Speed: I do the math here

[BarleyNY]

12 hours ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

“This is why Marcel St. Jacques wrote an article for espn.com indicating the 40 time isn’t very useful anymore.”

 

People have been saying this for years but they keep doing it.

I guess it’s useful if you run a lot of 40 yard go routes and the QB has time to throw it.

 

 

In game tracking data is far more useful than a 40 time run in shorts. It’s too bad that that data is not publicly available at this point. Watching Coleman play and looking at the data we do have it’s easy to conclude that he has sufficient speed to play WR in the NFL, but also that he is not fast enough that speed will be a positive difference making asset for him. 

 

Now as for his difficulties separating, that’s a big concern made bigger by a lack of speed. 

Edited April 28 by BarleyNY

[PayDaBill$]

16 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I’m not really arguing against your original point, just wanted to add that quickness, route running skill and acceleration are as important or more so as speed.

 

The gauntlet speed point is questionable in my mind - the gauntlet is not a speed competition.  Players aren’t competing to see who can run it fastest.  It IS encouraging that he could ripen it fast and show good hands. do they time it then?

They are now timing it, so quickness factors in this test.  This dude was also a 3 sport athlete. He’ll be fine!

10 hours ago, mrags said:

Is that like 4.61 on almost as fast as 4.3 in the 40? If it’s only 8 feet then it’s more like 4.61 is almost as fast as 4.35. Or somewhere in there. I’m not a mathematician like the OP or you apparently. 
 

but I do know that 10 feet is a significant distance in a race as short as 40 yards. 

Your’re so ridiculous with this nonsense.  
 

It’s funny  how a slower 40  didn’t stop Puka from being an excellent wr. It’s also interesting how everyone was wondering why their fave team missed on him.  
 

I didn’t like AD with his issues, Franklin dropped like a rock and XW is the size he of a middle schooler.  We did ok.

 

 

Edited April 28 by PayDaBill$

[PayDaBill$]

16 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

I think a lot of people are getting upset that people don't like how slow he is. It's fine, he was successful while being slow in college and he will probably be an ok player in the NFL. The point is he had a glaring weakness vs others still available at the time he was drafted. If he was drafted in round 3 this wouldn't even be a discussion, we would be happy with the pick (most of us).

 

We passed on Worthy who has speed you need to plan for, McConkey who has the speed AND route running, Leggette who has the speed AND size, and AD Mitchell who has every single tool available and might have a bad attitude but please tell me which superstar WR is pleasant. Coleman might end up being an upgrade over Gabe but there were other options available so it's a head scratcher.

Stop it’s not like any of the guys you mentioned were a lock. All had warts.

The 40 yd time is a component of an evaluation not the entire picture.

 

 

Edited April 28 by PayDaBill$

[mrags]

6 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

That's only true if the CB knows exactly where you're going and how you'll get there. Most of the game played between WR and CB is disguising that information.

Isn't it telling that AB was the most productive of any of those players by a large margin and was also the slowest?

The argument wasn’t who was better. I could have picked another pic not showing the best WR to be the best was also the slowest. The argument was the fact that 3yards is a hell of a lot when we’re talking about a WR being open. 

[PBF81]

15 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Why?  If Kincaid is the primary guy why is a #1 essential?  It seems Brady wants to mix run and pass and spread the ball around in the pass game.  Not that I’d turn down say a Chase or Jefferson but is it essential?  

 

You said a lot there without realizing it.

 

That appears to be what McD wants and what he's essentially forcing Brady to do.  It's part of his "complimentary football" definition.  Here's the thing about that, you absolutely need to have your shorter high-percentage game going to optimally run that kind of offense if you expect it to be effective.  

 

Consider however, is that where Allen's skillset is at the moment, or ever has been?  The short answer is no.  Allen's always going to produce to a minimal level because, well, he's Allen.  

 

But we leave a lot, sometimes a whole lot, in the table in games in that way, you can see it during the games.  If that's going to work, Allen's going to have to become proficient at it if it's going to carry us in the playoffs.  

