Bills vs Chiefs WR investment

[dayman]

Strange argument. Chiefs use higher picks on WRs and miss, but we smartly use lower picks to somehow have a higher probability of getting average guys? This doesn’t make sense. 
 

A big part of it is that we both pick late so we can’t really get a top guy they always go quick. Also, we had Diggs. If they had not lost Hill they’d have taken WRs later.

 

The real story here is just that it’s tough to win the NFL. Dick Juron was right.

[GASabresIUFan]

8 minutes ago, dayman said:

A big part of it is that we both pick late so we can’t really get a top guy they always go quick. Also, we had Diggs. If they had not lost Hill they’d have taken WRs later.

They didn't lose Hill.  They moved on because they didn't want to pay him.

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, BlueRed said:

Keon was a 2nd rounder

We have not drafted a 1st round wr in the Allen era.  And no Diggs doesn't count.

[Mikie2times]

17 minutes ago, dayman said:

Strange argument. Chiefs use higher picks on WRs and miss, but we smartly use lower picks to somehow have a higher probability of getting average guys? This doesn’t make sense. 
 

A big part of it is that we both pick late so we can’t really get a top guy they always go quick. Also, we had Diggs. If they had not lost Hill they’d have taken WRs later.

 

The real story here is just that it’s tough to win the NFL. Dick Juron was right.

I'm surprised that was your take here. The point is the Chiefs have invested at a high level in the WR position, as most would like to see us do. It hasn't worked, to the extent that our lack of investment has shown better returns. Which might be part of why we choose not to invest, as Beane has called out it being a high miss position. We seem more content with depth here, making sure the floor is high, and that Allen has baseline targets that can be functional. KC is swinging for the fences, largely missing. We have emulated them in so many ways, but not this one. Which seems to get the most criticism, but when you look closer, even for a critic like myself, it hasn't gone very well for them.  

Edited September 18 by Mikie2times

[RiotAct]

10 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

KC is swinging for the fences, largely missing. We have emulated them in so many ways, but not this one. Which seems to get the most criticism, but when you look closer, even for a critic like myself, it hasn't gone very well for them.  

well, besides, you know…

[gonzo1105]

I think its a pretty big misnomer that the Bills havent invested in pass catchers. If you want to say they haven't invested enough high round draft picks than I guess I can listen to that. I realize they haven't invested as much as say the defensive line but they have brought in guys.

 

Free Agents: 

John Brown

Cole Beasley

Emmanuel Sanders

Jamison Crowder

Deonte Harty

Mack Hollins

Curtis Samuel

Joshua Palmer

Elijah Moore

 

 

 

Draft: 

Dawson Knox (Round 3)

Gabe Davis (Round 4)

Isaiah Hodgins (Round 6)

Marquez Stevenson (Round 6)

Khalil Shakir (Round 5)

Dalton Kincaid (Round 1)

Justin Shorter(Round 5)

Keon Coleman (Round 2) 

Kaden Prather (Round 7)

 

Trade: 

Stefon Diggs (1st Rounder)

Amari Cooper(3rd Rounder)

 

 

There are obviously other players that the Bills have signed that I didn't include but these are the main names over Allens 8 years. Its hardly impressive and I'd say there have been a lot of misses on this list as well. I think where people get upset is that they haven't spent a first rounder on a WR in the draft while they have had Allen outside of drafting Kincaid, a TE. The Bills have invested in the Wide Receiver position but I think you can say they have spent more time in the veteran pass catcher market than they have in the draft market clearly. I just don't think you can say the Bills haven't "invested" they just haven't invested in the way fans and media want them too by spending high draft picks on the position. 

 

This also doesn't include the fact that they have drafted Dawkins, Brown and Torrence, and invested decent money in McGovern for his offensive line as well as multiple early to mid round running backs for the offense. I'm not defending Beane a ton as they have failed on the Defensive line a lot and people want that money reinvested in pass catching but its not their philosophy. 

