Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[ganesh]

On 5/22/2025 at 1:28 AM, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

Its up to Brady to scheme him open as well or rotate him into slot at times.

 

Bills need some creativity on offense.

Umm...It was the best ever offense in Bills History.   It just did not have enough flashy plays to satisfy your appetite !!!

[BillsShredder83]

On 5/16/2025 at 9:57 PM, VW82 said:

Move Keon to the slot and he'll have success. Many of us said prior to the draft that he looked more like a big slot. 

Can you expand on why you think that? genuinely curious what the difference is. Z and a slot arent on the line, whats the benefit to Keon here? More of a football philosophy kinda question, what about Keon screams 'slot' to you. Im kinda revamping my beliefs about what a slot is as of late

[BillsShredder83]

On 5/17/2025 at 12:58 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't that he can't improve. It's that in round 1 (I know Keon was technically #33 but you take the point) you generally want high floor, high ceiling. By the end of the round those guys, inevitably, have gone so your choice is generally high floor, lower ceiling or low floor, high ceiling. Essnetially do you prefer the safe pick of swing for the fences. 

 

The problem with Keon is he is relatively low floor and lower ceiling. The way he has struggled so far in the pros is exactly the way those of us who didn't love him as a prospect thought he'd struggle. And the ways he has had success - screens and slants near the line of scrimmage 'ball in hand' and yards after catch - are the ways we thought he was most likely to succeed. When I first said as far ago as February last year that I thought he was a big slot at the next level I got a ton of pushback. Matt Harmon said the exact same thing 3 weeks later. So far the evidence supports our opinion.

Can you explain what about him makes you think big slot? I just wanna see the dude put in a position to catch the ball and get YAC.  He did look filthy on those slants, for as slow as he is, his top end speed SEEMS fast af.  Why is it easier to catch the ball off slants from the slot, then say the Z.... neither is on the line.  Is it just, in principal, facing a #3 corner instead of a #2? Im tryna learn GBill!

[BillsShredder83]

On 5/17/2025 at 1:35 AM, Doc Brown said:

I don't know but why are we talking about WR?  We scored over 30 points in eight straight games last year.  This isn't fantasy football.  Talking about WR is one of the dumbest things we should be doing right now.

nobody w/ SB aspirations care about regular season points.  that KC game was a few first downs away from a SB... and our outside WR play was abysmal. Love the dude but Hollins was our best WR that day. Thats a problemmmm

[BillsShredder83]

On 5/17/2025 at 9:41 AM, Capco said:

 

I tend to agree with you philosophically.  But on the flip side, didn't Andre Reed play mostly out of the slot?  Production is production, regardless of where it comes from, right?

Id argue Cole Beasley was the 2nd most important player his first 2-3years here.  Cool thing with a good slot is volume. Cole had volume for days.  Was like a super running back, in that he got tons of touches and was great at getting us to: 2nd-n-short, or more importantly converting 3rd downs.  I tend to agree with you. i know an outside guy effects the entire defense more than a slot..... but a slot who gets volume is my fav type of weapon.  its steady and reliable. watched brady use that for 2 decades

[Doc Brown]

13 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

nobody w/ SB aspirations care about regular season points.  that KC game was a few first downs away from a SB... and our outside WR play was abysmal. Love the dude but Hollins was our best WR that day. Thats a problemmmm

Good god.  It was sarcasm of Beane's WGR call.  WR is the most concerning position going into this season and whether the WR's step up in the playoffs will pry determine our fate......again.

[SoTier]

6 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Good god.  It was sarcasm of Beane's WGR call.  WR is the most concerning position going into this season and whether the WR's step up in the playoffs will pry determine our fate......again.

 

How the defensive line and defensive backfield develop during the season and perform come playoff time is much more likely to determine the outcome of the Bills' 2025 season than anything else.   Teams beat the Chiefs in the playoffs when their defenses get after Mahomes.

[Pete]

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-wide-receiver-rankings-top-32-2025-season PFF top 32 WRs in the NFL.  In no surprise, zero Bills WR could crack the top 32

[Krakensabres]

10 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

nobody w/ SB aspirations care about regular season points.  that KC game was a few first downs away from a SB... and our outside WR play was abysmal. Love the dude but Hollins was our best WR that day. Thats a problemmmm

Ok but we scored 29 in a playoff game at KC - and lost. Those are not “ regular season points.” 
 

if we had a whiff of a defense again a pretty poor version of the chiefs offense we win handily 

[Pete]

21 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If we are going to speculate on why Coleman struggled when he came back I'd say it's more likely that he had mentally checked out on the season during his recovery.   Coleman is not a guy who was used to playing football in December and January to begin with.   It's hard to be any good in the NFL unless you are all-in mentally and physically.   I'm not directly equating the situations but Chase Claypool is the extreme example of how far you can fall in the NFL when you lose your competitive edge.   I think Coleman's lapse was likely temporary but now that is part of his history that people will be watching for.

