ISRAEL V IRAN: Trump just warned everyone should evacuate Tehran

[Doc]

30 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Saw that. In my assessment markets are completely mis-pricing risk. The traditional pattern of behavior is panic for a day or two then assume a return to normal. That's why buy the dip has been so profitable.

 

Israel has vowed the Iranian nuclear program must be eliminated. But what they can't do is effectively attack and destroy underground facilities. They lack the heavy bomber aircraft to deliver the bunker buster bombs necessary. They've been attempting to convince the US to launch such attacks. So far the administration has said "no".

 

If you saw the interview with Netanyahu among other things (saying Iran was behind the 2 assassination attempts on Trump), he made it sound like Israel either has bunker busters or another way to accomplish it.

[Doc]

 

19 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

My guess is that Iran is stalling.  Israel has control of the skies.  Iran wants to protect what it has, rebuild air defenses, and then restart nuke work.  Only now, after this episode, they’re more desperate to finish it. 

 

I think they've seen what Israel can and is willing to do.  They're even calling on SA and Qatar to get Israel to stop bombing them.

[SectionC3]

22 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

 

I think they've seen what Israel can and is willing to do.  They're even calling on SA and Qatar to get Israel to stop bombing them.

We agree.  Israel’s putting the wood to them.  So they want to stall, reload, and start again. 

[Big Blitz]

Stocks up over 400 points. 
 

Yea there might be belief Iran is coming to the table.  

[US Egg]

 

 

[Doc]

34 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

We agree.  Israel’s putting the wood to them.  So they want to stall, reload, and start again. 

 

We disagree about this part but we'll see.

[sherpa]

1 hour ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Saw that. In my assessment markets are completely mis-pricing risk. The traditional pattern of behavior is panic for a day or two then assume a return to normal. That's why buy the dip has been so profitable.

 

Israel has vowed the Iranian nuclear program must be eliminated. But what they can't do is effectively attack and destroy underground facilities. They lack the heavy bomber aircraft to deliver the bunker buster bombs necessary. They've been attempting to convince the US to launch such attacks. So far the administration has said "no".

Maybe not.

Iran's chief customer is China. Disrupt oil supplies through the Gulf and you really screw one of your few allies.

Further, screwing with the Strait of Hormuz has not worked well for them and guarantees US involvement immediately, which they clearly don't desire.

There's plenty of supply, and Saudi Arabia and OPEC would be more than willing to boost production.

As well, oil is Iran's near only money making export, so they'd be hurting themselves.

The IRGC made a fortune smuggling oil during sanctions.

 

On the underground stuff, I don't think Israel has the ability to destroy those from the air, but I expect that with the absolute shocking display on intel capability inside Iran on the ground, they may be able to have a significant impact via espionage.

 

Different subject, but it is pure idiocy to suggest that the Sect. of Defense is in any way responsible for a towing mishap when the Truman executed an extremely aggressive turn while the process was underway, and the other one didn't "fall off," it was an arrested landing mishap, probably a wire failure from the ship, or a hook failure on the Hornet.

 

1 hour ago, SectionC3 said:

My guess is that Iran is stalling.  Israel has control of the skies.  Iran wants to protect what it has, rebuild air defenses, and then restart nuke work.  Only now, after this episode, they’re more desperate to finish it. 

 

You think they're stalling?

My guess is they have no leadership left and don't even know who is dead yet.

Edited Monday at 03:47 PM by sherpa

[The Frankish Reich]

Iran is (was? I hope we can say that now) uniquely dangerous because it does have an educated and competent society running in parallel with a crazed theocratic leadership. But I don't think anyone knows what happens if that theocracy is destroyed. Is there any way for a civil society to emerge after 40 years of total suppression? Will it be post-Soviet Russia? Will educated Iranians in exile (a generational thing now) be able/willing to reconstitute a civil society?

[BillsFanNC]

Blown up on live TV

 

 

[SectionC3]

2 hours ago, sherpa said:

Maybe not.

