11 hours ago by JGMcD2

[Beck Water]

49 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

always “interesting” to see Kurt warner’s breakdowns. I will say he does make some insightful points about how these receivers ought to be running their routes and what the right or better reads are. 
 

That said, I have always found his analyses to be overly critical of QBs. Eg, Maye completes a 30-yard strike to Diggs and Warner points out that the better read was a receiver on the other side of the field. Fair point. But it’s easy to second guess everything from a film breakdown.

 

Well, there's two things. 

First, Warner QB'd 3 Superbowls for 2 different teams, by virtue of his mind, not his superior athletic skills.  So naturally that's the position he feels most comfortable critiquing.  It also factors in that his Rams coaches believed in hard coaching.  The harder you coach someone, the more you value them and believe they can thrive.

 

Second, as alluded to above, the offensive system Warner QB'd was built on knowing exactly the best place to go with the ball pre-snap and immediately post snap.  Very cerebral.  He's not "second guessing", he's making the read as he would have made it, based on reading the defense before and after the snap from film, and based on the offenses he captained where there was a best decision on every play and that was the right decision.

 

The only QB he's sort of backed away from doing that with a bit is Josh.  He seems to acknowledge that Josh's skill set is so different, that the same analysis doesn't always apply.  On the other hand, there are times when he does point out that Josh has options he's not taking and the offense would function more smoothly if he did (as when the Bills were struggling in the RZ a couple years back) and I think that's totes fair.

[buffblue]

Not good on Strong. Other injuries looking more promising per McD on WGR

 

[Beck Water]

15 minutes ago, Success said:

 

I think it's TBD if Vrabel is really a good coach.

 

He had some of the best coordinators in the league during the Titans' best runs, and Tannehill was playing well above his usual.  His last few seasons w/ TN were downright bad, and TN fans lamented his conservative ground & pound strategy.

 

Even though the Pats had a huge win against probably the worst team in the league, their season so far has been characterized by some pretty undisciplined play, including untimely turnovers and penalties.

 

I think he's good for culture - for games, it remains to be seen w/ NE, and if can turn that team into a contender.

 

Fair point on that last.  On the earliest, choosing good coordinators and letting them cook is part of the skill of being a good head coach.  And I believe Vrabel left his chosen OCs to do their thing, meaning Tim Smith was responsible for the dismal 2023 ground and pound strategy.  And in truth, losing Tannehill for 5 games of the 2022 season and 9 games of 2023 rather forced his hand.  Maybe you think he should have forced an air attack with Will Levis as QB for 9 games, but maybe that would have been foolish.

[eball]

Everyone but the Dorians has a chance to play Sunday.  That’s good news.

 

[Beck Water]

20 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

The same Steelers defense that ranks bottom-5 in yards allowed per game (382.5) and bottom-third in points allowed (24.5)? They let the Justin Fields-led Jets, the Sam Darnold-led Seahawks, and the Carson Wentz-led Vikings move the ball at will.

 

The Steelers D is truly looking more curtain than steel so far.

 

I don't think you should overlook that he's calling an offensive performance that featured 3 turnovers by the RBs, 2 turnovers by the QB, and 5 sacks "impressive".  The Bills D would be happy if they come in and do that here.

 

11 minutes ago, eball said:

Everyone but the Dorians has a chance to play Sunday.  That’s good news.

 

 

Did McD say anything about what happened with either Dorian?  (not that I'd expect him to, but a Girl can Hope

Edited 11 hours ago by Beck Water