2024 DL Class Discussion

[GunnerBill]

46 minutes ago, wppete said:

I agree. If Sweat is there in the second take him. Also if by some miracle Byron Murphy falls to #28 thats a no brainer. Hes the best DT in this draft. 

 

I think Newton is the best DT in the draft but I love Murphy too. The issue with both is they are 3Ts. If you draft either of them how do you get them on the field? They play the same position as Ed Oliver. Ed played 70% of snaps last year. Even if you are in the camp that says that was too many and it needs to tick down he isn't going below 65%. So how much are you getting Murphy out there for? I love the player. Not sure I see the fit here.

[Westside]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Newton is the best DT in the draft but I love Murphy too. The issue with both is they are 3Ts. If you draft either of them how do you get them on the field? They play the same position as Ed Oliver. Ed played 70% of snaps last year. Even if you are in the camp that says that was too many and it needs to tick down he isn't going below 65%. So how much are you getting Murphy out there for? I love the player. Not sure I see the fit here.

What is your opinion on Robinson? If you already posted it I apologize for not seeing it. He seems like a poor mans Floyd to me. He just looks so small and only 15 tackles in 10 games is a big warning sign to me. I'm really interested in your opinion because I really do value it. May not always agree, but you are mre spot on than not.

[OldTimer1960]

20 minutes ago, Westside said:

I think groot needs to take the next level. He has been good in some games and totally disappears in others.I think he can become the stud we all hope he can be, but I really don't want a situation where he is kinda good until the last year of his contract then leaves to go to another team who could afford him. That would in my eyes become a bad pick.  

I think Rousseau has had ankle problems that have slowed him at times.  When he is right, I think he is good.

Edited March 2 by OldTimer1960

[MiracleAtRich1393]

17 hours ago, gjv said:

Check out Masson Smith LSU. I'm hoping he is available in round 3. I would move up in round 3 to draft him.

Maason Smith in 3rd plus Jordan Jefferson at 1T day on 3, who says no? The poor man's Sweat/Murphy 1T/3T college running mate duo?

[Westside]

Just now, OldTimer1960 said:

I think Rousseau has had ankle problems that have slowed him at times.  When he is right, he is good.

I wasn't aware of that. Fair enough, I definitely like what I see in him. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Westside said:

What is your opinion on Robinson? If you already posted it I apologize for not seeing it. He seems like a poor mans Floyd to me. He just looks so small and only 15 tackles in 10 games is a big warning sign to me. I'm really interested in your opinion because I really do value it. May not always agree, but you are mre spot on than not.

 

I think he has elite get off, the best natural bend round the edge in the class and a better bull rush than you expect to see given he is slightly undersized. He has what I will politely call a "muscular backside" and huge thighs and he generates his power through his lower body so when he wins with that explosive first step he can continue the drive that stops tackles getting back into the down despite not having ideal length. 

 

The negatives..... the production doesn't match the traits and that is a concern. We have been here before with Jayson Oweh out of Penn State and while I think Chop is just all around a better prospect the story on Oweh is a production switch wasn't suddenly flipped when he reached the league. My view on why the production isn't there is that he is technically unrefined. If his sheer athleticism doesn't beat you he doesn't have a counter. He has some lane discipline issues to tidy up in the run game but I think that can come with NFL coaching. The thing that drops him out of first round grade territory on my board is the hand usage. That has always been big for me for pass rushers. Chop needs to get his hands up higher in his rush and be more decisive and violent with them. 

[Westside]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think he has elite get off, the best natural bend round the edge in the class and a better bull rush than you expect to see given he is slightly undersized. He has what I will politely call a "muscular backside" and huge thighs and he generates his power through his lower body so when he wins with that explosive first step he can continue the drive that stops tackles getting back into the down despite not having ideal length. 

 

The negatives..... the production doesn't match the traits and that is a concern. We have been here before with Jayson Oweh out of Penn State and while I think Chop is just all around a better prospect the story on Oweh is a production switch wasn't suddenly flipped when he reached the league. My view on why the production isn't there is that he is technically unrefined. If his sheer athleticism doesn't beat you he doesn't have a counter. He has some lane discipline issues to tidy up in the run game but I think that can come with NFL coaching. The thing that drops him out of first round grade territory on my board is the hand usage. That has always been big for me for pass rushers. Chop needs to get his hands up higher in his rush and be more decisive and violent with them. 

Thank you for your breakdown! Awesome as usual. 👍🏻

[Mat68]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think he has elite get off, the best natural bend round the edge in the class and a better bull rush than you expect to see given he is slightly undersized. He has what I will politely call a "muscular backside" and huge thighs and he generates his power through his lower body so when he wins with that explosive first step he can continue the drive that stops tackles getting back into the down despite not having ideal length. 

