James Cook absent from OTA's

[DCofNC]

8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Literally no one is trying to justify that. My post you quoted in this shows how we get his average down to under $11M/yr.

 

A 4/$60M extension means we have him at 5/$65. Add on even 1 void year, and it goes down to 6/$65M.

 

 

yeah, so that’s not how that works, but if you want to have massive dead cap implications over a RB who you admit isn’t elite, I guess it makes sense.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Mister Defense said:

 

Bad business would be letting your elite back, a cornerstone of the offense and Josh's success, one of the fastest backs in the NFl, with elite vision, great receiving ability... leave your team and force them to roll the dice with another back instead, risking the Bills regressing on offense for the first time since before dorsey was thrown out.

 

It is a sport, a business yes, but a sport, where it is very important to look at it as such, and not be so concerned that  some say running backs are not worth big contracts.  No evidence, reasoning, whatsover that  I have seen to support that.

 

But it is  a fundamental point in almost all of those discounting Cook's worth to the team--but never supported, never shown to be any truer than saying a wide receiver is not either, or a guard, or a D tackle, or a D end.... Just some nonsense some in the media threw out there a few years ago, and then taken as gospel by some.

 

 

 

I think i can provide a few reasons:

 

1 - I think the rate of injury factors into it considerably - afaik its one of the highest injury rates by position.  You want the money you spend to be on the field not in the trainers room.  CMC is a good example here. 

 

2 - How much of it is coaching and offensive line?  Barkley was pretty crappy in NY and then amazing in Philly.  How much of that goes to him vs. better coaching and offensive line? 

 

3 - The fluctuation between good seasons and bad also is a factor.  Mostert is a good example.  

 

4 - Age and injury drop-off.  These can sometimes seem like absolute cliff dive drop-offs. 

 

5 - Bad contracts that have been given out.  Bell comes to mind.  CMC.  Gurley.  Zeke.  

 

[DCofNC]

Just now, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I think i can provide a few reasons:

 

1 - I think the rate of injury factors into it considerably - afaik its one of the highest injury rates by position.  You want the money you spend to be on the field not in the trainers room.  CMC is a good example here. 

 

2 - How much of it is coaching and offensive line?  Barkley was pretty crappy in NY and then amazing in Philly.  How much of that goes to him vs. better coaching and offensive line? 

 

3 - The fluctuation between good seasons and bad also is a factor.  Mostert is a good example.  

 

4 - Age and injury drop-off.  These can sometimes seem like absolute cliff dive drop-offs. 

 

5 - Bad contracts that have been given out.  Bell comes to mind.  CMC.  Gurley.  Zeke.  

 

I’m good with all of that, but point 2 is patently false. 

[Rocky Landing]

3 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

Notice you took out Robinson to help prove a point.    Outside of the offensive line, Barkley and Gibbs are elite receiving threats.  Can we all admit that Cook while ok in that respect can also be frustrating to watch catch the ball?  Do we really want to compare Cook and Henry as runners or blockers?   Listen I really like the guy too.  I'd love to see him on the Bills for a few more years.  But lets be realistic about who is beyond our emotional attachment to him.

 

 

Ty Johnson is the better receiver, and it isn't close.

[klos63]

3 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

Notice you took out Robinson to help prove a point.    Outside of the offensive line, Barkley and Gibbs are elite receiving threats.  Can we all admit that Cook while ok in that respect can also be frustrating to watch catch the ball?  Do we really want to compare Cook and Henry as runners or blockers?   Listen I really like the guy too.  I'd love to see him on the Bills for a few more years.  But lets be realistic about who is beyond our emotional attachment to him.

 

 

The Falcons oline is rated better than the Eagles.

Happy now?

No,  he's not frustrating to watch catch the ball,  he's had drops,  those are the frustrating ones,  but when they throw to him he's dynamic.  

Watch his highlights from last season,  he really had a tremendous year. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Rocky Landing said:

Ty Johnson is the better receiver, and it isn't close.

 

Ty Johnson is a ONE down back!

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, DCofNC said:

I’m good with all of that, but point 2 is patently false. 

 

He went from 962 yards and a 3.9 YPC to 2005 and a 5.8 YPC average.  3 years before he had 593 and a 3.7 YPC average.  I don't know how you can say its "false".  

 

Swift went from 1049 and 4.6 YPC with philly, to 959 and 3.8 YPC after leaving.  

[DrDawkinstein]

7 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

that was 30 seconds of my life I should have used better,

 

The best point youve made so far.

[BillsFan130]

3 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

The bills do need cook to win.  

 

He won't get the 15 million he asked for but why does he get so much hate and ignorance for asking for it.  He is worth a lot.  He is a fantastic weapon.

 

He accounted for 19 touchdowns last year and helped set up a bunch more he didn't get to touch the ball on and punch it in.  

 

Cook rushed for 272 yards in the playoffs, 15 runs were for first downs and he scored 3 td's one which was in incredible play vs KC.  Important to note they played three of the best defenses in the league in the playoffs in Denver, Baltimore and KC. 

 

People acting like he is some bum who can be replaced by anybody in the 6th round will be the first ones to complain when he is gone the big plays from the running game go bye bye.

 

 

The one game cook missed, Ray Davis had 150 scrimmage yards.

 

Are the bills a better team with cook? For sure- But at what cost?

 

I would much rather a day 2 pick next year at cost control for 4 years paired up with Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, then paying Cook 15 million

[Rocky Landing]

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Ty Johnson is a ONE down back!

Josh Allen has repeatedly called him "the best third-down back the league," so I guess I can understand where you got that opinion.

