Jeremiah has us taking a DT at 28 in his latest mock

[Dr. Who]

53 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

The defense lost many players to injury and there was a significant drop off last year. On top of that, 3 pro bowl caliber players in the secondary are gone in Poyer, Hyde and White. The Defensive Line has only 2 viable starting DTs and the DE position is very suspect. And if Milano goes down to injury again, the LB group will once again drop off significantly. Everyone is so focused on building a great offense that they are greatly underestimating how much we have lost on defense. There are some key pieces, but depth is a huge concern. Not sure how you can consider Edwards an upgrade. Poyer and Hyde were starters and Pro Bowlers in their career. Edwards wasn't even a starter until he was put in due to an injury last year. Hopefully, Our DEs bounce back. Hopefully injury doesn't decimate our secondary. Hopefully, you're right and Johnson is an upgrade to Settle and Ford. Gotta address depth on defense. Offense, could use a couple of pieces, but there is much more to be desired on defense.

You're tilting the field. White was playing better. It's sad, but we did not have his services for much of the season. Poyer and Hyde were at the level of wily veterans. They were not pro bowl caliber players, particularly. Edwards, now, is probably their equal. He's certainly not a huge drop-off from the players who had slowed down. We resigned Epenesa and Jones, who were the two best players that we could have potentially lost on the DL. You can argue Floyd, but he is also older, and dropped off the second half of the season. None of this means we don't need an infusion of talent at S and along the DL. I think they expect Dorian Williams to play a bigger role next year. They may throw a later pick at LB. I like Liufau, the Notre Dame LB. I don't like the DE position in this draft. I especially don't like either of the Robinsons who are touted as first round picks. They're not. It's because of the lack of quality at the position that their value is inflated. It would be a mistake to choose them for that reason, or because it is a position of need. I'd rather take someone like Cedric Johnson on day 3, and some late round flyers. It just isn't a good draft to try and upgrade there.

 

And the WR room does need more talent. Josh Allen has not been served well by the roster construction under Beane, who has not given sufficient weight to the position, though he's attempting to redress that. It's a great draft at WR, and it would be irresponsible not to get one early, and one later on. The X is not on this team yet, and you can't count on anything beyond 2024 with Diggs. If there is a potential WR2 with room to develop into a WR1 that is reachable at #28 or a modest trade up or back, that absolutely should be the priority. You can fill out the roster with the rest of the draft.

 

Edited March 24 by Dr. Who

[gonzo1105]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

nothing against the player…but absolutely not.  DT Murphy is the only D player if available at 28 that I’d consider taking.  Not drafting a WR in Round 1 would be a failure. The talent is simply too good.  Even if it’s the 6th or 7th WR.  They are far more likely to impact the team immediately & going forward

If you’re okay with Murphy you should be okay with Newton. I would argue Newton is the better player 

[Dr. Who]

Just now, gonzo1105 said:

If you’re okay with Murphy you should be okay with Newton. I would argue Newton is the better player 

I agree he is the better player. The only way I would be okay with it is if we tried to trade up for Thomas and failed, tried to trade up for Mitchell and failed, and did not have a sufficiently high grade on Legette to take him at #28, and then could not trade back into the early second. I would probably just take Legette, if it came to that. But in a vacuum, Newton at #28 would be a steal.

[Warriorspikes51]

22 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

If you’re okay with Murphy you should be okay with Newton. I would argue Newton is the better player 

unreasonable bias on my part toward Longhorns. He’s got an intimidating presence

 

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

nothing against the player…but absolutely not.  DT Murphy is the only D player if available at 28 that I’d consider taking.  Not drafting a WR in Round 1 would be a failure. The talent is simply too good.  Even if it’s the 6th or 7th WR.  They are far more likely to impact the team immediately & going forward

I don't like the Darius Robinson idea, but I challenge the idea that not drafting WR in round 1 is "failure".  To me, if Brian Thomas Jr or Mitchell is available, I am completely on-board taking whichever one is there.  If they are both gone (and Harrison Jr, Odunze and Nabers of course are gone), then I would consider other positions or trading back if a suitable offer is available.  I have the highest respect for the guys who can evaluate the game film of these guys and I know some good evaluators like Xavier Legette, but I think you can get him or Troy Franklin 10 picks or more later.  My hesitation with Legette is that he still needs route running refinement and he is an older prospect for a 1st round pick - I'm not saying I wouldn't be happy with him, but there is maybe more risk there than with other players.  Franklin doesn't ring the bell for me, either, but I'd happily take him in a trade down.  Xavier Worthy is just too small for my tastes at pick 28.  

