Bills vs Chiefs WR investment

[hondo in seattle]

17 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Since 2021 (have to start somewhere, the Bills also invested picks in 2020)

 

The Chiefs have drafted a WR for 5 consecutive years. 1st rounder, (2) 2nd rounders, 4th rounder, and 5th rounder. So fairly high value assets. The results of those drafts are below. 

 

Jalen Royals, Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, Sky Moore, and Cornell Powell. 

 

The Bills have drafted a WR for 5 consecutive years as well. 1st rounder, 2 (5th's), and 6th rounder, and a 7th rounder. So fairly low value assets outside of Coleman. The results of those drafts are below. 

 

Keon Coleman, Kaden Prather, Justin Shorter, Khalil Shakir, and Marquez Stevenson.

 

What interests me about this question is for largely two consecutive years when I have watched Chiefs games I have said to myself this has to be the worst WR group in football. I mean, we complain about our WR's, but last week it was Hollywood Brown, Taquan Thornton, and Ju Ju. Last year it was largely the same. Mind you, Worthy could very well be something, and Rice is something, but neither looks to be the most durable. Maybe that is dumb bad luck, maybe not, but the fact remains KC is consistently fielding a horrific WR core the last two years.

 

Meanwhile back in Buffalo, we have been a bit more hesitant to invest high value here. I think it's been stated by Beane that WR is a very hard position to judge in the draft. Perhaps that is what leads to apprehensiveness. Which I largely don't agree with, however, our approach seems pretty clear. We focus this position on depth and an elevated floor vs a high ceiling, specifically with budget friendly FA acquisitions.   

 

Now one thing is for sure. We will never be running a Taquan Thornton on the field. We have good depth here. When Elijah Moore is one of your last in, that is a problem the Chiefs would love to have. But beyond the depth, you could very well argue that the returns of Coleman and Shakir rival the returns of Worthy and Rice. Rice could very well be the best of the group, but you need to play to be in the conversation. 

 

So as much as I have historically disliked our approach at WR, I think what has happened to the Chiefs is sort the reason we have that approach. I think we care more about depth and ensuring it's not a position that kills us vs reaching for the stars and missing. Further, I would argue for as much crap as we give the front office over the WR position and I still feel somewhat justifiably so, KC has done a much worse job. They have reached a critical point in talent erosion multiple years. They invested more in the draft for the same or even worse returns. Yes, a lot of bad injury luck, but nobody cares about the recipe they want to know how it tastes.   

 

 

The Chiefs are/were amazing.  For a while, they had the best coaching staff in the league and, arguably, the best roster.  It was a remarkable accomplishment.  And an ill-timed one as it just preceded the Bills' ascension.  

Now I'm beginning to realize Veach isn't superhuman.  Their current roster, outside of Mahomes, isn't elite.

 

But just because the Chiefs haven't built a great receiving corps doesn't excuse Beane for failing in the same area.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Worthy is hurt, Rice isn’t back for another 4 games and who knows what he will look like.

 

Its kinda poetic that we could end Miami’s season tonight, and they could trade Tyreek to our biggest obstacle as a result.

 

IMO, there’s no team that Tyreek would have MORE of an impact if added midseason than the Chiefs

 

Hopefully Miami would trade him to the NFC if given the chance. A few teams out there could use him. San Fran makes a lot of sense, they desperately need a WR and we know Hill works in that system. Seattle could use a Metcalf replacement. I could see LA or Washington going after him too to put themselves over the top.

 

I wouldn't be so sure that KC will try to trade for him. That kind of move hasn't been their MO in recent years. It kind of flies under the radar but their ownership has not been willing to spend cash up front the way some of the other contenders have. They've let a few of their best players go because they weren't willing to pay them, Hill himself included.

[jwhit34]

Hill's contract makes it almost impossible to trade him. Per Spotrac, Miami would have a dead cap hit of $57 million and they currently have less than $2.5 million in cap space. The only player in their top 14 whose dead cap number is less than their 2025 cap hit is Alec Ingold ($4.8 million cap hit, $3.1 million dead cap or a savings of $1.7 million). By the time you get to #15 (their punter), the '25 cap hit is $2.5 million. So I am not sure how Miami stays cap compliant without the trade partner taking on most of the dead cap money. In looking at some of their top guys there aren't a lot of restructures possible, they already have a heavy dead cap number. Tua's dead cap is already $137 million, so they're not going to take most of his $25 million salary and convert to bonus so they now have $150+ million in dead cap. If they wait until after the season the dead cap goes down to $15.5 million.

