How much better is Joe Brady?

[Rockinon]

  On 9/21/2024 at 2:39 PM, Big Turk said:

Look at Allen's efficiency metrics under Brady...

 

Literally off the chart in terms of EPA when disrupted. Allen is a unicorn but Brady isn't forcing him to pull out his "do something only Josh Allen can do" card two or three times a drive anymore...he is only asking him to do it a few times a game and it's leading to a lot better offensive flow and a lot smoother looking offense.

 

Bills still move the ball at will, they just don't rely on Allen making crazy plays to do it as much.

 

 

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2024/9/20/24247411/buffalo-bills-oc-joe-brady-exploiting-achilles-heel-of-nfl-defenses-analysis

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Read that article yesterday. Some really good stuff in there.

[BADOLBILZ]

  On 9/20/2024 at 9:30 PM, 3rdand12 said:

let me say this

Bills might want to appear predictable as long as possible. Till it doesn't work as well. Then you toss the salad a bit.

 

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Predictability on offense didn't work at the end of the Arizona game when the Bills couldn't convert to close out the game and settled for a field goal and 6 point lead.   Fortunately, Kyler Murray missed Marvin Harrison Jr. running undefended for the possible game winner in the closing minute.    They could have scored with an arm punt he was so open.  75% runs on the easiest down to pass was unnecessarily cute.   Escaped with a win.    Shouldn't risk giving away games to set tendency in a 17 game season.   

[PrimeTime101]

  On 9/3/2024 at 4:50 PM, Lost said:

After we went on our late season turnaround once Joe Brady took over as OC, the assumption was the offense was more efficient and we started leaning into the running game a lot more.   It's true we did run the ball more as Josh Allen doubled the amount of carries and we became more efficient in goal line scoring.  Perhaps just dumping the dreaded shotgun draw play from the 1yd line was enough to change that.   Overall however Josh's passing yds/game decreased under Brady as well as his QB rating.   Rushing averages for both Cook and Allen decreased under Brady as well.   I'm hoping brady shows off some new stuff this season but mostly all I've heard this offseason is that there really isn't a whole lot of new concepts except for Brady is letting the players have more choice in the plays they want to run.   Curious how it's gonna play out but I'm still not ready to anoint Joe Brady as the savior of the Bills offense.   

 

 

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You can not decide based on those statistics only because the game has vastly changed.  We went from Big Offenses to Big Defenses, The the need of a true #1 WR to the need of more slot WR.  The running games all over the league is picking up and passing games slowing down. The net worth for the HB position is going to go up a ton after this season.  If Cook continues these numbers through mid year.. We need to extend him asap. While it is cheaper to do so. 

 

At the college level it was noticeable and it looks like our GM did a remarkable job recognizing it.

 

ALL that being said.  I think Joe Brady is a better OC, because he adjusted to how the game adjusted.  but the sample size is small. 

[Don Otreply]

  On 9/19/2024 at 11:41 PM, billsbackto81 said:

He's had a lot of short fields so far this season. His situational play calling and commitment to running the ball has really worked well with the skill set of his players. We have no "field stretchers". We have intermediate route runners with exceptional hands and JA is clicking at 75%👍

 

Hate to say it, but getting rid of Morse has in my eyes been a game changer for this scheme. He was a good zone blocker with decent pass pro but now this line is full of road graters that are still good in pass pro, and their nasty. I'm impressed with Cooks' running between the tackles these 2 games. Some of those holes were blocked open so we'll. Kudos Kromer👍

 

Brady gets it. Ball control, time consumption, 3rd and short and unleash Josh when needed.

 

His game plan has been solid 2 games in. 

 

 

 

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Yup, control the clock and you control the game, add in O & D lines that are executing well, and you get what’s going on now, the best attribute of Brady is taking what each opponents defense is giving you. Every game is a test for both the offensive and defensive game planning, which in theory puts our guys in a position to succeed and win games. 

[Don Otreply]

  On 9/20/2024 at 6:36 PM, Scott7975 said:

This is one thing I would like to see changed in Joe Brady offense.  They need to mix this stuff up more.  Yes, there is something to be said about dictating to a defense what you are going to do and still be successful at it. There is also something to be said about keeping a defense guessing and on their heels.

