folz Posted 13 hours ago Posted 13 hours ago As far as how the Bills would fare without Josh, well you first have to define your terms. Is it if Josh got injured early and we had to play Trubisky all year? Or is it because Josh left Buffalo or was injured in the offseason and Beane had either, or both, free agency and the draft to replace him? The OP set the terms at average QB play. Well, last year, the most average QBs were Matthew Stafford and C.J. Stroud. Player Total Yards rank TDs rank INTs rank Stafford 17th 16th 16th most INTs Stroud 16th 17th 8th most INTs So, how would the Bills fare with average QB play? Well Stafford and Stroud both led their teams to 10 wins last year. No question, the Bills currently have a better RB room, TE room, and offensive line than the Texans or Rams. While the Texans and Rams have the better WR rooms (provided they stay healthy). The Texans and Rams defenses both gave up more points than the Bills defense (and that was a down year for Buffalo). So, I see no reason why either of those two QBs couldn't still have at least 10 wins with this Bills roster. And if you think Stafford and Stroud were only average last year due to their WR injuries, well the next few guys on the list (ranking ~18-22, which would be slightly below average) and their 2024 records were: Jayden Daniels (12 wins), Caleb Williams (5 wins), Kirk Cousins (7 wins), Jordan Love (11 wins), and Jalen Hurts (14 wins). I still think most of those guys could get us to at least 9 wins. Last year, the Bills defense was 12th in points allowed. It was definitely a down year for the defense, but we should be much improved this season (imo). But, of the 7 QBs noted above, only 3 of their teams allowed fewer points than the Bills. So, our defense is stronger than most of those teams...meaning that would actually help at least 4 of those QBs to fare better in Buffalo---or at least it would even out if you think their WRs or whatever are better). But how many of those teams are overall more talented than the Bills, position-by-position? Philly and ...who? Plus McDermott took a much, much less-talented team with Tyrod Taylor as the QB (who I wouldn't even say was average) to 9 wins. Yes, it was an easier schedule than 2025 will be, but he was a first year head coach at the time and just look at the difference in overall talent between the 2017 team and the 2025 team. Our top receiver that year was Charles Clay with 558 yards. The receiving leaders in order of yards were: Clay, LeSean McCoy, Deonte Thompson, Nick O'Leary, Zay Jones, Jordan Matthews, Kelvin Benjamin, and Andre Holmes. I don't know about you, but Shakir, Palmer, Coleman, Moore, Samuel, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, Davis, Johnson, etc. looks a hell of a lot better than that 2017 mess. Yes, we had Shady, but our #2 RB was Mike Tolbert. How about Jordan Mills vs. Spencer Brown? Etc. Etc. Even on defense, a lot of the good players (Tre, Milano, Hyde, Poyer, Alexander) were rookies or in their first year with the Bills. And it was a new defense (and offense) for everyone. All new coaches, a new GM, no culture established yet, supposed star players jettisoned (Watkins, Dareus), etc. If he could make 9 wins with that mess, what's to say he couldn't do the same with a significantly better roster? Let's face it guys. The Bills are a very talented team beyond just Josh Allen. A quick look at a few 2025 O-line rankings had Bills as S-tier (elite), #2, #4, #8. Our RB room is top 5-7 in the league. Our TEs are above-average. In my opinion, this is easy a 9+ win team with or without Josh (as long as the QB play is at least league average). Now if you say we had to run the year with Trubisky...well, it would depend on if he played at league average or not. If he did, again, probably a 9- or 10-win team. If he stunk up the joint, yeah, we'd probably have a below .500 record, but that wouldn't be based on team talent, but on poor QB play. But, if the defense improves to a normal McDermott standard, even with poor-quarterbacking (provided it's not Peterman-esque 5 INTs/game) we would still at least be competitive in more than half of our games. And as others have said, what team that has a generational, future-HOF QB wouldn't see a drop-off if he were out. You can only really compare the situation to a Mahomes-, or Rodgers-type of player in their prime. The drop-off from many QBs to their backup will never be as significant as the drop-off from a HOF-type QB to his backup. And seriously, the Patriots with Matt Cassell is the exception to the rule, not the norm by any means. Cassel had 10 wins and 5 losses. He also had Belichick as his coach, with Randy Moss and Wes Welker as his top receivers, with a defense that allowed the 8th fewest points that year, on a team coming off an 18-1 year and a Super Bowl appearance (losing by 3 points to the Giants in the SB). So, looking at it that way, yes, the team still had 11 wins total in 2008 (Brady got 1 before being injured), but the drop-off from the previous year was still 7 or 8 games. A significant drop-off, despite 11-wins still being a decent season. Quote
