Divisional Playoffs - Chiefs at Bills - Post game thread

[paulmm3]

Diggs is trash. Sherfield is trash. Bass is trash.

[stlbills13]

I know it would have still required a miracle offensively but disappointing our defense couldn't force a 3 and out on the very last series when you knew the Chiefs would run the ball 3 times. Really didn't even put up a fight

[Aimee75]

6 minutes ago, Shortchaz said:

How’d that go? 
 

I guess I should’ve said, imagine if they’ve only won ONE divisional round game. Better? 

No, I think you have outed yourself as to what you are and why you are here. Any Bills fan would KNOW they won a divisional game. That is all I will say on this matter.

[Shortchaz]

4 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

No, I think you have outed yourself as to what you are and why you are here. Any Bills fan would KNOW they won a divisional game. That is all I will say on this matter.

Yep, you got me. I’m not a REAL fan. 
 

the bills did win that one divisional round game 4 years ago, MY BAD 🤣

Edited January 22 by Shortchaz

[Mango]

51 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

No. 

 

Just no. 

 

First off, Shakir was NFL open. He was not wide open. Wide open was Kelce's first TD. it was a tight window that likely works if Allen isn't hit as he's thrown. 

 

But it's the wrong decision for a few reasons. One, he has close to an instant 1st down if he tosses it to Diggs on the crosser. Diggs goes down in bounds it forces KC to use a timeout or the clock winds down to ~1:20. We get 4 more chances at a play like the Shakir throw or Bass gets a little more space to work. 

 

Two, even if the pass works exactly as intended...KC has the ball back with 1:55 and two timeouts. They need a TD, but with our defense giving up at least eight 20+ yard plays? It's a risk I would never take. 

 

 

There is a grey area with realistic expectations for any NFL offense. On one hand, we can all sit back and generally say "an NFL offense should be able to execute 3-4 plays in a row." But at some point you have to draw the line for what is a reasonable expectation. You can't just keep adding on 4 more plays for eternity.

 

The Bills stalled on a 16 play drive. For reference the average drive length this year is 5.88 plays per drive. It is unreasonable and look back and expect any NFL team to execute a 20 play drive with any regularity at all. 

For reference, since 2001 there have only been a total of 8 20+ play TD drives in the playoffs or the regular season. Saying this was "part of the plan" isn't reasonable. 

Edited January 22 by Mango

[Logic]

5 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

There is a grey area with realistic expectations for any NFL offense. On one hand, we can all sit back and generally say "an NFL offense should be able to execute 3-4 plays in a row. But at some point you have to draw the line for what is a reasonable expectation. You can't just keep adding on 4 more plays for eternity.

 

This is where I'm at.

The Chiefs have an excellent red zone defense. There's absolutely NO guarantee that if you extend the drive on a hypothetical Diggs 1st down, that you'll have another shot at a touchdown as open as the Shakir route was.

The Chiefs had also done an excellent job limiting explosive plays by the Bills all night -- 0 plays over 20 yards.

So now, a receiver open in the end zone on an explosive play for a go-ahead touchdown -- how do you pass that up to go for a 4-10 yard completion instead, just based on the ASSUMPTION that you'll still be able to ultimately score a touchdown? 

In a vacuum, you can sit there and say "well, the smart play is to bleed more clock, continue the drive, take it down to almost no time, AND THEN score". But again, there's absolutely no guarantee that you're still going to get that opportunity.

It's just hard for me to fault Allen for taking a shot to an open player in the end zone -- which, make no mistake, would likely have been completed had it not been for Dawkins getting walked into the QB -- for six, when the alternative would've been a mere 1st down and then hoping/assuming that you'll still be able to score a TD.

If an explosive play for a touchdown is there against an elite defense to put you ahead with under two minutes left, you take it. That's where I'm at. Execution is what doomed the play, but I'm okay with the decision itself, because football isn't played in a vacuum.

[Aimee75]

10 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

There is a grey area with realistic expectations for any NFL offense. On one hand, we can all sit back and generally say "an NFL offense should be able to execute 3-4 plays in a row." But at some point you have to draw the line for what is a reasonable expectation. You can't just keep adding on 4 more plays for eternity.

 

The Bills stalled on a 16 play drive. For reference the average drive length this year is 5.88 plays per drive. It is unreasonable and look back and expect any NFL team to execute a 20 play drive with any regularity at all. 

For reference, since 2001 there have only been a total of 8 20+ play TD drives in the playoffs or the regular season. Saying this was "part of the plan" isn't reasonable. 

This.

 

I mean, we were at what, the 30 yard line? We aren't going to be able to kill off that much clock when you are that close. I guess if you keep executing 5 yard runs for a span of 2 minutes. There was a TD for the taking, so I don't think you turn that down. MHO anyway.

[Success]

Man, was Chris Jones annoying at the end.

 

The Chiefs are an easy team to root against.

 

[90sBills]

4 hours ago, BillsfaninCT said:

the goal there is to get a 1st down, like who on the football planet of earth doesn't know the goal is to get a 1st down????  you likely do not win the game if you score a TD with more than 10 seconds on the clock, cause the defense has to be accepted as inadequate so you run the clock out that's all there is to it and they literally did all of the wrong possible things lol.  make me believe it.