 

To be clear, if the team decides to take Legette, Worthy or Franklin at 28, I will understand and support the pick, I just have some reservations with them.

 

I don't see any other WR that I would strongly consider at 28 - I LOVE McConkey, but I don't think I'd take him there and I think Pearsall is really only a slot guy and too similar to Shakir and Samuel.

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Another Mock Draft (The Athletic 2.0), another DL...

 

28. Buffalo Bills: Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri

The Bills tried to move up to get one of the top four receivers, but once that didn’t work, they had a deal in place to move down … that also fell through. Moving down would be preferred if the board played out this way. But with the depth of the receiver class, there is no reason to force the pick and take someone who doesn’t fit what the Bills need in an X receiver with speed to get over the top. Instead, they used their pick on another premium position and landed a long, versatile defensive lineman — a selection that had Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane written all over it. The vision is to eventually use Robinson as a starting defensive lineman who can play on either edge or inside at defensive tackle, depending on the situation. As a prospect, Robinson has been compared to Arik Armstead, whom the Bills were in on as a free agent. — Joe Buscaglia

 

 

Someone pour me a frosty glass of Clorox thanks 

[BADOLBILZ]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

There are 12 to 15 franchise QBs in the league now and four QBs with contracts over $50M.

 

There's not a single non-QB getting $35M per year by AAV. Not one.

 

And a grand total of THREE non-QBs earning $30M or up.

 

So you're wildly inflating your numbers there. Why push unreasonable narratives?

 

This is one factor that should be looked at with early picks, certainly. But one of many.

 

 

 

 

To understand this you must be able to understand the concept of "current market value".

 

To calculate CMV you begin with the recent contract comparison approach to estimate your player's value. 

 

The last "intact" young franchise QB to sign an extension was Joe Burrow at last seasons' cap figures and he got $55M aav.   

 

So $50M is just so obviously not "wildly inflating numbers".

 

In fact, $50M is not even the floor anymore.

 

Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love aren't as accomplished as Glass Joe but they will pass that aav very shortly just like lesser QB's have lapped Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.   

 

Two full years ago Davonte Adams signed a $28M aav deal and a week later Tyreek Hill signed a $30M aav contract.

 

Justin Jefferson is the next proven WR1 up and he will pass those figures by a lot.   The former Vikings GM Jeff Diamond predicts a $34.5M aav.......which is probably a little light, IMO.   So that will become the floor and other proven but lesser WR1's will begin passing that in short order.

 

All of these players mentioned were drafted or acquired with AT LEAST one first round pick.

 

Which tells you that by far the most likely (reasonable) way to get a difference maker in a matchup league like the NFL is thru the use of a first round pick.  

 

 

 

 

Edited March 25 by BADOLBILZ

[Thurman#1]

20 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

To understand this you must be able to understand the concept of "current market value".

 

To calculate CMV you begin with the recent contract comparison approach to estimate your player's value. 

 

The last "intact" young franchise QB to sign an extension was Joe Burrow at last seasons' cap figures and he got $55M aav.   

 

So $50M is just so obviously not "wildly inflating numbers".

 

In fact, $50M is not even the floor anymore.

 

Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love aren't as accomplished as Glass Joe but they will pass that aav very shortly just like lesser QB's have lapped Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.   

 

Two full years ago Davonte Adams signed a $28M aav deal and a week later Tyreek Hill signed a $30M aav contract.

 

Justin Jefferson is the next proven WR1 up and he will pass those figures by a lot.   The former Vikings GM Jeff Diamond predicts a $34.5M aav.......which is probably a little light, IMO.   So that will become the floor and other proven but lesser WR1's will begin passing that in short order.

 

All of these players mentioned were drafted or acquired with AT LEAST one first round pick.

 

Which tells you that by far the most likely (reasonable) way to get a difference maker in a matchup league like the NFL is thru the use of a first round pick.  