 

The negatives..... the production doesn't match the traits and that is a concern. We have been here before with Jayson Oweh out of Penn State and while I think Chop is just all around a better prospect the story on Oweh is a production switch wasn't suddenly flipped when he reached the league. My view on why the production isn't there is that he is technically unrefined. If his sheer athleticism doesn't beat you he doesn't have a counter. He has some lane discipline issues to tidy up in the run game but I think that can come with NFL coaching. The thing that drops him out of first round grade territory on my board is the hand usage. That has always been big for me for pass rushers. Chop needs to get his hands up higher in his rush and be more decisive and violent with them. 

The things you cant teach he excels at.  Things he lacks are teachable besides ideal length.  If he can pick up Vons ghost rush move good night.  I am pretty high team take a WR at 28.  Either Robinson makes me rethink it.  If I go that route I would target a WR in Rd 2 and move up for the one I like best.  
 

If they go Wr at 28 I think a dlineman probably interior will be sticking out at 60.  Then you are taking a developmental or smaller edge later if at all. 

[bills6969]

I wouldn’t mind Sweat in the first.  Vince Wilfork vibes.  We need some beef on dline.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

The things you cant teach he excels at.  Things he lacks are teachable besides ideal length.  

 

Some truth to that and the ceiling is sky high. But there is a LOT to teach. So the floor is also very low.

[Mat68]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Some truth to that and the ceiling is sky high. But there is a LOT to teach. So the floor is also very low.

At 28 I think you look for elite traits.  Im high on him.  If he was a little more polished or had more production he wouldnt be available at 28.    Depending on what wr is available he may or may not be worth the risk.  

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

At 28 I think you look for elite traits.  Im high on him.  If he was a little more polished or had more production he wouldnt be available at 28.    Depending on what wr is available he may or may not be worth the risk.  

 

It would not be a throw something at the tv pick for me but it would be a sharp intake of breath cos it is a roll of the dice. It just so happens than Chop is #28 on my big board right now though and if the NFL draft followed exactly my grading system (I promise you it won't) and the top 27 all went and the Bills picked him I would understand it. 

 

As I keep saying it is the one realistic non-receiver pick that I can see them making at that spot.

[HappyDays]

People are overthinking the 1st round. Defensive linemen like Chop Robinson, Darius Robinson, Sweat, etc. are available at the bottom of the 1st round every single year. WRs like Coleman, Franklin, Legette, etc. are not usually there. The top to bottom strength of the WR class is pushing good WR prospects further down the board than they would usually go. So this year's draft strategy is a no brainer. Take the best WR available in the 1st round because it will almost certainly be the best value pick. And then take another one by round 5.

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It would not be a throw something at the tv pick for me but it would be a sharp intake of breath cos it is a roll of the dice. It just so happens than Chop is #28 on my big board right now though and if the NFL draft followed exactly my grading system (I promise you it won't) and the top 27 all went and the Bills picked him I would understand it. 

 

As I keep saying it is the one realistic non-receiver pick that I can see them making at that spot.

How many 1st round grades do you have this year? You usually mention it but I don't remember reading it this year.

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

How many 1st round grades do you have this year? You usually mention it but I don't remember reading it this year.

 

As of right now 20. 

[Kaenon]

I'll take Darius Robinson.

[Westside]

17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

As of right now 20. 

Ughhhh……that doesn’t sound good. How many WR’s do you have as a first round pick 

[T master]

I personally never liked the Oliver signing although i feel he is a a really good player he is no John Randle which was the example of a under sized D linemen that played much bigger ! Oliver is dependent on another player up front to be able to get there Randle didn't that's the difference .

 

The Bills need more youth up front on the D line someone like Jones moving forward I'm in hopes that BEane paid attention to what BB use to do in New England as far as getting rid of vets that were going to become very high priced players to infuse youth at a better price to keep it going .

 

The draft in todays NFL is the way to keep a team relevant for many years and to keep the cap in a good place at the same time all while having a Josh Allen at the helm .

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, T master said:

I personally never liked the Oliver signing although i feel he is a a really good player he is no John Randle which was the example of a under sized D linemen that played much bigger ! Oliver is dependent on another player up front to be able to get there Randle didn't that's the difference .

 

The Bills need more youth up front on the D line someone like Jones moving forward I'm in hopes that BEane paid attention to what BB use to do in New England as far as getting rid of vets that were going to become very high priced players to infuse youth at a better price to keep it going .

 

The draft in todays NFL is the way to keep a team relevant for many years and to keep the cap in a good place at the same time all while having a Josh Allen at the helm .

Oliver was a very good signing. Beane doesn't need help deciding to draft DL early in the draft. That has been his default proclivity. This year, he'd be a damned fool not to grab Josh Allen premium talent at the WR room first, which is badly needed.

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Westside said:

Ughhhh……that doesn’t sound good. How many WR’s do you have as a first round pick 

 

20 is quite good (and it is 20 plus 4 1st/2nd borderlines). I haven't had that many since 2019 which was a pretty good draft when you look back now. So I think it is a good first round. After that it is good in some spots and less so in others. 