Iran's chief customer is China. Disrupt oil supplies through the Gulf and you really screw one of your few allies.

Further, screwing with the Strait of Hormuz has not worked well for them and guarantees US involvement immediately, which they clearly don't desire.

There's plenty of supply, and Saudi Arabia and OPEC would be more than willing to boost production.

As well, oil is Iran's near only money making export, so they'd be hurting themselves.

The IRGC made a fortune smuggling oil during sanctions.

 

On the underground stuff, I don't think Israel has the ability to destroy those from the air, but I expect that with the absolute shocking display on intel capability inside Iran on the ground, they may be able to have a significant impact via espionage.

 

Different subject, but it is pure idiocy to suggest that the Sect. of Defense is in any way responsible for a towing mishap when the Truman executed an extremely aggressive turn while the process was underway, and the other one didn't "fall off," it was an arrested landing mishap, probably a wire failure from the ship, or a hook failure on the Hornet.

 

 

You think they're stalling?

My guess is they have no leadership left and don't even know who is dead yet.

I do think they’re stalling.  The still have the nuke facility buried in the

mountain. (Which may be why we’re building the fuel bridge today.). Keep that, reload Hizbollah, build more missiles,  and maybe the nuke, and then start again. 

[All_Pro_Bills]

4 hours ago, sherpa said:

Maybe not.

Iran's chief customer is China. Disrupt oil supplies through the Gulf and you really screw one of your few allies.

Further, screwing with the Strait of Hormuz has not worked well for them and guarantees US involvement immediately, which they clearly don't desire.

There's plenty of supply, and Saudi Arabia and OPEC would be more than willing to boost production.

As well, oil is Iran's near only money making export, so they'd be hurting themselves.

The IRGC made a fortune smuggling oil during sanctions.

 

On the underground stuff, I don't think Israel has the ability to destroy those from the air, but I expect that with the absolute shocking display on intel capability inside Iran on the ground, they may be able to have a significant impact via espionage.

Early this morning I saw a CNBC interview with an oil sector analyst and he said OPEC has approximately 7 million bbl/day of spare capacity but that 5 million of that flows through the straits. The leaves spare capacity of 2 million outside the conflict zone. If Iranian crude goes offline China could switch to additional Russian or Saudi crude or longer term perhaps Canadian oil sands exports from the West coast.

 

I expect Israel is trying to convince the Trump administration to directly join the conflict and use the Air Force's big bomber capability to drop those 4 ton bunker busters on the underground facilities. I think directly joining the conflict in an offensive capacity would be a mistake. But nothing will be surprising. Entering the conflict would be politically damaging to Trump and only amplify voices claiming US Middle East policy decisions are directed from Israel. I also read the Pentagon is moving a carrier group (I can't recall which one) to the Persian Gulf from its current deployment in the South China Sea. Which I expect leaves Taiwan exposed. Another potential hot spot. The story said the carrier group was scheduled to rotate out of deployment back to home port but was diverted to the combat zone.

 

It also appears the objective is slowly transforming from eliminated Iran's nuclear program to regime change efforts. The track record of success on those types of operations hasn't been very good.

 

 

Edited Monday at 08:04 PM by All_Pro_Bills

[sherpa]

26 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Early this morning I saw a CNBC interview with an oil sector analyst and he said OPEC has approximately 7 million bbl/day of spare capacity but that 5 million of that flows through the straits. The leaves spare capacity of 2 million outside the conflict zone. If Iranian crude goes offline China could switch to additional Russian or Saudi crude or longer term perhaps Canadian oil sands exports from the West coast.

 I also read the Pentagon is moving a carrier group (I can't recall which one) to the Persian Gulf from its current deployment in the South China Sea. Which I expect leaves Taiwan exposed. Another potential hot spot. The story said the carrier group was scheduled to rotate out of deployment back to home port but was diverted to the combat zone.

 

 

 

 

The carrier you mentioned is Nimitz.