 

 

 

[NewEra]

8 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We have not drafted a 1st round wr in the Allen era.  And no Diggs doesn't count.

We used a 1st rd pick on Keon Coleman.  He just wasn’t drafted in the 1st round.  we used a 1st plus other picks to land Diggs.  You’re debating semantics.  Looking for a loophole.  But there’s no loophole in logic.  
 

When the discussion revolves around the investment of draft picks the team has made into the WR position, you can’t remove Keon and Diggs for the discussion just because they weren’t actually drafted in the 1st rd by the bills.  The bills acquired them by INVESTING first round picks. Thats the discussion.  Don’t be stupid
 

Edited September 18 by NewEra

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We used a 1st rd pick on Keon Coleman.  He just wasn’t drafted in the 1st round.  we used a 1st plus other picks to land Diggs.  You’re debating semantics.  Looking for a hook phone.  But there’s no loophole in logic.  
 

When the discussion revolves around the investment of draft picks the team has made into the WR position, you can’t remove Keon and Diggs for the discussion just because they weren’t actually drafted in the 1st rd by the bills.  The bills acquired them by INVESTING first round picks. Thats the discussion.  Don’t be stupid
 

There's a reasonable chance Keon and Kincaid end up as genuine plus players. If that happens, Beane's strategy will be vindicated, though I still think he should go after more WR talent early in the draft. 

[dayman]

28 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I'm surprised that was your take here. The point is the Chiefs have invested at a high level in the WR position, as most would like to see us do. It hasn't worked, to the extent that our lack of investment has shown better returns. Which might be part of why we choose not to invest, as Beane has called out it being a high miss position. We seem more content with depth here, making sure the floor is high, and that Allen has baseline targets that can be functional. KC is swinging for the fences, largely missing. We have emulated them in so many ways, but not this one. Which seems to get the most criticism, but when you look closer, even for a critic like myself, it hasn't gone very well for them.  

Considering how low they pick you can basically dock them a round, so it’s really like a 2nd and two 3rds over 5 years. My main point is that you need to get lucky later on. Which we agree on and I think is your main point. I’m more so saying I don’t really credit Bean for this, it’s not like he made alternative investments that worked great! Another note is they basically take fast guys and Andy will figure the rest out later. We don’t do that. Not sure who is right there but Andy seems to have done well!

 

Also, not sure our WRs have been better over the course of the 5 years, and I’m not sure they’re better this year if the Chiefs are fully healthy (although they might be).
 

Kelsey is old also they’re a year late on replacing him. This is a big part of their issues. With that new TE we have that caught that TD I’d fleece them for a desperation 1st RD for a Knox in they would do it! (They would not, I know)

Edited September 18 by dayman

[LABILLBACKER]

17 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We used a 1st rd pick on Keon Coleman.  He just wasn’t drafted in the 1st round.  we used a 1st plus other picks to land Diggs.  You’re debating semantics.  Looking for a hook phone.  But there’s no loophole in logic.  
 

When the discussion revolves around the investment of draft picks the team has made into the WR position, you can’t remove Keon and Diggs for the discussion just because they weren’t actually drafted in the 1st rd by the bills.  The bills acquired them by INVESTING first round picks. Thats the discussion.  Don’t be stupid
 

You can rationalize it any way your heart desires. 

[Richard Noggin]

22 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We used a 1st rd pick on Keon Coleman.  He just wasn’t drafted in the 1st round.  we used a 1st plus other picks to land Diggs.  You’re debating semantics.  Looking for a hook phone.  But there’s no loophole in logic.  
 

When the discussion revolves around the investment of draft picks the team has made into the WR position, you can’t remove Keon and Diggs for the discussion just because they weren’t actually drafted in the 1st rd by the bills.  The bills acquired them by INVESTING first round picks. Thats the discussion.  Don’t be stupid
 

 

It's just not 100% true the way you're framing it. They "invested" PART of a 1st round pick in Coleman, if you insist, because they got another player or two out of that trade back. They literally spent a 2nd round pick on the guy. 