 

It's a little more complex than that, but to summarize.  In short, he'll have to change what's been his game to date for it to work.  

 

 

[mrags]

47 minutes ago, PayDaBill$ said:

Although recent, they are now timing.  This dude was also a 3 sport athlete. He’ll be fine!

Your’re so ridiculous with this nonsense.  
 

It’s funny  how a slower 40  didn’t stop Puka from being an excellent wr. It’s also interesting how everyone was wondering why their fave team missed on him.  
 

I didn’t like AD with his issues, Franklin dropped like a rock and XW is the size he of a middle schooler.  We did ok.

 

 

Again. The argument wasn’t about who is better. Or who will be better. The argument is about the fact that 9ft is a hell of a lot of distance in a span of 40 yards. It is a fact. 

[Matt_In_NH]

He is slow and that is probably his worst trait.  But there are many traits that go into a wr’s production ability.  It is also true you cannot really coach speed, you have it or you don’t.  However there is no correlation of elite speed and wr production.  You need a combination of traits.   I get this is not the guy most wanted but I trust the bills staff chose him for other reasons they think give him the best chance to help the bills.  They have a lot of information that is not on the internet.  I will wait and see.  

[BeastMaster]

17 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

I see a lot of numbers trying to justify him being slow. It is what it is. He's slow. Hopefully he can make it up elsewhere (jump balls, catch radius, etc).

He's not slow, though

 

The film doesn't lie

 

They said Jerry Rice was slow, too FWIW 

[BuffaloBill]

17 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

So there are a certain number of folks here who are wailing and gnashing teeth over Coleman because he’s not fast.  That we don’t place emphasis on speed.  So let’s do some math and compare a supposed fast time (4.2) with the supposed slow time of 4.6, which if memory serves correct is Coleman.
 

The formula is simple:  40 yards/time gives you how many yards per second.

 

For 4.2:  40/4.2= 9.5 yards/sec

For 4.6:  40/4.6 = 8.7 yards/sec

 

So if you have a guy running 40 yards downfield they’d gain about 3 yards. At 4.2 vs 4.6.  Seems like a significant difference although I haven’t run stats.  But I also don’t consider other variables like time to accelerate to maximum speed, effect of equipment on times, and such.  
 

For me I’d be looking not just for speed, but how fast you get to top speed, how long you can maintain top speed, arm length (longer arms may negate the gap based purely on speed), quickness in getting in and out of breaks.  And likely more if I gave it more thought.  This is why Marcel St. Jacques wrote an article for espn.com indicating the 40 time isn’t very useful anymore.

 

So this kid may not be a sprinter, but he’s quite the athlete (all state basketball), young still, will have height advantages over many corners.  I’m intrigued to see what he and other drafted guys bring to the table.

 

Six word response:

 

Anquan Boldin ran a 4.7 40

[KDIGGZ]

3 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

He's not slow, though

 

The film doesn't lie

 

They said Jerry Rice was slow, too FWIW 

Jerry Rice was a great route runner and was open every single play. Coleman was open on no plays, that's why his highlight film is so fun because he has to Moss the defender to catch the ball. But watch his full tape where he doesn't catch a lot of those balls. Pretty underwhelming when you watch all of his film.

[PBF81]

5 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

He is slow and that is probably his worst trait.  But there are many traits that go into a wr’s production ability.  It is also true you cannot really coach speed, you have it or you don’t.  However there is no correlation of elite speed and wr production.  You need a combination of traits.   I get this is not the guy most wanted but I trust the bills staff chose him for other reasons they think give him the best chance to help the bills.  They have a lot of information that is not on the internet.  I will wait and see.  

 

Yeah, it'll be interesting to be sure.  

 

It's always interesting to assess the approach.  i.e., is there a clear-cut methodology in play.  Unfortunately the answer is no.  

 

First, we needed a guy that could "stretch the D" and take the coverage downfield.  We didn't do that.  Instead we draft a guy with traits similar to Davis.  