 

 

 

 

Wow!!! I have to understand the concept of "current market value"? Wow!! But but but ... those words have more than two syllables, most of 'em.

 

Thank goodness we have real real smart people like you to explain difficult concepts like "current market value." Gosh, you must have a large head!! Thanks for passing on your smartitude!!! Wow!! Gaaaaw-ly, Sarjint!

 

Definitions aside, you absolutely are wildly inflating values. Your exact words were, "Franchise QB's are $50M now. Elite pass rusher, LT are $35M now."

 

Both of those are nonsense. You can't say elite pass rushers are $35M when ABSOLUTELY NONE of the are at that level, including Bosa who just got his contract. Same with LT. ABSOLUTELY NONE of the best LTs in the league are making the money you claimed. The absolute best that could be said about that is that it's pure guesswork. 

 

You then go on and say "Justin Jefferson is the next proven WR1 up and he will pass those figures by a lot. The former Vikings GM Jeff Diamond predicts a $34.5M aav." Yeah, um, you didn't say anything about WRs. And the lowest number that I contested was $35M. Now, where I come from, $34.5M is not "passing those figures [$35M] by a lot. Or at all, actually. None of the numbers you mentioned, which presumably you thought were your best examples, did. None.

 

You'd have had an argument if you'd said elite or near-elite QBs were $50M. But you didn't say that. You said "franchise QB," and there are a lot more franchise guys than the four making $50M or more.

 

Those are both pretty much the definition of wildly inflated numbers. Will they reach those eventually ... say some time in the NEAR FUTURE, next year or two? There's a good argument for that. But that's not what you said even in this dumb reply. You said, "CURRENT market value."

 

The sad thing is that all you had to do is say something along the lines of "Franchise QBs, elite pass rushers and LTs are really expensive right now." You'd have been right. But no, you had to pump up your numbers beyond reason.

 

 

 

Again, the rising prices of contracts is indeed a factor in draft decisions. Factors with a higher priority would be things like BPA at a position of need, scheme fit, and whether you already have guys you're happy with at the position.

 

 

[Dillenger4]

8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Wow!!! I have to understand the concept of "current market value"? Wow!! But but but ... those words have more than two syllables, most of 'em.

 

Thank goodness we have real real smart people like you to explain difficult concepts like "current market value." Gosh, you must have a large head!! Thanks for passing on your smartitude!!! Wow!! Gaaaaw-ly, Sarjint!

 

Definitions aside, you absolutely are wildly inflating values. Your exact words were, "Franchise QB's are $50M now. Elite pass rusher, LT are $35M now."

 

Both of those are nonsense. You can't say elite pass rushers are $35M when ABSOLUTELY NONE of the are at that level, including Bosa who just got his contract. Same with LT. ABSOLUTELY NONE of the best LTs in the league are making the money you claimed. The absolute best that could be said about that is that it's pure guesswork. 

 

You then go on and say "Justin Jefferson is the next proven WR1 up and he will pass those figures by a lot. The former Vikings GM Jeff Diamond predicts a $34.5M aav." Yeah, um, you didn't say anything about WRs. And the lowest number that I contested was $35M. Now, where I come from, $34.5M is not "passing those figures [$35M] by a lot. Or at all, actually. None of the numbers you mentioned, which presumably you thought were your best examples, did. None.

 

You'd have had an argument if you'd said elite or near-elite QBs were $50M. But you didn't say that. You said "franchise QB," and there are a lot more franchise guys than the four making $50M or more.

 

Those are both pretty much the definition of wildly inflated numbers. Will they reach those eventually ... say some time in the NEAR FUTURE, next year or two? There's a good argument for that. But that's not what you said even in this dumb reply. You said, "CURRENT market value."

 

The sad thing is that all you had to do is say something along the lines of "Franchise QBs, elite pass rushers and LTs are really expensive right now." You'd have been right. But no, you had to pump up your numbers beyond reason.

 

 

 

Again, the rising prices of contracts is indeed a factor in draft decisions. Factors with a higher priority would be things like BPA at a position of need, scheme fit, and whether you already have guys you're happy with at the position.

 

 

Temper tantrums don't win. Just sayin....

