RB and WR markets are actually insane.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

Yeah, they were right, and the Jags were wrong. They could have been wrong and the Jags right. NONE of them knew it at the time.

 

That doesn’t make the market any less wild for a guy with back to back 400 yard seasons. That’s Josh Palmer production.
 

FWIW, I liked Mooney as an offseason target, and thought he would be overlooked because of how putrid Justin Fields is, but he got the same deal that a twice as productive WR on a Super Bowl contender got. 
 

To me, that’s evidence the WR market is kinda nuts. Maybe you disagree. That’s cool

 

 

You say you're not relying on yards alone. Then when describing Palmer, that's precisely what you do, that and nothing else. "A guy with back to back 400 yard seasons. That's Josh Palmer production." And nothing else.

 

With only 61 and 65 targets, and on 75% and 65% of snaps there's an extremely good argument that they left a lot of his potential unused.

 

That could be wrong or it could be right, nobody knows. But it probably speaks less to the market than it does the Bills (and possibly other teams as well) evaluation of Palmer specifically. You're judging him - based directly on your own post - on past yards alone. Clearly the Bills are not. Again, doesn't mean this contract will look good down the line. That'll have to be seen.

Edited 15 hours ago by Thurman#1

[FireChans]

51 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Beane's drafted four running backs in the top three rounds since 2018.  So it's half of his drafts so far.  It's the best way to get value out of a RB as you're likely drafting a first/second round talent a full round later who will usually be more NFL ready than any other position.  He's already in his prime years physically and will shortly fall off a cliff after his first contract.  Go get your Cook replacement in the 2nd or 3rd round next year and hopefully get a comp pick for him.  Use the draft pick the same way as Cook and four years later wash, lither repeat.  I do agree that Beane should take more shots in both trading for possible #1 WR's and making it more of a priority each draft.

I feel like drafting a second or third round RB every other year is a horrific strategy.

 

Who would you rather have on a rookie contract? A top 15 running back or a top 30 WR?

6 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You say you're not relying on yards alone. Then when describing Palmer, that's precisely what you do, that and nothing else. "A guy with back to back 400 yard seasons. That's Josh Palmer production." And nothing else.

 

Which is wrong, first of all. He's got back to back 580 yard seasons. With only 61 and 65 targets, and on 75% and 65% of snaps there's an extremely good argument that they left a lot of his potential unused.

 

That could be wrong or it could be right, nobody knows. But it probably speaks less to the market than it does the Bills (and possibly other teams as well) evaluation of Palmer specifically. You're judging him - based directly on your own post - on past yards alone. Clearly the Bills are not. Again, doesn't mean this contract will look good down the line. That'll have to be seen.

I was talking about Mooney…. 

[Thurman#1]

31 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

I was talking about Mooney…. 

 

 

Ah, I see. Fair enough. My bad.

 

But again, maybe it's shorthand, but you're consistently referring to guys by their production alone even as you say you're not judging them that way. 

 

As Shaw pointed out, (in the two posts of this thread so far), the Bills are looking at how guys will fit our situation and what we want out of this offense.

 

Also, you pointed out, what seven or eight WR overpays above. Without going into the specifics of those or other contracts, over the same four or five years there are plenty of WR underpays and plenty of WRs who were well-valued. You'll fine that at any position, the old bell curve.

 

Edited 15 hours ago by Thurman#1

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Also, you pointed out, what seven or eight WR overpays above. Without going into the specifics of those or other contracts, over the same four or five years there are plenty of WR underpays and plenty of WRs who were well-valued. You'll fine that at any position, the old bell curve.

Yeah, those are the ones that significant contracts.

 

The problem with “any position” is that WR is quickly becoming the second highest paid position.

 

So an overpay or bad contract for a mid tier off-ball linebacker will hurt less than an overpay or bad contract for a mid tier WR.

 

That’s the point.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

What it means is that the Bills (and all other teams) should be loading up on receivers in every draft, because it’s an arbitrage opportunity - if any of them hit, you get guaranteed cheap labor at an expensive premium position.  And by the same token, they should stop wasting draft picks on RBs every year (except this one), because you can find decent options in the $1 CD bin.

 

 

That basically applies to all premium positions.  

 

The premium aka edge/island positions in the NFL today are:

 

QB

PassRush1

LT

WR1

CB1 (if system is man coverage because zone coverage is not playing on an island)

 

First and Second round for sure and subsequent mid-rounds if the evaluation is close......go premium.

