Beane elaborates on the process of picking Josh Allen

[chris heff]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Les Snead is about the only GM who built a SB winner essentially outside of the draft.

 

Written off Bishop? McD had him take 5 or fewer snaps on D in 9 or 16 games in the regular season.  Talk to him.

 

Hyde was a great Safety. Poyer was a coattail riding pile jumper (see him in Miami).  Beane wasn't involved in signing them.

 

Beane gave up a 1st round pick for predictable headache Diggs.  Predictably, the Bills had enough of him and got a 2nd for him at least.  That's better than he did with Elam--a solid bust who, by his 3rd season, McD hardly played him at all.  Beane turned that 1st round pick into a 5th and 7th.  Nice.

 

Shakir is the second best (really, 1 of 2) decent receivers Beane has drafted in 8 years.  Slot receiver though---he was 5th in YAC (receivers only), not 2nd (the Bills as a team were 2nd).  Not sure of the importance of that 1 stat.  

 

Coleman is a WR3 in a room stuffed now with WR3/4s.  Extrapolation is a meaningless exercise.  In the final 2 games of the season he had 17 targets for 5 catches and 58 yards.  In the next 3 playoff games he had a total of 8 targets, 3 catches for 22 yards.  No reason to believe he was going to get 750 yards if he played every regular season game.

 

Is Andy Reid still talking about drafting Mahomes?  Roseman going on about Hurts?--one or both of them have played in 5 of the past 6 SBs.

George Allen almost did.

 

Diggs was worth the gamble, Bills could have not traded and picked WR Jalen Reagor in the 2020 draft, like the aforementioned Howie Roseman did.

Extrapolation is a form of prediction, kind of like drafts.

 

Reid and Roseman didn’t have two podcasters, that both wanted the Bills to draft Josh Rosen again questioning Beane and his staff. I knew nothing about Josh Allen, but I was pretty sure Rosen was a bum, I wanted to Jackson.

 

Which QB did you want in that draft?

 

[folz]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Getting up to 7 was a relatively easy move.   7 shouldn't have gotten it done though.   Allen was the type of high ceiling QB who goes #1 overall more years than not.   Warts and all.   It took an astonishingly stupid move by John Elway and Denver to allow Allen to fall there.   I had followed Allen's season and it was no secret that Elway was personally scouting him.  

 

There was a lot more luck involved than brilliance in getting him at 7.    But Beane has my eternal gratitude because he actually did what I had been imploring Bills GM's to do forever.   Pick a QB with that very first pick and run with it.

 

The argument about whether it would have been worth the cost to move up more if it meant more premium picks should be in perspective when it comes to the QB position.  The people who seem to over-value those picks the most are the people who follow the draft casually.   Which is the majority of fans/media.   I know for a FACT that a 1st round pick is the most overrated personnel chip a team has.   Casual followers just have short memories about the picks.  Not having #1 picks is not certain disaster.   The McBeane Bills have overcome a ton of very disappointing 1st and 2nd round picks.   Those misses aren't why they haven't won a SB.

 

Getting to 7 was not that easy. It took two separate trades, giving up 4 picks and a player to do so. And as others have said, no one in the top 6 was willing to budge. I'm sure they offered quite a bit to the Giants to try and get up to #2. But were denied. But you somehow fault Beane (or call him lucky) for not giving up more assets to get higher? You have no idea what they offered to move up. Plus, the only luck was Cleveland not taking Josh at one. And if they had, that wouldn't have been on Beane, you are not getting a QB-hungry team out of the first spot in what was considered an all-time QB draft (at the time). Everyone knew the Jets were in on Darnold and no one in the top 6 besides Cleveland wanted a QB. Maybe Denver debated about it, but ultimately they went with Chubb (obviously were not totally sold on Josh). Elway was going to trade the pick to Buffalo if Chubb wasn't there, so they were NOT picking Josh. How about you? You knock Beane for not being more aggressive to get Josh. [Still got him btw.] Was he your first pick QB in that draft? And if I remember correctly (and I think I do), there was an image that came out after the draft at some point that showed Josh was actually at the top of their board of the QBs. You can deny it, but everything points to the Bills wanted Allen most of all of the QBs that year (unlike most Bills fans at the time).