[OldTimer1960]

23 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

You're tilting the field. White was playing better. It's sad, but we did not have his services for much of the season. Poyer and Hyde were at the level of wily veterans. They were not pro bowl caliber players, particularly. Edwards, now, is probably their equal. He's certainly not a huge drop-off from the players who had slowed down. We resigned Epenesa and Jones, who were the two best players that we could have potentially lost on the DL. You can argue Floyd, but he is also older, and dropped off the second half of the season. None of this means we don't need an infusion of talent at S and along the DL. I think they expect Dorian Williams to play a bigger role next year. They may throw a later pick at LB. I like Liufau, the Notre Dame LB. I don't like the DE position in this draft. I especially don't like either of the Robinsons who are touted as first round picks. They're not. It's because of the lack of quality at the position that their value is inflated. It would be a mistake to choose them for that reason, or because it is a position of need. I'd rather take someone like Cedric Johnson on day 3, and some late round flyers. It just isn't a good draft to try and upgrade there.

 

And the WR room does need more talent. Josh Allen has not been served well by the roster construction under Beane, who has not given sufficient weight to the position, though he's attempting to redress that. It's a great draft at WR, and it would be irresponsible not to get one early, and one later on. The X is not on this team yet, and you can't count on anything beyond 2024 with Diggs. If there is a potential WR2 with room to develop into a WR1 that is reachable at #28 or a modest trade up or back, that absolutely should be the priority. You can fill out the roster with the rest of the draft.

 

I agree mostly, but I like what I’ve seen of Chop Robinson vs Michigan, Ohio State and IIRC, Iowa.  He made impact in each of those games with numerous pressures, though I think only 1 sack.  That’s against some of the best college competition (admittedly not SEC).

[gonzo1105]

1 hour ago, Dillenger4 said:

Temper tantrums don't win. Just sayin....

It’s not a temper tantrum if it’s factual 

[Dr. Who]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I agree mostly, but I like what I’ve seen of Chop Robinson vs Michigan, Ohio State and IIRC, Iowa.  He made impact in each of those games with numerous pressures, though I think only 1 sack.  That’s against some of the best college competition (admittedly not SEC).

I just don't see a first round talent there, but he has traits. If Beane goes that way, he better be prepared to trade up from #60 to grab a WR, because there's going to be a run on the position early to mid-second round. How unhappy I would be with that scenario is dependent on who Beane passed on at #28 to select Chop, and who he ultimately takes at WR. I actually have greater confidence in Cooper Dejean or Newton and Murphy being good NFL players, if you are just looking at late first players on D. As I said, I'm not sold on the edge players in this draft. You could make an argument for Latu, if he falls that far.

[OldTimer1960]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I just don't see a first round talent there, but he has traits. If Beane goes that way, he better be prepared to trade up from #60 to grab a WR, because there's going to be a run on the position early to mid-second round. How unhappy I would be with that scenario is dependent on who Beane passed on at #28 to select Chop, and who he ultimately takes at WR. I actually have greater confidence in Cooper Dejean or Newton and Murphy being good NFL players, if you are just looking at late first players on D. As I said, I'm not sold on the edge players in this draft. You could make an argument for Latu, if he falls that far.

I’m not trying to convince anyone that the Bills should take Robinson.  I am just saying that I’ve watched 3 games vs Big 10 competition and I see that he has made an impact in those games (to my eyes).  This isn’t the game video that I’ve watched, but this is all his rush snaps vs Michigan.    He isn’t perfect, but his athletic traits are at least as impressive as any of the WR in this class and are basically the best of the edges in the class.  
 

Again, not arguing to pick him, but I would understand if they do.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

16 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I’m not trying to convince anyone that the Bills should take Robinson.  I am just saying that I’ve watched 3 games vs Big 10 competition and I see that he has made an impact in those games (to my eyes).  This isn’t the game video that I’ve watched, but this is all his rush snaps vs Michigan.    He isn’t perfect, but his athletic traits are at least as impressive as any of the WR in this class and are basically the best of the edges in the class.  
 

Again, not arguing to pick him, but I would understand if they do.

 

 

I didn't get the impression you were lobbying for him. I think there's a fair chance he could be the selection.

[billsfan89]

As long as the Bills take the best player at either offensive line, defensive line or WR I am good with the pick. The Bills taking a DT is a need as having another big guy next to Ed for the next 4 years is a good thing and offensive help can be had at pick 60. Same goes for DE.

