Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[Jalan81]

On 5/21/2025 at 5:08 PM, oldmanfan said:

Continual improvement is always the goal.  But it’s not like our offense was bad last year.

Nope, it just couldn’t perform when it needed to. And forcing the Allen sneak after it had been stopped a few times was foolish. 

[Jalan81]

On 5/22/2025 at 11:38 AM, billsfan89 said:

 

I rarely thought Brady made bad play calls designs, I think where he has to improve is having a few more layers to his offense and I think much like Andy Reid has his "S Level" stuff for the playoffs I think Brady has to develop that extra set of plays to keep in his back pocket. I feel like KC will probably keep 10% of their playbook off film during the regular season only to unleash it throughout the playoffs (likely I would assume practicing the plays in closed settings throughout the season to keep them sharp). I would like to see the Bills have that type of elite level plays that they save for key situations. 

It does kind of make one look bad complaining about an offense that for the most part performed above expectations. But this offense in the end failed to convert a short distance which wasn’t the only reason but still ended the season. Too often during the season receivers ended up in the same area, separation was terrible, Josh always seems to have to thread the needle. Can scheme help alleviate this? Too many times receivers who completed their routs would stop running or did not return towards Allen to help him when he left the pocket. Too many times we ran plays that weren’t working IE the wide receiver screen. Most of this is easy to fix, I hope they do. It seems we rely on Allen to be Superhuman way too much.

[SoonerBillsFan]

44 minutes ago, Jalan81 said:

Nope, it just couldn’t perform when it needed to. And forcing the Allen sneak after it had been stopped a few times was foolish. 

The difference between the Bills and Chiefs, had the Bills stuffed it on KC the KC would have tried it to the right instead of continually going left.   Faked the push and pitched or threw to a TE over the middle.

 

 

This is what has been eluded to on both sides of the ball, no adjustments when needed.  Brady just kept calling it to the left.

[BillsFanForever19]

On 5/16/2025 at 10:18 PM, GASabresIUFan said:

By the way, Beane knows he blew the Coleman pick.  (40 4.61)

 

Since he made that pick, all the skill players on both sides of the ball have speed. 

 

At WR were have added Palmer (4.52 @ 6'1 210), Moore (4.35), and Prather (4.46),   

AT DB & S: Bishop (4.45), Forest (4.41), Hancock (4.42), Hairston (4.28), Strong (4.50)

 

4.45, 4.50, 4.52 while not being slow, isn't what i'd consider "fast" either. If 4.61 is turtle show, a tenth of a second faster isn't blazing. Hairston - that's fast.

 

You think he didn't know his timed speed was 4.61 when he Drafted him? Like Beane's a GM that had to Draft someone at 4.61 to determine whether or not it would work?

 

If Beane knows "he blew the pick" and was sure Keon Coleman is incapable of taking a step in Year 2, he'd have done something more than just replacing Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins with Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore and not Drafting a WR until UDFA Camp Body territory in the 7th.

 

Honestly, I wish he did think he blew the pick as you imply. Maybe he would have tried to get Metcalf.

Edited 17 hours ago by BillsFanForever19

[BillsFanForever19]

14 hours ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

I looked at some stats and I think think one important WR stat is WR targets. How much was Josh throwing Coleman the ball ?

 

Since Lions game when Coleman came back, he wasn't getting alot of targets

 

-Detroit 2 targets 

-NE 2 targets 

-Jets 7 targets for 27 yards

-NE game excluded, no Josh

-Den playoff 3 tgts for 5 yds

-Bal playoff 1 targets

-Chiefs 4 targets 12 yards

 

What is the cause of such few targets?

 

-Did Josh just have alot of other options in passing game ?

- too much running with Cook ?

- Brady not able to scheme him open

- Coleman not getting open ?

 

I'm starting to think more and more it's Brady not being able to counter move what DCs are showing him.

 

His schemes start off good but he doesn't know how to adjust after DCs adjust to his first set of plays

 

The long bomb is just not his strong suit. He hits one every now and then. But more often than not, he just misses over or under. He can throw it a mile, but he's never really gotten down being able to throw it long accurately with any sort of regularity.

 

Luckily, he makes up for that by being an absolute beast in practically every other facet of his game. It's not dialed up often by Brady because of that fact. They're low percentage throws.

[Pete]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

The long bomb is just not his strong suit. He hits one every now and then. But more often than not, he just misses over or under. He can throw it a mile, but he's never really gotten down being able to throw it long accurately with any sort of regularity.

 

Luckily, he makes up for that by being an absolute beast in practically every other facet of his game. It's not dialed up often by Brady because of that fact. They're low percentage throws.