 

As to a TON of VERY disappointing 1st and 2nd round picks, well, let's take a look:

 

1st round: Josh Allen, Ed Oliver, Tremaine Edmunds, Greg Rousseau, Kaiir Elam, Dalton Kincaid

2nd round: Cody Ford, AJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham, James Cook, O'Cyrus Torrence, Cole Bishop, Keon Coleman

 

13 picks total. I see 3 Busts (Ford, Elam, Boogie). I wouldn't be surprised if you looked at other teams last 13 1st and 2nd round picks, you would probably find at least 3 busts as well--or more (and many of those teams were drafting higher than us). So, 3 busts, 2 studs (Josh and Jimbo), 3 players close to stud-level (Rousseau, Oliver, Torrence), 2 players that it's still too early to tell (Coleman and Bishop), and 3 players that are solid players, but didn't quite reach their draft status (Edmunds, Epenesa, Kincaid---though I still think Kincaid will).

 

It's not a homerun by any means (outside of Josh and Jimbo), but it's also not as bad as you make it out to be. Plus, with the three busts, Beane at least turned them into a 5th and two 6ths (got something for nothing at least). Those picks turned into Justin Shorter, Jordan Hancock, and Dorian Strong. Shorter was not a great pick, but if Hancock and Strong do well, at least we didn't come away with nothing. Oh and btw, no matter how bad we think he is, Ford is still a starting offensive lineman in the league (so a bust for us, but not a total washout in the league). And not that it says much, but Kaiir and Boogie are still in the league too (probably won't be starters though, obviously---or have a long career it appears).

 

Again, you must have context to things. For instance, people bring up Howie Roseman and the Eagles as an example of picking impact players (in contrast to Beane). But, they always fail to note that over the last 4 years the Eagles have picked significantly higher than we have. Here are the 1st and 2nd round picks the Eagles (8 picks) and the Bills (7 picks) have had in the first two rounds over the last 4 years.

Philly picks: 9, 10, 13, 21, 30, 37, 51, 53

Bills picks: 23, 25, 30, 54, 59, 61. 63

 

Don't you think that maybe if the roles were reversed (pick-wise) Brandon would have some more impact players on the team? They had 4 picks higher than our best pick. If you averaged all of the picks together, that equates to Philly picking 28th and the Bills picking 45th.

 

 

 

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Beane colors his stories to accentuate his positives.   I understand that some of you can't see that but that's because he's good at it.   I've said it since he got here,  he isn't much of a scout but he is a GREAT executive.   And that's what the Pegula's needed more than anything back in 2017.    But consider the simple fact that it's 2025 and he had to go on WGR and say "it's 2018 all over again with you guys".   Because he hasn't drafted a single difference maker since then.   With all due respect to Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau they aren't in that category.   Cook is a RB so you aren't necessarily even going to see him on the field on 3rd and long with the game on the line(as we saw in the AFCCG).   They don't have a 2-4 man core of difference makers like most championship contenders.......as McDermott lamented at seasons end.

 

Doesn't everyone color their stories to accentuate the positives. It is a fairly human trait imo. And it's also a business that is trying to make money. Of course they are going to try and put a good face on everything. Every team does it. Every company does it. Plus, it seems a bit condescending to tell all of us that we just aren't prescient enough to see through all of Beane's lies, scams, and political speak. Beane has actually been one of the most open and honest GMs or coaches I have seen in the league in a while. Sure, there are some things he needs to keep close to the vest for competitive reasons, etc. But this idea that Beane is trying to get over on the fans, and plans and creates elaborate stunts to do so is bull imo. He has often admitted mistakes (such as letting Wyatt Teller go). Even in his press conference after this year's draft he talked about missing at CB (Elam) and mentioned picking Boogie. He is not some ego-maniac who can't admit his mistakes or is always lying to make himself look better. 

[RoscoeParrish]

4 minutes ago, folz said:

Again, you must have context to things. For instance, people bring up Howie Roseman and the Eagles as an example of picking impact players (in contrast to Beane). But, they always fail to note that over the last 4 years the Eagles have picked significantly higher than we have. Here are the 1st and 2nd round picks the Eagles (8 picks) and the Bills (7 picks) have had in the first two rounds over the last 4 years.

