Jeremiah has us taking a DT at 28 in his latest mock

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I’m not trying to convince anyone that the Bills should take Robinson.  I am just saying that I’ve watched 3 games vs Big 10 competition and I see that he has made an impact in those games (to my eyes).  This isn’t the game video that I’ve watched, but this is all his rush snaps vs Michigan.    He isn’t perfect, but his athletic traits are at least as impressive as any of the WR in this class and are basically the best of the edges in the class.  
 

Again, not arguing to pick him, but I would understand if they do.

 

 

 

 

I wouldn't mind him if they like him.

 

Recently I've seen at least two draft sources who wouldn't be surprised if he goes within the top twenty. Neither is predicting him there, but neither would be surprised.

 

A fantastic first step is an awfully good start in a pass rusher's evaluation, and nobody seems to disagree that Robinson has serious giddyup.

[Thurman#1]

On 3/25/2024 at 2:40 AM, Dr. Who said:

You're tilting the field. White was playing better. It's sad, but we did not have his services for much of the season. Poyer and Hyde were at the level of wily veterans. They were not pro bowl caliber players, particularly. Edwards, now, is probably their equal. He's certainly not a huge drop-off from the players who had slowed down. We resigned Epenesa and Jones, who were the two best players that we could have potentially lost on the DL. You can argue Floyd, but he is also older, and dropped off the second half of the season. None of this means we don't need an infusion of talent at S and along the DL. I think they expect Dorian Williams to play a bigger role next year. They may throw a later pick at LB. I like Liufau, the Notre Dame LB. I don't like the DE position in this draft. I especially don't like either of the Robinsons who are touted as first round picks. They're not. It's because of the lack of quality at the position that their value is inflated. It would be a mistake to choose them for that reason, or because it is a position of need. I'd rather take someone like Cedric Johnson on day 3, and some late round flyers. It just isn't a good draft to try and upgrade there.

 

And the WR room does need more talent. Josh Allen has not been served well by the roster construction under Beane, who has not given sufficient weight to the position, though he's attempting to redress that. It's a great draft at WR, and it would be irresponsible not to get one early, and one later on. The X is not on this team yet, and you can't count on anything beyond 2024 with Diggs. If there is a potential WR2 with room to develop into a WR1 that is reachable at #28 or a modest trade up or back, that absolutely should be the priority. You can fill out the roster with the rest of the draft.

 

 

 

I don't think it's fair to say Edwards is the equal of even last year's Poyer and Hyde. Even a step slower dealing with the injuries late in the year, Poyer was starting caliber. 

 

Edwards has not even started consistently. Two years ago he played 94% of snaps. The next year right back around his career level of 57%.  He has a lot to prove. Poyer and Hyde weren't probably any better athletes than Edwards. It was that they'd both played a lot and developed really good chemistry fairly quickly. Can we count on that happening with Rapp and Edwards? I don't think we can, though it's certainly a possibility.

 

I do agree with you that White was really playing better as time passed. Made it much sadder to see him go down again.

 

I'd argue the order of importance for DL re-signs went Jones, then Floyd close, then Epenesa further behind. Floyd was really good here last year. Even though he did slow up in the end, other than possibly Ed Oliver, Floyd was easily our best pass rusher over the course of the year. We haven't replaced those pressures. We can hope Von replaces them, but it's far from a sure thing.

 

And we've been most successful against Mahomes when we were pressuring him a bit. We did not do that in the playoffs last year. It's hard to sack the guy because he moves so well, but if you keep him moving you stand a much better chance against him. We didn't really do that. 

 

We will need to start.

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

-As I actually did say, it falls 1)  far below getting the BPA at a position of need, particularly in the early rounds, 2)  far below finding guys who fit your scheme, and 3)  far below not using high draft picks to bring in backups for guys you're already happy with who are playing well when you've got areas of relative weakness.

 

-In the phrase "current market value," you apparently haven't realized that the word "current" means "now." What it does NOT mean is "in the future." 

