WGR Discussing McD's job security

[stuvian]

If anyone should get canned it's Beane. We have had zero dominating defenders in the entire Beane era. This at a time when Philly and the Rams improve every year. The only draft pick of consequence is Josh. I give Beane this season. McDermott on the other hand has done much with little and should be extended. 

[Cash]

4 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

I'm not arguing with any of that.  We just seem to be on the other end of these "Calls" or random plays too much.

 

Let me ask you this.  If we got the 1 seed and lost to KC at home in the AFC championship this year, 38-35 because we couldn't get a stop, sack, or turnover.  Would you want to keep McD?  For me, I know that's a great season, but I'd be ready to try something different.  

In that scenario, I want to know specifically who’s available (and interested, via back channels) before moving on from McD. 
 

Look at the Knicks this past year. They’ve been building up, had a mostly great playoff run, and moved on from Thibs - figuring they could upgrade from his known structural flaws. I saw a lot of galaxy-brained defenses of the firing when it happened. Turns out they had zero plan for a successor and looked like a laughing stock getting denied permission to talk to every HC in the league. I’m not interested in dumping “Andy Reid in Philly” for the next Mike McDaniel or similar. 

[NeverOutNick]

5 hours ago, Virgil said:

Was listening to WGR yesterday and someone called into ask what Schoop and Bulldog would need to see happen for McD to get fired after this season.  There answer and reasoning honestly surprised me, and also seemed like a course correction from prior years from them.

 

They both stated that the Bills switching to the new stadium next year should prevent McD from being fired under most circumstances, even missing the playoffs.  They both stated that a catastrophic PR issue or the entire team falling off a cliff could change things, but that's about it.

 

I know we have a thread about McD every year,  and even I've been thinking about this more since last years playoff exit.  To me, if we get knocked out of the playoffs again and the defense is the main reason why (giving up 25+ points again), then I think it's time to move on from McD.  I'm not a McD hater by any means.  I will always be grateful for the culture he's brought to this team and the winning we've experienced since pulling us from the drought.  However, if our D (his specialty) fails us again, then I feel very confident to say that McD has taken us as far as he can as a coach.  It doesn't mean he's a bad coach, just means he's not a Superbowl caliber coach.  I know McD would get hired almost immediately by another team that is looking to recreate the Buffalo success and we would be taking a chance on anyone else.  But I also believe we would have our choice of HC candidates.  

 

I guess I'm just at the point where these playoffs losses haven't been talent related so much as they've been outcoached and outschemed.  We put so much focus on the defensive roster over the years, especially this year, that it's time to put up or shut up.  If not, then we are just defining insanity by running it back.

 

The stadium excuse was just strange to me.  Why would that be a factor as the stadium is new to McD too.  

I don’t care if this is unpopular and I do hope that he’s finally successful. BUT I gave up on him being fired after the consistent game mismanagements during the regular season and horrible defensive adjustments in the playoffs year after year. Blown multiple chances at home-field advantage and getting us to the Super Bowl and he hasn’t been fired yet because we have the best player in football at the helm to make the season look like a “success”. He’s like a cat and has 9 lives maybe more. But here’s hoping this is the year he doesn’t botch us getting a one seed since we have the easiest schedule we’ve had in a long time and there’s really no excuse not to and maybe he will figure out how to get ready for the Chiefs in the playoffs and not just roll over to daddy Reid and Uncle Spags. 🤞🏻 🙏🏻 

Edited Friday at 09:26 PM by NeverOutNick

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

2 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

The 2023 divisional game.

 

That Chiefs team scored 21 PPG. That was their lowest ranked offense since 2012, when they went 2-14.  They averaged 5.5 yards per play in the regular season.
 

They scored their highest playoff game point total that year, against us, to the tune of 27 points. The same point total they scored against the eventual 4-13 Pats that season.

 

They averaged 9 yards per play.

 

And the Bills won the TO battle.
 

And still lost.

 

My favorite stat from that game is that the Chiefs only converted one 3rd down. 

 

99% of the time that would mean a dominant defensive game, but in our case it meant our DEF was so incredibly bad we couldn't even force 3rd downs. 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

8 minutes ago, MJS said:

Based on what? Nothing but a biased hunch.

Since 2010

 

-Teams that finish a season with a QB who has a QBR of 65-69.99 are 475-288 = 62.25%

-Teams that finish a season with a QB who has a QBR of 70+ are 582-208 = 73.67%

 

Allen has three 70+ finishes since 2020 and two 65-70 finishes. So every year. That is a massive sample above. Teams with great QB's win and win a lot. The Bills/McD are 73.49% in this time. 