Philly picks: 9, 10, 13, 21, 30, 37, 51, 53

Bills picks: 23, 25, 30, 54, 59, 61. 63

The Eagles traded for a lot of those top 10-15 picks FWIW.

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, chris heff said:

Technically yes, Whaley was a lame duck that they kept until after the daft, but McDermott was making all the decisions. Bean was let go by Carolina in 2016, McDermott knew he was bringing Bean on board, do you think they didn’t talk about Hyde and Poyer?

No.  I remember it being reported that Poyer being recommended by Babbich Sr. after coaching him in Cleveland.  McDermott and Frazier thought he'd fit in.  Hyde played well the previous  year in Green Bay and we had to overpay to get him.  Luckily, McDermott and staff turned him from a jack of all trades master of none into a pro bowl safety.  Beane didn't have much to do (if anything) with those signings.  They thought Mike Edwards might be a diamond in the rough last year.  He wasn't.  This year they're hoping the same from Forrest.

Edited yesterday at 12:43 AM by Doc Brown

[SoonerBillsFan]

7 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

No.  I remember it being reported that Poyer being recommended by Babbich Sr. after coaching him in Cleveland.  McDermott and Frazier thought he'd fit in.  Hyde played well the previous  year in Green Bay and we had to overpay to get him.  Luckily, McDermott and staff turned him from a jack of all trades master of none into a pro bowl safety.  Beane didn't have much to do (if anything) with those signings.  They thought Mike Edwards might be a diamond in the rough last year.  He wasn't.  This year they're hoping the same from Forrest.

If Forrest is over his break, he could be a beast.

[folz]

 

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Les Snead is about the only GM who built a SB winner essentially outside of the draft.

 

Written off Bishop? McD had him take 5 or fewer snaps on D in 9 or 16 games in the regular season.  Talk to him.

 

Hyde was a great Safety. Poyer was a coattail riding pile jumper (see him in Miami).  Beane wasn't involved in signing them.

 

Beane gave up a 1st round pick for predictable headache Diggs.  Predictably, the Bills had enough of him and got a 2nd for him at least.  That's better than he did with Elam--a solid bust who, by his 3rd season, McD hardly played him at all.  Beane turned that 1st round pick into a 5th and 7th.  Nice.

 

Shakir is the second best (really, 1 of 2) decent receivers Beane has drafted in 8 years.  Slot receiver though---he was 5th in YAC (receivers only), not 2nd (the Bills as a team were 2nd).  Not sure of the importance of that 1 stat.  

 

Coleman is a WR3 in a room stuffed now with WR3/4s.  Extrapolation is a meaningless exercise.  In the final 2 games of the season he had 17 targets for 5 catches and 58 yards.  In the next 3 playoff games he had a total of 8 targets, 3 catches for 22 yards.  No reason to believe he was going to get 750 yards if he played every regular season game.

 

Is Andy Reid still talking about drafting Mahomes?  Roseman going on about Hurts?--one or both of them have played in 5 of the past 6 SBs.

 

It seems you have a lot of negatives for a very good team. But, I'll just address the two bolded.

 

How are you so sure about Coleman yet? He was a rookie who had a pretty bad injury. You didn't seem to mention his injury, hmmm. He was out for 4-1/2 games. In the meantime, Hollins got more playing time, Samuel was finally healthy enough to get more snaps, and Amari was getting more snaps (after his addition). The offense adapted and changed with Keon out. And they were still being successful, so they ran with what they were doing (which meant fewer snaps for Keon on his return). Now, it also appears that something happened after the injury too. Sounds like maybe he either got a bit skittish or didn't work hard enough coming back from the injury (or a combination of both), based on what McD said at the end of the year. But, again, he was a rookie coming back from his first major injury to a diminished role. Give the kid some time to mature. The two games before the injury he had 170 yards and a TD. I don't think you should write off Keon so easily or so early.