 

 

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With only two games played, it is far too soon to say this stat is definitive of what the Bills will do to win game all season long, but hey, if they can force their will on opponents via the run game I’m good with that too, 

[Big Turk]

  On 9/21/2024 at 2:53 PM, Rockinon said:

Yeah, that team is going places. Really talented and Stroud is making a name for himself too.

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That roll out throw he made on the run on a rope down field to Collins while scrambling reminded me of a Josh Allen special.

  On 9/21/2024 at 3:21 PM, Don Otreply said:

With only two games played, it is far too soon to say this stat is definitive of what the Bills will do to win game all season long, but hey, if they can force their will on opponents via the run game I’m good with that too, 

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Cook is averaging 5.77 yards from scrimmage per touch since Brady took over, second in the NFL only to McCaffery over that time.

 

If you have an elite player capable of that, it would be foolish not to give him the ball a lot.

  On 9/21/2024 at 3:07 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Predictability on offense didn't work at the end of the Arizona game when the Bills couldn't convert to close out the game and settled for a field goal and 6 point lead.   Fortunately, Kyler Murray missed Marvin Harrison Jr. running undefended for the possible game winner in the closing minute.    They could have scored with an arm punt he was so open.  75% runs on the easiest down to pass was unnecessarily cute.   Escaped with a win.    Shouldn't risk giving away games to set tendency in a 17 game season.   

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Hard to say he "missed him" when he was running for his life in the opposite direction and it appeared the defender saw that and left Harrison alone since Murray would not be able to make that throw...unlikely even Allen would have been able to based on where he was on the field and what was going on.

 

Context matters.

Edited September 21, 2024 by Big Turk

[BADOLBILZ]

  On 9/21/2024 at 4:38 PM, Big Turk said:

 

 

Hard to say he "missed him" when he was running for his life in the opposite direction and it appeared the defender saw that and left Harrison alone since Murray would not be able to make that throw...unlikely even Allen would have been able to based on where he was on the field and what was going on.

 

Context matters.

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Context 😂

 

 

[Big Turk]

  On 9/21/2024 at 5:03 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Context 😂

 

 

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Now show where Murray was and what was happening as Harrison was all alone.  The All-22 will tell the full story not the cherry picked version you choose to go with.

Edited September 21, 2024 by Big Turk

[damj]

  On 9/3/2024 at 4:50 PM, Lost said:

After we went on our late season turnaround once Joe Brady took over as OC, the assumption was the offense was more efficient and we started leaning into the running game a lot more.   It's true we did run the ball more as Josh Allen doubled the amount of carries and we became more efficient in goal line scoring.  Perhaps just dumping the dreaded shotgun draw play from the 1yd line was enough to change that.   Overall however Josh's passing yds/game decreased under Brady as well as his QB rating.   Rushing averages for both Cook and Allen decreased under Brady as well.   I'm hoping brady shows off some new stuff this season but mostly all I've heard this offseason is that there really isn't a whole lot of new concepts except for Brady is letting the players have more choice in the plays they want to run.   Curious how it's gonna play out but I'm still not ready to anoint Joe Brady as the savior of the Bills offense.   

 

 

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Passing is down league wide. Most teams play 2 high safety now forcing shorter passing games

[GunnerBill]

  On 9/21/2024 at 5:05 PM, Big Turk said:

 

 

Now show where Murray was and what was happening as Harrison was all alone.  The All-22 will tell the full story not the cherry picked version you choose to go with.

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Yea the Bills blitzed and the blitzer ended up right in Murray's eyeline as it pertains to seeing Harrison. That isn't to say the Bills are entirely responsible for him not seeing him, but they certainly contributed to it.

[BADOLBILZ]

  On 9/21/2024 at 5:16 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea the Bills blitzed and the blitzer ended up right in Murray's eyeline as it pertains to seeing Harrison. That isn't to say the Bills are entirely responsible for him not seeing him, but they certainly contributed to it.

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Hey Mario Addison should have had Kyler sacked on the Hail Murray too.    When Murray is on the run it's not like Tua on the run........the receivers down field are still live.   @Big Turk claims the Bills left Harrison unguarded because they didn't think it wasn't possible for Murray to reach him.   That is clearly bullish!t.  They blew the coverage and Murray didn't see him.   But could Murray have still laid up a TD pass to the post there?   Obviously, yes.  

