RB and WR markets are actually insane.

[FireChans]

There's some market inefficiencies to take advantage of here.

 

First, let's set the stage:

 

In 2018, the salary cap was 177M. In 2025, its 279M.

 

In 2018, one of the best RB's of his era, Todd Gurley, who was second in MVP voting signed a massive extension.

 

That extension was 4 years for 57M.  An AAV of of $14M. 21M guaranteed at signing (with more guarantees later if he made the team). A record setting contract.

 

Those numbers, TODAY, would make him the 4th highest paid running back in the league. So when we are talking about a Cook extension, and how that fits in the salary cap, just remember, he is asking for a little more than 2018 Todd Gurley money with a $100M more in salary cap space.

 

Now, of course, other contracts have been inflated. QBs make more than ever. WR's make more than ever.

 

Odell Beckham set the WR market in 2018. He signed a 5 year, 95M deal, with 18M AAV and 41M in GTD.

 

in 2025, that would make him tied for the 20th highest paid WR, right next to Christian Kirk (who inked his deal in 2022). The guarantees are even close, with Kirk getting $37M over 4 years of his deal.

 

So what conclusions can we draw from this?

 

Nothing that we didn't already know. The NFL at large has decided that running backs aren't valuable and that WR's are crazy valuable.

 

However, I would argue that this points to a strategy to take advantage of NFL decision-making at large. In a league where there is 1 winner and 31 losers, you don't want to follow the pack. 

 

I suggest the Bills SHOULD meet Cook in the middle if he would take $15M AAV.  We don't have a WR worth $30M. We aren't sure we ever will, and we aren't sure that we would pay them even if we did.

 

I would also suggest the Bills should NEVER pay a WR anything ever. There is no point in playing in a market where JAGs or good players are having their value this inflated. I don't know where the WR carousel ends, but I don't want to be on it when it does. 

 

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Sorry.  Thought it was the AB thread.  That's one down the list. 🙁

[Mr. WEO]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

There's some market inefficiencies to take advantage of here.

 

First, let's set the stage:

 

In 2018, the salary cap was 177M. In 2025, its 279M.

 

In 2018, one of the best RB's of his era, Todd Gurley, who was second in MVP voting signed a massive extension.

 

That extension was 4 years for 57M.  An AAV of of $14M. 21M guaranteed at signing (with more guarantees later if he made the team). A record setting contract.

 

Those numbers, TODAY, would make him the 4th highest paid running back in the league. So when we are talking about a Cook extension, and how that fits in the salary cap, just remember, he is asking for a little more than 2018 Todd Gurley money with a $100M more in salary cap space.

 

Now, of course, other contracts have been inflated. QBs make more than ever. WR's make more than ever.

 

Odell Beckham set the WR market in 2018. He signed a 5 year, 95M deal, with 18M AAV and 41M in GTD.

 

in 2025, that would make him tied for the 20th highest paid WR, right next to Christian Kirk (who inked his deal in 2022). The guarantees are even close, with Kirk getting $37M over 4 years of his deal.

 

So what conclusions can we draw from this?

 

Nothing that we didn't already know. The NFL at large has decided that running backs aren't valuable and that WR's are crazy valuable.

 

However, I would argue that this points to a strategy to take advantage of NFL decision-making at large. In a league where there is 1 winner and 31 losers, you don't want to follow the pack. 

 

I suggest the Bills SHOULD meet Cook in the middle if he would take $15M AAV.  We don't have a WR worth $30M. We aren't sure we ever will, and we aren't sure that we would pay them even if we did.

 

I would also suggest the Bills should NEVER pay a WR anything ever. There is no point in playing in a market where JAGs or good players are having their value this inflated. I don't know where the WR carousel ends, but I don't want to be on it when it does. 

 

 

 

 

 

while it's true that RBs share of the cap has not kept pace with the increase in cap, WRs AAV has.

 

OBJ's AAV was 10.1% of the 2018 cap.  30 million AAV for today's WR is 10.7% of the cap.  No inflation there, just keeping pace.

 

 

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 

while it's true that RBs share of the cap has not kept pace with the increase in cap, WRs AAV has.

 

OBJ's AAV was 10.1% of the 2018 cap.  30 million AAV for today's WR is 10.7% of the cap.  No inflation there, just keeping pace.

 

 

 

OBJ was the market setting contract though.

 

A better comparison would be Chase's contract, which is 40M AAV.  All the way up to 14% of the cap. 

[Mr. WEO]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

OBJ was the market setting contract though.

 

A better comparison would be Chase's contract, which is 40M AAV.  All the way up to 14% of the cap. 

