Do The Bills Have A Passing Game Problem?

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

They are taking what the defense gives them and avoiding turnovers.

 

Add to that as good as Allen is, he has struggled with accuracy of deep balls.  He's under thrown, over thrown and everything in between in the past.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

what do they define as deep?  Many of these sites consider over 20 yards a deep pass or the throw is 12 yards and the player runs another  25 for a 40 yard gain.  Allen is very good at the 20 maybe 30 yards, but when he just heaves it 40+ yards, the last time I remember him completing one was the around 96 yards to Gabe Davis against Steelers on opening drive.  I'm sure there's been some others since, but would be surprised to hear there were many.

[oldmanfan]

5 hours ago, 26TrapDraw said:

You gonna be at the patriots game. You are on the must meet list

Nope.  Bucs game.  Got to get my younger daughter and my older’s ones husband to see a game at the Rich before it closes.  Go Bills!

[ganesh]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

 

interview) but Id have given up Hawes or Hancock and any of the 6th round picks to go up a few spots for Tory Horton. I think he has potential to be an impact player. 

 

 

Yep. And unless you are playing Dallas completing deep balls looks darn hard.

 

Hawes us already an impact player for this offense. 
 

 

[26TrapDraw]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Nope.  Bucs game.  Got to get my younger daughter and my older’s ones husband to see a game at the Rich before it closes.  Go Bills!

That’s what I’m doing my bride has not been so here we are going up on the 5th.

[SoTier]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

my thesis (then and now) was the turnover issue was not as important as folks made it out

 

overall im just saying people can look at the same thing and come to different conclusions and that's ok

 

Your thesis doesn't stand up to scrutiny.   I Googled: does winning the turnover battle correlate to winning more games in the NFL?

 

AI response:

Quote

Yes, winning the turnover battle is highly correlated with winning games in the NFL. Studies and analyses consistently show that teams with a positive turnover differential win the vast majority of their games, with one source indicating a nearly 78% win rate when a team wins the turnover battle. The correlation is strong and remains remarkably static across different NFL eras, though it's important to note that turning those extra possessions into points is crucial for maximizing the benefit of the turnover advantage. 

 

Key Statistics

High Win Percentage: NFL teams that win the turnover battle win about 78% of the time. 

Compounding Effect: Winning the turnover battle by multiple possessions further increases the win probability, with a +2 differential leading to wins around 82%     of games and a +3 leading to wins around 91% of games. 

Predictive Power: The turnover margin is a significant and consistent predictor of game outcomes. 

 

Why It Matters

Possession Advantage:

  Each turnover gives one team an extra possession, while the other team loses one. 

Field Position:

  Turnovers can dramatically alter field position, often leading to a significant swing that helps the team gaining possession. 

Momentum and Opportunity:

  Forcing turnovers can create scoring opportunities, demoralize the opponent, and significantly shift the game's momentum. 

 

6 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

They are taking what the defense gives them and avoiding turnovers.

 

Add to that as good as Allen is, he has struggled with accuracy of deep balls.  He's under thrown, over thrown and everything in between in the past.

 

All QBs suffer a drop off in accuracy when they throw long (ie, how long the ball is in the air).   It's one of the reasons that the great passing QBs of the 1960s and 1970s had such low completion percentages compared to today's QBs.   Darryl Lamonica wasn't called "the Mad Bomber" because he threw 20 yards downfield and a WR added 40 YAC.  It's more like Lamonica would heave it 50 yards through the air and the WR added 10 YAC.

 

  

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Your thesis doesn't stand up to scrutiny.   I Googled: does winning the turnover battle correlate to winning more games in the NFL?

 

AI response:

 

  

yet more proof AI is only as useful as the person inputting the parameters

 

yes, winning the turnover battle correlates w winning games. so do many, many other statistics. do us all a favor and look at past posts on the topic, i've been talking about this since 2019

 

then look in amazement at 3 out of the last 4 SB winning QBs being top5 in INTs that season

[oldmanfan]

2 hours ago, 26TrapDraw said:

That’s what I’m doing my bride has not been so here we are going up on the 5th.

Enjoy!

[SoTier]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

yet more proof AI is only as useful as the person inputting the parameters

 

yes, winning the turnover battle correlates w winning games. so do many, many other statistics. do us all a favor and look at past posts on the topic, i've been talking about this since 2019

 

then look in amazement at 3 out of the last 4 SB winning QBs being top5 in INTs that season

 

The discussion wasn't about SB winning QBs, so don't try to derail the discussion because your opinion isn't supported by the facts confirmed by AI.   The discussion was about Dorsey as OC, and how the Bills' TOs have dropped since Brady replaced him.   