 

I think OL has decent depth. Safety while it lacks blue chippers at the top is pretty deep. Corner is good early and good late (there is a bit of a lacuna in the middle rounds 3 and 4 sort of area). Then obviously WR is very strong and deep. On the flip side.... horrible tight end class beyond the top two, not a lot of true starting running backs and slim pickings at linebacker. There are three studs at edge, then 1 boom or bust guy, then 3 starting level players and then a LOT of projections and question marks. I only have 10 that I'd take before the end of round 4 currently. 

 

On wide receivers in I have 4 and a borderline. But then I have a cluster of them between my 30th best player and my 40th best player. So however it falls I don't expect the Bills to have to reach right down the board to address the position.

Edited March 3 by GunnerBill

[T master]

32 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Oliver was a very good signing. Beane doesn't need help deciding to draft DL early in the draft. That has been his default proclivity. This year, he'd be a damned fool not to grab Josh Allen premium talent at the WR room first, which is badly needed.

 

True he does need premier talent at the WR position but when i listened to Danial Jeremiah on the 1 Bills Live show he said that DL men isn't a very good crop this year meaning there are only a couple with 1st round talent & 1 may slip to the Bills because all or most of the really good WR's will be gone early & that there will be other very good WR's available in the second round .

 

I really don't know i just go by what I've heard from the supposed "Experts" and given what "Could" happen early with QB's & the elite WR's like Marvin Harrison Jr being gone very early then if a WR has a second round evaluation on him but a DT or DL that has a 1st round e v a l shouldn't yo take him ?

 

Then possibly with the extra draft picks move up in the second to get the WR that has a early 2nd round e v a l ? I'm asking because i'm no ththat well versed in all of this i'm just a fan & realize that fact .. 

Edited March 3 by T master

[CNYfan]

12 hours ago, Kaenon said:

I'll take Darius Robinson.

 

I think a bit later, not a 28er

[Dr. Who]

12 minutes ago, T master said:

 

True he does need premier talent at the WR position but when i listened to Danial Jeremiah on the 1 Bills Live show he said that DL men isn't a very good crop this year meaning there are only a couple with 1st round talent & 1 may slip to the Bills because all or most of the really good WR's will be gone early & that there will be other very good WR's available in the second round .

 

I really don't know i just go by what I've heard from the supposed "Experts" and given what "Could" happen early with QB's & the elite WR's like Marvin Harrison Jr being gone very early then if a WR has a second round evaluation on him but a DT or DL that has a 1st round e v a l shouldn't yo take him ?

 

Then possibly with the extra draft picks move up in the second to get the WR that has a early 2nd round e v a l ? I'm asking because i'm no ththat well versed in all of this i'm just a fan & realize that fact .. 

I understand. @HappyDays had a pithy comment that distills my view. The kind of DL you will find at the bottom of the first in this draft is the kind of DL you can find at the bottom of the first in any draft. The kind of WR you will find in this draft at the bottom of the first is going to be someone who in an ordinary draft would go in the top half of the first. If you wait until the second, you're going to get a good player, but you miss out on the true benefit of picking WR in a draft this exceptionally deep at the position. And in my opinion, upgrading WR is not only the right thing to do for Josh Allen, it is the most prudent use of draft capital, and the choice much more likely to have transformative effect on the fortunes of the team.

Edited March 3 by Dr. Who

[OldTimer1960]

On 3/2/2024 at 10:25 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I think he has elite get off, the best natural bend round the edge in the class and a better bull rush than you expect to see given he is slightly undersized. He has what I will politely call a "muscular backside" and huge thighs and he generates his power through his lower body so when he wins with that explosive first step he can continue the drive that stops tackles getting back into the down despite not having ideal length. 

 

The negatives..... the production doesn't match the traits and that is a concern. We have been here before with Jayson Oweh out of Penn State and while I think Chop is just all around a better prospect the story on Oweh is a production switch wasn't suddenly flipped when he reached the league. My view on why the production isn't there is that he is technically unrefined. If his sheer athleticism doesn't beat you he doesn't have a counter. He has some lane discipline issues to tidy up in the run game but I think that can come with NFL coaching. The thing that drops him out of first round grade territory on my board is the hand usage. That has always been big for me for pass rushers. Chop needs to get his hands up higher in his rush and be more decisive and violent with them. 

I am not yet knowledgeable about what proper hand usage looks like in pass rushers, but I was really pleasantly surprised at Chop Robinson.  I watched his games against Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio State.  I thought he was quite disruptive, stouter vs. the run than I expected and generated a good amount of pressure on the pass rush.  I'm not pounding the table for him, but I was really surprised at what I saw after reading the concerns about his pass rush production.

 

Edited March 23 by OldTimer1960