Transited the Strait of Malacca, (Singapore), and into the Indian Ocean yesterday.

That leaves G. Washington, which is docked in Yokosuka, Japan for the South China Sea if need be.

 

Regarding the oil issue, while anything is possible for a couple days anyway, I can't see what's left of the IRCG having any significant impact on the Persian Gulf. They have been decimated, and they have no support in such an action.

They have also failed miserably in past attempts to disrupt intl shipping.

[stevestojan]

And here we are arguing over a parade and protests. Yikes. 

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, stevestojan said:

And here we are arguing over a parade and protests. Yikes. 

 

Yesh.

 

The intersting thing in this is, realistically there are 3 ways this can play out.

 

The Iranian people seize this opportunity now that the mullahs are weakened and retake their country from them.

 

The Iranians withstand this initial surge, either on their own or via help from Russia and China, Israel ends up significantly weakened and the whole ME ends up, somehow, even more volatile than it has been.

 

Or, at the end of the day, the stalemate between Iran and Israel remains but Iran redoubles their efforts to get a nuke.

 

Seriously high stake gambit Netanyahu took here.  And absolutely no idea how it'll turn out.  Really hoping it winds up the 1st option because the world get reset in a much better way if the Abraham Accords spread and Iran no longer is the key terror backer.  But could easily see it going in a different direction.  That the Iranians seem to be asking for the US to step back in and negotiate makes the "good" outcome seem at least plausible.

[Doc]

35 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Yesh.

 

The intersting thing in this is, realistically there are 3 ways this can play out.

 

The Iranian people seize this opportunity now that the mullahs are weakened and retake their country from them.

 

The Iranians withstand this initial surge, either on their own or via help from Russia and China, Israel ends up significantly weakened and the whole ME ends up, somehow, even more volatile than it has been.

 

Or, at the end of the day, the stalemate between Iran and Israel remains but Iran redoubles their efforts to get a nuke.

 

Seriously high stake gambit Netanyahu took here.  And absolutely no idea how it'll turn out.  Really hoping it winds up the 1st option because the world get reset in a much better way if the Abraham Accords spread and Iran no longer is the key terror backer.  But could easily see it going in a different direction.  That the Iranians seem to be asking for the US to step back in and negotiate makes the "good" outcome seem at least plausible.

 

I was watching The Five and Kennedy was saying that Israel has their own bunker busters, but not the magnitude of the US version.

[sherpa]

33 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

I was watching The Five and Kennedy was saying that Israel has their own bunker busters, but not the magnitude of the US version.

 

We just provided them more of our smaller versions yesterday, but they don't have the 30,000 pounder, the GBU 57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, nor a means to deliver it.

[SectionC3]

2 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Early this morning I saw a CNBC interview with an oil sector analyst and he said OPEC has approximately 7 million bbl/day of spare capacity but that 5 million of that flows through the straits. The leaves spare capacity of 2 million outside the conflict zone. If Iranian crude goes offline China could switch to additional Russian or Saudi crude or longer term perhaps Canadian oil sands exports from the West coast.

 

I expect Israel is trying to convince the Trump administration to directly join the conflict and use the Air Force's big bomber capability to drop those 4 ton bunker busters on the underground facilities. I think directly joining the conflict in an offensive capacity would be a mistake. But nothing will be surprising. Entering the conflict would be politically damaging to Trump and only amplify voices claiming US Middle East policy decisions are directed from Israel. I also read the Pentagon is moving a carrier group (I can't recall which one) to the Persian Gulf from its current deployment in the South China Sea. Which I expect leaves Taiwan exposed. Another potential hot spot. The story said the carrier group was scheduled to rotate out of deployment back to home port but was diverted to the combat zone.

 

It also appears the objective is slowly transforming from eliminated Iran's nuclear program to regime change efforts. The track record of success on those types of operations hasn't been very good.

 

 

Well said. 

3 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

We just provided them more of our smaller versions yesterday, but they don't have the 30,000 pounder, the GBU 57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, nor a means to deliver it.