 

i don't think we're allowed to post the tv coverage but somebody will post those 2 pass plays and it's inexplicable in the context of what's needed to win the game.

By throwing short to Diggs you’re almost guaranteed a win or, at worst, OT. Throwing it deep there didn’t give them the best odds of winning given how the defense has played. Too much time left. Allen couldn’t help himself. Not blaming him for the loss but he definitely could’ve made a better decision to secure a win. 

[Mango]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

This is where I'm at.

The Chiefs have an excellent red zone defense. There's absolutely NO guarantee that if you extend the drive on a hypothetical Diggs 1st down, that you'll have another shot at a touchdown as open as the Shakir route was.

The Chiefs had also done an excellent job limiting explosive plays by the Bills all night -- 0 plays over 20 yards.

So now, a receiver open in the end zone on an explosive play for a go-ahead touchdown -- how do you pass that up to go for a 4-10 yard completion instead, just based on the ASSUMPTION that you'll still be able to ultimately score a touchdown? 

In a vacuum, you can sit there and say "well, the smart play is to bleed more clock, continue the drive, take it down to almost no time, AND THEN score". But again, there's absolutely no guarantee that you're still going to get that opportunity.

It's just hard for me to fault Allen for taking a shot to an open player in the end zone -- which, make no mistake, would likely have been completed had it not been for Dawkins getting walked into the QB -- for six, when the alternative would've been a mere 1st down and then hoping/assuming that you'll still be able to score a TD.

If an explosive play for a touchdown is there against an elite defense to put you ahead with under two minutes left, you take it. That's where I'm at. Execution is what doomed the play, but I'm okay with the decision itself, because football isn't played in a vacuum.

 

Totally agree, and for years I have pounded the table loudly on this forum that "Josh should have done this and instead of that". 

He was an absolute hero last night and I have zero criticisms for his game yesterday. 

[KOKBILLS]

15 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I am sorry that your mind is boggled.

 

Tight window on long developing play for a TD: high risk high reward

Simple pass to your #1 receiver that reaps multiple benefits in the game spot: Low Risk high reward.

 

what part about this are you not getting? I am not saying that Josh played terrible. He had a good game. But that was a bad decision.

 

A bad decision made worse by the obvious fact that none of his coaches realized what the proper strategy was there... And they had the entire two minute warning time to go over it with Josh and drill it into his head... The endzone routes very likely helped the fact that Diggs was so wide open. And that was the obvious play. In actuality the perfect play there is for Diggs to get it and get 8.5 yds...Stay in bounds...Sneak it on 3rd for the 1st down...

 

We were SO close... I just don't think McD's got it in him...

[Mango]

2 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

This.

 

I mean, we were at what, the 30 yard line? We aren't going to be able to kill off that much clock when you are that close. I guess if you keep executing 5 yard runs for a span of 2 minutes. There was a TD for the taking, so I don't think you turn that down. MHO anyway.

 

And even then, TD for the taking for the lead or risk not getting a TD and get screwed in OT because the defense is a spaghetti strainer. 

 

Take the lead. 

But yes in a perfect/bizarro world, the Bills score a TD as the clock strikes zero. 

[Blackbeard]

25 minutes ago, paulmm3 said:

Diggs is trash. Sherfield is trash. Bass is trash.

Great, well thought out take!

 

 

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

By throwing short to Diggs you’re almost guaranteed a win or, at worst, OT. Throwing it deep there didn’t give them the best odds of winning given how the defense has played. Too much time left. Allen couldn’t help himself. Not blaming him for the loss but he definitely could’ve made a better decision to secure a win. 

How can you say that, though?

The assumption that the Bills would definitely still have been able to score a TD after securing a first down there is a very big assumption, indeed. The Chiefs have an elite red zone defense, and the Bills had only scored once the entire second half. Even the assumption that Bass would still ultimately have made the kick that sends the game to overtime seems like a big one, based on Bass's recent struggles even in-close.

I just think the premise "the short throw for the first down is superior to the touchdown" in that instance is a flawed one, based on assumptions of future success that --- based on the way the season and game had played out -- seem potentially unfounded.
 

[Pokebball]

7 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

This.

 

I mean, we were at what, the 30 yard line? We aren't going to be able to kill off that much clock when you are that close. I guess if you keep executing 5 yard runs for a span of 2 minutes. There was a TD for the taking, so I don't think you turn that down. MHO anyway.

Exactly. A bird in the hand.

 

Less risk to be up by 4 than 3 with two minutes left.

 

The TD throw was wide open and you take that when you have it.

[Aussie Joe]

18 minutes ago, Logic said:

I feel...mostly exhausted and sad today. Not devastated/heartbroken like in the past, just....ugh. Resigned. Disappointed.

I think the reason is that there wasn't any blown call, fluke play, or baffling coaching decision to point to for the loss (yes, the fake punt was dumb, but it's not what cost the Bills the game. It led to no KC points and Bills got the ball back). Instead, the loss happened due to failures in all three phases -- offense, defense, and special teams.

