Since 2020 - highest scoring offense and fewest points allowed defense

[SoMAn]

On 5/30/2025 at 9:24 PM, BillsFan619 said:

I get it, we all want a SB title. I even mentioned that I hope this success leads to at least one title.

 

But, why does every good thing they do get negated with “doesn’t mean much, no title”. 

With the examples I’m about to list, please know I’m not saying you’ve said all of these, I’m just giving examples:

-Five straight AFCE titles - “Yeah, but, no titles”

-McD best winning percentage coach in Bills history - “Doesn’t mean much”

-JA NFL MVP - “Yeah, but no ring”

-Highest scoring offense and fewest points allowed defense over five years - “Doesn’t mean anything”

 

I want a title just as much as the next Bills fan, but it doesn’t mean there’s been no good things that have happened and that this team hasn’t had a great run. There’s still things to celebrate.

If everything is based on a title no sports franchise is successful because everyone has way more years without titles than they do with titles.

 

We all want a title, but it’s still been a great five years for the Bills and our fan base.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

Good one, Doc. Thanks for laying down the ground rules! 😃🤣

I'm repeating something I wrote recently on another fan site with the usual cries of 'fire/replace McDermott".  Of course, when asked how they'd remedy the

head coaching status, without a cogent argument they inevitably say "Bill Belichick".  Duh.

Great idea. Alienate the roster and the GM who love McDermott and start over with a 73 year old coach.  Belichick has six rings as head coach out of 29 seasons as head guy, so to think it's automatic is ridiculous. He never won a Super Bowl without Brady, yet Brady has won one without Belichick. Do the math.

He might be a good coach, but that ship has sailed. Has any other Super Bowl winning coach gone on to win one with another team? Jimmy Johnson? Parcells? 

 

Something to ponder - Tomlin, Harbaugh, McVay, Payton, and Carroll - all have success as the head man and have won a Super Bowl. They have nearly 80 combined seasons as an NFL head coach between them, and a grand total of 5 Super Bowl wins, 1 each.  

Andy Reid was a head coach for 19 years before winning a Super Bowl!

 

When 'fans' cry "fire McDermott", they clearly have no conception of how difficult it is to make it to a Super Bowl and win one. So much of it is just the right combination of keeping key players, developing new players, a good personnel dept, team chemistry, maintaining health, and sometimes one or two calls by the zebras can be the difference. 

There's a fine line. 

Personally, I hope McDermott remains in Buffalo for many years to come. 

 

[Mister Defense]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Sorry to be unclear. That analogy hits me all the time, but it's more a function of my warped mind than something that would occur to others. Sorry.

 

The desperation to find a scapegoat always bemuses me. 

 

We all ache for a championship. It's natural. But having a real chance every single year is a huge joy, one that most fanbases could never imagine.

 

No, it's a good comparison. As sometimes the best analogies are the ones that are not obvious, that you have to think about.

 

Yes, the journey is the destination.  And this particular journey is bringing us great things, great game days that fill our heads with amazing images.

 

The championship will come.  But, sadly, for many of those on that crazy negative train, even that will just be a one day thing. They will get right back on their super negative bandwagon at the first bump in the road.

 

 

[90sBills]

50 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

 

The championship will come.  But, sadly, for many of those on that crazy negative train, even that will just be a one day thing. They will get right back on their super negative bandwagon at the first bump in the road.

 

This is very assumptive. Feels like this is based on ‘pure emotion only.’

[Gregg]

1 hour ago, Mister Defense said:

 

No, it's a good comparison. As sometimes the best analogies are the ones that are not obvious, that you have to think about.

 

Yes, the journey is the destination.  And this particular journey is bringing us great things, great game days that fill our heads with amazing images.

 

The championship will come.  But, sadly, for many of those on that crazy negative train, even that will just be a one day thing. They will get right back on their super negative bandwagon at the first bump in the road.