John Brown and Robert Foster disagree 

[DJB]

Unfortunately if Coleman doesn’t take a step and Beanes addition of Palmer fails miserably, the 2026 draft is very weak for the WR position 

 

2027 WR is stacked however with J Smith WR OSU likely the first overall pick. 

Edited 11 hours ago by DJB

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, DJB said:

Unfortunately if Coleman doesn’t take a step and Beanes addition of Palmer fails miserably, the 2026 draft is very weak for the WR position 

 

2027 WR is stacked however with J Smith WR OSU likely the first overall pick. 

 

Since the Bills are already doomed before Memorial Day, why not plan for the 2026 and 2027 drafts just like in "the good old days" of the Drought Era?

 

[BarleyNY]

12 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

The difference between the Bills and Chiefs, had the Bills stuffed it on KC the KC would have tried it to the right instead of continually going left.   Faked the push and pitched or threw to a TE over the middle.

 

 

This is what has been eluded to on both sides of the ball, no adjustments when needed.  Brady just kept calling it to the left.

 

I was praying for a fake sneak and quick hit to a TE. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

11 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I was praying for a fake sneak and quick hit to a TE. 

It would have worked.

[BarleyNY]

9 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

It would have worked.

I think so. No guts, no glory. Gotta take some chances like that. 

[Jalan81]

14 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

The difference between the Bills and Chiefs, had the Bills stuffed it on KC the KC would have tried it to the right instead of continually going left.   Faked the push and pitched or threw to a TE over the middle.

 

 

This is what has been eluded to on both sides of the ball, no adjustments when needed.  Brady just kept calling it to the left.

Exactly!!!! Complete stupidity, too predictable.  Easily fixable you would hope. 

[folz]

On 5/16/2025 at 10:04 PM, sven233 said:

The fact is, if you can't get open in college, you are not going to get open in the NFL. 

 

And no Quaterback can improve their completion percentage from college to the NFL, right?

 

On 5/16/2025 at 10:18 PM, GASabresIUFan said:

By the way, Beane knows he blew the Coleman pick.  (40 4.61)

 

Since he made that pick, all the skill players on both sides of the ball have speed. 

 

At WR were have added Palmer (4.52 @ 6'1 210), Moore (4.35), and Prather (4.46),   

AT DB & S: Bishop (4.45), Forest (4.41), Hancock (4.42), Hairston (4.28), Strong (4.50)

 

 

 

This is just silly. There is no way that Beane thinks he blew this pick already. You don't write any player off after their rookie year as a coach or GM (or you won't have your job for long). Plus, what do the defensive players have to do with anything in relation to the speed of a WR? Also, it's called team building. #1 WR priority according to the Bills at the time was get a bigger guy who can block and get 50/50 balls. They drafted Keon. Now we have that, let's go after our second priority. A guy or some guys with speed. It's not some admission of quilt. Again, it's team building. You don't keep bringing in the same type of player over and over, you have to fill certain roles, have diversity. And it's not like 4.52 and 4.46 are blazing speeds (as far as Beane bringing in only speed players).

 

On 5/17/2025 at 1:42 AM, Richard Noggin said:

Offense seemed to SHINE with smaller, faster, better separators (and different OC). Maybe that was a specific "era" in the NFL, but Allen sure seemed to flourish with guys who got OPEN. Imagine that lol.

 

And our team would get bullied late in the year and in the playoffs by bigger, stronger teams. There has to be a balance.

 

 

 

In the 2024 draft, 11 wide receivers were selected in the first two rounds (the first 52 picks). Seven of those WRs were picked before Keon. Here is what the stats of all of those receivers were after week 8 of last year (just before Keon's injury):

 

Pick   Player              Targets    Recs   Yards   TDs      Team (# of team passing plays)

  4      M. Harrison        50          26       411        5         Arizona (543)

  6      M. Nabers          94          46      498       3          NYG (591)

  9      R. Odunze          44          25       391       1          Chicago (566)

 23     B. Thomas         49          33       573       5         Jacksonville (546)

 28     X. Worthy           39          19       235       3         Kansas City (600)

 31     R. Pearsall           9             7         59        0         San Fran (533)

 32     X. Legette          35          22       211        3         Carolina (547)

 33     K. Coleman        36          22       417       3          Buffalo (520)

 34     L. McConkey     52          35       440      4          LA Chargers (510)

 37     J. Polk                27           10         78       1          New England (529)

 52     A. Mitchell         31            11         118       0         Indianapolis (513)

 

At the time of his injury, Keon's stats were not looking bad in comparison to the other rookies. especially considering:

-Nine of those eleven teams threw the ball more than the Bills did overall in 2024 (Bills had a 49/51 run/pass split and 42% of our passing plays went to RBs and TEs). Plus, some of those teams do not have the number of other targets/weapons as say Buf, KC, SF. Not as many balls to go around on such teams.