 

I just don’t want to see a safety as not only do I think it’s not as premium a position anymore but as the combo they have in Rapp/Edwards I can live with. I also think the depth at safety can be addressed later on.

 

TE, QB, CB, RB, and LB are either not needs or depth needs that can be addressed in the mid or late rounds.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Wow!!! I have to understand the concept of "current market value"? Wow!! But but but ... those words have more than two syllables, most of 'em.

 

Thank goodness we have real real smart people like you to explain difficult concepts like "current market value." Gosh, you must have a large head!! Thanks for passing on your smartitude!!! Wow!! Gaaaaw-ly, Sarjint!

 

Definitions aside, you absolutely are wildly inflating values. Your exact words were, "Franchise QB's are $50M now. Elite pass rusher, LT are $35M now."

 

Both of those are nonsense. You can't say elite pass rushers are $35M when ABSOLUTELY NONE of the are at that level, including Bosa who just got his contract. Same with LT. ABSOLUTELY NONE of the best LTs in the league are making the money you claimed. The absolute best that could be said about that is that it's pure guesswork. 

 

You then go on and say "Justin Jefferson is the next proven WR1 up and he will pass those figures by a lot. The former Vikings GM Jeff Diamond predicts a $34.5M aav." Yeah, um, you didn't say anything about WRs. And the lowest number that I contested was $35M. Now, where I come from, $34.5M is not "passing those figures [$35M] by a lot. Or at all, actually. None of the numbers you mentioned, which presumably you thought were your best examples, did. None.

 

You'd have had an argument if you'd said elite or near-elite QBs were $50M. But you didn't say that. You said "franchise QB," and there are a lot more franchise guys than the four making $50M or more.

 

Those are both pretty much the definition of wildly inflated numbers. Will they reach those eventually ... say some time in the NEAR FUTURE, next year or two? There's a good argument for that. But that's not what you said even in this dumb reply. You said, "CURRENT market value."

 

The sad thing is that all you had to do is say something along the lines of "Franchise QBs, elite pass rushers and LTs are really expensive right now." You'd have been right. But no, you had to pump up your numbers beyond reason.

 

 

 

Again, the rising prices of contracts is indeed a factor in draft decisions. Factors with a higher priority would be things like BPA at a position of need, scheme fit, and whether you already have guys you're happy with at the position.

 

 

 

 

Let me try to explain it a little more simply for you.    Let's say there a 10 identical McMansions to yours on your cul-de-sac.   3 of them sold for about $1M in the last 6 months.   Even though you only paid $250K for yours a certain number of years ago that really doesn't matter..........the current market value of your home is still going to be "about $1M".       

 

That's the way it works with QB contracts.   Sure, as you say there are only 4 with aav's over $50M now.    But that's not the current market value.   Joe Burrow re-set that market value at $55M last summer.  

 

Since then the salary cap has increased substantially, once again.   Beyond a doubt if ANY of Mahomes, Allen, Lawrence, Herbert, Love or Stroud(and perhaps even Purdy, Tua and Goff) were granted free agency tomorrow they would get or exceed $50M aav.

 

So at least 10-13 prime age starting QB's are earning or worth $50M aav on the open market.  I don't see how you can be so obtuse about this.   It's obvious.   Nitting over the definition of "elite" or "franchise" is pointless.   Anyone who I didn't list is aged out of the top of the market or neither considered elite or franchise level.  

 

Since Tyreek Hill signed his $30M aav deal in spring of 2022 there hasn't been a prime age WR1 signing.   The salary cap has increased by $47M from the $208M figure at the time.   That's a 23% increase.   That would project the value of a $30M contract THEN........to $37M in todays cap dollars.  

 

And that's how the agents for Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle are going to explain it.   I don't think it would be a surprise if guys who are currently WR2's on their teams like Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith or Brandon Aiyuk got something very similar and they've never even actually been a WR1 for their team yet.    I shouldn't have to explain it much more than that.      

 

But the truth is..........you are worrying about the wrong thing.   My CMV's are correct or understated.  But when these guys actually hit the UFA market in 4 or 5 years the numbers will be A LOT higher than $55M/$35M respectively.   A LOT.