 

57% catch %

Not the best route runner 

Big, physical

 

With the receivers we have, if we're going to get the most out of our offense, Allen's going to have to effectively tweak his game.  

 

The extent to which that occurs will likely define our season.  

 

 

9 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

Six word response:

 

Anquan Boldin ran a 4.7 40

 

So we can expect Coleman to have the career that Boldin had then? 

 

 

It's funny, before the draft the talk was primarily about how we needed a WR that's could take the top off.  

 

Now that we didn't draft that kind of WR it's unnecessary.  

 

This place is too funny sometimes.  

 

 

[BuffaloBill]

45 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, it'll be interesting to be sure.  

 

It's always interesting to assess the approach.  i.e., is there a clear-cut methodology in play.  Unfortunately the answer is no.  

 

First, we needed a guy that could "stretch the D" and take the coverage downfield.  We didn't do that.  Instead we draft a guy with traits similar to Davis.  

 

57% catch %

Not the best route runner 

Big, physical

 

 

So we can expect Coleman to have the career that Boldin had then? 

 

 

It's funny, before the draft the talk was primarily about how we needed a WR that's could take the top off.  

 

Now that we didn't draft that kind of WR it's unnecessary.  

 

This place is too funny sometimes.  

 

 

 

I was not one of the ones  saying we only needed speed.  Look who the Bills have on the roster at WR:

 

KJ Hamler 4.27 (claims this per pro day - open to debate)

Curtis Samuel: 4.31

Andy Isabella: 4.31

Lawrence Keys: 4.35

Khalil Shakir 4.43

Mack Hollins: 4.53

Bryan Thompson:  4.54

Justin Shorter: 4.55

Tyrell Shavers: 4.59

Keon Coleman: 4.61

Xavier Johnson: 4.64

 

The Bills have added speed or guys known for it. In Coleman they also added a guy who has all of the markings of a possession receiver who has hands of superglue (two dropped balls).  

 

Initially, I was frustrated with the pick. The more I see and think about it the more I like what the Bills have done. 

 

For those who simply wanted unproven straight line speed (i.e. Xavier Worthy) - the Bills picked up KJ Hamler and Samuel who are both fast. Samuel is a very known person to the coaching staff.

 

Coleman, like any draft pick, will have to prove himself. Let’s hope he does.

 

 

 

[PBF81]

29 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

I was not one of the ones  saying we only needed speed.  Look who the Bills have on the roster at WR:

 

KJ Hamler 4.27 (claims this per pro day - open to debate)

Curtis Samuel: 4.31

Andy Isabella: 4.31

Lawrence Keys: 4.35

Khalil Shakir 4.43

Mack Hollins: 4.53

Bryan Thompson:  4.54

Justin Shorter: 4.55

Tyrell Shavers: 4.59

Keon Coleman: 4.61

Xavier Johnson: 4.64

 

The Bills have added speed or guys known for it. In Coleman they also added a guy who has all of the markings of a possession receiver who has hands of superglue (two dropped balls).  

 

Initially, I was frustrated with the pick. The more I see and think about it the more I like what the Bills have done. 

 

For those who simply wanted unproven straight line speed (i.e. Xavier Worthy) - the Bills picked up KJ Hamler and Samuel who are both fast. Samuel is a very known person to the coaching staff.

 

Coleman, like any draft pick, will have to prove himself. Let’s hope he does.

 

BTW, no insinuation that you said we only needed speed, just addressing the mob mentality.  

 

My point is that there's no clear-cut vision for this offense.  That's because we really have no offensively oriented person with any significant experience on our entire staff.  Daboll was the best there but even he had his flaws.  Contrast that with the defense where we have McD and a staff laden with people capable of adding to his prowess.  All of our top staff are defensively oriented, at least those with the most and highest level experience.  