 

This thread is talking about efficiency..........if you are going to be shopping in free agency you are most likely to get value from FA from the non-premium positions like Guard, Safety and RB.   The Bills have invested recent second rounders in all 3.   

 

 

[Doc Brown]

10 hours ago, FireChans said:

I feel like drafting a second or third round RB every other year is a horrific strategy.

 

Who would you rather have on a rookie contract? A top 15 running back or a top 30 WR?

I was talking about Mooney…. 

A top 15 RB because of the higher hit rate at the position alone, you can draft a 1st/2nd round prospect in the 3rd round, you get him in his peak physical years, and you don't have to worry about giving him a 2nd contract.

 

Edit:  I'm making the assumption that I don't know whether the pick will work out or not.

Edited 5 hours ago by Doc Brown

[Thurman#1]

31 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Yeah, those are the ones that significant contracts.

 

The problem with “any position” is that WR is quickly becoming the second highest paid position.

 

So an overpay or bad contract for a mid tier off-ball linebacker will hurt less than an overpay or bad contract for a mid tier WR.

 

That’s the point.

 

 

Well, if that's the point it's a bit off target.

 

The reason WRs are paid more is that they're more valuable to the team. It's that simple. More, while there are overpays at WR, there are also underpays and values that are right on target.

 

Overpays hurt regardless of position. 

 

You claimed that Harty was an overpay. Fair enough. That Harty contract hurt more than the Bears got hurt overpaying for Tremaine Edmunds because Harty is a WR and Edmunds isn't? Nonsense.

 

Each contract will hurt more or less based on a ton of factors, including performance, injuries, team fit, contract specifics and on and on and on. Position isn't particularly one of those factors.

 

The Bills have gotten plenty of good values at WR as well, John Brown, Manny Sanders, Cole Beasley, Mack Hollins, Amari Cooper and on and on. Diggs' 2022 extension was worth every penny.

 

And the success of the Bills offense, and team, speaks for itself on how well these tactics have worked.

 

 

Edited 14 hours ago by Thurman#1

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

The downside of the strategy you describe is that the Bills got middling returns on Devin Singletary and Zack Moss and it's too early to say how Ray Davis will pan out.

 

The James Cook pick appears to be a home run and if they let him walk, he'll more likely be replaced with another Singletary/Moss/Davis than another James Cook.

 

The argument implied by many here is that the Bills can get 90% of Cook's productivity at a fraction of the cost... but that 10% productivity loss might be the difference between a true weapon and just another solid back.

 

 

I don’t actually think Cook is as valuable as most here. His workload and usage doesn’t warrant a premium contract IMO. Over the last two seasons the Bills found the right usage. He broke down in 2023 and the Bills reduced his usage in 2024, which worked well. I have broken this down a couple times already but it equated to about 50% of snaps in competitive situations in 2024. By contrast, Barkley plays nearly 100% of snaps while games are competitive. 

 

His usage is probably even more important. Cook is a 1st and 2nd down player. He’s not on the field for obvious passing downs or for obvious running downs. No 3rd/4th and short. No goal to go from short either. He wasn’t on the field for 3rd downs or obvious passing downs because he’s only an okay receiver and he’s poor at pass protection. He’s also not on the field at the end of close games when we are running the ball to close it out. 

 

So what does Cook do well? 1st & 10 or 2nd and 5, he’s been really good. He's kept the load off of Allen and that certainly has value. But I dare say that there are a lot of RBs that could be effective in those situations with Allen at QB keeping defenses honest. And of all the high leverage situations on offense, Cook isn’t on the field for any of them. So I just don’t think a premium contract anywhere close to $15M AAV can be justified. 

 

In short, even if Cook does give us an extra 10% on plays (and that’s debatable) it’s got less value on the plays he’s in for than it would on the higher leverage ones that he’s on the bench for. 

Edited 14 hours ago by BarleyNY

[FireChans]

14 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Well, if that's the point it's a bit off target.

 

The reason WRs are paid more is that they're more valuable to the team. It's that simple. More, while there are overpays at WR, there are also underpays and values that are right on target.

 

Overpays hurt regardless of position. 

 

You claimed that Harty was an overpay. Fair enough. That Harty contract hurt more than the Bears got hurt overpaying for Tremaine Edmunds because Harty is a WR and Edmunds isn't? Nonsense.