 

That's 1 NFL WR making that.  Only 5 guys over 30M.  

 

Despite "setting the market" at 40 million, the next highest 2025 contracts were 33M (Metcalf), 28.7 (Higgins), 22M (Adams), etc.  Right now Chase is an outlier, like Barkley--who "reset the RB market" (so I read here) at 20M (7% of cap).  No other RB has gotten close to that in new (2025) contracts.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

18 minutes ago, FireChans said:

There's some market inefficiencies to take advantage of here.

 

First, let's set the stage:

 

In 2018, the salary cap was 177M. In 2025, its 279M.

 

In 2018, one of the best RB's of his era, Todd Gurley, who was second in MVP voting signed a massive extension.

 

That extension was 4 years for 57M.  An AAV of of $14M. 21M guaranteed at signing (with more guarantees later if he made the team). A record setting contract.

 

Those numbers, TODAY, would make him the 4th highest paid running back in the league. So when we are talking about a Cook extension, and how that fits in the salary cap, just remember, he is asking for a little more than 2018 Todd Gurley money with a $100M more in salary cap space.

 

Now, of course, other contracts have been inflated. QBs make more than ever. WR's make more than ever.

 

Odell Beckham set the WR market in 2018. He signed a 5 year, 95M deal, with 18M AAV and 41M in GTD.

 

in 2025, that would make him tied for the 20th highest paid WR, right next to Christian Kirk (who inked his deal in 2022). The guarantees are even close, with Kirk getting $37M over 4 years of his deal.

 

So what conclusions can we draw from this?

 

Nothing that we didn't already know. The NFL at large has decided that running backs aren't valuable and that WR's are crazy valuable.

 

However, I would argue that this points to a strategy to take advantage of NFL decision-making at large. In a league where there is 1 winner and 31 losers, you don't want to follow the pack. 

 

I suggest the Bills SHOULD meet Cook in the middle if he would take $15M AAV.  We don't have a WR worth $30M. We aren't sure we ever will, and we aren't sure that we would pay them even if we did.

 

I would also suggest the Bills should NEVER pay a WR anything ever. There is no point in playing in a market where JAGs or good players are having their value this inflated. I don't know where the WR carousel ends, but I don't want to be on it when it does. 

 

 

 

Gurley is a good example of the other piece of "value" being availability.  The contract went SO badly for them, that i think it caused some of the noted de-escalation in AAV.  Since running back is the most injury prone position, I would think the agent's are now putting a higher emphasis on % guaranteed vs. boosting the AAV. 

 

The cap % comparison will be important for the next batch of young players getting contracts, and honestly there's so many backs that I think every GM is in wait and see mode.  Next year free agents: Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Kyren Williams, James Cook, Brian Robinson, Isiah Pacheco, Travis Etienne, Rachaad White, Jaylen Warren, plus any cap dumps.  Bijan and Gibbs are coming up on extension elibibility, and they're the ones most likely to exceed Barkleys number.  Jonathan Taylor also needs an extension.  Should be interesting.  

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

That's 1 NFL WR making that.  Only 5 guys over 30M.  

 

Despite "setting the market" at 40 million, the next highest 2025 contracts were 33M (Metcalf), 28.7 (Higgins), 22M (Adams), etc.  Right now Chase is an outlier, like Barkley--who "reset the RB market" (so I read here) at 20M (7% of cap).  No other RB has gotten close to that in new (2025) contracts.

There was 1 NFL WR making what OBJ made in 2018. His name was OBJ.

 

You made an apples to oranges comparison to prove WR inflation wasn't real. You were wrong.  The highest paid WR in 2018 made 10% of the cap. The highest paid WR in 2025 made 14%. 

 

The top 5 WR's in 2018 by AAV made an average of 9% of the salary cap

 

The top 5 WR's in 2025 by AAV make an average of 12% of the salary cap.

11 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Gurley is a good example of the other piece of "value" being availability.  The contract went SO badly for them, that i think it caused some of the noted de-escalation in AAV.  Since running back is the most injury prone position, I would think the agent's are now putting a higher emphasis on % guaranteed vs. boosting the AAV. 

 

The cap % comparison will be important for the next batch of young players getting contracts, and honestly there's so many backs that I think every GM is in wait and see mode.  Next year free agents: Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Kyren Williams, James Cook, Brian Robinson, Isiah Pacheco, Travis Etienne, Rachaad White, Jaylen Warren, plus any cap dumps.  Bijan and Gibbs are coming up on extension elibibility, and they're the ones most likely to exceed Barkleys number.  Jonathan Taylor also needs an extension.  Should be interesting.  