 

-The idea that Joe Burrow set the current market value for franchise QBs is idiotic. Joe Burrow set the current market value for Joe Burrow. 

 

-You say it's "beyond a doubt ..." that these guys get contracts over $50M.  Atlanta was thrilled to bring in a new franchise QB in Kirk Cousins. He got $45M. That's the latest data point for franchise QBs who are non-elite.

 

 

 

 

So to clarify:

 

1) Your #1 priority in round 1 is just getting the BPA at a position of immediate need.

 

2) And you doubt that Justin Jefferson would get a $35M aav contract in this free agent cycle if he were a free?

 

3) And that Joe Burrow didn't set the market for a franchise QB in his prime with his $55M aav deal?  

 

4) And you have doubt that Mahomes, Allen, Lawrence, Herbert, Love and Stroud would get $50M aav deals if any of them became free agents in this cycle?

 

5) As I said,  Kirk Cousins at 36 coming off of a torn achilles is not relevant to the discussion.   He's well past his prime.  We are talking SPECIFICALLY about the draft and players who will be hitting free agency in 4-5 years.  As I said, anyone not mentioned is probably aged out of a top contract or NOT a franchise QB.   Who didn't I list that is both a franchise QB and in their prime?   Name them.  Baker Mayfield(?) who was a street free agent as recently as 2022?   

 

6) Since you totally ignored the points about the salary cap increasing by 23% since Tyreek's $30M aav deal in 2022 there isn't any point of addressing the rest of your ramble.   CMV is what something would sell for if it is available currently.   As in NOW.   The fact that it's been a couple years top players at premium positions have reached free agency is not proof that CMV for a top WR1 in his prime is still just $30M.   It's ignorance to believe that.

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

So to clarify:    You're not clarifying. You're trying to twist what I said and create straw men.

 

1) Your #1 priority in round 1 is just getting the BPA at a position of immediate need.      

I see what you did there. Your usual misleading tactic. In future, here’s a clue. If you’d like to know what I mean, go look at what I actually say. Here’s what you DON’T do: deliberately change what I said to create a strawman the way you did here. Here’s what I said, with your little addition. I said, “BPA at a position of immediate need.” That was you trying to sneak in the word “immediate” there, an intellectually dishonest tactic.

 

2) And you doubt that Justin Jefferson would get a $35M aav contract in this free agent cycle if he were a free?      

 

ASKED AND ANSWERED. Want to know what I meant? Here’s what I said:  “You then go on and say "Justin Jefferson is the next proven WR1 up and he will pass those figures by a lot. The former Vikings GM Jeff Diamond predicts a $34.5M aav." Yeah, um, first you didn't say anything about WRs. You only mentioned  And second,  the lowest number that I contested was $35M. Now, where I come from, $34.5M is not 'passing those figures [$35M] by a lot.' Or at all, actually. None of the numbers you mentioned, which presumably you thought were your best examples, did. None."

     

Once again moving the goal posts.

 

And it was you who mentioned the $34.5M figure from Jeff Diamond. That wasn’t me. It was you. Go attack the guy who presented $34.5 as evidence.

 

3) And that Joe Burrow didn't set the market for a franchise QB in his prime with his $55M aav deal?          

 

ASKED AND ANSWERED. Here’s what I said, “"The idea that Joe Burrow set the current market value for franchise QBs is idiotic. Joe Burrow set the current market value for Joe Burrow. And a bit more generally for elite to near-elite QBs."

 

4) And you have doubt that Mahomes, Allen, Lawrence, Herbert, Love and Stroud would get $50M aav deals if any of them became free agents in this cycle?    

 

Misleading. And irrelevant. Mahomes, Allen and Lawrence already have a value. It can be found on Spotrac. Your contract shows your value.

 

Herbert already has a contract of over $50M. (Spotrac) He's one of the four guys already there. He’s the one where there should be zero doubt.