 

The WR configuration that we have necessarily predicates that our QB play more like Brady, Purdy, or Burrow than the way that Allen has played.  While watching games I routinely point out, numerous times per game, how Allen overlooks players underneath whereby a completion would have resulted in a 1st-down or a big gain otherwise, but where he goes deep, sometimes hitting, sometimes missing.  But the point is that to make use of the WR cadre that we now have, Allen's going to really have to go into checkdown mode, but that's something he's never really done regularly or been top-notch at.  He's got a whole lot of skills, but that's not among his best, at least he's not employed that.  

 

So from that perspective it will be interesting.  

 

Much of the dissatisfaction with McD that many of us express, is related to the fact that we continually build our team around the D.  Once again, two of our three day 1 & 2 picks were for the D when our most glaring need was at WR with half both our yardage and TD production no longer on the team.  Meanwhile, it's a real reach for anyone to suggest that Allen couldn't have a whole lot better around him.  What we may have may be adequate, but to restate, Allen will necessarily have to really really hone his "high-percentage passing game" if we're to make optimal use of our offensive roster.  

 

And getting back to that vision for our offense, last year the staff told us that they wanted to get faster at RB which is why they let Singletary go, and why they traded Moss, yet here we spend a 4th-rounder on all but a Moss clone.  It doesn't line up, there's zero consistency from season to season in the approach of the offense, it's almost entirely shooting from the hip.  

 

On a side note, will we have the fortune that we had with an injury-free OL last season again.  If not, that could also complicate matters, are we content with our OL depth.  Just food for thought.  

 

We'll find out come September.  But NE and the Jets won't be worse, and they both beat us once each, NE nearly twice with us requiring a defensive TD to win that game, and while we own Miami, it may be more difficult to beat them, who knows.   But Diggs has averaged 84 YPG against them and nearly a TD/game.  Last season he averaged over 100 YPG against them and had 3 TDs.  He could have had two more in the last game but for Allen badly overthrowing him for what would have been a TD, and Allen going to Knox OTM on a play that would have been a TD to him also.  

 

So we'll see.  

 

 

Edited April 28 by PBF81

[PayDaBill$]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

Again. The argument wasn’t about who is better. Or who will be better. The argument is about the fact that 9ft is a hell of a lot of distance in a span of 40 yards. It is a fact. 

Sure but in the context of a the game a 40 yd sprint only tells a fraction of the story.  It been proven repeatedly that slower wr using the 40 yd metric have had very successful careers.

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, mrags said:

The argument wasn’t who was better. I could have picked another pic not showing the best WR to be the best was also the slowest. The argument was the fact that 3yards is a hell of a lot when we’re talking about a WR being open. 

but that argument goes out the window on game days. Dude's don't run straight lines in shorts against air. I'm not saying speed doesn't matter, but 40 time is historically a pretty weak indicator of NFL success.

[BuffaloBill]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

BTW, no insinuation that you said we only needed speed, just addressing the mob mentality.  

 

My point is that there's no clear-cut vision for this offense.  That's because we really have no offensively oriented person with any significant experience on our entire staff.  Daboll was the best there but even he had his flaws.  Contrast that with the defense where we have McD and a staff laden with people capable of adding to his prowess.  All of our top staff are defensively oriented, at least those with the most and highest level experience.  

 

The WR configuration that we have necessarily predicates that our QB play more like Brady, Purdy, or Burrow than the way that Allen has played.  While watching games I routinely point out, numerous times per game, how Allen overlooks players underneath whereby a completion would have resulted in a 1st-down or a big gain otherwise, but where he goes deep, sometimes hitting, sometimes missing.  But the point is that to make use of the WR cadre that we now have, Allen's going to really have to go into checkdown mode, but that's something he's never really done regularly or been top-notch at.  He's got a whole lot of skills, but that's not among his best, at least he's not employed that.  

 

So from that perspective it will be interesting.  

 

Much of the dissatisfaction with McD that many of us express, is related to the fact that we continually build our team around the D.  Once again, two of our three day 1 & 2 picks were for the D when our most glaring need was at WR with half both our yardage and TD production no longer on the team.  Meanwhile, it's a real reach for anyone to suggest that Allen couldn't have a whole lot better around him.  What we may have may be adequate, but to restate, Allen will necessarily have to really really hone his "high-percentage passing game" if we're to make optimal use of our offensive roster.  