That's the other issue with RB's. 

 

How many pretty good backs are on that list? 

 

It's hard to compete in a market flooded with supply. 

[Paup 1995MVP]

56 minutes ago, FireChans said:

There's some market inefficiencies to take advantage of here.

 

First, let's set the stage:

 

In 2018, the salary cap was 177M. In 2025, its 279M.

 

In 2018, one of the best RB's of his era, Todd Gurley, who was second in MVP voting signed a massive extension.

 

That extension was 4 years for 57M.  An AAV of of $14M. 21M guaranteed at signing (with more guarantees later if he made the team). A record setting contract.

 

Those numbers, TODAY, would make him the 4th highest paid running back in the league. So when we are talking about a Cook extension, and how that fits in the salary cap, just remember, he is asking for a little more than 2018 Todd Gurley money with a $100M more in salary cap space.

 

Now, of course, other contracts have been inflated. QBs make more than ever. WR's make more than ever.

 

Odell Beckham set the WR market in 2018. He signed a 5 year, 95M deal, with 18M AAV and 41M in GTD.

 

in 2025, that would make him tied for the 20th highest paid WR, right next to Christian Kirk (who inked his deal in 2022). The guarantees are even close, with Kirk getting $37M over 4 years of his deal.

 

So what conclusions can we draw from this?

 

Nothing that we didn't already know. The NFL at large has decided that running backs aren't valuable and that WR's are crazy valuable.

 

However, I would argue that this points to a strategy to take advantage of NFL decision-making at large. In a league where there is 1 winner and 31 losers, you don't want to follow the pack. 

 

I suggest the Bills SHOULD meet Cook in the middle if he would take $15M AAV.  We don't have a WR worth $30M. We aren't sure we ever will, and we aren't sure that we would pay them even if we did.

 

I would also suggest the Bills should NEVER pay a WR anything ever. There is no point in playing in a market where JAGs or good players are having their value this inflated. I don't know where the WR carousel ends, but I don't want to be on it when it does. 

 

 

Way too much talk about the salary cap on this message board instead of talking football players and teams.  That being said:

 

Todd Gurley had so much promise coming out of Georgia, but Degenerative knee issues ruined his career.  The message there is to be real careful who you invest big money in.  There are a LOT of solid RB's in the NFL.  And James Cook falls into that category.  He is reasonably dynamic, but certainly not a unicorn in his abilities.  He is worth an extension, at a reasonable price.  If he will take $10 mill per for a 3 year extension, sounds about right.  Otherwise, let him play out his contract, and test the market.  Exactly like Tremaine Edmunds.  And Gabe Davis.  Beane knows what he is doing with contracts.  I do not see an issue replacing Cook if and when the time comes.

 

More important than overpaying an RB, is having a very good O line that most RB's will have success running behind.  Beane needs to spend the bigger dollars on resigning Connor McGovern to anchor our O line for the next 5 years.  I think that is the best use of resources then overpaying James Cook or any other RB.

[gjv]

I believe we are starting to see the run game become more prominent. Unless all the teams believe all running backs are relatively equal, we will begin to see running back contracts become more lucrative. 

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Way too much talk about the salary cap on this message board instead of talking football players and teams.  That being said:

 

Todd Gurley had so much promise coming out of Georgia, but Degenerative knee issues ruined his career.  The message there is to be real careful who you invest big money in.  There are a LOT of solid RB's in the NFL.  And James Cook falls into that category.  He is reasonably dynamic, but certainly not a unicorn in his abilities.  He is worth an extension, at a reasonable price.  If he will take $10 mill per for a 3 year extension, sounds about right.  Otherwise, let him play out his contract, and test the market.  Exactly like Tremaine Edmunds.  And Gabe Davis.  Beane knows what he is doing with contracts.  I do not see an issue replacing Cook if and when the time comes.

 

More important than overpaying an RB, is having a very good O line that most RB's will have success running behind.  Beane needs to spend the bigger dollars on resigning Connor McGovern to anchor our O line for the next 5 years.  I think that is the best use of resources then overpaying James Cook or any other RB.

???

 

The salary cap is the driver of just about every major decision made by a football team.

 

Having to eat Diggs cap hit is why our starting WR's last year were Mack Hollins and a second round rookie.

 

The decision to pay or not pay James Cook is 100% solely based on the salary cap.

 

You can't just ignore it. No teams do.

[Paup 1995MVP]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

???

 

The salary cap is the driver of just about every major decision made by a football team.

 

Having to eat Diggs cap hit is why our starting WR's last year were Mack Hollins and a second round rookie.