[Mikie2times]

 

Thought I would add this chart I did in the offseason. I posted it before, but maybe it helps establish in some consistent way the level of draft investment made at each position. Mind you, it does not account of pick for player trades like Diggs.

 

All of us are familiar with the draft trade value chart. Each pick is assigned a value. So I all I did was add the the value of every teams drafts since 2019. Then I looked at how many points were allocated to each position. So this isn't saying who spent the most, it's saying who spent the most of what they had as a %. We rank low as you would expect. KC is fairly high, as you would expect. I also included DL for context.

 

I found the largest correlations with win % being DL, CB, and WR investment. Teams that invest the highest in those three areas seem to have the best performance over this time frame. That's not to say that is the reason, it could be many reasons, I'm just describing the behavior of the teams that have won the most. 

 

Here is the composite of WR/DL/DB investment since that time. We are about middle of the pack. 

 

 

Last edit to this post and last call out. Notice the point totals. That goes to show how little draft capitol we have had relative to the rest of the league. 2nd to only KC as far as lowest value. Again, put in context just how late we draft. The Raiders are so low because the two city abbreviations screwed up my formulas and I got lazy. 

 

Edited September 18 by Mikie2times

[Nephilim17]

Kincaid is more of a WR than a traditional TE.

[NewEra]

15 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

It's just not 100% true the way you're framing it. They "invested" PART of a 1st round pick in Coleman, if you insist, because they got another player or two out of that trade back. They literally spent a 2nd round pick on the guy. 

Ok-  if that’s the case with Keon, what about Diggs?  We traded a 1st + 4th, 5th, 6th for Diggs and a 7th.  Yet according to the logic he’s using, means nothing as far as draft investment because we didn’t actually draft him

[HappyDays]

46 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I think its a pretty big misnomer that the Bills havent invested in pass catchers. If you want to say they haven't invested enough high round draft picks than I guess I can listen to that. I realize they haven't invested as much as say the defensive line but they have brought in guys.

 

For me it's not about the total investment (or lack thereof), it's about the various times over the years where they had a chance to invest in one but didn't. The 2019 2nd round really sticks out, taking Cody Ford over DK Metcalf and AJ Brown, even Terry McLaurin. Last year when they took DeWayne Carter over Troy Franklin. Or this past offseason where they didn't trade for DK Metcalf and passed up on guys like Jalen Royals and Tory Horton on day three. None of this is based on hindsight either, plenty of us on here were calling for these moves when they were available.

 

It feels like they've only invested in the position when absolutely necessary. Any time they have an opportunity to really stack the room they keep finding a reason to use the draft pick or the money on some other position. Beane can give whatever reasons he wants, it's a simple fact that he values the position less than any other GM in the league. This feels like a defining season to see if that strategy can really work to win a championship. The first 53 minutes of the Baltimore game kind of got erased from the fanbase's memory but there were real problems with the downfield passing offense in that game and it remains to be seen if that is going to be a fatal flaw of this team.

[Richard Noggin]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Ok-  if that’s the case with Keon, what about Diggs?  We traded a 1st + 4th, 5th, 6th for Diggs and a 7th.  Yet according to the logic he’s using, means nothing as far as draft investment because we didn’t actually draft him

 

That's what the Bills invested in Diggs, without question. If this is a draft pick investment thread, then the specific picks used to acquire WRs should be what's considered. So just because someone else seems wrong, we shouldn't slide our thinking into "wrong" territory. 

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

For me it's not about the total investment (or lack thereof), it's about the various times over the years where they had a chance to invest in one but didn't. The 2019 2nd round really sticks out, taking Cody Ford over DK Metcalf and AJ Brown, even Terry McLaurin. Last year when they took DeWayne Carter over Troy Franklin. Or this past offseason where they didn't trade for DK Metcalf and passed up on guys like Jalen Royals and Tory Horton on day three. None of this is based on hindsight either, plenty of us on here were calling for these moves when they were available.