Gunsgoodtime Posted 12 hours ago Posted 12 hours ago This roster is not hitting on much, I think about it often. It's Josh Allen and then it's all the other guys playing, no eliteness anywhere else on this roster. Quote
Peace Frog Posted 11 hours ago Posted 11 hours ago Without Josh, the Bills would have a perfect record. Quote
GoBills! Posted 10 hours ago Posted 10 hours ago don’t you put that negativity out there… only answer is we suck! 1 Quote
JaCrispy Posted 7 hours ago Posted 7 hours ago 8 or 9 wins sounds about right- it would basically be like the drought years, where we had talent everywhere but the QB position… Quote
AverageAllensSuspensor Posted 5 hours ago Posted 5 hours ago 9. Same as if Allen plays every down. Quote
GunnerBill Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago 39 minutes ago, AverageAllensSuspensor said: 9. Same as if Allen plays every down. Yea. 9 = 13. That's just MATH. Quote
JP51 Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago (edited) 23 hours ago, Bill from NYC said: With Trubisky as QB for the entire season, the Bills would certainly draft in the top ten, if not top 5. Jmo. Unless the Defense has some kind of resurrection that I am not envisioning... Definitely top 10... I would think about 6 wins would be my number... top 5 would have to be pretty disastrous. Edited 4 hours ago by JP51 1 Quote
FireChans Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago 9 hours ago, folz said: As far as how the Bills would fare without Josh, well you first have to define your terms. Is it if Josh got injured early and we had to play Trubisky all year? Or is it because Josh left Buffalo or was injured in the offseason and Beane had either, or both, free agency and the draft to replace him? The OP set the terms at average QB play. Well, last year, the most average QBs were Matthew Stafford and C.J. Stroud. Player Total Yards rank TDs rank INTs rank Stafford 17th 16th 16th most INTs Stroud 16th 17th 8th most INTs So, how would the Bills fare with average QB play? Well Stafford and Stroud both led their teams to 10 wins last year. No question, the Bills currently have a better RB room, TE room, and offensive line than the Texans or Rams. While the Texans and Rams have the better WR rooms (provided they stay healthy). The Texans and Rams defenses both gave up more points than the Bills defense (and that was a down year for Buffalo). So, I see no reason why either of those two QBs couldn't still have at least 10 wins with this Bills roster. And if you think Stafford and Stroud were only average last year due to their WR injuries, well the next few guys on the list (ranking ~18-22, which would be slightly below average) and their 2024 records were: Jayden Daniels (12 wins), Caleb Williams (5 wins), Kirk Cousins (7 wins), Jordan Love (11 wins), and Jalen Hurts (14 wins). I still think most of those guys could get us to at least 9 wins. Last year, the Bills defense was 12th in points allowed. It was definitely a down year for the defense, but we should be much improved this season (imo). But, of the 7 QBs noted above, only 3 of their teams allowed fewer points than the Bills. So, our defense is stronger than most of those teams...meaning that would actually help at least 4 of those QBs to fare better in Buffalo---or at least it would even out if you think their WRs or whatever are better). But how many of those teams are overall more talented than the Bills, position-by-position? Philly and ...who? Plus McDermott took a much, much less-talented team with Tyrod Taylor as the QB (who I wouldn't even say was average) to 9 wins. Yes, it was an easier schedule than 2025 will be, but he was a first year head coach at the time and just look at the difference in overall talent between the 2017 team and the 2025 team. Our top receiver that year was Charles Clay with 558 yards. The receiving leaders in order of