 

The decision to pay or not pay James Cook is 100% solely based on the salary cap.

 

You can't just ignore it. No teams do.

Of course you can not ignore the salary cap.  I was just saying that the game-meaning players and teams is more interesting to me is all.

 

And disagree big time about Cook.  The Bills don't value a RB at $15 mill/year.  Salary cap is only a small part of the story.  Its the same as paying a middle reliever in baseball.  You aren't paying them $15 mill/year with or without a salary cap.  Because they aren't worth anywhere near that money.  

[Matt_In_NH]

I think analytics has mostly proven that by the time RB's are ready to get paid, they are expected to nose dive in production.  There are exceptions, the Ravens did a great job in idenitifying that last yeat.

[Steve Billieve]

You say "market inefficiency" but how do you know you're not seeing market and analytics efficiency?

 

You can't pay top dollar at every position. There are absolutely running backs that can single-handedly take over a game. Do you honestly believe Cook is one of them?

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, Steve Billieve said:

You say "market inefficiency" but how do you know you're not seeing market and analytics efficiency?

 

You can't pay top dollar at every position. There are absolutely running backs that can single-handedly take over a game. Do you honestly believe Cook is one of them?

That’s a good point.

 

My counter would be that I believe there has been over correction in the market. So while I agree that you can’t pay top dollar at every position, I would ask what positions on offense do you think we are paying top dollar at? 
 

Josh. Our OTs. That’s it.

 

suffice it to say, at this point, I think there’s better value in paying Cook over a Josh Palmer or Gabe Davis tier free agent. And I think the Bills get a competitive edge over a league that is throwing money hand over fist at guys like that by recognizing it first.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

 

However, I would argue that this points to a strategy to take advantage of NFL decision-making at large. In a league where there is 1 winner and 31 losers, you don't want to follow the pack. 

 

I suggest the Bills SHOULD meet Cook in the middle if he would take $15M AAV.  We don't have a WR worth $30M. We aren't sure we ever will, and we aren't sure that we would pay them even if we did.

 

I would also suggest the Bills should NEVER pay a WR anything ever. There is no point in playing in a market where JAGs or good players are having their value this inflated. I don't know where the WR carousel ends, but I don't want to be on it when it does. 

 

 

 

 

So, we don't want to follow the pack? Instead, we want to pay more than we have to?

 

Yeah, when it comes to contracts, going out of your way to not follow the pack by overpaying? Count me out.

 

I get you're playing around some here. The last sentence shows that. Not clear exactly what you're trying to say about receivers there. But you seem to be somewhat serious about overpaying being a good strategy because it's zigging when they're zagging. Me? No, thanks.

 

 

40 minutes ago, Steve Billieve said:

You say "market inefficiency" but how do you know you're not seeing market and analytics efficiency?

 

You can't pay top dollar at every position. There are absolutely running backs that can single-handedly take over a game. Do you honestly believe Cook is one of them?

 

 

This. He's right that the values are changing. It's likely that's due to the effect of analytics and smarter decision-making. 

 

As Matt_in_NH pointed out, analytics tends to show that RBs have shorter shelf lives. And fewer snaps than WRs. And a lot more production in terms of yards and TDs per touch.

 

If we pay Cook around $11M or so, we'd be making him the 7th highest paid in AAV. 7th? That's about right, I think. Second contracts often rank a guy higher than his actual value. But not contracts given a year early, generally. The player has to give up a bit for the early payday. And early paydays are even more valuable to RBs than most positions.

 

I think you're right that this is market efficiency we're seeing.

 

 

Edited 16 hours ago by Thurman#1

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

There's some market inefficiencies to take advantage of here.

 

First, let's set the stage:

 

In 2018, the salary cap was 177M. In 2025, its 279M.

 

In 2018, one of the best RB's of his era, Todd Gurley, who was second in MVP voting signed a massive extension.

 

That extension was 4 years for 57M.  An AAV of of $14M. 21M guaranteed at signing (with more guarantees later if he made the team). A record setting contract.

 

Those numbers, TODAY, would make him the 4th highest paid running back in the league. So when we are talking about a Cook extension, and how that fits in the salary cap, just remember, he is asking for a little more than 2018 Todd Gurley money with a $100M more in salary cap space.

 

Now, of course, other contracts have been inflated. QBs make more than ever. WR's make more than ever.

 

Odell Beckham set the WR market in 2018. He signed a 5 year, 95M deal, with 18M AAV and 41M in GTD.

 

in 2025, that would make him tied for the 20th highest paid WR, right next to Christian Kirk (who inked his deal in 2022). The guarantees are even close, with Kirk getting $37M over 4 years of his deal.