-- The offense was mostly great, but it didn't hit a single explosive (20+ yard) play, while KC had 8. At the end, when it mattered most, they couldn't seal the deal.

-- The defense was carved up. Mahomes was the hot knife, and our defense was the butter. Yes, it was ridiculously injury depleted. Yes, the specific injuries -- Bernard and Rapp, out middle of the field defenders -- were particularly devastating against an offense like KC that eats up the middle of the field. Whatever reason you want to give, our defense offered basically no resistance all game.

-- The special teams was bad the whole way through, culminating in a missed field goal.

As for coaching, my only nits to pick would be that the defense was slow to adjust (I'm not sure how much they could've done anyway, when your defensive signal caller is out and you're starting a guy off the couch, it really limits how complex you can make your defense), and the fake punt was dumb. For once, I DON'T think coaching was the primary reason for the loss. 

Failures in execution are what doomed us. Not many, but enough of them in key moments -- Diggs' dropped pass, Sherfield's dropped pass, Dawkins getting walked into Allen, Bass's miss -- to spell defeat for the Bills.

I think I'm just exhausted because I don't have an easy fix or an easy recipe to overcome this hurdle we can't seem to overcome. Mid-season I said that I wanted McDermott gone. Then he got considerably better at coaching. Started being more aggressive on 4th downs (to the point that he routinely goes for it on 4th on his own side of the field, even early in games), started coaching more aggressive and disguised defense, started being a bit looser on the sideline and in the locker room...in short, he seemed to make a concerted effort to improve on a lot of the gripes everyone had about him. He then coached six straight wins to get to the divisional round. 

While we can argue until we're blue in the face over whether McDermott should be replaced or not, the fact is that it's NOT happening this offseason. So what do the Bills do? Where do we go from here? They'll no doubt draft some exciting young players, sign a guy or two, lose a guy or two. They'll line up again next season top 10 or top 5 in Super Bowl odds. They'll probably win the AFC East again. But then what? 

I'm back to feeling like I felt last offesason: Nothing really matters until January. It's all just noise until the divisional round comes. And what should make me feel this morning like the Bills will have a better chance of clearing that hurdle next season? 

I'm just...exhausted. Sad, disappointed, dejected. Exhausted. 

I can relate big time to this post ….

 

Gotta climb the mountain again next season… they probably win the division again, mainly because Josh Allen and lesser division foes …but as you say… then what happens when they have to play the Chiefs/Ravens/or even

Bengals ?
 

What will be different… The rookie WR at Pick 28 going  to be a difference maker in his first playoffs? Is Milano being back after a terrible injury going to be the answer on D? Is McD gunna manage the game better?

 

We don’t know the answers now …but I hope the team is more confident than me of a different outcome …

 

 

[Logic]

5 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

We were SO close... I just don't think McD's got it in him...

I'm curious: if Dawkins holds his ground against Jones and Allen hits Shakir for six on that play, are you still saying it was a bad decision? 

[KOKBILLS]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'm curious: if Dawkins holds his ground against Jones and Allen hits Shakir for six on that play, are you still saying it was a bad decision? 

 

Yep.. 100%... How do you think the game is going to end with Mahomes against that MASH unit with 1:50 left and 2 timeouts? 

 

And besides... He didn't hold his ground because it was a 30 plus yard route. It could have been worse if Jones beats him clean so...

 

I'm sure you may believe that this is hindsight thinking. But believe me it's not. I was preaching it during the two minute warning and I have witnesses... 

[cgg716]

13 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

A bad decision made worse by the obvious fact that none of his coaches realized what the proper strategy was there... And they had the entire two minute warning time to go over it with Josh and drill it into his head... The endzone routes very likely helped the fact that Diggs was so wide open. And that was the obvious play. In actuality the perfect play there is for Diggs to get it and get 8.5 yds...Stay in bounds...Sneak it on 3rd for the 1st down...

 

We were SO close... I just don't think McD's got it in him...

This is an absolutely ABSURD take 

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Least enjoyable Bills season of my lifetime.

 

Simply because there is nothing sadder to watch than wasted talent.

 

This team lost 5 games to teams that didn't make the playoffs.  

 

It's why they were forced to win 9 de facto and actual playoff games........while having left their best football behind in late September........and taking on casualties from the overexposure and wear and tear at the end as a result of careless play in the first 3 months of the season.

 

It was a "team" effort for disappointment.    It was contagious as well.   With the exception of a few young players who consistently performed to expectation or above in Bernard, Shakir and Kincaid, everyone seemed to do their part.

 

Appropriately,  they didn't earn many individual accolades because all of their stars had more bad games than you can expect and still be the top team in your conference.  And until you can be the top regular season team in the AFC........you don't have any right to expect to be the top team in the league for the first time in your existence.

 

The good news is that they probably won't have as much talent and opportunity to waste next season.    That should make them more likable, if nothing else.  This team was really unlikable.   It culminated last night with Gabe Davis screaming at the fans behind the Bills bench and being serenaded "goodbye" by sections 133 and 134.