 

And you do realize that Brandon was in an interview and was being asked questions right? Rich Eisen asked him specifically about drafting Josh, so he spoke about it. You make it sound like Beane went on with some agenda or something. If Reid or Roseman were asked about drafting Mahomes and Hurts in an interview, I'm sure they would answer. And do you watch all of the K.C. and Philly media? Have you seen all of Reid's and Roseman's interviews since drafting said players? I'm sure they've talked about drafting those guys plenty of times. Seriously, the lengths some of you guys go to to try and knock Beane...

[ganesh]

11 hours ago, uticaclub said:

Richardson & multiple other busts have also worked with Palmer. He's a smart coach, not a miracle worker.

It is also true that one size doesn’t fit all. What worked for Josh may not work for the others.  
 

allen is a unique player.  

[folz]

16 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

The Eagles traded for a lot of those top 10-15 picks FWIW.

 

They were also a 4-win team in 2020 and a 9-win team in 2021. [13-19 record compared to the Bills 24-9 record those two years.] 

 

[RoscoeParrish]

10 minutes ago, folz said:

 

They were also a 4-win team in 2020 and a 9-win team in 2021. [13-19 record compared to the Bills 24-9 record those two years.] 

 

That’s true. 
 

We were also a 9 win team in 2017 and a 6 win team in 2018.

[folz]

39 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

That’s true. 
 

We were also a 9 win team in 2017 and a 6 win team in 2018.

 

And that helped us to get Josh Allen and Ed Oliver. Two excellent players who have been with the team for 7 and 8 years now.

 

The reason I only went back 4 years with Philly is because those are the years that they drafted the "impact" players that people talk about.

I don't think we'd want to count Philly's 2019 1st-rounder Andre Dillard (19 starts for the Eagles in 6 years---backup O-lineman), or their 2020 1st-rounder Jalen Reagor, who only spent two years in Philly. Not quite "impact" players. I guess every GM makes mistakes.

 

People bring up Philly often, but they actually aren't a good comparison because of where they have drafted in comparison to the Bills over the last 4 years. I made a post a while back showing that the better comparisons are K.C. and Tampa, as they have drafted closer to where Buffalo has. In the post I compare the first 3 rounds of the last four drafts of those three teams (Buffalo, K.C., and Tampa) if you care to check it out.

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 01:48 AM by folz

[Doc]

10 minutes ago, folz said:

 

And that helped us to get Josh Allen and Ed Oliver. Two excellent players who have been with the team for 7 and 8 years now.

 

The reason I only went back 4 years with Philly is because those are the years that they drafted the "impact" players that people talk about.

I don't think we'd want to count Philly's 2019 1st-rounder Andre Dillard (19 starts for the Eagles in 6 years---backup O-lineman), or their 2020 1st-rounder Jalen Reagor, who only spent two years in Philly. Not quite "impact" players. I guess every GM makes mistakes.

 

People bring up Philly often, but they actually aren't a good comparison because of where they have drafted in comparison to the Bills over the last 4 years. I made a post a while back showing that the better comparisons are K.C. and Tampa, as they have drafted closer to where Buffalo have. In the post I compare the first 3 rounds of the last four drafts of those three teams (Buffalo, K.C., and Tampa) if you care to check it out.

 

 

 

 

Dillard and Reagor.  Woof.  Both high 20's picks.

[RoscoeParrish]

8 minutes ago, folz said:

 

And that helped us to get Josh Allen and Ed Oliver. Two excellent players who have been with the team for 7 and 8 years now.

 

The reason I only went back 4 years with Philly is because those are the years that they drafted the "impact" players that people talk about.

I don't think we'd want to count Philly's 2019 1st-rounder Andre Dillard (19 starts for the Eagles in 6 years---backup O-lineman), or their 2020 1st-rounder Jalen Reagor, who only spent two years in Philly. Not quite "impact" players. I guess every GM makes mistakes.

 

People bring up Philly often, but they actually aren't a good comparison because of where they have drafted in comparison to the Bills over the last 4 years. I made a post a while back showing that the better comparisons are K.C. and Tampa, as they have drafted closer to where Buffalo has. In the post I compare the first 3 rounds of the last four drafts of those three teams (Buffalo, K.C., and Tampa) if you care to check it out.