If they had the means to blow up the mountain facility, it would have been destroyed already. Hence the fuel bridge and the Iranian play for time. 

[Doc]

22 minutes ago, sherpa said:

We just provided them more of our smaller versions yesterday, but they don't have the 30,000 pounder, the GBU 57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, nor a means to deliver it.

 

I just caught the part where she said they have them.  I might have missed the "means to deliver it" part.

[Mikie2times]

On 6/15/2025 at 12:07 AM, ComradeKayAdams said:

 

Preemptive attacks are contentious issues in international law and depend entirely on the evidence for “imminence.” Sure, you can be logically consistent in denouncing Israel’s actions in Gaza while supporting their preemptive strikes in Iran. My question, however, is why should the outside world trust a country that is actively committing a genocide and stealing land in every direction?? I personally trust Israel’s government far less than I do the same American government that told us about those WMD’s in Iraq!

 

But now Israel is attacking Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure. So now the goalposts are rapidly moving beyond “prevention of imminent nuclear attack” to “regime change war, with assistance from the United States.” Lovely. If Iran chooses to close off the Strait of Hormuz, say hello to a devastating economic recession. Israel couldn’t wait a few more days for the peace talks in Oman?? Really?! Yeah, right… Keep in mind that we already know Israel has been sabotaging direct talks between the U.S. and Hamas so to keep Hamas in power in Gaza.

 

Many of you guys need to examine why you keep falling for neocon lies and message framing. There are many nuanced lessons to be learned about the dehumanization process, “might makes right” American imperialism, Zionism, and the like. I’ll keep things simple: what is the perspective of our perceived enemy, Iran? Answer that question.

 

My answer: Iran has no reason to ever trust the United States. Our country has been disrespecting their sovereignty since the 1950’s, due to access to fossil fuel energy resources. Iran agreed to the JCPOA and followed it faithfully, according to the IAEA. Then Trump ripped it up, made unsubstantiated claims of violations, and failed to replace the JCPOA with revised peace terms. Fast forward to 2025, and Trump’s “Art of the Deal” strategies somehow include denying Iran’s fundamental international right to fissile nuclear material for energy and medical research purposes. Meanwhile, Trump is supporting Israel’s offensive attacks against Iran…just as he’s supporting their ethnic cleansing in Gaza and their annexation of both the West Bank and southwest Syria (all of which had been previewed years earlier with the Abraham Accords and with Trump’s acknowledged annexation of the Golan Heights).

 

To be clear: I’m no fan of Iran’s theocracy, in a similar way that I’m no fan of Christian nationalism in the United States or of Jewish apartheid practices in Israel. But the neocon fearmongering of Iran using nuclear weapons in the region, which would thereby 100% assure their own destruction, is tired and stupid. If Iran wants nuclear weapons ASAP, it is so to avoid becoming the next Libya.

Peace talks? Iran was never going to give up it's pursuit of a nuclear bomb. Negative never if the motivation was from Israel. Netanyahu IS pursuing a regime change and it is primarily a result of the eventual threat of Nuclear weapons. The regime in Iran and threat of a Nuclear bomb go hand in hand. You can't remove that threat while the regime and Khamenei are still in power.

 

If the energy infrastructure was a primary target he could have easily done the damage you discuss. It's not, as he will lose what support he has if he took those actions. You keep calling out Gaza, so I imagine your beef is more about Palestine. Which I would focus more of your conversation towards. The Iran leaders have been oppressing and killing their own for decades. It is one of the worst regimes in the world. They deserve less than no sympathy and if ultimately the threat of a nuclear bomb was just noise to justify overthrowing Khamenei it's doing the world a favor.      

[yall]

51 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

We just provided them more of our smaller versions yesterday, but they don't have the 30,000 pounder, the GBU 57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, nor a means to deliver it.

Can we throw a set of dealer plates on a B2 and let them do a quick test drive?

Edited Monday at 10:56 PM by yall