 

Each contract will hurt more or less based on a ton of factors, including performance, injuries, team fit, contract specifics and on and on and on. Position isn't particularly one of those factors.

 

The Bills have gotten plenty of good values at WR as well, John Brown, Manny Sanders, Cole Beasley, Mack Hollins, Amari Cooper and on and on. Diggs' 2022 extension was worth every penny.

 

 

I’d like to see some supporting evidence that the dollar amount of WR overpays in FA over the last 3 seasons is equivalent to any other position sans QB.

 

the Beasley and Brown contracts were in 2019. The NFL has changed a bit since then.

Amari Cooper wasn’t a free agent.

 

Diggs didn’t play a snap on the extension given to him in 2022, are you being sarcastic that it was worth every penny?

[Bills Fan of St Augustine]

On 6/13/2025 at 2:23 PM, BarleyNY said:

 

You can’t ignore the market. That doesn’t mean that you can’t take advantage of inefficiencies though. I’m certainly not saying that. I think we agree that we overpaid for Palmer. The fact that we signed him day 1 of free agency should tell us that was likely the case. I agree that we should avoid moves like that.

 

Elijah Moore OTOH is a move I like a lot. Not because I think he’ll be an elite WR, but because we got him cheap and he has a chance to be far more productive than his contract would indicate. A major part of why we got that deal is because of Allen. Moore is willing to take less money to play with Allen so he has a better shot at a big payday next offseason. That’s the leverage we have and we should be taking better advantage of it.

 

Look at the trade deals the Patriots got on players when Brady was there. We should be going harder after quality players at discount rates when available too. We haven’t taken advantage of that either. 

 

As for the RB market, there are only a few players worth a big premium and we don’t have one of those. There’s no reason to overpay at that position unless we can get a Barkley or Henry type talent. 

Hard for me to say we overpaid on Palmer when he hasn't even been on the field yet. We also don't know who else was trying to sign him at the time.

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

A top 15 RB because of the higher hit rate at the position along, you can draft a 1st/2nd round prospect in the 3rd round, you get him in his peak physical years, and you don't have to worry about giving him a 2nd contract.

I’m not sure I get this logic.

 

Dont you want your second round picks to be players who are good and valuable enough to command massive extensions? 
 

This logic would suggest that James Cook, if he walks after this year, was a better draft pick than DK Metcalf.

[BillsFanForever19]

On 6/13/2025 at 10:38 AM, FireChans said:

I would also suggest the Bills should NEVER pay a WR anything ever. 

 

That's awkward bc we did just pay Joshua Palmer a 3 yr, 29m deal, with 18m guaranteed at signing...

[DCofNC]

On 6/13/2025 at 11:18 AM, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Gurley is a good example of the other piece of "value" being availability.  The contract went SO badly for them, that i think it caused some of the noted de-escalation in AAV.  Since running back is the most injury prone position, I would think the agent's are now putting a higher emphasis on % guaranteed vs. boosting the AAV. 

 

The cap % comparison will be important for the next batch of young players getting contracts, and honestly there's so many backs that I think every GM is in wait and see mode.  Next year free agents: Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Kyren Williams, James Cook, Brian Robinson, Isiah Pacheco, Travis Etienne, Rachaad White, Jaylen Warren, plus any cap dumps.  Bijan and Gibbs are coming up on extension elibibility, and they're the ones most likely to exceed Barkleys number.  Jonathan Taylor also needs an extension.  Should be interesting.  

that list of guys being available is exactly why Cook won’t get his wish. He’s not going to get paid big when there are lots of other options out there. 

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

I’m not sure I get this logic.

 

Dont you want your second round picks to be players who are good and valuable enough to command massive extensions? 
 

This logic would suggest that James Cook, if he walks after this year, was a better draft pick than DK Metcalf.

You're right.  The 2nd round is where you want to draft premium position players like Metcalf.  I think there's only about a 50% bust rate with WR in the 2nd round.  Here's hoping Coleman isn't one of those.  I was talking about more where we draft in the late 2nd.  I think we got Cook at 63 maybe?  Rounds 3 through 4 are fine too especially in a running back by committee approach like the Bills have.  We drafted Cook because of his speed and pass catching ability knowing we had Singletary/Moss that were more run between the tackle backs with some power.  You'd try and find another RB like that to compliment Davis and maybe even Ty Johnson if he sticks around.