 

And getting back to that vision for our offense, last year the staff told us that they wanted to get faster at RB which is why they let Singletary go, and why they traded Moss, yet here we spend a 4th-rounder on all but a Moss clone.  It doesn't line up, there's zero consistency from season to season in the approach of the offense, it's almost entirely shooting from the hip.  

 

On a side note, will we have the fortune that we had with an injury-free OL last season again.  If not, that could also complicate matters, are we content with our OL depth.  Just food for thought.  

 

We'll find out come September.  But NE and the Jets won't be worse, and they both beat us once each, NE nearly twice with us requiring a defensive TD to win that game, and while we own Miami, it may be more difficult to beat them, who knows.   But Diggs has averaged 84 YPG against them and nearly a TD/game.  Last season he averaged over 100 YPG against them and had 3 TDs.  He could have had two more in the last game but for Allen badly overthrowing him for what would have been a TD, and Allen going to Knox OTM on a play that would have been a TD to him also.  

 

So we'll see.  

 

 

 

 

Do you not see that Brady will change the style of the offense at least somewhat?  There is are some teams across the league push torwards youth in offensive coaching.  

 

I will grant you that Brady is unproven but I look forward to seeing what he will do.  I am one of the few around here who has said the Bills are better off without Diggs. I like the fact that the Bills have built a varied WR and TE groups.  Defenses seem to have figured out Diggs and Davis.  KC did for sure.  The Bills now have combinations of size and speed.  Additionally they can go deep, play short and throw over the middle.

 

No doubt Josh will have his favorite routes and tendencies.  However, The NFL is a cat and mouse league. Teams will figure you out and you have to be able to do several things well.

 

We will have to see what the product looks like on the field but I am excited.

[PBF81]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

Do you not see that Brady will change the style of the offense at least somewhat?  There is are some teams across the league push torwards youth in offensive coaching.  

 

I will grant you that Brady is unproven but I look forward to seeing what he will do.  I am one of the few around here who has said the Bills are better off without Diggs. I like the fact that the Bills have built a varied WR and TE groups.  Defenses seem to have figured out Diggs and Davis.  KC did for sure.  The Bills now have combinations of size and speed.  Additionally they can go deep, play short and throw over the middle.

 

No doubt Josh will have his favorite routes and tendencies.  However, The NFL is a cat and mouse league. Teams will figure you out and you have to be able to do several things well.

 

We will have to see what the product looks like on the field but I am excited.

 

That's fair and I definitely appreciate your enthusiam for the new look.  

 

I'm hopeful, but my point has been about a mismatch.  A mismatch between that and what type of QB Allen is.  

 

Allen has always struggled with the high-percentage passing game.  It's questionable as to whether or not he knows it but simply has such enormous confidence in his arm that he ignores the impulses to simply mount longer more consistent drives.  

 

All I'm saying is that if Brady's vision for the O is going to work, Allen's going to have to change his passing game, not in a small way either.  And from there of course the discussions ensue as to whether or not we'd be better off with personnel, either only on the Offensive side or altogether, with people that understand that better and know how to get the most from the generationally talented tool that they have, rather than trying to force-feed some alternate vision into the mix that is an uphill battle to optimization of the Offense.  

 

We will see.  We're all hoping!  

 

 

[BillsFanThru-N-Thru]

Top-10 receivers in 2023 and their 40 times.
T. Hill 4.29
C. Lamb 4.51
A. St. Brown 4.61
P. Nacua 4.57
A.J. Brown 4.49
D.J. Moore 4.42
B. Aiyuk 4.5
N. Collins 4.4
M. Evans 4.53
A. Cooper 4.42
_________________________________

#Bills WR Keon Coleman 4.53 (Pro day)
 

 

[PayDaBill$]

This kid is hard to dislike, he’s a character!

 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

Can you show your work on the division?