 

What's important is the % of the cap these players eat up.   The top players at premium positions EACH eat up 12.5%-25% of a teams salary cap in aav at signing.    Sure, some of that money will get spread out etc..  It has to.   But either way that's an astonishing % of slotted payroll on a team where you have around 47-53 players that actually count in the cap formula (depending how many league min salaries you have on the back end).    

 

Being able to have a cost controlled and relatively very-inexpensive player at one of these super-expensive premium positions is incredibly valuable.   As is actually having that player who makes a difference at game changing positions like QB or an edge/island position.    That's why you don't want to f*ck around just drafting "good football players" like RB/C/G/off-ball LB etc.. in round 1.   Round 1 needs to be an upside play because that's how you get those players in most cases.  

 

It's not just "a factor".   It's a HUGE factor.   If it's not, you are doing it wrong.

 

Now if the argument is "you can't expect every 1st round pick to become elite at their position...........the FACT is that you can't expect any more than half of 1st rounders at any of the positions to even justify picking up their 5th year option.   So try as you might to mitigate risk,  it's still a high risk.   And nobody drafts a DE in round 1 thinking "boy, I hope he becomes the 64th best starting DE in the league".    Everyone hopes that first round pick will become one of the top players at their position in the league.  

 

 

Edited March 25 by BADOLBILZ

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Let me try to explain it a little more simply for you.    Let's say there a 10 identical McMansions to yours on your cul-de-sac.   3 of them sold for about $1M in the last 6 months.   Even though you only paid $250K for yours a certain number of years ago that really doesn't matter..........the current market value of your home is still going to be "about $1M".       

 

That's the way it works with QB contracts.   Sure, as you say there are only 4 with aav's over $50M now.    But that's not the current market value.   Joe Burrow re-set that market value at $55M last summer.  

 

Since then the salary cap has increased substantially, once again.   Beyond a doubt if ANY of Mahomes, Allen, Lawrence, Herbert, Love or Stroud(and perhaps even Purdy, Tua and Goff) were granted free agency tomorrow they would get or exceed $50M aav.

 

So at least 10-13 prime age starting QB's are earning or worth $50M aav on the open market.  I don't see how you can be so obtuse about this.   It's obvious.   Nitting over the definition of "elite" or "franchise" is pointless.   Anyone who I didn't list is aged out of the top of the market or neither considered elite or franchise level.  

 

Since Tyreek Hill signed his $30M aav deal in spring of 2022 there hasn't been a prime age WR1 signing.   The salary cap has increased by $47M from the $208M figure at the time.   That's a 23% increase.   That would project the value of a $30M contract THEN........to $37M in todays cap dollars.  

 

And that's how the agents for Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle are going to explain it.   I don't think it would be a surprise if guys who are currently WR2's on their teams like Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith or Brandon Aiyuk got something very similar and they've never even actually been a WR1 for their team yet.    I shouldn't have to explain it much more than that.      

 

But the truth is..........you are worrying about the wrong thing.   My CMV's are correct or understated.  But when these guys actually hit the UFA market in 4 or 5 years the numbers will be A LOT higher than $55M/$35M respectively.   A LOT.

 

What's important is the % of the cap these players eat up.   The top players at premium positions EACH eat up 12.5%-25% of a teams salary cap in aav at signing.    Sure, some of that money will get spread out etc..  It has to.   But either way that's an astonishing % of slotted payroll on a team where you have around 47-53 players that actually count in the cap formula (depending how many league min salaries you have on the back end).    

 

Being able to have a cost controlled and relatively very-inexpensive player at one of these super-expensive premium positions is incredibly valuable.   As is actually having that player who makes a difference at game changing positions like QB or an edge/island position.    That's why you don't want to f*ck around just drafting "good football players" like RB/C/G/off-ball LB etc.. in round 1.   Round 1 needs to be an upside play because that's how you get those players in most cases.  

 

It's not just "a factor".   It's a HUGE factor.   If it's not, you are doing it wrong.

 

Now if the argument is "you can't expect every 1st round pick to become elite at their position...........the FACT is that you can't expect any more than half of 1st rounders at any of the positions to even justify picking up their 5th year option.   So try as you might to mitigate risk,  it's still a high risk.   And nobody drafts a DE in round 1 thinking "boy, I hope he becomes the 64th best starting DE in the league".    Everyone hopes that first round pick will become one of the top players at their position in the league.  

