NFL play calling tendencies through 3 weeks

[rajinka]

2 hours ago, AKC said:

It is indeed difficult to lean on play action when you are leading the league in shotgun snaps.

What am I missing? we're top 5 in lowest shotgun percentage

[Einstein]

17 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Surprised we're bottom 5 in Play Action,  with how effective we've been running the rock

 

We almost NEVER run play action. It’s infuriating. Half of my game day thread posts are me begging Brady to run play—,5&9’.

[Augie]

It looks like we need to be prepared for a lot on no huddle against the Saints. Get ready! They are the 2nd highest at 29.4% no huddle, so it will be a different pace. (Washington is a whopping 60%!) 

 

 

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Edited September 27 by Augie

[Buffalo716]

16 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

We almost NEVER run play action. It’s infuriating. Half of my game day thread posts are me begging Brady to run play—,5&9’.

 

For the past years we've put plenty of great plays on tape early 

 

Now we're actually getting Josh into a rhythm of three step and five step passing game... Reading the field and executing 

 

That's going to be tougher to defend in January when we have a rhythm passing game.. then when they open up the Play action by another 5% or 8% it's going to pay dividends 

 

We have other things the offense has to work on, during these early regular season games then the play action game where Josh is already very very good

 

We don't need to show our full hand... Our offense is humming we really don't need to show any of our best play action plays yet

 

From 9% to 15% when the games are on the line is probably what you can expect

 

Edited September 27 by Buffalo716

[AKC]

2 hours ago, rajinka said:

What am I missing? we're top 5 in lowest shotgun percentage

Statmuse has us in shotgun 33+ times a game this season, most in the league according to their data.

 

We do also lead the league in plays/game so it is possible for both things to be true.

Edited September 27 by AKC

[Inigo Montoya]

 

The top 5 scoring offenses in the NFL this year (points per game average) so far are;

 

Baltimore;  37

Indy;           34.3

Detroit;       34.3

Buffalo;      34

Seattle;      27.8  (almost a full TD per game behind the Bills)

 

I don't know what the Bills are doing but it's working.  If Brady is doing this while playing things close to the vest, even better.

[balln]

Just now, Inigo Montoya said:

 

The top 5 scoring offenses in the NFL this year (points per game average) so far are;

 

Baltimore;  37

Indy;           34.3

Detroit;       34.3

Buffalo;      34

Seattle;      27.8  (almost a full TD per game behind the Bills)

 

I don't know what the Bills are doing but it's working.  If Brady is doing this while playing things close to the vest, even better.

The top 4 in common? Powerhouse run games. Welcome to the new (old) but new nfl 

[hondo in seattle]

I used to think Brady called the best game he could every week to optimize our chances of winning.  And that makes total sense.

I think coaches like Reid try to win today's game but, at the same time, are looking to show certain tendencies, hide certain plays, and so on.  In other words, put things on tape to get future opponents looking one way so he can move another.

 

I'm starting to believe that maybe Brady has become more like Reid.  

 

4 hours ago, chris heff said:

Who’s Al?

 

Albert Incognito, Richie's annoying but oft-quoted brother. 

 

Edited September 27 by hondo in seattle

[Thrivefourfive]

Dallas must have a helluva running game to threaten pass action so often.. always playing catchup.. 🙂‍↔️

I’m all for believing Brady is outwitting the NfL Andy Reid style, but we couldn’t get a yard or two last season at the end, and we haven’t been able to do it this season. So what’s up with that?

[LABILLBACKER]

On 9/26/2025 at 6:22 PM, JerseyBills said:

Surprised we're bottom 5 in Play Action,  with how effective we've been running the rock

That 9% play action number has to increase. 

[Richard Noggin]

13 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

We are very effective in play action. But Josh doesn't like it. 

 

For it to meet the official definition of play action, the QB has to line up under center, turn around as he drops back and fakes to the back. That means he has to take his eyes away from downfield. Josh doesn't like doing that on pass plays.

 

This definition of play-action certainly changes MY perception of the recorded stats. 

 

Sure, there is traditional play-action from under center, and then there is play-action from shotgun and pistol. But the thing I'm most interested in is the effort to mirror run blocking on the line and with the QB-to-RB mesh point. If the Bills are running a higher % than recorded due to Allen not being under center, that's at least somewhat assuaging. 

 

Does anyone have numbers on the snaps that are missed by traditional PA accounting? 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

On 9/26/2025 at 10:22 PM, PoundingDog said:

It depends on the defense as well. If the safeties refuse to come down to the box, then just keep running the ball. Those who do All-22 said Miami refuse to load up the box even when Cook was running successfully. Instead, they opted using 4 DTs at some snaps.

 

One complaints from me is the lack of successful runs behind Cook. Davis looked regressed this year. If we are able to run successfully with Cook and Davis, I think opposing DC may think twice about play for pass.

That will be an interesting trend to see against the Bills. We have no one that can get deep. 

It would be nice if we could effectively throw a screen pass. 

One way to combat this is probably to throw our of 13 personnel more. Bills have three TEs that are size matchup nightmares against safeties and linebackers. 

[y2zipper]

On 9/26/2025 at 7:22 PM, PoundingDog said:

It depends on the defense as well. If the safeties refuse to come down to the box, then just keep running the ball. Those who do All-22 said Miami refuse to load up the box even when Cook was running successfully. Instead, they opted using 4 DTs at some snaps.

 

One complaints from me is the lack of successful runs behind Cook. Davis looked regressed this year. If we are able to run successfully with Cook and Davis, I think opposing DC may think twice about play for pass.

 

On re-watch, i saw what everyone else saw with Miami's defense. They were playing 2 deep and even cover 3 a ton. Buffalo is going to content to run and take what's there against those defenses, and will continue to score at a high rate doing that. 

 

In the running back room, Cook is excellent and Johnson is very good. Davis isnt as versatile, and i think that hurts him, but there's really no meaningful sample size for Davis.