 

It feels like they've only invested in the position when absolutely necessary. Any time they have an opportunity to really stack the room they keep finding a reason to use the draft pick or the money on some other position. Beane can give whatever reasons he wants, it's a simple fact that he values the position less than any other GM in the league. This feels like a defining season to see if that strategy can really work to win a championship. The first 53 minutes of the Baltimore game kind of got erased from the fanbase's memory but there were real problems with the downfield passing offense in that game and it remains to be seen if that is going to be a fatal flaw of this team.

 

Right thats not my argument though. The argument that I'm presenting is that the Bills don't invest in pass catchers. I think that's false. If you want to talk about specific examples or the manner they go about their investment than I am 100% in agreement with you. Would I like for them to draft a guy in 2nd-3rd round on a more consistent basis, sure you wont hear me put up a fight about that. It just seems the Bills, when they do invest, would rather get a "finished" product more than developing a guy. Why that is, I have no idea. 

[NeverOutNick]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

The only reason the Chiefs keep drafting receivers is because they keep missing. If they had a really good stable of receivers, they'd be investing those draft picks elsewhere, at least somewhat. And many of their free agent acquisitions at the position have been underwhelming as well. It didn't used to matter as much because Kelce was so dominant, and he was the primary receiving threat. But he is maybe above average at best now, if even that.

Well run organizations that think they have a franchise QB continually invest in WRs in the draft. See the packers, chiefs, ravens, bengals, Texans, heck even the chargers are doing it now with none other than Jim Harbaugh in charge. Overpaying WRs like Palmer who never produced in his career and Samuel who isn’t a real WR is not what winning FOs do. Beane’s bandaid on this colossal misguided strategy is that he has the best player in the league playing QB. He may just get lucky enough to win a SB despite his miscues because Josh is such a unicorn but It wouldn’t work with any other teams QB and he’d be fired already if he didn’t have Josh to bail him and McD out. 
 

INVEST DURING THE DRAFT IN CHEAP LABOR WRs FOR THE BEST QB IN THE LEAGUE PLEASE 🙏🏻 

 

Go Bills

[HappyDays]

25 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Ok-  if that’s the case with Keon, what about Diggs?  We traded a 1st + 4th, 5th, 6th for Diggs and a 7th.  Yet according to the logic he’s using, means nothing as far as draft investment because we didn’t actually draft him

 

So I agree with this, Diggs should be counted as a 1st round investment. Yeah it's not exactly the same as drafting a rookie WR but it feels like pointless semantics to argue that it doesn't count.

 

The combined offseasons of 2019 and 2020 was really the last time Beane made it a point to invest in the position. The result was a very effective three headed monster spearheaded by Allen coming into his own. Since 2020 though it's impossible to deny the lack of investment. I feel better about the strategy right now than I did 18 months ago but I definitely still have my doubts.

 

Edited September 18 by HappyDays

[Mikie2times]

9 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

That's what the Bills invested in Diggs, without question. If this is a draft pick investment thread, then the specific picks used to acquire WRs should be what's considered. So just because someone else seems wrong, we shouldn't slide our thinking into "wrong" territory. 

I can say from my perspective, I don't attempt to categorize the Diggs trade into a draft pick discussion because I can't track down all the rest of the draft pick trade for players and input that information. Same for Kincaid. I understand he is a receiving TE, but I'm not going to try and categorize all of those types and put some sort of value to weight that as a WR investment. Logical sure, hard to do with analytics and not introduce my opinion.  

 

I will also add this look is from 2021 on, so it is outside the Diggs window. But also likely impacted 2021/2022 etc, as we acquired him reducing the need for higher investment. So if one wants to go down the discussion of us actually investing a lot more than what the pure draft picks show, certainly a conversation you could have.

Edited September 18 by Mikie2times