yards were: Clay, LeSean McCoy, Deonte Thompson, Nick O'Leary, Zay Jones, Jordan Matthews, Kelvin Benjamin, and Andre Holmes. I don't know about you, but Shakir, Palmer, Coleman, Moore, Samuel, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, Davis, Johnson, etc. looks a hell of a lot better than that 2017 mess. Yes, we had Shady, but our #2 RB was Mike Tolbert. How about Jordan Mills vs. Spencer Brown? Etc. Etc. Even on defense, a lot of the good players (Tre, Milano, Hyde, Poyer, Alexander) were rookies or in their first year with the Bills. And it was a new defense (and offense) for everyone. All new coaches, a new GM, no culture established yet, supposed star players jettisoned (Watkins, Dareus), etc. If he could make 9 wins with that mess, what's to say he couldn't do the same with a significantly better roster? Let's face it guys. The Bills are a very talented team beyond just Josh Allen. A quick look at a few 2025 O-line rankings had Bills as S-tier (elite), #2, #4, #8. Our RB room is top 5-7 in the league. Our TEs are above-average. In my opinion, this is easy a 9+ win team with or without Josh (as long as the QB play is at least league average). Now if you say we had to run the year with Trubisky...well, it would depend on if he played at league average or not. If he did, again, probably a 9- or 10-win team. If he stunk up the joint, yeah, we'd probably have a below .500 record, but that wouldn't be based on team talent, but on poor QB play. But, if the defense improves to a normal McDermott standard, even with poor-quarterbacking (provided it's not Peterman-esque 5 INTs/game) we would still at least be competitive in more than half of our games. And as others have said, what team that has a generational, future-HOF QB wouldn't see a drop-off if he were out. You can only really compare the situation to a Mahomes-, or Rodgers-type of player in their prime. The drop-off from many QBs to their backup will never be as significant as the drop-off from a HOF-type QB to his backup. And seriously, the Patriots with Matt Cassell is the exception to the rule, not the norm by any means. Cassel had 10 wins and 5 losses. He also had Belichick as his coach, with Randy Moss and Wes Welker as his top receivers, with a defense that allowed the 8th fewest points that year, on a team coming off an 18-1 year and a Super Bowl appearance (losing by 3 points to the Giants in the SB). So, looking at it that way, yes, the team still had 11 wins total in 2008 (Brady got 1 before being injured), but the drop-off from the previous year was still 7 or 8 games. A significant drop-off, despite 11-wins still being a decent season. You lost me entirely on the defense. The 2024 Bills defense were 11th in points allowed and 17th in yards allowed, true. But on a per drive basis, they were horrific. 5th best starting position, but 25th in time allowed, 23rd in plays, 26th in yards allowed, 18th in points allowed. Along with a truly ghastly 3rd down % that was 29th in the league, and a RZ% that was bang on league average at 16th. The 2024 defense was a function of the offense shortening the game, playing more ball control, and thankfully, being so hyper-efficient in some blowouts that it made the defense just one of the worst in the league rather than THE worst in the league. And we all know who that was thanks to, the guy who won MVP for dragging that offense to those heights. Mack Hollins led the team in TDs. 4 win roster without Josh. 1 Quote
PromoTheRobot Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago You aren't getting many wins with Trubisky or White at QB. What the Bills need to do is start developing Josh-beta: a young backup that can play like and run a similar offense to Josh. Big, physical, mobile. Someone like Bryce Perkins. Quote
JP51 Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago 8 hours ago, folz said: As far as how the Bills would fare without Josh, well you first have to define your terms. Is it if Josh got injured early and we had to play Trubisky all year? Or is it because Josh left Buffalo or was injured in the offseason and Beane had either, or both, free agency and the draft to replace him? The OP set the terms at average QB play. Well, last year, the most average QBs were Matthew Stafford and C.J. Stroud. Player Total Yards rank TDs rank INTs rank Stafford 17th 16th 16th most INTs Stroud 16th 17th 8th most INTs So, how would the Bills fare with average QB play? Well Stafford and Stroud both led their teams to 10 wins last year. No