 

And KC can't do it, they are only $3.6 million under the cap. Hill's base salary is only $10 million so they could probably make that work but they are not going to want to take on $30 million in additional dead cap $ to get him. They already traded him away because they didn't want to have him comprise a big % of the cap, I don't think they reverse field now. 

[BillsVet]

I researched around the draft ending how much draft capital Buffalo has used at certain positions, factoring in traded picks.  That showed from 2021-2025, Buffalo used 12.4% of their draft value (or 779 points) on WRs.  

 

KC used  1,463 points during that same period including traded picks.  Assuming a similar amount of draft capital, KC would be around 23% used at WR.

 

The difference with KC is they're continually building the position with younger more highly regarded players whereas Buffalo does not.  The Bills are content to draft one guy and just assume he'll perform and while it's still early with Coleman, issue remains doing this with Josh is odd.  

 

I've believed the Bills don't invest in WRs because they're not confident in their draft evals, but they prefer to go with what they know as evidenced by the 29.4% on DL and 23.1% on secondary they've used of their draft capital from 2021-25.  

 

[Nelius]

14 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

You aren’t imagining it. Chiefs skill positions players in general have been garbage for the past 2 years. Kelce has been dropping some very catchable balls. Mahomes just doesn’t have enough firepower and I don’t think they win their division this year. 

I know it’s a WR thread but this context is needed - Chiefs have completely ignored RB and TE for nearly three seasons now. It’s still Noah Gray (gets two looks a game in season 5) and Pacheco (has taken big steps back) as non-WR skill players beyond Kelce. They’ve added nobody else beyond Brashard Smith as a 7th round pick. Kareem Hunt is a current focal point in their offense at 30. That’s not 5D chess that’s hoping for luck. Bills skill players as a whole are well beyond KC, regardless of advanced WR metrics. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

18 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

He will always be officially a 2nd rounder.  But it was our first round pick, Carolina slid back 1 spot to make him a 2nd rounder, but Keon was our pick at 31 and we still used that pick to acquire Keon while adding an extra pick.  So its still essentially our first round pick we used to get him.  Never understood this need to focus on it being our "2nd" rounder to imply we invested "less" into the position so many people like to do (not saying either of you are, just it happens a lot by plenty).  We still took our first pick, from the first round and flipped it into a WR 1 slot later.

TBD 🤝 ackshually 

[Mikie2times]

31 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

I researched around the draft ending how much draft capital Buffalo has used at certain positions, factoring in traded picks.  That showed from 2021-2025, Buffalo used 12.4% of their draft value (or 779 points) on WRs.  

 

KC used  1,463 points during that same period including traded picks.  Assuming a similar amount of draft capital, KC would be around 23% used at WR.

 

The difference with KC is they're continually building the position with younger more highly regarded players whereas Buffalo does not.  The Bills are content to draft one guy and just assume he'll perform and while it's still early with Coleman, issue remains doing this with Josh is odd.  

 

I've believed the Bills don't invest in WRs because they're not confident in their draft evals, but they prefer to go with what they know as evidenced by the 29.4% on DL and 23.1% on secondary they've used of their draft capital from 2021-25.  

 

Take a look at page two, I did a similar look last year and posted on it. Nice work. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

Not sure what my question was.  Why people are writing off the chiefs, I assume?  
 

I they’ve earned the right to not be written off due to the fact that they’ve been written off by many since they traded Tyreek.  All they did was make the SB every year since then.  
 

maybe the division being more difficult will push them to the WC- but I don’t see that as being a big problem for them.  They beat us in Buffalo in the divisional round 2 years ago.  
 

if people want to write them off, that’s their prerogative- I just think it’s premature.  I’ll withhold judgement until I see how their offense performs when they get Rice and Worthy back…..and once the trade deadline passes.  Tyreek could on his way back and I’d be damned if I didn’t think he would excel there again. 

Yes, that was the question. It’s hard to keep track myself of the 5 different conversations I have on here. I think KC will definitely make a play for Tyreek. If he’s indeed on the block then I hope someone offers more. The Dolphins would really screw us, themselves, and the rest of the conference if that’s where they choose to trade him. 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

I researched around the draft ending how much draft capital Buffalo has used at certain positions, factoring in traded picks.  That showed from 2021-2025, Buffalo used 12.4% of their draft value (or 779 points) on WRs.  

 

KC used  1,463 points during that same period including traded picks.  Assuming a similar amount of draft capital, KC would be around 23% used at WR.

 

The difference with KC is they're continually building the position with younger more highly regarded players whereas Buffalo does not.  The Bills are content to draft one guy and just assume he'll perform and while it's still early with Coleman, issue remains doing this with Josh is odd.  

