Dalton Kincaid’s 1st season highlights

[H2o]

20 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

 

We see from the record, that he had 4 drops on 91 targets (comparison: Knox as rookie 10 drops on 50 targets; Shakir as rookie 2 drops on 20 targets)

He had an 80% catch rate.

 

I don't understand how that gets described as "numerous drops".  If you're catching 80% as a rookie, that's, like, Good.

 

Also from the record, 46% of his yards, were YAC.  So he may be avoiding/breaking more tackles than you think.

This^^^. 

 

Kincaid's drop percentage was lower than Travis Kelce. LaPorta's drop percentage was at 4.2%, slightly better than Dalton. 

 

For the people talking about LaPorta and how he was so much better, he really wasn't outside of his blocking. The difference between the two was the volume of targets and utilization on route concepts. That's it. LaPorta averaged 1 more yard per reception, but we all saw how they kept throwing Kincaid those 3 yd passes that never went anywhere. Then, Kincaid's catch percentage was 9% higher than LaPorta. If Kincaid gets 126 targets like LaPorta did, then he catches 100 passes and puts up 920 yds. The biggest stat that stands out are the TD #'s. LaPorta had 10 TD's where Kincaid only had 2. To me, this again goes back to scheme. We had a lot of guys catch TD passes this year, but none of them had more than 8. One of the big reasons for this? Josh Allen had 15 rushing TD's. A lot of times JA17 gets inside the 10 and just says, "I'll take it from here boys." In all honesty JA probably could have had another 7-10 passing TD's, but chose to run it instead. 

 

Overall, it wasn't a bad season at all for Kincaid. We knew what he was coming out and he is definitely a solid investment. I expect him to be more involved this coming year with Brady drawing up the offense and being able to build even more of a rapport with Josh. 

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, H2o said:

This^^^. 

 

Kincaid's drop percentage was lower than Travis Kelce. LaPorta's drop percentage was at 4.2%, slightly better than Dalton. 

 

For the people talking about LaPorta and how he was so much better, he really wasn't outside of his blocking. The difference between the two was the volume of targets and utilization on route concepts. That's it. LaPorta averaged 1 more yard per reception, but we all saw how they kept throwing Kincaid those 3 yd passes that never went anywhere. Then, Kincaid's catch percentage was 9% higher than LaPorta. If Kincaid gets 126 targets like LaPorta did, then he catches 100 passes and puts up 920 yds. The biggest stat that stands out are the TD #'s. LaPorta had 10 TD's where Kincaid only had 2. To me, this again goes back to scheme. We had a lot of guys catch TD passes this year, but none of them had more than 8. One of the big reasons for this? Josh Allen had 15 rushing TD's. A lot of times JA17 gets inside the 10 and just says, "I'll take it from here boys." In all honesty JA probably could have had another 7-10 passing TD's, but chose to run it instead. 

 

Overall, it wasn't a bad season at all for Kincaid. We knew what he was coming out and he is definitely a solid investment. I expect him to be more involved this coming year with Brady drawing up the offense and being able to build even more of a rapport with Josh. 

And the TDs are of little concern to me, at least not yet.  TDs don't happen all that often, relative to receptions, so a statistical variation in TDs per reception is not uncommon.   Davis caught four TDs in one game.   That didn't mean Davis was great; it just meant in that game, against that defensive scheme, Allen was finding Davis.  

 

Plus, as I said earlier, I think red zone scoring has a lot to do with how well the QB and receiver communicate.  Diggs has had a lot of red zone success, and Beasley did, too, and both were based on their communication with Allen.  The spaces are tight, the timing is critical, and the receiver's understanding of how the defense works also is critical.   I think we'll see Kincaid improve in that area.  Kelce went 5-5-4 TDs in his first three years playing.   When he got older, and when Mahomes arrived, is when his TD production went up.  

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

KIncaid had a fine rookie season, and projects to be a top tier tight end in the future. 
 