question, the Bills currently have a better RB room, TE room, and offensive line than the Texans or Rams. While the Texans and Rams have the better WR rooms (provided they stay healthy). The Texans and Rams defenses both gave up more points than the Bills defense (and that was a down year for Buffalo). So, I see no reason why either of those two QBs couldn't still have at least 10 wins with this Bills roster. And if you think Stafford and Stroud were only average last year due to their WR injuries, well the next few guys on the list (ranking ~18-22, which would be slightly below average) and their 2024 records were: Jayden Daniels (12 wins), Caleb Williams (5 wins), Kirk Cousins (7 wins), Jordan Love (11 wins), and Jalen Hurts (14 wins). I still think most of those guys could get us to at least 9 wins. Last year, the Bills defense was 12th in points allowed. It was definitely a down year for the defense, but we should be much improved this season (imo). But, of the 7 QBs noted above, only 3 of their teams allowed fewer points than the Bills. So, our defense is stronger than most of those teams...meaning that would actually help at least 4 of those QBs to fare better in Buffalo---or at least it would even out if you think their WRs or whatever are better). But how many of those teams are overall more talented than the Bills, position-by-position? Philly and ...who? Plus McDermott took a much, much less-talented team with Tyrod Taylor as the QB (who I wouldn't even say was average) to 9 wins. Yes, it was an easier schedule than 2025 will be, but he was a first year head coach at the time and just look at the difference in overall talent between the 2017 team and the 2025 team. Our top receiver that year was Charles Clay with 558 yards. The receiving leaders in order of yards were: Clay, LeSean McCoy, Deonte Thompson, Nick O'Leary, Zay Jones, Jordan Matthews, Kelvin Benjamin, and Andre Holmes. I don't know about you, but Shakir, Palmer, Coleman, Moore, Samuel, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, Davis, Johnson, etc. looks a hell of a lot better than that 2017 mess. Yes, we had Shady, but our #2 RB was Mike Tolbert. How about Jordan Mills vs. Spencer Brown? Etc. Etc. Even on defense, a lot of the good players (Tre, Milano, Hyde, Poyer, Alexander) were rookies or in their first year with the Bills. And it was a new defense (and offense) for everyone. All new coaches, a new GM, no culture established yet, supposed star players jettisoned (Watkins, Dareus), etc. If he could make 9 wins with that mess, what's to say he couldn't do the same with a significantly better roster? Let's face it guys. The Bills are a very talented team beyond just Josh Allen. A quick look at a few 2025 O-line rankings had Bills as S-tier (elite), #2, #4, #8. Our RB room is top 5-7 in the league. Our TEs are above-average. In my opinion, this is easy a 9+ win team with or without Josh (as long as the QB play is at least league average). Now if you say we had to run the year with Trubisky...well, it would depend on if he played at league average or not. If he did, again, probably a 9- or 10-win team. If he stunk up the joint, yeah, we'd probably have a below .500 record, but that wouldn't be based on team talent, but on poor QB play. But, if the defense improves to a normal McDermott standard, even with poor-quarterbacking (provided it's not Peterman-esque 5 INTs/game) we would still at least be competitive in more than half of our games. And as others have said, what team that has a generational, future-HOF QB wouldn't see a drop-off if he were out. You can only really compare the situation to a Mahomes-, or Rodgers-type of player in their prime. The drop-off from many QBs to their backup will never be as significant as the drop-off from a HOF-type QB to his backup. And seriously, the Patriots with Matt Cassell is the exception to the rule, not the norm by any means. Cassel had 10 wins and 5 losses. He also had Belichick as his coach, with Randy Moss and Wes Welker as his top receivers, with a defense that allowed the 8th fewest points that year, on a team coming off an 18-1 year and a Super Bowl appearance (losing by 3 points to the Giants in the SB). So, looking at it that way, yes, the team still had 11 wins total in 2008 (Brady got 1 before being injured), but the drop-off from the previous year was still 7 or 8 games. A significant drop-off, despite 11-wins still being a decent season. Honestly, to your point if he played like an average QB in the league the