 

Love? Yeah, I have some doubt. His contract is coming up soon, so it’s worth talking about. If he has another year like this one in 2024, I would have very little doubt. If they were forced to make a contract now, after only one really good year? Green Bay might very reasonably not want to pay $50M yet. He might get injured, regress or be a one-year wonder. Same with Stroud. If he keeps it up, in the future he will be extremely likely to get a contract that high. IN THE FUTURE.

 

The other three guys you mentioned? Yup, I have some doubts.

  

 

5) As I said,  Kirk Cousins at 36 coming off of a torn achilles is not relevant to the discussion.   He's well past his prime.  We are talking SPECIFICALLY about the draft and players who will be hitting free agency in 4-5 years.  As I said, anyone not mentioned is probably aged out of a top contract or NOT a franchise QB.   Who didn't I list that is both a franchise QB and in their prime?   Name them.  Baker Mayfield(?) who was a street free agent as recently as 2022?   

 

More moving the goal posts. You said franchise QBs. All of a sudden, you say, “We are talking SPECIFICALLY about the draft and players who will be hitting free agency in 4 – 5 years.” Yeah, um, you never said that. It’s just a convenient caveat for you to throw in way after the discussion has started.

All you said was franchise QBs and their “current market value.” Your words. Cousins has never counted much on his athleticism. He’s likely to be just what he’s been. You also never said, "in their prime" till now. More moving the goal posts

 

6) Since you totally ignored the points about the salary cap increasing by 23% since Tyreek's $30M aav deal in 2022 there isn't any point of addressing the rest of your ramble.   CMV is what something would sell for if it is available currently.   As in NOW.   The fact that it's been a couple years top players at premium positions have reached free agency is not proof that CMV for a top WR1 in his prime is still just $30M.   It's ignorance to believe that.

  

Nonsense. It's not ignorance to say you don't know what the immediate future will hold, or that you don't know the market better than the market does. It's the opposite, it's smart and realistic.

 

And if you're going to look at CMV that way then it's not really relevant to the NFL. NFL players are not fungible. All you can do is guess until you reach a contractual agreement. And the NFL's economics are not ordinary due to the NFL's monopoly. Josh can't quit and sell himself elsewhere. Yeah, you can make up a pure guess what he'd get. But that's all it would be is a pure guess. 

 

 

Because Josh's actual value is definitely established for years, he fits perfectly into contract lists. And those lists are what are used to form contract comparisons and come up with future contracts for guys who actually go on the market.

 

 

Any owner would laugh in your face if you said, "I think Josh Allen's CMV is X, and therefore my guy is worth X + 2, or X - 3." It would be a complete joke. What they all look at is what the top contracts actually are at the moment and how your guy fits into the hierarchy. Not what some internet doofus thinks is Josh's CMV. The idea is a complete joke.

 

And the fact is that some years prices go up at some positions, stay the same at others and go down at others. And other years it's different. Around 12 years ago there was a five or so year period where QB salaries just didn't go up. Then they did. The cap went up through the whole period. But not QB salaries. Salaries at other positions went up. But not QBs.

 

Kid yourself if you must. You're guessing at future values and then basing your argument on the guess.

 

It's stupid. You can't be sure of anything. You can make educated guesses. But when you start to think you know what will happen in the future, you're only showing how little you get it.

 

 

As for the cap going up, the market has already adjusted. The cap going up doesn't need to be mentioned. It's in the past. We've already had a ton of new contracts made since that announcement, including All-Pro Chris Jones, one of the best defenders in the league. Not over $35M. That extra money didn't change what Jones got. Contracts don't go up in exact parallel with the cap. They go up. They stay the same, they go down (RBs, for example). What's ignorance to believe... is that your guess at the future is better proof than what the market itself shows.

 

Also, FOR LIKE THE THIRD TIME, you did NOT mention $30M as what non-QBs were NOW worth. It was $35M. To remind you yet again:
             
 

On 3/23/2024 at 12:32 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Franchise QB's are $50M now. Elite pass rusher, WR, LT are $35M range now.  