 

 

 

It will depend on how much the defense improves. Beane basically moved heaven and earth this offseason to improve it. We all know Allen and the offense will produce. But will the defense especially in the playoffs when facing good QBs with good offenses. If they can then the Bills have an excellent chance to win a Super Bowl. If not, then everybody knows what will happen as we have seen how it has played out over the years.

[Mikie2times]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

First, it's not the "psyche of the Bills fan base." It's just not. It's the psyche of a significant portion of them, yes. And it goes something like one of those scenes from the original Star Trek where the actors are all trying to synchronize throwing themselves from side to side on the set as if they're all being battered by huge explosions and Captain Kirk is spitting out, to nobody, his thoughts, "Must ... reach ... the phase shift ... dilithium ... button ... reverse the polarity ... find ... scapegoat ... blame Bills losses ... pitchforks ..."

 

This is one of the most common, basic ways to handle loss and disappointment among human beings. And most of the time it doesn't make sense. It's just the comfortable response.

 

It's not "everyone" who knows the defense is a "fraud." It's mostly a small group of very sad people. Who mistake the inability to stop one sensational offense with the greatest QB since Brady, a guy who's likely to enter the GOAT conversation, with being bad.

 

They certainly weren't good enough last year. But overall, the past four years before that they were damn good.

 

And again, they have actually been damned effective in the playoffs. Except against the Chiefs.

 

You're right, it's not just you. But it's closer to "just you" than it is to "everyone."

 

 

Vs Skyler Thompson, Mason Rudolph, Mac Jones, and Bo Nix we allowed

18 PPG, 271 Yards, 18 First Downs, 4.8 Yards per play

 

Vs Joe Burrow, Phillip River, Lamar Jackson (2nd game)

25 PPG, 433 Yards, 27 First Downs, 6.4 Yards per play

 

Vs Kansas City

35 PPG, 430 Yards, 27 First Downs, 7.1 Yards per play

 

In the only other playoff game not listed, the Ravens/Bills wind game, we were only able to score 10 offensive points on 220 yards and 17 First downs. Neither team did anything offensively that game. A total of 13 offensive points were scored. 

 

So when conditions are clearly not impacting output it's been any competent QB, not just KC. But you know this already because it's been talked about a thousand times. If you want to ignore it or bucket it another way that is up to you. Really nothing more to talk about on this topic.  

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

9 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Vs Skyler Thompson, Mason Rudolph, Mac Jones, and Bo Nix we allowed

18 PPG, 271 Yards, 18 First Downs, 4.8 Yards per play

 

Vs Joe Burrow, Phillip River, Lamar Jackson (2nd game)

25 PPG, 433 Yards, 27 First Downs, 6.4 Yards per play

 

Vs Kansas City

35 PPG, 430 Yards, 27 First Downs, 7.1 Yards per play

 

In the only other playoff game not listed, the Ravens/Bills wind game, we were only able to score 10 offensive points on 220 yards and 17 First downs. Neither team did anything offensively that game. A total of 13 offensive points were scored. 

 

So when conditions are clearly not impacting output it's been any competent QB, not just KC. But you know this already because it's been talked about a thousand times. If you want to ignore it or bucket it another way that is up to you. Really nothing more to talk about on this topic.  

 

 

I feel like this exercise translates to regular season as well.  It also translates to basically every team in the league to a point. 

 

I feel like if you look at any top pass rusher in the last 5 years and tell me they didn't pad their stats against a bad team.  I remember wondering what we were going to do to replace the 10.5 sacks Floyd put up, and its like well... he had 1 sack after 11/19, none in the playoffs.  3 combined against Wilson/Boyle, 2 against Sam Howell, 2 against Lawrence, and 1 against Tyrod.  

[Brand J]

13 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

I feel like this exercise translates to regular season as well.  It also translates to basically every team in the league to a point.

I know the Bills regular season numbers against Mahomes are vastly different than postseason. I know Reid said he hides some things, but Pat plays much better and the defense plays far worse (usually with a key injury or two somewhere, but that doesn’t excuse them).

[BigDingus]

On 5/30/2025 at 8:24 PM, BillsFan619 said:

I get it, we all want a SB title. I even mentioned that I hope this success leads to at least one title.