situation isnt Armageddon but I just don't think that is realistic to expect him to play like a 15,16,17 type QB. Another major factor to me is that the defense was down right bad last year... unless it improves significantly this year I don't think a middling offense is going to win more than 6 games... so rankings etc aside... the Bills needed to score 21 points or more last year 11 times to win games (this included those that they lost) sometimes they needed over 40... (the average team scored 21/22 points last year... so to me the question would be how many times would the Bills score 21 points or more in a game with Mitch and crew...well, I just cant see him playing like a top 20 qb but lets set the bar at 21 points anyways... knowing that sometimes they would need more than 21... that slides us into the 20/21 spot in over all offense. Now, if our defense who gave up 21.6 points per game regresses without Josh, which I think it will (think about all those long time consuming drives that they had a seat last year and watched being replaced by a ton of 3 or 6 and outs...) I am not sure you get more than 6 or 7 wins overall... To me the Josh factor extends to both sides of the ball... so yes there were several quick strikes... but he made his money on long 5 minute beat you down drives... that to me adds up to bad things for a mediocre at best defense... now, with our additions does it get better, we will see... but going off of last year it doesnt look good to me. Now, to your point... what would KCs record be? Or Baltimore? etc... you lose a player of that caliber you got problems... they are the molding that covers all of the imperfections on your team... Lets hope we don't have to find out who is right here... just sayin.. 1 minute ago, FireChans said: You lost me entirely on the defense. The 2024 Bills defense were 11th in points allowed and 17th in yards allowed, true. But on a per drive basis, they were horrific. 5th best starting position, but 25th in time allowed, 23rd in plays, 26th in yards allowed, 18th in points allowed. Along with a truly ghastly 3rd down % that was 29th in the league, and a RZ% that was bang on league average at 16th. The 2024 defense was a function of the offense shortening the game, playing more ball control, and thankfully, being so hyper-efficient in some blowouts that it made the defense just one of the worst in the league rather than THE worst in the league. And we all know who that was thanks to, the guy who won MVP for dragging that offense to those heights. Mack Hollins led the team in TDs. 4 win roster without Josh. Just made the same point... what happens when those 5-7 minute beat down drives that Josh made a living off of turn into 3 and outs... Quote
FireChans Posted 3 hours ago Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, JP51 said: Honestly, to your point if he played like an average QB in the league the situation isnt Armageddon but I just don't think that is realistic to expect him to play like a 15,16,17 type QB. Another major factor to me is that the defense was down right bad last year... unless it improves significantly this year I don't think a middling offense is going to win more than 6 games... so rankings etc aside... the Bills needed to score 21 points or more last year 11 times to win games (this included those that they lost) sometimes they needed over 40... (the average team scored 21/22 points last year... so to me the question would be how many times would the Bills score 21 points or more in a game with Mitch and crew...well, I just cant see him playing like a top 20 qb but lets set the bar at 21 points anyways... knowing that sometimes they would need more than 21... that slides us into the 20/21 spot in over all offense. Now, if our defense who gave up 21.6 points per game regresses without Josh, which I think it will (think about all those long time consuming drives that they had a seat last year and watched being replaced by a ton of 3 or 6 and outs...) I am not sure you get more than 6 or 7 wins overall... To me the Josh factor extends to both sides of the ball... so yes there were several quick strikes... but he made his money on long 5 minute beat you down drives... that to me adds up to bad things for a mediocre at best defense... now, with our additions does it get better, we will see... but going off of last year it doesnt look good to me. Now, to your point... what would KCs record be? Or Baltimore? etc... you lose a player of that caliber you got problems... they are the molding that covers all of the imperfections on your team... Lets hope we don't have to find out who is right here... just sayin.. Just made the same point... what happens when those 5-7 minute beat down drives that Josh made a living off of turn into 3 and outs... Not even just that. The Bills offense was the best in the NFL in the turnover category. If they drop to top 10, which would still be very good, the defense would be even more horrific. The reason Josh won MVP is because he carried a lackluster offense and a bad defense to 13 wins. That is THE reason he won, with lesser stats than other QBs. 1 Quote