-The disparity in number of targets. For instance, Malik Nambers had 58 more targets than Keon in that span. Tough to compare say yards between the guys who had a lot more opportunities (targets) than the others. And yet, at that time, with the 7th fewest targets (of the 11 players), he was 4th in total yards and tied for 3rd in TDs.

 

There was no way we were going to be able to go up and get Harrison, Nabers, or Odunze. We probably could have swung for Thomas. And obviously, we could have picked Worthy, Pearsall, Legette, McConkey, Polk, or Mitchell---but they chose Keon. And before the injury, McConkey was the only WR that we could have chosen (where we were) that had better stats than Keon. But as others have said, McConkey is more a slot and not the type of WR we wanted/needed (same for Worthy---we weren't looking for a speed guy at that time). So, I'm having a hard time seeing any other move the Bills should have made as far as WR is concerned (other than possibly moving up for Thomas---but we would have had to have a trade partner too, who knows if that was available or not).

 

Yes, Keon struggled coming back from the injury. I think that was two-fold. First off, he was out for almost 5 games starting in week 7 (probably tough for any rookie to acclimate back after that amount of time out). But, that is also the week that Amari arrived. Curtis Samuel got healthy around week 9. And Mack's target share went up a bit also. The offense continued to roll with Keon out and Amari, Curtis, and Mack getting more targets. So, when Keon came back, there was no need to force him in. Just keep rolling with what is working. And I think a rookie coming back from his first major injury to a much smaller role may have gotten in Keon's head a bit. He may have been a bit skittish from the hit. Worried about coming back too soon. A little depressed that his role had decreased, etc. But, again, he was a rookie. Give the kid time to grow, mature, learn, get more experience.

 

It's seems strange to me to write off a high draft-pick rookie who got injured and missed 5 games his rookie season. Have some patience guys. I personally think that he's going to come back with a fire in his belly this year. Just seems like that kind of a kid to me.

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by folz

[Paup 1995MVP]

43 minutes ago, folz said:

 

And no Quaterback can improve their completion percentage from college to the NFL, right?

 

 

This is just silly. There is no way that Beane thinks he blew this pick already. You don't write any player off after their rookie year as a coach or GM (or you won't have your job for long). Plus, what do the defensive players have to do with anything in relation to the speed of a WR? Also, it's called team building. #1 WR priority according to the Bills at the time was get a bigger guy who can block and get 50/50 balls. They drafted Keon. Now we have that, let's go after our second priority. A guy or some guys with speed. It's not some admission of quilt. Again, it's team building. You don't keep bringing in the same type of player over and over, you have to fill certain roles, have diversity. And it's not like 4.52 and 4.46 are blazing speeds (as far as Beane bringing in only speed players).

 

 

And our team would get bullied late in the year and in the playoffs by bigger, stronger teams. There has to be a balance.

 

 

 

In the 2024 draft, 11 wide receivers were selected in the first two rounds (the first 52 picks). Seven of those WRs were picked before Keon. Here is what the stats of all of those receivers were after week 8 of last year (just before Keon's injury):

 

Pick   Player              Targets    Recs   Yards   TDs      Team (# of team passing plays)

  4      M. Harrison        50          26       411        5         Arizona (543)

  6      M. Nabers          94          46      498       3          NYG (591)

  9      R. Odunze          44          25       391       1          Chicago (566)

 23     B. Thomas         49          33       573       5         Jacksonville (546)

 28     X. Worthy           39          19       235       3         Kansas City (600)

 31     R. Pearsall           9             7         59        0         San Fran (533)

 32     X. Legette          35          22       211        3         Carolina (547)

 33     K. Coleman        36          22       417       3          Buffalo (520)

 34     L. McConkey     52          35       440      4          LA Chargers (510)

 37     J. Polk                27           10         78       1          New England (529)

 52     A. Mitchell         31            11         118       0         Indianapolis (513)

 

At the time of his injury, Keon's stats were not looking bad in comparison to the other rookies. especially considering:

-Nine of those eleven teams threw the ball more than the Bills did overall in 2024 (Bills had a 49/51 run/pass split and 42% of our passing plays went to RBs and TEs). Plus, some of those teams do not have the number of other targets/weapons as say Buf, KC, SF. Not as many balls to go around on such teams.

-The disparity in number of targets. For instance, Malik Nambers had 58 more targets than Keon in that span. Tough to compare say yards between the guys who had a lot more opportunities (targets) than the others. And yet, at that time, with the 7th fewest targets (of the 11 players), he was 4th in total yards and tied for 3rd in TDs.