[GASabresIUFan]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

But with respect to running back, I think it's quite clear that the Bills philosophy is that it is not wise to spend big dollars for a difference maker at that position. And that was my point in this thread - it isn't enough to say that Cook is worth x million dollars. He may be worth that in the market, but within the Bills system he is not.

I don't think this is an accurate statement.  The Bills have consistently failed to draft and develop difference makers at WR or RB under Beane.  That stems primarily from a significant failure to invest in those positions in the draft early in his Bills GM career.  

 

In Beane first 4 drafts with the Bills he spent 2 picks on RBs (both 3rds) and 5 picks on WRs (a 4th-Davis, 3 6ths, and a 7th). Is it really surprising that none of these players became difference makers?  Hard to have difference makers at the skill positions unless you invest in skill players with premium draft picks.

 

In the next 3 drafts Beane has utilized a 1st and 2 2nds on skill players (Coleman, Cook, and Kincaid).  The jury is still out on Coleman and Kincaid, but Cook is a bona fide star.  Cook is the first legit difference maker at a skill position the Beane drafted besides Josh Allen.  I really like Shakir, but he is just a slot receiver who catches the ball almost strictly underneath. (about 3 yards of AIR per catch)

 

Cook, on the other hand, has two consecutive 1000 Yards season on the ground with over 2800 yards from scrimmage.  The last Bill RB to have those kind of numbers was McCoy and the last Bills draftee to accomplish it for the Bills was McGahee 20 years ago.

 

The funny thing is that this board is ok with paying Shakir 13 mill a season for 4 years after creating 1400 of offense total the last two years with 6 Tds, while not wanting to give Cook a similar deal when he's created 2800 yards and 24 Tds.  Yes that's right, Cook and Shakir have the same number of receiving TDs the last 2 years.  

 

For all those who say it's the O Line that makes Cook good, why did Cook average 4.9 yards per carry last year and Davis (who had 100+ carries last season) averaged only 3.9 behind the same line?

 

The Bottom line is that we don't know what the Bills under Beane will do about investing in a RB because Cook is the first difference maker at the position we've had under Beane.

 

Edited 5 hours ago by GASabresIUFan

[ProcessTruster]

The NFL made a decision many years ago to protect WRs and QBs from getting mauled the way they had been mauled for decades.   

 

The NFL opened the doors to a passing league dominated by passing plays during a period when TV/Streaming contract prices accelerated upward.   

 

So the way to win is throwing the ball downfield, since the rules encourage it.    So QBs and WRs are way more valuable than RBs, and the contracts today show that.   

 

The numbers are so massive due to the salary cap, which is driven by what networks/streamers will pay to show NFL games, has increased dramatically recently.  

 

Its all pretty simple.   Load up on QBs and WRs , as they determine if you win or lose.  And you have the salary cap to pay up for them. 

 

RBs are good to have, but not essential to winning and losing.  

 

Is what it is.  

 

 

[FireChans]

56 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

You're right.  The 2nd round is where you want to draft premium position players like Metcalf.  I think there's only about a 50% bust rate with WR in the 2nd round.  Here's hoping Coleman isn't one of those.  I was talking about more where we draft in the late 2nd.  I think we got Cook at 63 maybe?  Rounds 3 through 4 are fine too especially in a running back by committee approach like the Bills have.  We drafted Cook because of his speed and pass catching ability knowing we had Singletary/Moss that were more run between the tackle backs with some power.  You'd try and find another RB like that to compliment Davis and maybe even Ty Johnson if he sticks around.

Here are the 2nd round WRs since 2016:

 

Sterling Shepard

Michael Thomas

Tyler Boyd

Zay Jones

Curtis Samuel

JuJu

Sutton

Dante Pettis

Christian Kirk

Anthony Miller

James Washington

DJ Chark

Deebo

AJ Brown

DK

Mecole Hardman

JJAW

Parris Campbell 

Andy Isabella

Higgins

Pittman

Shenault

Hamler

Claypool

Van Jefferson

Elijah Moore

Rondale Moore

Eskridge

Atwell

Marshall

Watson

Robinson 

Metchie

Thornton

Pickens

Pierce

Moore

Mingo

Reed

Rice

Mims

 

now depending on your definition of bust, the rate may be 50% it’s hard to say. But some of the guys we may consider overall busts like Claypool had a productive season or 2 before washing out.

