Mini-Camp: A James Cook Barometer

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

Cook has unique burst and wiggle. Somehow, difficult to get a good tackle on despite his unusual frame. Gets lost in the mix then bursts for 8-9 yards. Has breakaway speed and has shown it consistently to the outside.

 

He's worth paying. Not 15 but above 10.

[harmonkillebrew]

Cook is the 2nd most impactful player on the team.

They need to get him a new deal and to camp. The season hinges on it

[machine gun kelly]

I’m in the camp as some others.  Let him play out his rookie contract this year.  Tag him in 2026, and draft one in the 2nd or 3rd rd in the 2026 draft.

 

I wouldn’t do an extension for him.  You have to be the complete deal to get an extension like a Barkley, or Henry.  There so few RB’s who can do it all.

 

 

Edited 11 hours ago by machine gun kelly

[Mr. WEO]

he will be at maxicamp

[Ballsy]

On 6/4/2025 at 9:20 AM, FireChans said:

James Cook should do what's best for James Cook. If that means holding out to the last possible second to secure financial salvation for at least 2 generations of his family, so be it and good for him. 

No problem with Cook holding out - he's free to work, or not work as he desires. 

Cook has already earned $4.6M.  Playing this season on the existing contract earns him another $5.4M.  He will have earned $10M before age 26.  If you assume that between his agent and the tax man, he only nets half of that ($5M), he could have multi-generational wealth even if retired at the end of this upcoming season. If he controls his spending...

My issue is with your two implications:

First, that he needs this next contract to secure secure financial salvation for multiple generations.  That the $10M in earnings on the first contract isn't enough for multi-generational wealth. Your second implication is that the difference between what the Bills would like to sign him to (probably around $10M/year) and what he wants, $15M/year) will be required for multi-generation wealth.

With respect to issue #1:  Studies about NFL player bankruptcies show that larger contracts and longer careers do NOT substantially reduce their risk of bankruptcy in retirement.  This study (https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/beyond-bls/life-after-the-nfl.htm) projects 15%-40% of players, regardless of career duration and earnings, will file for bankruptcy within 25 years of retirement.

As to implication #2, I would bet Beane would gladly sign him to a contract for $10M/year for 2 years right now. I'm not advocating that Cook accept $10M/year, just making a point that he could likely sign a contract today that guaranteed him $20M over 2 years.  That would get him a total of 30M in career earnings before age 28.  He has indicated he wants $15M+ year.  Over 2 years, that would be an additional $10M+ in earnings.  So $40M in career earnings vs. $30M.  I would postulate that if an athlete (or person) doesn't have the financial discipline to create generational wealth on $30M in career earnings, the bump from $30M to $40M won't make a difference in financial salvation.

Now, I don't have any issue with him (or anyone) holding out, refusing to play, holding in, etc.  It's a free market. But let's not characterize this as "two generations of family wealth", or he's got to "feed his family" as Latrell Sprewell infamously said when rejecting a 3 year $21M contract 20 years ago.  Speaking of Latrell, he had north of $100 million in career earnings and now has a net worth of about $150K.  So much for financial salvation.  Ronald Read, on the other hand never made more than minimum wage working as a janitor and gas station attendant yet died with a net worth of 8.6M

I postulate, above $500K in annual income, financial salvation is only dependent on your spending....

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Ballsy said:

Cook has already earned $4.6M.  Playing this season on the existing contract earns him another $5.4M.  He will have earned $10M before age 26.  If you assume that between his agent and the tax man, he only nets half of that ($5M), he could have multi-generational wealth even if retired at the end of this upcoming season. If he controls his spending...

The problem with that is that his salary is largely non-guaranteed for 2025. 

 

So if James Cook has an unfortunate jet ski accident, the Bills waive him with a non-football injury, and he walks away with $4.6M in earnings, closer to 2M after taxes/agents, and generational wealth is gone.

 

He has a little bit of leverage now, which he is using, because his financial future is far from guaranteed. 

 

He should do whatever he can to get the most money possible, because it is what we would all do in his position.

[RochesterLifer]

14 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Cook is the 2nd most impactful player on the team.

They need to get him a new deal and to camp. The season hinges on it

This is the very definition of hyperbole. The season does NOT hinge on a new deal for Cook. Fortunately, in Beane, we have a GM with a real business and football mind.

[stlbills13]

Maybe I've developed a drinking problem this offseason but every single time I see this thread title I read it as: "Mini-Camp: A James Cook Bartender"

[Paup 1995MVP]

3 hours ago, Ballsy said:

No problem with Cook holding out - he's free to work, or not work as he desires. 

Cook has already earned $4.6M.  Playing this season on the existing contract earns him another $5.4M.  He will have earned $10M before age 26.  If you assume that between his agent and the tax man, he only nets half of that ($5M), he could have multi-generational wealth even if retired at the end of this upcoming season. If he controls his spending...

My issue is with your two implications:

First, that he needs this next contract to secure secure financial salvation for multiple generations.  That the $10M in earnings on the first contract isn't enough for multi-generational wealth. Your second implication is that the difference between what the Bills would like to sign him to (probably around $10M/year) and what he wants, $15M/year) will be required for multi-generation wealth.