It appeared to me Coleman checked out after his return last season.  He ran sloppy routes, and often didn't sell the route when it was a run play.  He looked disinterested.  I wondered if he lost his passion for football.  Once the fire goes out, its out.  From Twitter videos, it appears Keon is training hard.  I hope he is, and that he is laser focused for being a successful WR for the Bills

[Paup 1995MVP]

17 hours ago, folz said:

 

I expect Coleman will bounce back and basically be the starting WR2. I would think that 3 receiver sets generally will be Palmer, Coleman, and Shakir (with Samuel and Moore mixed in). But, I also don't expect Keon to have huge numbers. The Bills just have too many weapons, Josh and Brady are too good at spreading the ball around (6-8 players per game), we run a lot, and throw a lot of balls to the RBs and TEs.

 

So, last year the Bills had around 4,000 yards passing (3,938). The previous two years we averaged about 4,300 passing yards. I think the team is happy with the run/pass balance, but I could see passing yards go up slightly, and I could also see the RBs passing targets going down a little (not too much though, it's a big part of the offense)---both because of more confidence in the receiving corps. Last year, our WRs combined for 2,400 yards exactly (amongst 7 players). So, let's bump that up slightly and say approx. 2,700 yards to the WRs this year. Last year, our WRs had 17 combined TDs. So, again, let's bump that slightly to say 20. [I understand this is all pure speculation, just taking a guess here.]

 

So, I wouldn't be surprised if our top 3 WRs (barring injuries) are all in the 700-900 yards range with 5-7 TDs each. That would leave 300-400 yards between Samuel and Moore. So, let's say Shakir at 850 yards and 5-6 TDs, Palmer at 750 yards with 5-6 TDs, and Coleman 800 yards and 6-7 TDs. (Or reverse Palmer and Coleman.)

 

The Tight ends combined for 800 yards last year (4 players). If Jackson Hawes is ready to play right away, I could see Knox losing some snaps---which would mean more targets for Kincaid because Hawes will be blocking more than going out on routes. I think they do really like Davidson too, but he'll still be fighting for snaps. Kincaid had 448 yards and 2 TDs last year. I would like him to be featured more, so I'm hoping his production will jump to say 700 yards and 5 TDs range.

 

My guesses above would give our top 4 targets about 3,100 yards and 21 TDs. That would leave approx. 1,100-1,200 passing yards (based on our last 3 years averaged passing yards) between Samuel, Moore, Knox, Cook, Davis, and Johnson. Those players (minus Moore) combined for 1,295 yards last year. So, I may be a bit off somewhere...but I think it will play out similar to last year (everybody eats), but with a bit of an increase for say targets #2-#4 [with added confidence in Coleman (2nd year), Palmer (better than what we had last year), and Kincaid (3rd year/using Hawes as a blocker)]. 🤷‍♂️

 

Thanks for responding w a nice analysis. 
 

a couple questions:

 

Where do our passing numbers rank last year and over the past 3 years overall in the NFL?

 

What about a bigger role for Elijah Moore?  The guy has been a good receiver on some teams with bad QB’s.  Was a high 2nd round pick.  And still may have upside to his game. 
 

I wish we threw the ball down the field more having such a special QB in Josh Allen.  But understand that our O line is a really good run blocking line.  And I think the run game overall seems to be more back in vogue in the NFL.  
 

Let’s hope for some breakout games and seasons for Kincaid and Coleman.  

[Pete]

2 hours ago, Krakensabres said:

Ok but we scored 29 in a playoff game at KC - and lost. Those are not “ regular season points.” 
 

if we had a whiff of a defense again a pretty poor version of the chiefs offense we win handily 

True.  And if our highest scoring season offense could of scored on at least one of the last two drives of the game.  A TD drive would of given Bills the lead.  The offense was 0-2, after being set up by the defense at the end of the game.

[Paup 1995MVP]

12 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Id argue Cole Beasley was the 2nd most important player his first 2-3years here.  Cool thing with a good slot is volume. Cole had volume for days.  Was like a super running back, in that he got tons of touches and was great at getting us to: 2nd-n-short, or more importantly converting 3rd downs.  I tend to agree with you. i know an outside guy effects the entire defense more than a slot..... but a slot who gets volume is my fav type of weapon.  its steady and reliable. watched brady use that for 2 decades

Beasley was tremendous for us.  Guy could always get open.  And always got the first down.  He got the most out of his ability his entire NFL career.  And that was at a very high level for what he did.  What more could you ask for?  
 

A guy on today’s roster who I get a similar vibe about-though not in not quite as prominent a role, but still gets the most out of his abilities every play is Ty Johnson.  Always makes plays when called upon.  And is just a very good football player.  

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Can you explain what about him makes you think big slot? I just wanna see the dude put in a position to catch the ball and get YAC.  He did look filthy on those slants, for as slow as he is, his top end speed SEEMS fast af.  Why is it easier to catch the ball off slants from the slot, then say the Z.... neither is on the line.  Is it just, in principal, facing a #3 corner instead of a #2? Im tryna learn GBill!

 

Oh he can totally play the Z and run the WR screens, the slants and the quick hitches. The issue is you can't be a Z receiver only running those 3 routes. Whereas you can still run those routes from the slot and, as with your other routes, you will get a lot of free releases off the line. That aids Keon's route running because when he gets to dicatate his spacing he is better than when it is contested when he has the tendency to play to contact.