 

FWIW, DK was pick 64

[Doc Brown]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Here are the 2nd round WRs since 2016:

 

Sterling Shepard

Michael Thomas

Tyler Boyd

Zay Jones

Curtis Samuel

JuJu

Sutton

Dante Pettis

Christian Kirk

Anthony Miller

James Washington

DJ Chark

Deebo

AJ Brown

DK

Mecole Hardman

JJAW

Parris Campbell 

Andy Isabella

Higgins

Pittman

Shenault

Hamler

Claypool

Van Jefferson

Elijah Moore

Rondale Moore

Eskridge

Atwell

Marshall

Watson

Robinson 

Metchie

Thornton

Pickens

Pierce

Moore

Mingo

Reed

Rice

Mims

 

now depending on your definition of bust, the rate may be 50% it’s hard to say. But some of the guys we may consider overall busts like Claypool had a productive season or 2 before washing out.

 

FWIW, DK was pick 64

What's funny about Metcalf is the amount of people on here that were like DRAFT THIS FREAK SHOW.  We take fricken Cody Ford. It's pry the only WR I can remember this board pounding the table for that hard in the 2nd round.  The hit/bust rate is subjective and feel free to find any good studies.

 

PFF has the toughest criteria I've seen if interested in reading.  A drafted player is considered a “hit” if his snap percentage over the first four seasons reaches at least 2/3rds of the baseline for a full-time starter at his position from 2006 to 2021.

 

Round 1:  WR hit rate - 56.9%, -3.8% relative to pick expectation.

                RB hit rate - 60.6%, +0.1% relative to pick expectation.

 

Round 2:  WR hit rate - 26.3%, -3.1% relative to pick expectation.

                 RB hit rate - 35.3%, - +6.4% relative to pick expectation.

 

If you base it on pure starts it gets complicated because of the running back by committee approach but it's a better indication of WR success in the 2nd round.  This is an older study looking at just starts from draft picks where they started at least half of the games in their career from 2005 until 2014.

 

WR's The first round success rate is 58% and the second round is almost as good at 49%.

 

[Buffalo716]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That basically applies to all premium positions.  

 

The premium aka edge/island positions in the NFL today are:

 

QB

PassRush1

LT

WR1

CB1 (if system is man coverage because zone coverage is not playing on an island)

 

First and Second round for sure and subsequent mid-rounds if the evaluation is close......go premium.

 

This thread is talking about efficiency..........if you are going to be shopping in free agency you are most likely to get value from FA from the non-premium positions like Guard, Safety and RB.   The Bills have invested recent second rounders in all 3.   

 

 

Even the difference between a heavy man and a heavy zone covered scheme is not that much 

 

You're not talking 80% man 20% zone.. 20% zone 80% man 

 

Sean McDermott is one of the heaviest zone users in the NFL and we still play Man almost 40% of the time... And it jumps up significantly on third down 

 

No team in the NFL could survive playing 75% of zone or man coverage across the board all game any day.. when the game gets tighter Sean McDermott  starts calling tighter man

 

When it's third down and he needs a stop he's going cover one man

Edited 6 hours ago by Buffalo716

[Mister Defense]

On 6/13/2025 at 10:38 AM, FireChans said:

I would also suggest the Bills should NEVER pay a WR anything ever. There is no point in playing in a market where JAGs or good players are having their value this inflated. I don't know where the WR carousel ends, but I don't want to be on it when it does.

 

But didn't you say almost the same exact thing about running backs a few months ago, that teams should 'NEVER pay a running back'? I thought it was you, but I may be mistaken.  I thought you had said it was your rule, and never means never.

 

If so, you are now saying the same thing, but about wide receivers? Just moving on to another position group?  But here, it seems even more extreme   As here you say "you should NEVER pay a wide receiver anything ever". 

 

I think it would be very difficult in today's NFL to play without any wide receivers at all.  Yeah, running backs catch balls, and the Bills have two good tight ends, but I think it would put the Bills at a significant disadvantage if they did not have wide receivers on their team.

 

But I do agree with your point that the Bills should now pay Cook, and am happy that, at least on this change of heart on running backs, you have come to your senses. And our team's QB seemed to agree with that in his mini-camp conference, which is important.

 

 

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Mister Defense