However, the "moving the chains problem since Beasely" is a myth, based on statistics, 

In 2021 the Bills had the fifth fewest punts in the NFL (chiefs had least). In 2022 the Bills had the fewest punts in the NFL. In 2023 the Bills had the second fewest punts in the NFL.   The Bills did not have problem moving the chains. 
 

 

So by many metrics, the Buffalo Bills have had an excellent offense.  Rank 3, 2, and 6 on points for 21, 22, and 23 respectively.

 

But looking at "who had the fewest punts?" is probably NOT a sufficient metric for looking at whether the Bills have a "chain moving" problem, especially when the goal the Bills are seeking isn't "top offense" but "Championship"

 

Other metrics that should be considered:

-# of FG vs TD (eg are drives stalling out due to failure to get a 1D?)

-# of turnovers

 

In 2023, of the top-10 scoring teams, the Bills actually attempted the 3rd fewest FG (49ers and Lions had fewer)

So that's not a factor.

 

However, of the top-10 scoring teams, the Bills had the 2nd most turnovers - 28. (That's #7 for turnovers, overall)

Five of those offenses had 9 or 10 or more fewer turnovers.  Only the #10 scoring offense (the Browns) had more.

Three of the offenses with fewer turnovers (Cowboys, 49ers, and Ravens) ranked above the Bills for scoring.

 

You might say "that's a ball security/decision making problem, not a chain-moving problem", but I would argue that it's related: some of the 'bad decisions' or putting the ball at risk that result in turnovers, result from getting into 3rd and long and trying to force the ball, which is a form of chain-moving problem.

 

The Bills had the same turnovers in 2022 when we had the #2 scoring offense, but in 2021, when Beasley was still here, we had 22 turnovers and were 17th in the league, and in 2020 when the Bills had the Diggs, Brown, Beasley trio, we also had 22 turnovers and Josh had 10 INT vs. 18 INT in 2023.  

 

So I do think there might be something to the notion that "having a reliable outlet he trusts to move the chains" has been a gap.

 

TL;DR Number of punts alone is not a good metric for whether or not the Bills have a chain-moving problem.

 

 

 

[Motorin']

4 hours ago, H2o said:

This^^^. 

 

Kincaid's drop percentage was lower than Travis Kelce. LaPorta's drop percentage was at 4.2%, slightly better than Dalton. 

 

For the people talking about LaPorta and how he was so much better, he really wasn't outside of his blocking. The difference between the two was the volume of targets and utilization on route concepts. That's it. LaPorta averaged 1 more yard per reception, but we all saw how they kept throwing Kincaid those 3 yd passes that never went anywhere. Then, Kincaid's catch percentage was 9% higher than LaPorta. If Kincaid gets 126 targets like LaPorta did, then he catches 100 passes and puts up 920 yds. The biggest stat that stands out are the TD #'s. LaPorta had 10 TD's where Kincaid only had 2. To me, this again goes back to scheme. We had a lot of guys catch TD passes this year, but none of them had more than 8. One of the big reasons for this? Josh Allen had 15 rushing TD's. A lot of times JA17 gets inside the 10 and just says, "I'll take it from here boys." In all honesty JA probably could have had another 7-10 passing TD's, but chose to run it instead. 

 

Overall, it wasn't a bad season at all for Kincaid. We knew what he was coming out and he is definitely a solid investment. I expect him to be more involved this coming year with Brady drawing up the offense and being able to build even more of a rapport with Josh. 

 

I think the reason the Bills chose to run in the red zone so much last season was based on it being higher percentage. 

 

They don't really have a red zone receiving TD machine. And that's exactly what I think Brian Thomas Jr. is. 

 

I hope Kincaid significant increases his TD's this season. Would love to see him in the 6-8 range. Anything more than that and it's all gravy.