 

McD is the best in the league at turnover differential with a system and structure in place that leads to an unusual consistency. Two qualities which give him a leg up on at least 60-70% of NFL HC's. But you can also win a hell of a lot of games in this league with great QB play. So it's really hard to place a true value on what McD brings to team at this stage in the process. 

 

I think it's more clear what he brings to a rebuilding franchise. Which could be among the best in the league. Maybe he is also the guy you want now, but separating his value from Allen along with the postseason is not exactly easy. It never is with great HC and QB pairings, but at the very least those pairings usually have a Super Bowl attached to allow for for both to get the flowers. 

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

lol that is because it is unimaginable that we hold the chiefs to 19. it just isnt happening

 

and then how are you not comfortable being done w this guy? i mean we have literally seen us make the key plays w 13 seconds left vs the Chiefs and still manage to gag it away

 

i mean more power to you if you want to see more i guess

 

When we have kept them to lower scores in the regular season the games have still come down to the last 4 minutes. It is just how these two teams play each other.

 

Does the Bills defense have to play better against them in the playoffs? For sure. Does the O have to be able to get it done inside 4 minutes when a touchdown wins? Yep. 

43 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Right, so when they basically take that strategy of ignoring the offense and focusing on the defense this offseason to nearly the maximum, and we get the same result, what is the answer?

 

Do you use all 7 draft picks on defense next year instead of throwing a 6th rounder for a PS WR because Josh couldn’t put up 30+ while the defense forced 2 punts?

 

Like I said, I love McD. I wish 13 seconds had never happened, because he wins a ring there and he is coach for life and probably a HoF coach, and history is completely different. I don’t know if something is psychologically the matter, but his mentor, Reid himself needed a new job to fix his playoff woes.

 

 

Do you think we will ever see the Bills hold the Chiefs to 19 to find out?

 

They have held them to lower scores in the regular season. And they haven't won in blowouts. 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

When we have kept them to lower scores in the regular season the games have still come down to the last 4 minutes. It is just how these two teams play each other.

 

Does the Bills defense have to play better against them in the playoffs? For sure. Does the O have to be able to get it done inside 4 minutes when a touchdown wins? Yep. 

 

They have held them to lower scores in the regular season. And they haven't won in blowouts. 

again- we have proven that a TD inside 4 minutes does not in fact win. we have actually proven that multiple TDs inside 4 minutes does not win

 

what you are saying is that the offense needs to score w exactly zero seconds left for a lead to be safe. and there is no offense in league history for whom that is a reasonable standard

 

and yet somehow that is exactly where we are w this staff

[Nihilarian]

5 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

The only thing I put on McD is the 13 seconds catastrophe. No coach should have allowed that to happen. Pretty big thing but McD is one of the best coaches in the league.

That season the Buffalo Bills had the #1 overall defense in the league in both points and yards allowed. The Bills passing defense was so good that season with Poyer and Hyde. My thoughts are that McD was trusting in Leslie Frazier to know what he was doing in that playoff game...and he clearly didn't as he called a "prevent defense"! Mahomes ripped him a new one for it. 

 

It's just bad luck that the Chiefs with HC Andy Reid have been the best team in the league the last five years and Reid the best HC. It also helps the Chiefs to have Steve Spagnuolo as their DC as he usually finds a way to have his defense step up in the playoffs.

 

Let's not forget that the 13 second game came down to overtime 36-42 with the Chiefs winning the coin toss and Buffalo never saw the ball again. That led the NFL to make changes in the overtime rules.

 

Anyway, I have no idea why this topic of changing head coaches in Buffalo ever comes up as the ONLY HC better in wins the last five years has been Andy Reid. So, if Andy becomes available then it might be a thought. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, Nihilarian said:

That season the Buffalo Bills had the #1 overall defense in the league in both points and yards allowed. The Bills passing defense was so good that season with Poyer and Hyde. My thoughts are that McD was trusting in Leslie Frazier to know what he was doing in that playoff game...and he clearly didn't as he called a "prevent defense"! Mahomes ripped him a new one for it. 

 

It's just bad luck that the Chiefs with HC Andy Reid have been the best team in the league the last five years and Reid the best HC. It also helps the Chiefs to have Steve Spagnuolo as their DC as he usually finds a way to have his defense step up in the playoffs.

 

Let's not forget that the 13 second game came down to overtime 36-42 with the Chiefs winning the coin toss and Buffalo never saw the ball again. That led the NFL to make changes in the overtime rules.

 

Anyway, I have no idea why this topic of changing head coaches in Buffalo ever comes up as the ONLY HC better in wins the last five years has been Andy Reid. So, if Andy becomes available then it might be a thought. 

lol it's not 'just bad luck'

 

mcdermott literally GAVE MAHOMES to Andy Reid! he's the architect of his own demise! if it happened to any other team it would be absolutely hilarious

[gomper]

4 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

The analysis should be on Pegula not McD.