 

I've believed the Bills don't invest in WRs because they're not confident in their draft evals, but they prefer to go with what they know as evidenced by the 29.4% on DL and 23.1% on secondary they've used of their draft capital from 2021-25.  

 

The major problem with this entire thread:  why are we only discussing 2021-2025?  

 

why are we NOT including 2020?  Any particular reason?  
 

2020, the year we invested a 1st rd pick and 3 other picks in Diggs and a 7th- while also drafting Gabe Davis in the 4th.   Add those picks (and any WRs the chiefs invested in that year) into the math you did and what does the number look like?  

FTR- I was hoping (then and now) that the Bills would’ve drafted more WRs along the way.  

 

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

The major problem with this entire thread:  why are we only discussing 2021-2025?  

 

why are we NOT including 2020?  Any particular reason?  
 

2020, the year we invested a 1st rd pick and 3 other picks in Diggs and a 7th- while also drafting Gabe Davis in the 4th.   Add those picks (and any WRs the chiefs invested in that year) into the math you did and what does the number look like?  

FTR- I was hoping (then and now) that the Bills would’ve drafted more WRs along the way.  

 

That is on page 2, and I started with 2021, because this has been a conversation of more recent investment. I was never looking at it dating back to total historical investment. Historically the Chiefs have not been in that bad of a position with WR. Historically, Buffalo has committed more assets to WR's. The topic of the thread is focusing on a time period where Buffalo did not invest as heavily, and the Chiefs did. Most of the players making up pre 2021 are no longer with either team. Again, wasn't an attempt to inventory both regimes since day one. 

Edited September 18 by Mikie2times

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

That is on page 2, and I started with 2021, because this has been a conversation of more recent investment. I was never looking at it dating back to total historical investment. Historically the Chiefs have not been in that bad of a position with WR. Historically, Buffalo has committed more assets to WR's. The topic of the thread is focusing on a time period where Buffalo did not invest as heavily, and the Chiefs did. Most of the players making up pre 2021 are no longer with either team. Again, wasn't an attempt to inventory both regimes since day one. 

Adding one year doesn’t make this “historical”.  Beanes investment into WR in 2020 is the major reason why we invested very little into WR from 2021-2023.  We had our WR1 in Diggs and they thought (wrong) they had a potential WR2-3 in Davis

Edited September 18 by NewEra

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Adding one year doesn’t make this “historical”.  Beanes investment into WR in 2020 is the major reason why we invested very little into WR from 2021-2023.  We had our WR1 in Diggs and they thought (wrong) they had a potential WR2-3 in Davis

Why not go back to the start of the regime then? 2020 is just as arbitrary as 2021. I was looking at recent investment. If you want to discuss a different window have at it. 

[billsfan89]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

Why not go back to the start of the regime then? 2020 is just as arbitrary as 2021. I was looking at recent investment. If you want to discuss a different window have at it. 

 

I the argument is that ignoring 2020 misses the context to which 2021 and 2022's lack of significant WR/pass catcher investment happened in. When you trade for a 27 year old WR1 and draft a decent WR in round 4 you probably could take a year or two and focus on other areas of the roster. Even in 2021 they added a reliable vet in Emmanuel Sanders to patch over that spot for a season. The Bills in 2023 clearly saw the deficiency in Gabe as a WR2 and drafted Kincaid in round 1 to get a better pass catching option in the mix. Then in 2024 the Bills spent their top pick at WR to ease the departure of Diggs. 

 

Why each team makes investments at each position varies in terms of the context to which the roster was at in the prior seasons. 

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

Why not go back to the start of the regime then? 2020 is just as arbitrary as 2021. I was looking at recent investment. If you want to discuss a different window have at it. 

Because I didn’t create the thread, you did.  Add in diggs/davis and their picks.  Add hardman to the chiefs tally.  
 

It’s not “just as arbitrary”.   Beane built the foundation of our WR unit in 2020.  And you just so happened to not include that. The foundation that would play key roles from 2020-2023 and played into Beane not using more picks on the position.  The bills invested 4 picks (including a 1st) into 2 WRs in 2020, yet this thread doesn’t take that into account- meanwhile it’s just one season prior.  Seems like a strange place to start.  

8 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I the argument is that ignoring 2020 misses the context to which 2021 and 2022's lack of significant WR/pass catcher investment happened in. When you trade for a 27 year old WR1 and draft a decent WR in round 4 you probably could take a year or two and focus on other areas of the roster. Even in 2021 they added a reliable vet in Emmanuel Sanders to patch over that spot for a season. The Bills in 2023 clearly saw the deficiency in Gabe as a WR2 and drafted Kincaid in round 1 to get a better pass catching option in the mix. Then in 2024 the Bills spent their top pick at WR to ease the departure of Diggs. 