[GunnerBill]

  On 9/21/2024 at 5:41 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Hey Mario Addison should have had Kyler sacked on the Hail Murray too.    When Murray is on the run it's not like Tua on the run........the receivers down field are still live.   @Big Turk claims the Bills left Harrison unguarded because they didn't think it wasn't possible for Murray to reach him.   That is clearly bullish!t.  They blew the coverage and Murray didn't see him.   But could Murray have still laid up a TD pass to the post there?   Obviously, yes.  

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For sure. The Bills did impact his failure to see him. But no question was a busted coverage.

Edited September 21, 2024 by GunnerBill

[Don Otreply]

  On 9/21/2024 at 4:38 PM, Big Turk said:

 

That roll out throw he made on the run on a rope down field to Collins while scrambling reminded me of a Josh Allen special.

 

Cook is averaging 5.77 yards from scrimmage per touch since Brady took over, second in the NFL only to McCaffery over that time.

 

If you have an elite player capable of that, it would be foolish not to give him the ball a lot.

 

Hard to say he "missed him" when he was running for his life in the opposite direction and it appeared the defender saw that and left Harrison alone since Murray would not be able to make that throw...unlikely even Allen would have been able to based on where he was on the field and what was going on.

 

Context matters.

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No doubt, run the ball until they prove the can stop you, but don’t become one dimensional in pursuit of that end, 

[Nephilim17]

I wouldn't say the Bills should be "predictable" to continue to win but maybe "boring" is the more apt word. Shorter plays and a healthy run game and just a handful of deeper shots a game.

[folz]

Not sure how much we can draw from the stats this early in Brady's tenure, but here is a brief comparison for regular season games:

 

                              Dorsey (27 games)              Brady (9 games)

Record:                18-8 (1-1 in playoffs)            8-1 (1-1 in playoffs)

Points/game                26.55                                   28.22

Yards/game                372.65                                  363.77

TDs/game                    3.1                                        3.0

1st Downs/gm              21.7                                      21.8

Turnovers/gm              2.07                                      1.22

Sacks/game                 1.7                                         1.4

Passing yds/gm          246.85                                  221.0

Pass yds/att                 7.2                                        7.34

Rushing yds/gm          125.8                                    142.77

Rush yds/att                4.96                                      4.05       

Pass/Rush Ratio     57.5% / 42.5%                   46.1% / 53.9%

Avg.Time of Pos/gm   29.51 mins                            33.33 mins     [Added as an edit per request]    

 

 

Now if we look at Dorsey's last six games before getting fired:

Record: 2-4

Points/gm: 17.57

Yards/gm: 356.16

Pass yds/gm: 254

Rush yds/gm: 102

 

Was the team just in a slump, or had defenses figured out how to shut down our offense under Dorsey and he had no answers? Either way, I think Brady is more on trend with our current offense. I guess the question will be can he adapt well when he needs to. You probably need less adaptation when you are a running/short passing team, which is also good. But the NFL is always changing. Can Brady stay ahead of the curve? I think so, I hope so.

Edited September 21, 2024 by folz

[nedboy7]

  On 9/21/2024 at 8:26 PM, folz said:

Not sure how much we can draw from the stats this early in Brady's tenure, but here is a brief comparison for regular season games:

 

                              Dorsey (27 games)              Brady (9 games)

Record:                18-8 (1-1 in playoffs)            8-1 (1-1 in playoffs)

Points/game                26.55                                   28.22

Yards/game                372.65                                  363.77

TDs/game                    3.1                                        3.0

1st Downs/gm              21.7                                      21.8

Turnovers/gm              2.07                                      1.22

Sacks/game                 1.7                                         1.4

Passing yds/gm          246.85                                  221.0

Pass yds/att                 7.2                                        7.34

Rushing yds/gm          125.8                                    142.77

Rush yds/att                4.96                                      4.05       

Pass/Rush Ratio     57.5% / 42.5%                   46.1% / 53.9%

 

 

Now if we look at Dorsey's last six games before getting fired:

Record: 2-4

Points/gm: 17.57

Yards/gm: 356.16

Pass yds/gm: 254

Rush yds/gm: 102

 

Was the team just in a slump, or had defenses figured out how to shut down our offense under Dorsey and he had no answers? Either way, I think Brady is more on trend with our current offense. I guess the question will be can he adapt well when he needs to. You probably need less adaptation when you are a running/short passing team, which is also good. But the NFL is always changing. Can Brady stay ahead of the curve? I think so, I hope so.