 

But, why does every good thing they do get negated with “doesn’t mean much, no title”. 

With the examples I’m about to list, please know I’m not saying you’ve said all of these, I’m just giving examples:

 

-Five straight AFCE titles - “Yeah, but the AFC East is a clown show"

-McD best winning percentage coach in Bills history - “Doesn't that just mean our history is kinda sad?"

-JA NFL MVP - “Yeah, but even Karl Malone got some MVPs during Michael Jordan's run..."

-Highest scoring offense and fewest points allowed defense over five years - “That's because we play in a dome... Wait, I mean, it's because Josh Allen flops. No, that's not it... Uh, Stefon Diggs did it?"

 

Your responses were all wrong, so I fixed em.

[Mikie2times]

21 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I feel like this exercise translates to regular season as well.  It also translates to basically every team in the league to a point. 

 

I feel like if you look at any top pass rusher in the last 5 years and tell me they didn't pad their stats against a bad team.  I remember wondering what we were going to do to replace the 10.5 sacks Floyd put up, and its like well... he had 1 sack after 11/19, none in the playoffs.  3 combined against Wilson/Boyle, 2 against Sam Howell, 2 against Lawrence, and 1 against Tyrod.  

 

The top graph is the increase or decrease in performance of EPA offense, regular season vs postseason since 2020

 

The bottom graph is the increase or decrease in performance of EPA defense, regular season vs postseason since 2020

 

 

So while most teams do perform worse defensively in the postseason, I would argue no team in NFL history has fallen so drastically as we have. Dallas is twice as bad as the next team in that sample and we are 50% worse than Dallas. The why has been talked about to nauseous levels. I'm only bringing this up again because I saw a post that was just factually not close.    

[billsfan714]

38 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 

The top graph is the increase or decrease in performance of EPA offense, regular season vs postseason since 2020

 

The bottom graph is the increase or decrease in performance of EPA defense, regular season vs postseason since 2020

 

 

So while most teams do perform worse defensively in the postseason, I would argue no team in NFL history has fallen so drastically as we have. Dallas is twice as bad as the next team in that sample and we are 50% worse than Dallas. The why has been talked about to nauseous levels. I'm only bringing this up again because I saw a post that was just factually not close.    

Thats a pretty jaw dropping chart, just like the Eagles stopped the Chiefs 9 times in the superbowl and McD and his D have stopped the Chiefs 9 times in 4 playoff games.   Its pretty clear to my lying eyes that McD consistently doesn't coach the D up in the big playoff games, in fact he regresses badly.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

30 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 

The top graph is the increase or decrease in performance of EPA offense, regular season vs postseason since 2020

 

The bottom graph is the increase or decrease in performance of EPA defense, regular season vs postseason since 2020

 

 

So while most teams do perform worse defensively in the postseason, I would argue no team in NFL history has fallen so drastically as we have. Dallas is twice as bad as the next team in that sample and we are 50% worse than Dallas. The why has been talked about to nauseous levels. I'm only bringing this up again because I saw a post that was just factually not close.    

 

What did i say that was factually not close?  That every defense in the league has better metrics when they play bad teams?  Because that was the crux of the argument.  The pass rushing example is just a reinforcement stats are padded against lousy competition. 

 

EPA doesn't factor in quality of competition, just whether points were added or lost based off of the performance of the defense - and this reflects that.  If the EPA is higher than it should be based on an easier schedule or just generally padding stats against bad teams, the difference between playoff performance and non-playoff performance is greater.  If players are injured down the stretch, it would also likely reflect a greater difference between non-playoff and playoff.  

 

 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

What did i say that was factually not close?  That every defense in the league has better metrics when they play bad teams?  Because that was the crux of the argument.  The pass rushing example is just a reinforcement stats are padded against lousy competition. 

 

EPA doesn't factor in quality of competition, just whether points were added or lost based off of the performance of the defense - and this reflects that.  If the EPA is higher than it should be based on an easier schedule or just generally padding stats against bad teams, the difference between playoff performance and non-playoff performance is greater.  If players are injured down the stretch, it would also likely reflect a greater difference between non-playoff and playoff.  