 

But I also think the Bills need a red zone monster. I'd support a trade up into the low 20's for Thomas Jr. I think he's really the vertical deep threat and Red Zone TD machine the Bills need to add to their chain moving receivers of Kincaid, Samuels and Shakir... 

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

And the TDs are of little concern to me, at least not yet.  TDs don't happen all that often, relative to receptions, so a statistical variation in TDs per reception is not uncommon.   Davis caught four TDs in one game.   That didn't mean Davis was great; it just meant in that game, against that defensive scheme, Allen was finding Davis.  

 

Plus, as I said earlier, I think red zone scoring has a lot to do with how well the QB and receiver communicate.  Diggs has had a lot of red zone success, and Beasley did, too, and both were based on their communication with Allen.  The spaces are tight, the timing is critical, and the receiver's understanding of how the defense works also is critical.   I think we'll see Kincaid improve in that area.  Kelce went 5-5-4 TDs in his first three years playing.   When he got older, and when Mahomes arrived, is when his TD production went up.  

 

I'd just like to point out that tactically, part of "red zone success" is creating realistic uncertainty in the mind of the opposing defense: "will this be a run play or a pass play?"

 

There was a point in 2022 where the Bills dipped to one of the lowest success % in the league in the red zone, and several people who break down plays pointed out "they need to run enough for a run play to be a credible threat there".  The Bills started running more, and rZ success % improved.

 

Why is that relevant to Kincaid's red-zone use?  Well, because of he isn't yet technically sound as an in-line or 2nd level run  blocker (he can block effectively downfield when it's more like "momentarily get in the way"), defenses are more inclined to accept a run play as a credible threat when the TE is Knox or when there's a fullback (Gilliam) on the field.  And while Kincaid does run good routes, they aren't yet as polished and precise as some of the WR.

 

If Kincaid levels up his blocking a bit and also polishes up his route running, I'm sure he'll get more RZ targets.

[DC Greg]

On 3/21/2024 at 10:18 AM, Shaw66 said:

I say you've taken an overly pessimistic view, in several respects.  

 

He had 670 yards in receptions, which was right around where I expected him to be.  That's a nice total for a rookie, especially for a tight end.  A rookie wideout who starts has an opportunity for some chunk plays that a tight end doesn't get.  So, I'd say his production was pretty good, and I expect it will improve.  

 

Next, I'd say that "he rarely broke tackles" is unfair.   A large number of his catches were essentially dumpoffs over the middle where he was surrounded by defenders.   He's not a big guy who's going to drag those tacklers.   Still, he always goes down going forward, and he gets just about all the yards he can.  He had several plays where he made a move to avoid a tackler and get extra yards, and in particularly he made several to get the first down.    He's not a great open field runner, but he gets ahead in space before he goes down.  

 

Drops.  I agree about that.  He's excellent when he's open, but he isn't so good on contested catches.  In a crowd, he doesn't seem to come down with it as often as he should. 

 

One thing that was apparent was how often Allen's throws were off target.  Some of his drops really were throws where Allen missed the market, and some of his best catches also were on inaccurate throws.  

 

I agree about bulking up.  He looks like he could carry another ten pounds, and then would make him tougher to bring down. 

 

I wouldn't call him a disappointment at all.  However, if he's never better than he was as a rookie, I will be disappointed.  My hope for 2024 is that Brady will have a creative passing attack with Diggs, Samuel, and Shakir attacking all over the field, short and long, and with Kincaid finding plenty of holes as the defenders chase the speed guys.  

 

Agree with this. Kincaid made the most of his somewhat limited opportunities in year 1. I thought they should have been designing more creative downfield routes for him. They used him too much as a simple check down option.

 

In the playoff game, we FINALLY saw him running a seam route up the middle for a big TD. That was the first time I saw that route all year, and he crushed defenses with it at Utah. I hope they open it up a bit more for him in year 2.

[Chaos]

9 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

So by many metrics, the Buffalo Bills have had an excellent offense.  Rank 3, 2, and 6 on points for 21, 22, and 23 respectively.