 

 

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

Just now, SoTier said:

 

The discussion wasn't about SB winning QBs, so don't try to derail the discussion because your opinion isn't supported by the facts confirmed by AI.   The discussion was about Dorsey as OC, and how the Bills' TOs have dropped since Brady replaced him.   

 

 

 

 

 

No

My argument was Allen's INT issue being overstated

 

Then you for some reason asked AI if turnover margin (differential) correlate w winning

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, ganesh said:

Hawes us already an impact player for this offense. 

 

Sure. And I never doubted he was a solid pick. I think Hancock can be too. It isn't a knock on those guys.

 

It is a knock on Beane's priorities. Which are third tight end and backup DB over developmental receiver with explosive traits. He just always seems to find something he values more. 

[Matt_In_NH]

5 hours ago, SoTier said:

Your thesis doesn't stand up to scrutiny.   I Googled: does winning the turnover battle correlate to winning more games in the NFL?

Correlation vs causation.    Change correlation to cause and see what the answer is.  

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Correlation vs causation.    Change correlation to cause and see what the answer is.  

 

Since I was arguing that turnovers are important, I wanted correlation not causation.    Did Henry's fumble in the Bills games "cause" the Bills to win?  No, but it was a significant factor in the Bills winning, just as Henry's fumble last night contributed to the Lions' win.

[Matt_In_NH]

6 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Since I was arguing that turnovers are important, I wanted correlation not causation.    Did Henry's fumble in the Bills games "cause" the Bills to win?  No, but it was a significant factor in the Bills winning, just as Henry's fumble last night contributed to the Lions' win.

Turnovers are a huge indicator.   Purely from a scientific view point correlation does not mean much which is all I was saying.  I don’t think anyone will argue turnover differential is not correlated with winning.    I agree with your conclusion.  

Edited September 23 by Matt_In_NH

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

7 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Your thesis doesn't stand up to scrutiny.   I Googled: does winning the turnover battle correlate to winning more games in the NFL?

 

AI response:

 

 

All QBs suffer a drop off in accuracy when they throw long (ie, how long the ball is in the air).   It's one of the reasons that the great passing QBs of the 1960s and 1970s had such low completion percentages compared to today's QBs.   Darryl Lamonica wasn't called "the Mad Bomber" because he threw 20 yards downfield and a WR added 40 YAC.  It's more like Lamonica would heave it 50 yards through the air and the WR added 10 YAC.

 

  

 

Agree, but just  seems I've rarely seen Allen  complete a pass over 40 yards.  Seems like less than others.

[The Red King]

We've put up 30+ points a game, all three games this season.  Last season opposing QBs could set up lawn chairs and sip lemonade waiting for receivers to get open.

 

I think we're okay on offense, and understand the focus on defense.  Just gotta get healthy on D.

[balln]

I’m really hopeful that beane can snag a speed outside wr before deadline from one of the bottom feeders. Trade a first trade a second. It’s gotta happen. 
 

Cuz we’re not drafting one

Edited September 23 by balln

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Agree, but just  seems I've rarely seen Allen  complete a pass over 40 yards.  Seems like less than others.

 

I won't disagree, but I don't have any numbers on it.  It might be Allen not being accurate.   It might be that the Bills don't have good enough receivers.   It could also be that the Bills don't throw long as often as some other teams.

 

22 minutes ago, balln said:

I’m really hopeful that beane can snag a speed outside wr before deadline from one of the bottom feeders. Trade a first trade a second. It’s gotta happen. 
 

Cuz we’re not drafting one

 

I would be shocked if the Bills trade for a WR before the deadline unless there is a significant injury to one of the WRs currently on the roster, and if they did make a trade, I can't see them using a first or second pick.  

[Big Turk]

Against the Fins, Allen had a first...

 

Only game in his career where he didn't complete a pass more than 10 yards downfield - one attempt that was incomplete (thanks for dropping that dime in the corner of the endzone Kincaid). 
 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/buffalo-bills/news/josh-allen-new-way-win-bills-tnf-dolphins/56797d7c039b9ef36ad0d5f6

Edited September 23 by Big Turk

[GoBills808]

8 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Agree, but just  seems I've rarely seen Allen  complete a pass over 40 yards.  Seems like less than others.

how often do you think other QBs complete passes over 40 yards