 

 

 

Is Ed Oliver really “excellent?” 
 

He was a top 10 pick and the second DT off the board. 
 

Are we sure he’s lived up to his draft status?

 

I’m fairly confident if you compared the Niners, Eagles and Chiefs drafts to our since 2017 you’d find a couple things:

 

#1 the average draft position isn’t THAT different

#2 all 3 teams have found more impact players than Buffalo

 

As interesting as it is to compare us to the Buccaneers, I don’t really consider them an obstacle to winning a Super Bowl. 

[GaryPinC]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Beane colors his stories to accentuate his positives.   I understand that some of you can't see that but that's because he's good at it.   I've said it since he got here,  he isn't much of a scout but he is a GREAT executive.   And that's what the Pegula's needed more than anything back in 2017.    But consider the simple fact that it's 2025 and he had to go on WGR and say "it's 2018 all over again with you guys".   Because he hasn't drafted a single difference maker since then.   With all due respect to Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau they aren't in that category.   Cook is a RB so you aren't necessarily even going to see him on the field on 3rd and long with the game on the line(as we saw in the AFCCG).   They don't have a 2-4 man core of difference makers like most championship contenders.......as McDermott lamented at seasons end.

I totally agree with you about Beane's overall drafting being disappointing.  If he were a better exec he would target some better d-line scouts.  

Any exec is going to spin themselves in the most positive light, as is almost anyone, it doesn't mean Allen wasn't Beane's #1 choice and he deserves full marks for it.

You may have felt Allen would be great from the beginning, but this casual fan took the time to watch all of Allen's college snaps I could find, and while he had great talent, at other times he made EJ Manuel bad decisions and locked on certain receivers.  Talent first-class, decision making, piss-poor.

 

Beane said he put a premium on Allen's leadership, competitiveness, and assessed intelligence and these carried the day in Allen's development as Allen willed and worked his way to better throwing fundamentals and decision making.  His talent alone wouldn't have been enough and Beane deserves full marks for recognizing Allen's strength to succeed.

[folz]

7 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Is Ed Oliver really “excellent?” 
 

He was a top 10 pick and the second DT off the board. 
 

Are we sure he’s lived up to his draft status?

 

I’m fairly confident if you compared the Niners, Eagles and Chiefs drafts to our since 2017 you’d find a couple things:

 

#1 the average draft position isn’t THAT different

#2 all 3 teams have found more impact players than Buffalo

 

As interesting as it is to compare us to the Buccaneers, I don’t really consider them an obstacle to winning a Super Bowl. 

 

I agree that Ed has never quite reached his draft status. At pick 9, yes, you're hoping for an Aaron Donald or the like---which Ed is not. But, he is still an excellent player in my opinion. Not elite, but very good. And I have a feeling he may have a big year, with a better line around him. But yes, you can knock the pick a bit because we could have traded back and still had Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence, or Jeffrey Simmons. So, it could have been a better pick, but it was by no means a bad pick.

 

And a challenge, huh? I already did K.C. (for 2021-2024) in the post I linked. But adding the Eagles and SF and going back to 2018 or 2017 (probably 2018 is the better choice, as 2017 wasn't a Beane draft), might take some time. The reason I included Tampa is because Buffalo, K.C., and Tampa are the only three teams to make the playoffs in each of the last 5 years, so they have relatively been drafting in the same range over that time. So, my purpose was to compare Buffalo's drafts to teams that were drafting in the same range as us to determine if Beane does better or worse on average with those teams. Again, I think it is an unfair comparison to compare Beane's drafts with teams that are drafting significantly higher than us.

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, finn said:

He's a unicorn, but his improved accuracy didn't just happen; he made it happen by committing himself to an offseason program with Palmer (forgot his first name). If Lance, Richardson, and other big-arm, athletic quarterbacks have shown similar single-minded devotion to improvement, I haven't heard of it. 

 

 

Yup. That and the fact that he hadn't been one of those coaching camp regulars that have their mechanics smoothed out early and get early exposure to everything.