Edited 5 hours ago by Rocky Landing

[Old Coot]

Cook is running behind one of the better OLs in the league. Wouldn't that positively affect his output?

 

I'm not saying that Cook isn't a telented back; he is. But whether he's elite or whether another RB could do the same as Cook is surely affected by the quality of the OL.

[Doc Brown]

27 minutes ago, klos63 said:

If he produces like last season,  i don't care how many snaps he gets,  16 tds is 16 tds.

I'm sure he could play more,  but we have a solid backfield, everyone is fresh and everyone helps...Cook is just much better than the other backs. That's why Beane used a 2nd round pick on him,  he's that good. 

Why not see if he can do it again before signing him to a long term contract?  It's way more likely he regresses to the mean and puts up between 5 and 9 TD's.  Jamaal Williams scored 17 TD's in 2022.  The other six years he played the most he put up was four TD's in a season.  Barkley put up almost double the yards Cook did last year and still rushed for three less TD's.  

[klos63]

1 minute ago, BillsFan130 said:

The one game cook missed, Ray Davis had 150 scrimmage yards.

 

Are the bills a better team with cook? For sure- But at what cost?

 

I would much rather a day 2 pick next year at cost control for 4 years paired up with Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, then paying Cook 15 million

I think a 2nd round pick should be expected to be here for a 2nd contract.  With Singletary and Moss, using 3rd round picks for 1 contract made some sense. 

[RoscoeParrish]

2 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

He went from 962 yards and a 3.9 YPC to 2005 and a 5.8 YPC average.  3 years before he had 593 and a 3.7 YPC average.  I don't know how you can say its "false".  

 

Swift went from 1049 and 4.6 YPC with philly, to 959 and 3.8 YPC after leaving.  

Demarco Murray saw his YPC drop a full yard going to Philly from Dallas.

 

the underrated part of this discussion is the OL.

 

Edwards is an FA next year. McGovern the year after. Are we letting them walk to pay Cook? 

[klos63]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

Why not see if he can do it again before signing him to a long term contract?  It's way more likely he regresses to the mean and puts up between 5 and 9 TD's.  Jamaal Williams scored 17 TD's in 2022.  The other six years he played the most he put up was four TD's in a season.  Barkley put up almost double the yards Cook did last year and still rushed for three less TD's.  

It appears that Beane is doing that. Waiting till the next offseason. 

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Why not see if he can do it again before signing him to a long term contract?

 

I dont think there's any other option at this point, no matter which side anyone is on.

 

I doubt a deal gets done this summer. But Beane has mentioned numerous times the possibility of getting one done in-season or before next offseason.

 

And as someone on the pro-Cook side, I'm fine with that too.

 

The only bad part about it is it means these posts/conversations will continue to drag for 9 more months.

Edited 5 hours ago by DrDawkinstein

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, RoscoeParrish said:

Demarco Murray saw his YPC drop a full yard going to Philly from Dallas.

 

the underrated part of this discussion is the OL.

 

Edwards is an FA next year. McGovern the year after. Are we letting them walk to pay Cook? 

 

Depends how you feel about anderson, grable, clayton, and lundt.  You also have Torrence coming up on free agency in 2027.  

[transplantbillsfan]

55 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

He is, period.

 

Plus, while we speak in averages, it wont be $15M every year. If anything, it will help our cap situation over the next couple of years.

 

Even Barkley's big $20M/yr deal has him with only a $6M hit in 2025. Funny enough, Henry who everyone references at "$8M/yr" will hit closer to $13M this year and have the Ravens at the biggest spenders on RB in 2025.

 

Here are the top spenders on RBs, all the teams I could grab in one screenshot. Buffalo is currently at 18th. If we want to continue to have a top Offense, we will have to come up from that and keep the top talent we have.

 

With the rest of the guys on the roster, we could pay Cook and still stay in that top 3-6 range. Not having to take the top spot and biggest spend.

 

 

 

Cook is scheduled to make $5m this year because of the 4th year rookie performance bonus.

 

Just like the Bernard and Shakir contracts, any extension signed will be partially a mirage because it doesn't factor in this coming season.

 

If we sign Cook to a 3 year $45m extension like he wants, it will actually be a 4 year $50m contract.

 

That's $12.5m AAV.

 

He's worth that and I actually think the fact we did nothing to the RB room indicates we're heading towards an extension. 

 

And as Greg Tompsett always likes to point out, there will be an out midway through the deal if we want to move on.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Doc Brown said:

Why not see if he can do it again before signing him to a long term contract?  It's way more likely he regresses to the mean and puts up between 5 and 9 TD's.  Jamaal Williams scored 17 TD's in 2022.  The other six years he played the most he put up was four TD's in a season.  Barkley put up almost double the yards Cook did last year and still rushed for three less TD's.  

 

I don't think a holdout is going to occur while he's on his rookie deal.  If he were tagged maybe, but he really hasn't earned very much money yet.  His salary went up considerably this year, but none of it is guaranteed and he won't get it until they start playing the games. 

 

On a holdout on a rookie deal we can reduce or dismiss his fines if he ends up showing up, or getting a new deal.  

[Doc Brown]

13 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I think i can provide a few reasons:

 

4 - Age and injury drop-off.  These can sometimes seem like absolute cliff dive drop-offs. 

 

5 - Bad contracts that have been given out.  Bell comes to mind.  CMC.  Gurley.  Zeke.  

 

These two are really the only points that need to be made.  Most teams that give out premium second contracts to RB regret it within a couple of years.  Maybe 15 to 20% or so don't.  RB's usually start to decline after age 26 regardless of the wear and tear on their body.