 

Why each team makes investments at each position varies in terms of the context to which the roster was at in the prior seasons. 

And he knows this.  And that’s why this thread is what it is.  Saying we “have to start somewhere” is playing dumb. 

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I the argument is that ignoring 2020 misses the context to which 2021 and 2022's lack of significant WR/pass catcher investment happened in. When you trade for a 27 year old WR1 and draft a decent WR in round 4 you probably could take a year or two and focus on other areas of the roster. Even in 2021 they added a reliable vet in Emmanuel Sanders to patch over that spot for a season. The Bills in 2023 clearly saw the deficiency in Gabe as a WR2 and drafted Kincaid in round 1 to get a better pass catching option in the mix. Then in 2024 the Bills spent their top pick at WR to ease the departure of Diggs. 

 

Why each team makes investments at each position varies in terms of the context to which the roster was at in the prior seasons. 

I get the argument. I'm not in a position to also evaluate the impacts of every decision the Chiefs made like the Tyreek Hill trade to make it relative. Some people in this thread want to include the Kincaid pick. How do you draw a line? Even if I went back to say 2019 with draft picks, it would show the Chiefs have invested more. But wait, what about the Diggs pick, should that count? The OP was a simple observation. That is all. That despite not investing in significant resources the last several years (while in a position of need, mind you without guys like Diggs or Gabe Davis) we are in a much better position than the Chiefs who have done so. That also includes the fact that all these players people want to include are not with us. People are losing track of the reason for the post and trying to make this a comprehensive study in wide receiver investment. Not the reason for the post and if it was, I would say we have spent signifgantly less at WR over the last 4 years anyway and seem to be better as a result. 

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Because I didn’t create the thread, you did.  Add in diggs/davis and their picks.  Add hardman to the chiefs tally.  
 

It’s not “just as arbitrary”.   Beane built the foundation of our WR unit in 2020.  And you just so happened to not include that. The foundation that would play key roles from 2020-2023 and played into Beane not using more picks on the position.  The bills invested 4 picks (including a 1st) into 2 WRs in 2020, yet this thread doesn’t take that into account- meanwhile it’s just one season prior.  Seems like a strange place to start.  

And he knows this.  And that’s why this thread is what it is.  Saying we “have to start somewhere” is playing dumb. 

I'm not going to debate something that wasn't even the purpose of the post because you want it so. Sorry man. 

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Because I didn’t create the thread, you did.  Add in diggs/davis and their picks.  Add hardman to the chiefs tally.  
 

It’s not “just as arbitrary”.   Beane built the foundation of our WR unit in 2020.  And you just so happened to not include that. The foundation that would play key roles from 2020-2023 and played into Beane not using more picks on the position.  The bills invested 4 picks (including a 1st) into 2 WRs in 2020, yet this thread doesn’t take that into account- meanwhile it’s just one season prior.  Seems like a strange place to start.  

And he knows this.  And that’s why this thread is what it is.  Saying we “have to start somewhere” is playing dumb. 

You're wayyyyyyy to conspiracy oriented if you think I had some intention based on the year I started with. My god, get a grip. It's a positive post about this team. 

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree with you in that I feel Coleman was the Bills FO choice the whole way.  But if we believe that, it seems likely that the Bills made the trades believing none of the other teams would take Coleman prior to them.

 

But there are differences in having 1st vs 2nd round.  One major difference being the contract and franchising strategies.  With a first rounder you get 5 years vs just 4 for a second rounder.  It seems reasonable to think that Carolina traded up one spot to get that advantage.  The Bills apparently did not think that made that much of a difference.  

 

I remember thinking when the Bills traded down that it increased the odds that they would get McConkey over Coleman because McConkey was thought to have the higher floor but lower ceiling, which would be the kind of player you give up the first round perks for.  So far that scenario does seem to be playing out, McConkey had the better season last year and Coleman is closing the gap this year.  

 

I still don't know why Beane traded down into the second for a player who would take longer to develop but has a high ceiling.  At he end of next season if things progress the way they are looking it is going to cost a lot to extend Coleman - more than what the 5th year of the 31st pick in the first round would cost.