 

There was no way we were going to be able to go up and get Harrison, Nabers, or Odunze. We probably could have swung for Thomas. And obviously, we could have picked Worthy, Pearsall, Legette, McConkey, Polk, or Mitchell---but they chose Keon. And before the injury, McConkey was the only WR that we could have chosen (where we were) that had better stats than Keon. But as others have said, McConkey is more a slot and not the type of WR we wanted/needed (same for Worthy---we weren't looking for a speed guy at that time). So, I'm having a hard time seeing any other move the Bills should have made as far as WR is concerned (other than possibly moving up for Thomas---but we would have had to have a trade partner too, who knows if that was available or not).

 

Yes, Keon struggled coming back from the injury. I think that was two-fold. First off, he was out for almost 5 games starting in week 7 (probably tough for any rookie to acclimate back after that amount of time out). But, that is also the week that Amari arrived. Curtis Samuel got healthy around week 9. And Mack's target share went up a bit also. The offense continued to roll with Keon out and Amari, Curtis, and Mack getting more targets. So, when Keon came back, there was no need to force him in. Just keep rolling with what is working. And I think a rookie coming back from his first major injury to a much smaller role may have gotten in Keon's head a bit. He may have been a bit skittish from the hit. Worried about coming back too soon. A little depressed that his role had decreased, etc. But, again, he was a rookie. Give the kid time to grow, mature, learn, get more experience.

 

It's seems strange to me to write off a high draft-pick rookie who got injured and missed 5 games his rookie season. Have some patience guys. I personally think that he's going to come back with a fire in his belly this year. Just seems like that kind of a kid to me.

 

 

That’s quite an analysis of Coleman and the other rookie WR’s. 
 

what kind of numbers do you hope/expect Coleman and Kincaid to put up this coming season?

[3rdand12]

5 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I was praying for a fake sneak and quick hit to a TE. 

Quinton Morris would have been wide open

[BADOLBILZ]

13 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

The long bomb is just not his strong suit. He hits one every now and then. But more often than not, he just misses over or under. He can throw it a mile, but he's never really gotten down being able to throw it long accurately with any sort of regularity.

 

Luckily, he makes up for that by being an absolute beast in practically every other facet of his game. It's not dialed up often by Brady because of that fact. They're low percentage throws.

 

 

What Allen CAN do consistently that the Bills can't take advantage of with this WR corps is throw 30+ yard passes on a line.   He doesn't have great touch on throws that require air under them but he can throw to areas of the field on a rope that others have to throw with arc/anticipation.  Throws that are normally way out of a QB's range to make and where DB's are very vulnerable .  Allen's range as a passer of low trajectory throws actually opened up the field quite a bit for Gabe Davis,  who had the size to do work downfield but little else.  Hopefully Coleman can become a much better version of Gabe, at least.   But unless Allen can maintain his strong arm until the end, eventually he will have to find more consistency on touch/timing passes over the top to stay among the very best in the league as he ages.  

[Billl]

On 5/23/2025 at 11:22 AM, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

I looked at some stats and I think think one important WR stat is WR targets. How much was Josh throwing Coleman the ball ?

 

Since Lions game when Coleman came back, he wasn't getting alot of targets

 

-Detroit 2 targets 

-NE 2 targets 

-Jets 7 targets for 27 yards

-NE game excluded, no Josh

-Den playoff 3 tgts for 5 yds

-Bal playoff 1 targets

-Chiefs 4 targets 12 yards

 

What is the cause of such few targets?

 

-Did Josh just have alot of other options in passing game ?

- too much running with Cook ?

- Brady not able to scheme him open

- Coleman not getting open ?

 

I'm starting to think more and more it's Brady not being able to counter move what DCs are showing him.

 

His schemes start off good but he doesn't know how to adjust after DCs adjust to his first set of plays

 

 

After returning from his injury, he had 29 targets and caught 10 of them for 161 yards and 1 TD.  His complete lack of success when being targeted answers the question of why he got so few of them.  The worst game Allen has had in the past 5 years was against the Texans when he went 9/30 for 131 yards and a TD.  That production was eerily similar to what Coleman put up pops injury.  Why would anyone want more of that?

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, folz said:

 

I think a rookie coming back from his first major injury to a much smaller role may have gotten in Keon's head a bit. He may have been a bit skittish from the hit. Worried about coming back too soon. A little depressed that his role had decreased, etc. But, again, he was a rookie. Give the kid time to grow, mature, learn, get more experience.

 

I

 

 

 

 

If we are going to speculate on why Coleman struggled when he came back I'd say it's more likely that he had mentally checked out on the season during his recovery.   Coleman is not a guy who was used to playing football in December and January to begin with.   It's hard to be any good in the NFL unless you are all-in mentally and physically.   I'm not directly equating the situations but Chase Claypool is the extreme example of how far you can fall in the NFL when you lose your competitive edge.   I think Coleman's lapse was likely temporary but now that is part of his history that people will be watching for.