 

Look at Terry's comments in HK Ep. 1: "Hire competent people and then trust them to do their jobs."

 

Look at Kevyn Adams' tenure.

 

McD isn't going anywhere.

Myself and every Sabres fan cringed when he said that. Then I started laughing.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

again- we have proven that a TD inside 4 minutes does not in fact win. we have actually proven that multiple TDs inside 4 minutes does not win

 

what you are saying is that the offense needs to score w exactly zero seconds left for a lead to be safe. and there is no offense in league history for whom that is a reasonable standard

 

and yet somehow that is exactly where we are w this staff

 

No. If there were another 13 second like incident then the house would be cleaned. 

 

But the O has scored in that situation 1 in 3 times in the post season. 

 

Whoever is on the field at the end the Bills need to make a play. O or D. 

[RoscoeParrish]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

When we have kept them to lower scores in the regular season the games have still come down to the last 4 minutes. It is just how these two teams play each other.

 

Does the Bills defense have to play better against them in the playoffs? For sure. Does the O have to be able to get it done inside 4 minutes when a touchdown wins? Yep. 

 

They have held them to lower scores in the regular season. And they haven't won in blowouts. 

They have….in the regular season.

 

do you think it’s a coincidence that the Bills defense has performed quite well against the Chiefs in the regular season in spots and then consistently has one of their worst performances every year in the postseason?

 

I guess that’s kind of the question. 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No. If there were another 13 second like incident then the house would be cleaned. 

 

But the O has scored in that situation 1 in 3 times in the post season. 

 

Whoever is on the field at the end the Bills need to make a play. O or D. 

wrong

the offense has scored vs Chiefs in that situation 1 out of 2 times

 

special teams missed the third

 

or are you saying for the offense to 'make a play' it has to be a touchdown? and the standard for the defense (according to you) is still 'hey they got a stop in that game we gave up 32 in?'

 

pretty different bars for achievement but again- that is what you have to do to square the Mcdermott circle

[Success]

Man, let's just win a Super Bowl so everyone can be like, 'McDermott & Beane are awesome!'

 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

They have….in the regular season.

 

do you think it’s a coincidence that the Bills defense has performed quite well against the Chiefs in the regular season in spots and then consistently has one of their worst performances every year in the postseason?

 

I guess that’s kind of the question. 

 

It is the question, indeed. I think they have to play better against the Chiefs in the post season. But I just don't suppose that if they do that will result in a lopsided 31-19 win or whatever.

[BuffaloBillyG]

46 minutes ago, stuvian said:

If anyone should get canned it's Beane. We have had zero dominating defenders in the entire Beane era. This at a time when Philly and the Rams improve every year. The only draft pick of consequence is Josh. I give Beane this season. McDermott on the other hand has done much with little and should be extended. 

I always find statements like this hilarious when this topic comes up. And not trying to single you in particular out because there are many like it in this thread.

 

Ok. You give him this season....then what? You're gonna call WGR? Make a strongly worded post here on TBD? Try and get a billboard erected?

 

Facts is, none of us have any control or say so. From everything I have seen and heard McDermott is the Bills HC until McDermott decides to step away. Terry thinks the world of him. This organization is literally built around the philosophy that it's better to be stable and consistent and have a shot at the end of the year than catch lightning in a bottle once and be bad to mediocre the rest of the time. McDermott provides exactly what the organization wants. 

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

wrong

the offense has scored vs Chiefs in that situation 1 out of 2 times

 

special teams missed the third

 

or are you saying for the offense to 'make a play' it has to be a touchdown? and the standard for the defense (according to you) is still 'hey they got a stop in that game we gave up 32 in?'

 

pretty different bars for achievement but again- that is what you have to do to square the Mcdermott circle

 

No that's fair. Offense and special teams. We have failed to make plays on all 3 phases. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

No that's fair. Offense and special teams. We have failed to make plays on all 3 phases. 

lol right everyone is to blame

 

how convenient!

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

lol right everyone is to blame

 

how convenient!

 

I mean, it's the truth. I don't think it is one thing failing the Bills. They just haven't made the critical plays. 

[RoscoeParrish]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean, it's the truth. I don't think it is one thing failing the Bills. They just haven't made the critical plays. 

I find it more than curious that you (and others) seem to try to separate McD and the rest of the teams performances.

 

When the ST groups fail, the head coach wears it.

 

When the offense fails, the head coach wears it.

 

When the defense fails spectacularly, the head coach wears it.

 

To me, all you have proven is that the head coach Sean McDermott in year 8 has managed to fail in multiple ways over multiple seasons.