 

But looking at "who had the fewest punts?" is probably NOT a sufficient metric for looking at whether the Bills have a "chain moving" problem, especially when the goal the Bills are seeking isn't "top offense" but "Championship"

 

Other metrics that should be considered:

-# of FG vs TD (eg are drives stalling out due to failure to get a 1D?)

-# of turnovers

 

In 2023, of the top-10 scoring teams, the Bills actually attempted the 3rd fewest FG (49ers and Lions had fewer)

So that's not a factor.

 

However, of the top-10 scoring teams, the Bills had the 2nd most turnovers - 28. (That's #7 for turnovers, overall)

Five of those offenses had 9 or 10 or more fewer turnovers.  Only the #10 scoring offense (the Browns) had more.

Three of the offenses with fewer turnovers (Cowboys, 49ers, and Ravens) ranked above the Bills for scoring.

 

You might say "that's a ball security/decision making problem, not a chain-moving problem", but I would argue that it's related: some of the 'bad decisions' or putting the ball at risk that result in turnovers, result from getting into 3rd and long and trying to force the ball, which is a form of chain-moving problem.

 

The Bills had the same turnovers in 2022 when we had the #2 scoring offense, but in 2021, when Beasley was still here, we had 22 turnovers and were 17th in the league, and in 2020 when the Bills had the Diggs, Brown, Beasley trio, we also had 22 turnovers and Josh had 10 INT vs. 18 INT in 2023.  

 

So I do think there might be something to the notion that "having a reliable outlet he trusts to move the chains" has been a gap.

 

TL;DR Number of punts alone is not a good metric for whether or not the Bills have a chain-moving problem.

 

 

 

Disagree.  Also, fundamentally none of the Bills playoff problems are the fault of the offensive talent. 

Edited March 23 by Chaos

[Maynard]

Just wait until next season. Dude is an absolute stud. Still can’t believe we got him.

[BBFL]

And thus, the boy was given the throne… All hail King Cade!

[Beast]

He got better as the year progressed and he finished the season decently, especially considering Diggs’ disappearing act.

[warrior9]

On 3/21/2024 at 8:54 AM, Coldfronts said:

He needs to muscle up a bit and he will get a lot more YAC. This guy would have been a monster back in the steroid days of football

You are insane if you think these guys aren't on PEDs. There are many that are WAY better than they were back in the day AND most untrackable in blood/ test levels. Don't ask me how I know because I will not explain. 

[Coldfronts]

1 hour ago, warrior9 said:

You are insane if you think these guys aren't on PEDs. There are many that are WAY better than they were back in the day AND most untrackable in blood/ test levels. Don't ask me how I know because I will not explain. 

It's a cat and mouse game.  New methods of cheating the system lead to new methods of testing which lead to new methods for cheating which lead to new methods of testing…and on and on.  In the end they catch up to it.

[warrior9]

4 hours ago, Coldfronts said:

It's a cat and mouse game.  New methods of cheating the system lead to new methods of testing which lead to new methods for cheating which lead to new methods of testing…and on and on.  In the end they catch up to it.

This doesn’t mean it’s not happening. There is NO WAY Nick Bosa has knee surgery, puts on 30 pounds, while he says he stopped eating carbs.. that doesn’t happen. Do you think the NFL is ever testing Nick Bosa or TJ Watt? TJ Watt came back from a fully torn pec in 6 weeks. That’s not normal and can’t be done “naturally”

[ColoradoBills]

I see Dalton and Josh teaming up for years to come.  Dalton's 2nd season will be a big one for him.

As others have said, Brady will get him more targets (and more primary targets) down the seam.

He is a driven player from all reports, so I expect he will be working on a lot of things to improve his overall game.

 

Lots of his drops/incompletions were tough catches and he will adjust to Josh's throwing style more and more.

Dalton needs a lot more targets in the red zone IMO.  That would bring up his TD totals.