               

            

YOU are the one who said this. Changing it now to suddenly $30M is calling your shot and then moving the goal posts closer (an argumentative specialty of yours).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Answers in red above.

 

But basically, you claimed to be trying to "clarify" what I meant. And then you threw out misunderstandings and straw men that were either deliberate or show really really pitiful understanding. If you want to know what I said, read what I said. This ain't rocket science.

 

Don't paraphrase me, because you appear to be extremely bad at it. Quote me. That way we all know you're playing it straight.

 

You also put on an absolute clinic in moving the goal posts.

 

The constant mis-statements of what you said and what I said make it increasingly impossible to have a reasonable conversation with you.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I don't think it's fair to say Edwards is the equal of even last year's Poyer and Hyde. Even a step slower dealing with the injuries late in the year, Poyer was starting caliber. 

 

Edwards has not even started consistently. Two years ago he played 94% of snaps. The next year right back around his career level of 57%.  He has a lot to prove. Poyer and Hyde weren't probably any better athletes than Edwards. It was that they'd both played a lot and developed really good chemistry fairly quickly. Can we count on that happening with Rapp and Edwards? I don't think we can, though it's certainly a possibility.

 

I do agree with you that White was really playing better as time passed. Made it much sadder to see him go down again.

 

I'd argue the order of importance for DL re-signs went Jones, then Floyd close, then Epenesa further behind. Floyd was really good here last year. Even though he did slow up in the end, other than possibly Ed Oliver, Floyd was easily our best pass rusher over the course of the year. We haven't replaced those pressures. We can hope Von replaces them, but it's far from a sure thing.

 

And we've been most successful against Mahomes when we were pressuring him a bit. We did not do that in the playoffs last year. It's hard to sack the guy because he moves so well, but if you keep him moving you stand a much better chance against him. We didn't really do that. 

 

We will need to start.

I don't think Rapp and Edwards are really equal to even late career Poyer and Hyde, but I don't believe the gulf is immense. They still need to add at S. It's a decent draft to grab one. Assuming they wait till the mid-rounds, I like Tykee Smith and Jaylon Carlies. Hopefully one of them will be there. (I'm not talking about day 2 fellas, but there are some good ones.) 

 

I think Beane can probably get someone like Clowney as a post-draft signing. I just don't like most of the early edge players in the draft, especially the ones likely to be there at #28. And since I favor WR, the narrative I tell is aimed in that direction.

 

My belief is we should be a much more dangerous offense with Josh Allen, and if we were, it would make the job of the D easier, because the opposing offense would be forced into more predictable and desperate straits. It wouldn't always happen, and it is always better if you have a ferocious DL. You also have to have access to the players that make that possible. Maybe you think we do, but I am skeptical, and as I said, I want to try a different gambit. I hope you don't feel inclined to answer with red letters.

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Answers in red above.

 

But basically, you claimed to be trying to "clarify" what I meant. And then you threw out misunderstandings and straw men that were either deliberate or show really really pitiful understanding. If you want to know what I said, read what I said. This ain't rocket science.

 

Don't paraphrase me, because you appear to be extremely bad at it. Quote me. That way we all know you're playing it straight.

 

You also put on an absolute clinic in moving the goal posts.

 

The constant mis-statements of what you said and what I said make it increasingly impossible to have a reasonable conversation with you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So Josh Allen wouldn't get a $50M aav contract if he became a free agent right now?    Yeah, OK Thurm.

 

I'm not even going to address the rest of that nonsense.    Learn how to respond to a post.  You don't edit the other person's post.   It gets compressed and it confuses some people who arrive late as to who wrote what.  

 

I'm done arguing with an idiot at this point.    I shouldn't have engaged your stupidity anyway.   My bad. 

 

 

Edited March 27 by BADOLBILZ

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 3/22/2024 at 4:46 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I think him at #60 is a realistic prospect.

 

I hope so, im hearing third round now

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

On 3/19/2024 at 4:56 PM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

/wrist

 

Good Lord, this would be an AWFUL idea