 

 

What conclusion do you draw from @Mikie2times graph?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

22 minutes ago, FireChans said:

What conclusion do you draw from @Mikie2times graph?

 

The bills defense plays worse in the playoffs.  I would say there's flaws in the argument that they are SO much worse than everyone else - main one being quality of competition.  Home/Road splits is another piece worth warranting.  

 

All I was saying was that defenses have better numbers against bad offenses, which the post i referred to stated.  My conclusion was that every defense performs better against bad offenses.  

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

I would say there's flaws in the argument that they are SO much worse than everyone else - main one being quality of competition.

Do you think the Bills have faced the hardest playoff schedule out of all of those other teams?

 

If that's the case, why is the offense the second best in offensive improvement in the postseason?

Edited Monday at 06:52 PM by FireChans

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Do you think the Bills have faced the hardest playoff schedule out of all of those other teams?

 

If that's the case, why is the offense the second best in offensive improvement in the postseason?

 

I don't know and I'm not going to dig and find out for you.  

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

What did i say that was factually not close?  That every defense in the league has better metrics when they play bad teams?  Because that was the crux of the argument.  The pass rushing example is just a reinforcement stats are padded against lousy competition. 

 

EPA doesn't factor in quality of competition, just whether points were added or lost based off of the performance of the defense - and this reflects that.  If the EPA is higher than it should be based on an easier schedule or just generally padding stats against bad teams, the difference between playoff performance and non-playoff performance is greater.  If players are injured down the stretch, it would also likely reflect a greater difference between non-playoff and playoff.  

 

 

I wasn't talking about your take in my response but I see why it seemed that way. I agree with your take. I was just adding that Buffalo does the stat padding in a way that is somewhat historic. I have speculated a part of that is playing with the lead so much in the regular season. Which makes teams unbalanced.  Mind you we can't stop either the run or the pass in the postseason, but the fact that both are a constant threat, when in the regular season so much of the time offenses are one dimensional. I'm nearly certain that is part of it. But it's a lot of things I'm sure. 

Edited Monday at 07:18 PM by Mikie2times

[Just in Atlanta]

On 6/1/2025 at 3:05 PM, Brand J said:

Or perhaps we shouldn’t brag about stats until we have a platform to stand on. Want to brag about individual stats or Josh’s MVP? Awesome, I’m right there with you - especially if it’s a concrete award the player can show off. But to brag about team stats when the team hasn’t accomplished the singular goal every team strives for year after year? It just rings hollow. You can feel differently and brag about these stats all you want, that’s your prerogative. It’s also mine to shrug at such team statistics that haven’t been backed by anything concrete.

I don’t see any bragging here. It’s a relevant stat to know. don’t see any bragging here. The OP says, and I quote, “I hope we can turn this success into a Super Bowl title.“

 

it’s a leading metric for Super Bowl success. And a pretty damn good one.

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 5/30/2025 at 5:28 PM, Brand J said:

Pretty stat, but doesn’t mean much when that team from Mizzou has owned us and been to 5 SBs in less than a decade.

Exactly....why are we celebrating a stat(s) that translates to nothing in the playoffs?  Everyone knows we dominate the regular season. But we still can't close out tight playoff games against Cincy or KC.  Until we find a way to cross this threshold, our ultimate finish will be predictable every year.  

[Brand J]

50 minutes ago, Just in Atlanta said:

I don’t see any bragging here. It’s a relevant stat to know. don’t see any bragging here. The OP says, and I quote, “I hope we can turn this success into a Super Bowl title.“

 

it’s a leading metric for Super Bowl success. And a pretty damn good one.

 

 

What relevance do the 2020-2024 offensive and defensive stats have without so much as a Super Bowl appearance? Like I said, it was a pretty stat, but it ultimately doesn’t mean or translate to anything. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Yeah this comes up every few months, it is amazing they have not even been to a SB. The defense has issues in playoff games no matter what the regular season has been...........