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted 3 hours ago Posted 3 hours ago On 6/16/2025 at 8:05 AM, ClemsonBills said: 8 or 9 is comical. There is one person responsible for keeping everyone employed at OBD Easy to say this today - but.... New Orleans Cleveland NYJx2 NEx2 MIAx2 (if allen gets hurt theres a high likelihood that tua is also hurt :-)) Atlanta Carolina Quote
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted 3 hours ago Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, FireChans said: You lost me entirely on the defense. The 2024 Bills defense were 11th in points allowed and 17th in yards allowed, true. But on a per drive basis, they were horrific. 5th best starting position, but 25th in time allowed, 23rd in plays, 26th in yards allowed, 18th in points allowed. Along with a truly ghastly 3rd down % that was 29th in the league, and a RZ% that was bang on league average at 16th. The 2024 defense was a function of the offense shortening the game, playing more ball control, and thankfully, being so hyper-efficient in some blowouts that it made the defense just one of the worst in the league rather than THE worst in the league. And we all know who that was thanks to, the guy who won MVP for dragging that offense to those heights. Mack Hollins led the team in TDs. 4 win roster without Josh. 1st in drives ending in a turnover %. 11th in drive scoring %. I don't think they were "horrific". Just mediocre with a pretty high variance due to turnovers. Lot of penalties too. Lot of new faces though so I'd assume McBeane recognized that need to get some impact players on defense. Quote
Gregg Posted 3 hours ago Posted 3 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said: Easy to say this today - but.... New Orleans Cleveland NYJx2 NEx2 MIAx2 (if allen gets hurt theres a high likelihood that tua is also hurt :-)) Atlanta Carolina 6-0 in the division is tough to do. Those rivalry games are usually close games. Even though the Bills are the best team in the division you can bet our rivals will get fired up for games against the Bills. Even when the Pats were a dynasty, they still had trouble sweeping the division. Games at Miami were their own personal house of horrors many of those years. Quote
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted 3 hours ago Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Gregg said: 6-0 in the division is tough to do. Those rivalry games are usually close games. Even though the Bills are the best team in the division you can bet our rivals will get fired up for games against the Bills. Even when the Pats were a dynasty, they still had trouble sweeping the division. Games at Miami were their own personal house of horrors many of those years. Of course - just saying there's a number of winnable games on the schedule. And that doesn't factor in potential injuries to other teams on the schedule either such as Rodgers with Pit, or Burrow with Cincy. 1 Quote
machine gun kelly Posted 32 minutes ago Posted 32 minutes ago On 6/16/2025 at 7:43 AM, BuffaloBillyG said: Same could be said about any other team with a top QB. Win totals would likely dip going from a top level QB to "average". So are all teams asking too much of their top level QB, or is it just the reality the QB play is the biggest aspect of wins and losses and going from amazing to average at the position is a huge drop? Agreed bud. Any of the top QB’s go down the team takes a hit. What is the Bengals without Burrow, Ravens without Lamar, the Chiefs without Mahomes, etc. Sure the Bills will take a hit, but another point is Josh has been the most durable QB in the league by far since 2018. He’s missed four games in the last 7 years. Twice as much as Mahomes and Burrow. Even Lamar has missed games. I understand the question, but most likely will not happen. Quote
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