 

Just my 2 cents - but I dont think Beane felt Coleman was going to take longer to develop, just based on things he said IMHO.  I think they felt Coleman could come in and help an undersized WR room early, and he was on a pretty good pace (1000 yard+ season pace) the 5 games prior to getting hurt.  And last year was also being looked at a a mini retooling year, so there was the added value of the extra draft capital too, which is why he made the 1 spot down.  And I think he did because the worst kept secret in the draft was Carolinas crush on the local Leggett.  I think they were pretty certain he would be the pick, which is why they felt comfortable doing it IMHO.  

 

Beane said entering that draft they were focused on trading back and try and replace the 3rd they lost on Rasul.  And thats exactly what they did, that plan seemingly was laid out before the draft even began.  Now context of the draft can change plans, but based on how the board fell, Beane was clearly still interested in moving back and he got back the 3rd he was after.  

Edited September 18 by Alphadawg7

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

I get the argument. I'm not in a position to also evaluate the impacts of every decision the Chiefs made like the Tyreek Hill trade to make it relative. Some people in this thread want to include the Kincaid pick. How do you draw a line? Even if I went back to say 2019 with draft picks, it would show the Chiefs have invested more. But wait, what about the Diggs pick, should that count? The OP was a simple observation. That is all. That despite not investing in significant resources the last several years (while in a position of need, mind you without guys like Diggs or Gabe Davis) we are in a much better position than the Chiefs who have done so. That also includes the fact that all these players people want to include are not with us. People are losing track of the reason for the post and trying to make this a comprehensive study in wide receiver investment. Not the reason for the post and if it was, I would say we have spent signifgantly less at WR over the last 4 years anyway and seem to be better as a result. 

I'm not going to debate something that wasn't even the purpose of the post because you want it so. Sorry man. 

Lol- the purpose of the post is to discuss each teams investment into the WR position.   You even said “had to start somewhere”- so no, this isn’t about what I want the thread to be about.  You didn’t start in 2021 for any reason in particular.  So don’t act like there was any “purpose of the post” to begin in 2021.  This just shows that you’re not making this about the discussion.  It’s about the bills lack of investment and leaving out 2020, the foundation of our WR unit allows this conversation to lean in the direction you want it to.  
 

I call bs.  Sorry bro, I hope this doesn’t upset you, it’s not meant to.  It’s just a disingenuous thread and you clearly started in 2021 for a reason- leaving out Beanes biggest investment in the position that led to less investment over the next 4 years.  

[Mikie2times]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Lol- the purpose of the post is to discuss each teams investment into the WR position.   You even said “had to start somewhere”- so no, this isn’t about what I want the thread to be about.  You didn’t start in 2021 for any reason in particular.  So don’t act like there was any “purpose of the post” to begin in 2021.  This just shows that you’re not making this about the discussion.  It’s about the bills lack of investment and leaving out 2020, the foundation of our WR unit allows this conversation to lean in the direction you want it to.  
 

I call bs.  Sorry bro, I hope this doesn’t upset you, it’s not meant to.  It’s just a disingenuous thread and you clearly started in 2021 for a reason- leaving out Beanes biggest investment in the position that led to less investment over the next 4 years.  

It upsets me that a well intentioned post is now being targeted for being deceptive by somebody who I generally think is a decent poster around here. I mean, it doesn't really upset me, it's a message board. But it surprises me and I don't really have the time for it at this point. 

[NewEra]

30 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 

I'm not going to debate something that wasn't even the purpose of the post because you want it so. Sorry man. 
 

 

30 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

You're wayyyyyyy to conspiracy oriented if you think I had some intention based on the year I started with. My god, get a grip. It's a positive post about this team. 

 

12 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

It upsets me that a well intentioned post is now being targeted for being deceptive by somebody who I generally think is a decent poster around here. I mean, it doesn't really upset me, it's a message board. But it surprises me and I don't really have the time for it at this point. 

Sorry man.  You titled the thread Bills vs Chiefs WR investment and then proceed to leave out the biggest investment (by far) that Beane made into the position.  Why?  
 

 

[Mikie2times]

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 

 

Sorry man.  You titled the thread Bills vs Chiefs WR investment and then proceed to leave out the biggest investment (by far) that Beane made into the position.  Why?  
 

 

I have explained why. I thought it was interesting how people knock our WR investment, including myself, yet here we are, signifgantly better positioned than KC, our nemesis, who invests heavily into the position. That was it man. No greater thoughts. No desire to be overly specific. Clearly some people have that desire. It was just my god, KC is a dumpster fire at WR nearly every time I see them and we aren't. Within that context, one where I'm being complimentary to the Bills, why in gods name do you think I omitted information intentionally to make us look worse? This doesn't really matter and like I said I would just prefer to drop this outright. 

Edited September 18 by Mikie2times