 

 

 

 

Gee. I stand in the shadow of your genius at being able to understand that you shouldn't spend more than you have and that important things tend to cost more. Which is basically what you took hundreds of words to tell us despite the fact that we already know all of it.

 

If you're going to attempt condescension, you ought to have something to say that's not boring and obvious to all.

 

It's a factor. It's an important factor, if you need that word. But others are far more important. I've said this for three straight posts now. But I guess if you want to continue to pretend that I don't think it's a significant factor, or that I don't understand it, fell free to blow some more hot air at the problem in your next post as well.

 

As I actually did say, it falls 1)  far below getting the BPA at a position of need, particularly in the early rounds, 2)  far below finding guys who fit your scheme, and 3)  far below not using high draft picks to bring in backups for guys you're already happy with who are playing well when you've got areas of relative weakness.

 

Another thing you ought to understand if you're going to attempt condescension is what the terms you use mean. You said, "current market value." You even bolded it. I'm sure that felt very macho to you. Did you flex as you bolded it? 

 

Thing is, you misused it in a rather stupid way. In the phrase "current market value," you apparently haven't realized that the word "current" means "now." What it does NOT mean is "in the future." 

 

The idea that Joe Burrow set the current market value for franchise QBs is idiotic. Joe Burrow set the current market value for Joe Burrow. And a bit more generally for elite to near-elite QBs. But that's not what you referenced. You referenced "franchise QBs." The idea that the 12 or 15 franchise QBs in the league are now worth $50M because Joe Burrow is worth $50M is just dumb.

 

You say it's "beyond a doubt ..." that these guys get contracts over $50M. Here's a clue for you, when you predict events in the future you are guessing. It is absolutely NOT beyond a doubt. IMO for several of those guys it's a very good possibility. And for several more of the names you mentioned much lower. More, it's precisely that guys like Allen, Lawrence and Mahomes, the elite, are NOT getting contracts soon that keeps values down. What is Allen's value? Take a look at his contract. That's his value. That's what value means. The fact that he could get more if he was getting a contract now is beside the point. That's his theoretical value, not his value. He's signed. He ain't getting more until some time in the future they negotiate for it. theoretical value. His value is what his contract says it is.

 

In the future as prices rise, franchise QBs may well become worth that. They are not now, despite the fact that Joe Burrow is. Atlanta was thrilled to bring in a new franchise QB in Kirk Cousins. He got $45M. That's the latest data point for franchise QBs who are non-elite.

 

Again, your exact words were, "Franchise QB's are $50M now. Elite pass rusher, LT are $35M now." Nonsense, particularly when the highest LT contract is $25M now. Saying the market is $35 is complete nonsense.

 

You at least have Burrow to try to make your argument about QBs. Where is your data point to that elite pass rushers and LTs are $35M now? There are none.

 

Not one non-QB has made $35M. Not one. "Let me try to explain it a little more clearly for you," as you so kindly put it. Not one means zero. None. The situation has not yet occurred. If it does, it will be in the FUTURE. Again, "let me try to explain it a little more clearly for you." The future is what happens after now. Later. See? You don't know for sure what will happen in the future till it happens.

 

And in the NOW, three non-QBs have made $30M or more, and none $35M or more.

 

Your guesses about future events are certainly not "current market value." Know who sets the market? The market does. Not some doofus guessing on the internet, whether you or me. In the future, we will see what the market says. At some point it will indeed reach that point. That point is not now.

 

 

 

Edited March 26 by Thurman#1

[dollars 2 donuts]

2-WRs, a DL and a DB in the first 4 rounds.

 

(My apologies for being so wordy)

 

 

@nucci

[nucci]

1 minute ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

2-WRs, a DL and a DB in the first 4 rounds.

 

(My apologies for being so wordy)

 

 

@nucci

People like you because you're polite and rarely late

[dollars 2 donuts]

1 minute ago, nucci said:

People like you because you're polite and rarely late

I’ve worshipped at your alter, my brother, of having the gift for using the exact number of words to do the job. It is a blessing to us all.