 

So what conclusions can we draw from this?

 

Nothing that we didn't already know. The NFL at large has decided that running backs aren't valuable and that WR's are crazy valuable.

 

However, I would argue that this points to a strategy to take advantage of NFL decision-making at large. In a league where there is 1 winner and 31 losers, you don't want to follow the pack. 

 

I suggest the Bills SHOULD meet Cook in the middle if he would take $15M AAV.  We don't have a WR worth $30M. We aren't sure we ever will, and we aren't sure that we would pay them even if we did.

 

I would also suggest the Bills should NEVER pay a WR anything ever. There is no point in playing in a market where JAGs or good players are having their value this inflated. I don't know where the WR carousel ends, but I don't want to be on it when it does. 

 

 

 

 

 

What you aren't accounting for is that James Cook is not an every down RB like Todd Gurley was.

 

If he were an 825 snap RB like Gurley in 2018 instead of the 485 snap guy like Cook in 2024 then there *might* be an argument to be made.

 

But in the same way that if your aunt had balls she'd be your uncle sorta *might*.

 

Because that's not who Cook can be at this point.

 

Here are the numbers:

 

Gurley had exactly 1.7x the usage.

 

The cap has gone up 1.58x since 2018.

 

So $14M would be worth $8.25M of 2018 cap dollars at the mere 48% of snaps that Cook played.

 

The snaps matter.   Being able to keep Gurley in on the most important down was a huge benefit to the offense.   He caught a bunch of passes at about a 10 yard per clip rate and was a tremendous pass blocker.

 

That $8.25M figure that Gurley's snap adjusted contract would equate to is $13M today.

 

So basically.........at $15M you would be paying Cook considerably more than 1st team All-Pro Gurley was earning on a per snap/adjusted cap basis.

 

And that deal turned out to be a big failure for the Rams.

 

You can hope to keep getting a rookie and cheap vet to handle the other 50% of snaps but if you are going to do that........let "everybody eat" at RB instead of paying one 8-10x more than the other two.

 

 

Edited 15 hours ago by BADOLBILZ

[Mikey152]

I think James Cook is what makes this a hard decision.

 

On one hand, I’d say that his relatively light load in college and the NFL makes him a decent investment as far as availability goes.

 

conversely, that same low usage also speaks to whether or not he offers enough value above replacement to deserve the contract he is looking for.

 

i think it is a rare case among running backs where fans/the bills don’t want to pay him not because there is concern he will wear down, but more so because his production is likely replaceable for less money.

 

to put it plainly, I think most people on this board feel like ray davis plus a 30 mil receiver like DK is better than Palmer + Cook. 
 

im not saying that was an option, but as far as allocating resources are concerned, There seems to be a disconnect between James Cooks production and his impact (relative to someone else getting his snaps)

Edited 15 hours ago by Mikey152

[MJS]

How did Gurley work out for them? He was out of the league after 2020 and a couple of lackluster years. That's the problem with paying running backs.

Edited 15 hours ago by MJS

[BADOLBILZ]

34 minutes ago, FireChans said:

suffice it to say, at this point, I think there’s better value in paying Cook over a Josh Palmer or Gabe Davis tier free agent. And I think the Bills get a competitive edge over a league that is throwing money hand over fist at guys like that by recognizing it first.

 

 

Honestly,  I think you've really overthought it.

 

It's deep in the offseason.

 

The logic reminds me of the year Levy took over as GM and he signed 15 scrub free agents because he said that the Patriots success with inexpensive role players was going to be the new standard of team building.

 

The Patriots were an outlier.   No level of injury prevented the Patriots from executing their plans.    Because it turned out that knowing the opposing play calls before the snap really elevated the level of play.     WR Troy Brown could even play CB when he knew exactly what route his opponent was running.

 

They faked it til they made it and just before they got caught they loaded their roster.

 

And Levy was left with a bunch of overpaid trash.

[FireChans]

35 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

So, we don't want to follow the pack? Instead, we want to pay more than we have to?

 

Yeah, when it comes to contracts, going out of your way to not follow the pack by overpaying? Count me out.

 

I get you're playing around some here. The last sentence shows that. Not clear exactly what you're trying to say about receivers there. But you seem to be somewhat serious about overpaying being a good strategy because it's zigging when they're zagging. Me? No, thanks

The point is not overpaying for WR's, where there is imo massive inflation for actual value, and instead using that money elsewhere where we can take advantage of an undervalued position.

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

How did Gurley work out for them? That's the problem with paying running backs.

Better than paying Gabe Davis worked out for the Jags.