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Great post.  Interesting stats for sure. 

Some things to consider. 

It is safe to say we did not really regress under Brady.  Not only that but we have won more.  A 2-4 slump with Josh Allen is hard to ignore. 

Also interesting that Brady is getting more or at least the same out of the offense without Diggs.  Overall a positive I believe. 

And to my eyes at least it looks like our offense if less predictable, disregarding the 1st down run rate. 

 

Edited September 21, 2024 by nedboy7

[Rockinon]

  On 9/21/2024 at 8:26 PM, folz said:

Not sure how much we can draw from the stats this early in Brady's tenure, but here is a brief comparison for regular season games:

 

                              Dorsey (27 games)              Brady (9 games)

Record:                18-8 (1-1 in playoffs)            8-1 (1-1 in playoffs)

Points/game                26.55                                   28.22

Yards/game                372.65                                  363.77

TDs/game                    3.1                                        3.0

1st Downs/gm              21.7                                      21.8

Turnovers/gm              2.07                                      1.22

Sacks/game                 1.7                                         1.4

Passing yds/gm          246.85                                  221.0

Pass yds/att                 7.2                                        7.34

Rushing yds/gm          125.8                                    142.77

Rush yds/att                4.96                                      4.05       

Pass/Rush Ratio     57.5% / 42.5%                   46.1% / 53.9%

 

 

Now if we look at Dorsey's last six games before getting fired:

Record: 2-4

Points/gm: 17.57

Yards/gm: 356.16

Pass yds/gm: 254

Rush yds/gm: 102

 

Was the team just in a slump, or had defenses figured out how to shut down our offense under Dorsey and he had no answers? Either way, I think Brady is more on trend with our current offense. I guess the question will be can he adapt well when he needs to. You probably need less adaptation when you are a running/short passing team, which is also good. But the NFL is always changing. Can Brady stay ahead of the curve? I think so, I hope so.

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It would be interesting to see time of possession here too. I would assume it's higher under Brady.

[hondo in seattle]

  On 9/21/2024 at 2:39 PM, Big Turk said:

Look at Allen's efficiency metrics under Brady...

 

Literally off the chart in terms of EPA when disrupted. Allen is a unicorn but Brady isn't forcing him to pull out his "do something only Josh Allen can do" card two or three times a drive anymore...he is only asking him to do it a few times a game and it's leading to a lot better offensive flow and a lot smoother looking offense.

 

Bills still move the ball at will, they just don't rely on Allen making crazy plays to do it as much.

 

 

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2024/9/20/24247411/buffalo-bills-oc-joe-brady-exploiting-achilles-heel-of-nfl-defenses-analysis

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Good news/Bad news

 

Good News: this chart shows that Josh does better when "disrupted" than any QB in the league.

Bad News: this chart also shows that Josh gets "disrupted" more than any QB in the league.  That's a problem.  

[Scott7975]

  On 9/21/2024 at 9:42 PM, hondo in seattle said:

 

Good news/Bad news

 

Good News: this chart shows that Josh does better when "disrupted" than any QB in the league.

Bad News: this chart also shows that Josh gets "disrupted" more than any QB in the league.  That's a problem.  

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Its weird because I feel like our Oline has been very good.  I didnt like study it or watch the all22s or anything.  Just my impression from the games.

[hondo in seattle]

  On 9/21/2024 at 9:45 PM, Scott7975 said:

 

Its weird because I feel like our Oline has been very good.  I didnt like study it or watch the all22s or anything.  Just my impression from the games.

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I agree and felt the same way when I saw the chart.  

 

But for their chart, "disruption" doesn't just mean pressure.   It could also mean perfect coverage.  If that's the case, this doesn't speak highly of our receivers and/or Brady's passing schemes.