[RoscoeParrish]

10 minutes ago, folz said:

And a challenge, huh? I already did K.C. (for 2021-2024) in the post I linked. But adding the Eagles and SF and going back to 2018 or 2017 (probably 2018 is the better choice, as 2017 wasn't a Beane draft), might take some time. The reason I included Tampa is because Buffalo, K.C., and Tampa are the only three teams to make the playoffs in each of the last 5 years, so they have relatively been drafting in the same range over that time. So, my purpose was to compare Buffalo's drafts to teams that were drafting in the same range as us to determine if Beane does better or worse on average with those teams. Again, I think it is an unfair comparison to compare Beane's drafts with teams that are drafting significantly higher than us.

You don’t have to do the work! I just thought it would be interesting, because the longer you go back, the more it corrects for draft position.

 

Like Buffalo having 2 first rounders in the first 16 picks in 2018 or a top 10 pick in 2019.

 

It’s not that we haven’t had those higher picks. It’s that other than Josh, they haven’t been truly great imo. 
 

If one of Tremaine/Oliver/Ford was All-Pro status, I think Beane’s resume looks quite different.

 

I also don’t think it’s fair to hold it against GMs who were savvy enough to make trades to end up with higher picks. The Chiefs haven’t missed the playoffs in 10 years, but still got Mahomes at 10. The Eagles turned their one down year into multiple first rounders over the years. 

Edited yesterday at 02:34 AM by RoscoeParrish

[BillsFanForever19]

14 hours ago, finn said:

He's a unicorn, but his improved accuracy didn't just happen; he made it happen by committing himself to an offseason program with Palmer (forgot his first name). If Lance, Richardson, and other big-arm, athletic quarterbacks have shown similar single-minded devotion to improvement, I haven't heard of it. 

 

That's not enough for the 99.9% of inaccurate QB's coming from College. All the work in the world doesn't fix that. You think guys like Lance and the many, many big arm athletic QB's who were inaccurate simply didn't work hard enough?

 

There's a reason Richardson is training with Josh Allen this offseason. He's done something that no one else has ever done. And for anyone else not named Josh Allen, what he can show them most likely won't matter.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

The Eagles traded for a lot of those top 10-15 picks FWIW.

 

 

Really? In the last four years, you say? I only see one, from 15 up to 13. And a few other small moves a bit further back.

 

The last five years, in which the Bills never won less than 11 games, the Bird had one year when they won four games and one year of 9-8. That helps your draft slots.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

18 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

You don’t have to do the work! I just thought it would be interesting, because the longer you go back, the more it corrects for draft position.

 

Like Buffalo having 2 first rounders in the first 16 picks in 2018 or a top 10 pick in 2019.

 

It’s not that we haven’t had those higher picks. It’s that other than Josh, they haven’t been truly great imo. 
 

If one of Tremaine/Oliver/Ford was All-Pro status, I think Beane’s resume looks quite different.

 

I also don’t think it’s fair to hold it against GMs who were savvy enough to make trades to end up with higher picks. The Chiefs haven’t missed the playoffs in 10 years, but still got Mahomes at 10. The Eagles turned their one down year into multiple first rounders over the years. 

 

 

That bit about the Bills and Eagles evening out the further you go back is only if you go back specifically to 2018. The reason Beane  had high picks in 2018 had a lot to do with McDermott trading way back in 2017 to get higher to be able to pick a QB in 2018.

 

So in 2017 the Eagles picked 14th while the Bills picked 27th.

 

And you can't expect Ford to be All-Pro, he was a 2nd rounder. All-Pro would have been a very significant over-performance. Edmunds at 16 got two Pro Bowls, that's meeting expectations. Oliver has been a bit below expectations, but everyone has some of those.

 

The Chiefs did indeed trade up for Mahomes, from 27th to 10th. And the Bills traded up for Allen. Traded up almost as far, from 21st to 7th in two steps. So if you want to give the Chiefs credit for savvy you have to do the same for the Bills.

 

[Gunsgoodtime]

On 5/10/2025 at 11:21 PM, Turbo44 said:

Or benford or Bernard or brown or cook or Johnson or Shakir or Torrence….. waiting patiently

Waiting for him to draft more than 1 elite player in a decade?