With respect to issue #1:  Studies about NFL player bankruptcies show that larger contracts and longer careers do NOT substantially reduce their risk of bankruptcy in retirement.  This study (https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/beyond-bls/life-after-the-nfl.htm) projects 15%-40% of players, regardless of career duration and earnings, will file for bankruptcy within 25 years of retirement.

As to implication #2, I would bet Beane would gladly sign him to a contract for $10M/year for 2 years right now. I'm not advocating that Cook accept $10M/year, just making a point that he could likely sign a contract today that guaranteed him $20M over 2 years.  That would get him a total of 30M in career earnings before age 28.  He has indicated he wants $15M+ year.  Over 2 years, that would be an additional $10M+ in earnings.  So $40M in career earnings vs. $30M.  I would postulate that if an athlete (or person) doesn't have the financial discipline to create generational wealth on $30M in career earnings, the bump from $30M to $40M won't make a difference in financial salvation.

Now, I don't have any issue with him (or anyone) holding out, refusing to play, holding in, etc.  It's a free market. But let's not characterize this as "two generations of family wealth", or he's got to "feed his family" as Latrell Sprewell infamously said when rejecting a 3 year $21M contract 20 years ago.  Speaking of Latrell, he had north of $100 million in career earnings and now has a net worth of about $150K.  So much for financial salvation.  Ronald Read, on the other hand never made more than minimum wage working as a janitor and gas station attendant yet died with a net worth of 8.6M

I postulate, above $500K in annual income, financial salvation is only dependent on your spending....

Generational Wealth?  Wth are you all talking about?  This guy is in his mid 20's.  Why on earth should he support the rest of his family anyways?  Unless they are disabled, they should all get off their asses and go work for a living.  He wants to help his Mom out some, that's nice.  But I bet she would probably be early to mid 50's at this point at most.  She can work too.  Its not his families money.  Its James Cook's money.  

 

I have a successful business which I have run for 30 years.  I sure as hell was not supporting my parents or brothers from it.  My brothers were both successful in their fields.  As were my parents.  I helped my mom some when she had a tax problem when getting divorced years ago.  But other than that, we all took care of our own selves as adults.  Like I am sure most of you on here do.

 

Now with when it comes to our kids, yes we all need to take care of our own.  And making a good living in whatever you do helps with that.

 

But I don't think Brandon Beane cares about James Cook's generational wealth one way or another.  His one responsibility is putting a competitive team on the field every single year.    

[FireChans]

31 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Generational Wealth?  Wth are you all talking about?  This guy is in his mid 20's.  Why on earth should he support the rest of his family anyways?  Unless they are disabled, they should all get off their asses and go work for a living.  He wants to help his Mom out some, that's nice.  But I bet she would probably be early to mid 50's at this point at most.  She can work too.  Its not his families money.  Its James Cook's money.  

 

I have a successful business which I have run for 30 years.  I sure as hell was not supporting my parents or brothers from it.  My brothers were both successful in their fields.  As were my parents.  I helped my mom some when she had a tax problem when getting divorced years ago.  But other than that, we all took care of our own selves as adults.  Like I am sure most of you on here do.

 

Now with when it comes to our kids, yes we all need to take care of our own.  And making a good living in whatever you do helps with that.

 

But I don't think Brandon Beane cares about James Cook's generational wealth one way or another.  His one responsibility is putting a competitive team on the field every single year.    

Is this meant to be deeply ironic?

[SoonerBillsFan]

16 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Cook is the 2nd most impactful player on the team.

They need to get him a new deal and to camp. The season hinges on it

Bull.... Christ folks come on now.

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

The problem with that is that his salary is largely non-guaranteed for 2025. 

 

So if James Cook has an unfortunate jet ski accident, the Bills waive him with a non-football injury, and he walks away with $4.6M in earnings, closer to 2M after taxes/agents, and generational wealth is gone.

 

He has a little bit of leverage now, which he is using, because his financial future is far from guaranteed. 

 

He should do whatever he can to get the most money possible, because it is what we would all do in his position.

He doesn't have much leverage.  Shakir and Bernard were also non premium positions but they took the offer Beane gave them because it protected against that sort of thing.  There's no doubt in my mind that Beane valued him around $8m a year and pry isn't going to budge much.  If he goes this year without a contract extension he's betting on himself.  I'm not going to feel bad for him if he has a major injury because he had a chance to sign the extension that Beane offered him.

[PrimeTime101]

16 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Cook is the 2nd most impactful player on the team.

They need to get him a new deal and to camp. The season hinges on it

BAHAHAHAHA  come on man. get real. 

