Optimistic vs Realistic Expectations

[Buffalo Ballin]

We just have one: Keep Josh Allen healthy and standing upright to be this generation's GOAT QB.

[corta765]

14 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

This is wild. Unless I'm missing somthing, we are the only team whose "optimistic" is Super Bowl win.

 

And we are the only team whose "realistic" is Super Bowl appearance. 

 

These guys think the Bills are the best team in the league. 

I said the Ravens SB win and Eagles also.

15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Optimistic: SB Appearance. 

Let the Gods decide

 

Realistic:  Face KC again in AFCCG. 

Let the Gods decide.

 

If realistic is the outcome my liver is toast lol

[corta765]

13 hours ago, folz said:

 

I'm not saying that I agree or disagree with this analysis, just condensing some of the info as far as who the OP sees as SB contenders:

 

Based on the OP's optimistic views for teams, he has 13 teams as SB contenders (listed as at least making a conf. title game, optimistically---2024 playoff teams are in bold): LA Rams, KC, Philly, Washington, Pitt, Houston, Detroit, Denver, Atlanta, SF, Tampa, Green Bay, and Buffalo. (the only 2024 playoff teams not in contention are the Chargers and Vikings, replaced by Atlanta and SF).

 

OP's best optimistic views:

Buffalo wins the SB

Philly wins the SB

Ravens SB appearance

 

OP's best realistic results:

Buffalo makes a SB appearance

Baltimore makes AFC Championship

Philly make the NFC Championship

Washington makes the NFC Championship

 

So, seems like similar results to last year (as far as the playoff teams go), except (I would surmise) with Buffalo advancing to the SB (over Balt) and probably facing Philly (with either team winning the SB, but Buffalo being a slight favorite in odds).

 

I appreciate that. This is more expectation wise what feels optimistic vs realistic. If you look at the last 20 years since QBs got more protected and rules favored offenses typically your top 10 QBs rotate in the SB, if you don't have that you need a Bo Nix or Daniels ascension from a rookie or 2nd year guy to change the expectation from realistically playoffs to SB or bust. If I told you the next 5 years you had Allen, Lamar, & Burrow against the field to make at least one SB I think you would take those 3 against the field. Good QBs tend to have good and consistent results team wise. Also any team with a title game appearance does not mean a loss as much as they at least get there.

 

I actually am really high on Green Bay but Love needs to take that step from really good to elite. I think he can and if he does the optimistic view becomes realistic in my eyes. That is basically the fulcrum point I am viewing things through if you don't have an elite guy passing. Cincy is weird because Burrow is absolutely elite, but I don't trust the defense enough to be a 1 seed even if they are a playoff team.... BUT Burrow absolutely is good enough to go hot like Rodgers in 2011 on his own so even though my realistic expectation is less then title game they absolutely are a threat.

[SoCal Deek]

Nice work on this . I immediately went to the AFC East predictions but living in Southern California couldn’t help take a peek at the LA Rams. I remember a year ago when people said the Rams were going to be a total disaster having put all the chips in to win a Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium a year or two previously ….and yet somehow (if Corta is right) they’re right back as top contenders to do it….again. Is this observation Bills related? Yes. Can it please be our year in 2025? Please! It just shouldn’t be this darn hard…dammit! 
Go Bills 

Edited 20 hours ago by SoCal Deek

[uticaclub]

Every poster:

 

Optimistic - Super Bowl Champ

Realistic - Division Championship, lose in the 2nd round or AFCCG

[corta765]

43 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Every poster:

 

Optimistic - Super Bowl Champ

Realistic - Division Championship, lose in the 2nd round or AFCCG

 

Well if you have Allen, Lamar, Mahomes or you PHI with Hurts and that roster how is that wrong? Honestly that should be the expectation given the rosters they have and caliber of QB play. Once you hit the divisional round/title games your talking about slim margins between winning and losing so you have to be realistic with that. But if I was a fan of any four of those teams my expectation should be SB title optimistically.

 

Again CIN is weird because Burrow and the offense is elite, but the defense was so bad (and this hasn't been a banner offseason of improvement) that it weighs down what they do. It is a quasi Manning Colts situation there, except IND at least spend real money and resources whereas CIN is fighting with their best pass rusher and their 1st round pick who also is a talented rusher over contract language sooo yeaaaa

[Shaw66]

13 hours ago, DeepPass said:

I'd call that very optimistic!

Why is that optimistic?  Two teams make the AFC championship game, and the Bills are almost certainly among the top four contenders to make it.  That means the Bills have a 50-50 chance of making it to that game.  Since 50-50 is the realistic outcome of ANY game, the Bills making the championship game is realistic. 

[hondo in seattle]

I love the OP's confidence.  His realistic prediction is we get to the SB.  His optimistic prediction is we win it.

 

My optimistic hope is we win but my realistic prediction is that we sadly bow out in the playoffs again.  I'm not convinced were the best team in the AFC though I do think this team's roster may prove better than last year's.  We'll see.  

[JP51]

Buffalo - Realistic AFC Div/Champ

               Optimistic - SB Victory

 

Baltimore - same as Bills

 

KC - honestly same as Bills

(I think AFC SB team is in these 3) 

 

The rest of my relevant

 

Bengals - WC/In the hunt

                 AFCCG

 

Phins -  top 10 pick

              In the hunt

 

Jets  - Top 10 pick

            Top 15 pick

 

Pats     In the hunt

            WC game

 

Stillers - WC

               Division Rd

 

Chargers - In the hunt

                   WC

 

Houston  WC/Division

                 AFCCG

 

NFC

 

Philly  NFCCG

           SB win

 

Washington  W/C /Division 

                      SB loss 

 

LA Rams -     WC

                      Division 

 

Detroit   -    NFCCG

                   Super bowl loss

 

Dallas -   Painful

                Jerry Jones in full meltdown mode  ok maybe reverse these... then again maybe not... 

 

 

 

 

Edited 15 hours ago by JP51

[BullBuchanan]

Realistic: AFC Div Champ - Lose to KC/Bal in Division or AFCCG

Optimistic - SB Appearance

[BuffaloMatt]

Final four- optimistic 

 

Elite eight- realistic

[HomeskillitMoorman]

22 hours ago, Gregg said:

Optimistic - Super Bowl champs

Realistic - McDermott's D gets smoked again in another divisional round/AFCCG loss.

 

This is the the really unfortunate reality