[GunnerBill]

On 6/5/2025 at 5:07 PM, BillsShredder83 said:

Fair, I was a understating my true point.  Hes gotten better since his rookie year w/ contact but i see too many shoe string tackles.  dudes "power" is that he is hard to get a hand on, a very valid skill set, i just dont think its going to lend itself well to a team with even a middling OL.  if we put a good OL out there like we do, theres no need to pay a one-dimensional RB that kinda money.  if he can become a pass blocker and see the field on 3rd down more, AND he proves that he can produce, or we find a way to get more production passing to him, you could possibly defend paying him... but he has not been the 3rd down back we thought we were signing up for when drafting him. do i think he can be better in the passing game, i do.  for whatever reason it hasnt materialized. even if he does have significant upside to that skill, if we cant scheme it and find a way to use it.... that skill doesnt help us.

 

if brady wants us to retain him, he better find a way this year to materialize it.  id be more than happy to pay him IF (or watch someone else do it if he completely prices himself out w/ us) he can turn into a true dual threat. we've had very weak outside WR play as of late, we need a guy to stop the defense from being able to narrow the field horizontally.

 

i obviously like having the guys talents around, i just cant justify that kinda money for what he currently brings to the table.  thats not even necessarily on him, but i think we can get very similar production at significantly cheaper prices... and Davis looks like he'll be an upgrade in the passing game to me. i also certainly think we can make up for the production drop off through Josh throwing the ball a touch more.  I think we could find out Ray-Day is better suited for this offense!

 

The reason you are wrong is success behind average olines isn't about power. It is about vision. And that is literally Cook's best trait. The exact same holes that Devin Singletary was missing and getting tackled for a loss Cook is spotting and making 3 or 4 yards. That isn't to say the oline hasn't got better.... clearly it has. But what makes Cook special is vision. Ray Davis does not have that same ability. And as such he is not better suited to this, or any, offense. Cook is just a better player.

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

The problem with that is that his salary is largely non-guaranteed for 2025. 

 

So if James Cook has an unfortunate jet ski accident, the Bills waive him with a non-football injury, and he walks away with $4.6M in earnings, closer to 2M after taxes/agents, and generational wealth is gone.

 

He has a little bit of leverage now, which he is using, because his financial future is far from guaranteed. 

 

He should do whatever he can to get the most money possible, because it is what we would all do in his position.

 

100% this. Cook is going to play even if he doesn't get a new deal. But he is going to use every bit of leverage he can to try and get that deal before it comes to that. And so he should.

[FireChans]

11 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

He doesn't have much leverage.  Shakir and Bernard were also non premium positions but they took the offer Beane gave them because it protected against that sort of thing.  There's no doubt in my mind that Beane valued him around $8m a year and pry isn't going to budge much.  If he goes this year without a contract extension he's betting on himself.  I'm not going to feel bad for him if he has a major injury because he had a chance to sign the extension that Beane offered him.

He's not trying to go this year without a contract extension though.

 

He's trying to get the best possible contract extension.  As he should.

Edited 3 hours ago by FireChans

[Doc Brown]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He's not trying to go this year without a contract extension though.

 

He's trying to get the best possible contract extension.  As he should.

Do you know if they can alter his contract and have his last year guaranteed for injury?  I know they can add incentive bonuses which is my best guess of what will happen.

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Do you know if they can alter his contract and have his last year guaranteed for injury?  I know they can add incentive bonuses which is my best guess of what will happen.

I don't know.  If it was a non-rookie scale contract, I think they could but I think the rookie deals have some kind of language/structure about guarantee%. 

 

I'm also not sure the Bills have the space to add a bunch of meaningful incentives.

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I don't know.  If it was a non-rookie scale contract, I think they could but I think the rookie deals have some kind of language/structure about guarantee%. 

 

I'm also not sure the Bills have the space to add a bunch of meaningful incentives.

Cap space isn't that hard to create so that wouldn't worry me.  It might be a temporary band aid to make sure we get 100% out of Cook starting in training camp.

[Goin Breakdown]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Is this meant to be deeply ironic?

 

2 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Generational Wealth?  Wth are you all talking about?  This guy is in his mid 20's.  Why on earth should he support the rest of his family anyways?  Unless they are disabled, they should all get off their asses and go work for a living.  He wants to help his Mom out some, that's nice.  But I bet she would probably be early to mid 50's at this point at most.  She can work too.  Its not his families money.  Its James Cook's money.  

 

I have a successful business which I have run for 30 years.  I sure as hell was not supporting my parents or brothers from it.  My brothers were both successful in their fields.  As were my parents.  I helped my mom some when she had a tax problem when getting divorced years ago.  But other than that, we all took care of our own selves as adults.  Like I am sure most of you on here do.

 

Now with when it comes to our kids, yes we all need to take care of our own.  And making a good living in whatever you do helps with that.

 

But I don't think Brandon Beane cares about James Cook's generational wealth one way or another.  His one responsibility is putting a competitive team on the field every single year.    

This is family he's talking about. I take it as him saying generations to come. Unless I missed something, nothing was said of his mom. Now that being said....if my Mom and Dad spent years and money driving me around to make sure I'd have the best chance of reaching my dreams, I'm going to be grateful. If money is all I have to show gratitude then I'd use it. I don't care if they can get a better job or not. But that's just my opinion.