Cover 1 breakdown of the Dorsey offense

[DuckyBoys]

they kept Dorsey on to run what McDermott is comfortable with will not put his fragile defense into trouble  Not sure what exactly Sean is thinking  If you dont want Josh doing too much then expend some resources so you can run a full offense  Bills cant run , for sure have no short yardage run game without using Allen as a battering ram  Cant run screens.  Do not have someone to stretch the field vertically  Your asking your qb to somehow have long drives without the benefit of a solid run  game and not giving him the tools to be explosive  Its the same crap every week  Hey Josh be special and dont f it up

[HomeskillitMoorman]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You have a clear bias towards McD.  If gas prices go up its like you will blame McD for that too.

 

McD does not have the input on the offense you think he does.  If you spent time watching actual interviews with McD, Beane, Dorsey, Daboll, etc over the past few years you would know that.  

 

Yes, Dorsey is a coach on his staff.  But firing a coordinator in season is not something teams looking to compete for championships take lightly, especially ones who have had some success already.  They will look at continuity more than change there and try and fix the issues before making a drastic move.

 

Now, I personally think Dorsey should be fired, but I also think the odds of them doing it now are low and if there was going to be an in season change it might come the week before our bye to give whoever is taking over time to settle in.  

 

So you can keep raging about McD all you want, but that doesn't mean you are correct about how much involvement he has on the offensive scheme.  The offense is Dorseys no matter how much you want to absolve him so you can blame the guy you are more out for in McD.  

 

You think McD being uninvolved in the offense is an excuse, I don't. That's what this comes down to. He's the HEAD COACH, he's not the defensive coordinator. The offense IS also his problem whether he is involved or he has the wrong people running it. That's what you don't seem to understand. You think McD should be completely absolved for whatever happens on that side of the ball. It's like you don't understand what a Head Coach is. 

 

Also, that very idea that McD should have no clue whatsoever on what's happening on offense is flawed in it of itself. You think they go into a game and he's just totally surprised but what the offense is doing? That he has no idea what the gameplan is or what they're working on? That's a huge problem if that's the case. And if he does know and has done absolutely nothing to influence any kind of change, that's his fault too. It all comes back to the Head Coach, that's why they are the Head Coach. 

 

And Dorsey was here last year, McD had a chance to evaluate him. He brought him back. Again, on McD. All of it is. 

 

I would love for you to explain how I want Dorsey "absolved" when I'm calling for both to be fired. I also wanted Dorsey out after last year. 

 

I don't have a bias here, you do. You're willing to bend and twist whatever it takes to hold McDermott unaccountable. The guy hasn't put in any work to improve his shortcomings for over 6 years now and still makes the same exact mistakes and is now completely in over his head when his roster and QB aren't bailing him out anymore. 

 

Do you think as a complete team that we're getting better and climbing upwards?

[GoBills808]

16 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Nah bro.  EPA says this offense is first tier.  So what if we are 25th in the league in our drives resulting in points.  Football is all about stalling out drives at midfield.

Where are you getting this info? PFR has our offense 5th in % of drives ending in a score and 4th in points/drive

[Jauronimo]

13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Where are you getting this info? PFR has our offense 5th in % of drives ending in a score and 4th in points/drive

 

 

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

 

 

We have 93 total offensive drives

 

18 pass TDs and 10 rush TDs

Bass is 12/15 on FGs

 

We score 18+10+12=40 drives out of 93 right

 

and 40/93≠31.4%

[Jauronimo]

 

 

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

We have 93 total offensive drives

 

18 pass TDs and 10 rush TDs

Bass is 12/15 on FGs

 

We score 18+10+12=40 drives out of 93 right

 

and 40/93≠31.4%

Probably because you are omitting key phrases like "since the Bills skid started against the Jags".  Like I have been telling you, success against Washington, Vegas and Miami was fun but it means nothing going into week 10.

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

 

 

Probably because you are omitting key phrases like "since the Bills skid started against the Jags".  Like I have been telling you, success against Washington, Vegas and Miami was fun but it means nothing going into week 10.

I guess I would want to see how they define 'garbage time' because I wouldn't consider many of the games we've played weeks 5-9 having much garbage time

Oh nm that's just the EPA calculator I got it

[DrDawkinstein]

54 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You have a clear bias towards McD.  If gas prices go up its like you will blame McD for that too.

 

McD does not have the input on the offense you think he does.  If you spent time watching actual interviews with McD, Beane, Dorsey, Daboll, etc over the past few years you would know that.  

 

Yes, Dorsey is a coach on his staff.  But firing a coordinator in season is not something teams looking to compete for championships take lightly, especially ones who have had some success already.  They will look at continuity more than change there and try and fix the issues before making a drastic move.

 

Now, I personally think Dorsey should be fired, but I also think the odds of them doing it now are low and if there was going to be an in season change it might come the week before our bye to give whoever is taking over time to settle in.  

 

So you can keep raging about McD all you want, but that doesn't mean you are correct about how much involvement he has on the offensive scheme.  The offense is Dorseys no matter how much you want to absolve him so you can blame the guy you are more out for in McD.  

 

You're making an awfully good argument for the folks in the "fire McD" camp.

 

He's supposed to be a Head Coach. Not just a DC. If he doesnt have input on the Offense, then he shouldnt be getting paid like a HC. And we should find a HC who can handle ALL the responsibilities of the job.

[Jauronimo]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I guess I would want to see how they define 'garbage time' because I wouldn't consider many of the games we've played weeks 5-9 having much garbage time

Oh nm that's just the EPA calculator I got it

 

Garbage time defined in the comments.

 

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by Jauronimo

[GoBills808]

Just now, Jauronimo said:

 

Had to got into the comments to find but this is how garbage time was defined.

 

 

🤙I just edited that post once I saw that chart

 

The EPA calculator is open source here

https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/

 

You can play around w them yourself 

 

FYI he set the garbage time filter to where Bills offensive EPA is worst😂😂

[Jauronimo]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

🤙I just edited that post once I saw that chart

 

The EPA calculator is open source here

https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/

 

You can play around w them yourself 

 

FYI he set the garbage time filter to where Bills offensive EPA is worst😂😂

But is the methodology flawed? This offense is poor until its basically too late.  They should be in the 2 minute drill all game.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Jauronimo said:

But is the methodology flawed? This offense is poor until its basically too late.  They should be in the 2 minute drill all game.

 yes tbh

 

It excludes basically the entire second half of the Bengals game

 

In London it would exclude almost everything beyond when the score was 11-7 w 9mins left

[Bob Jones]

One thing I saw after watching this is that the Bengals were not covering Cook...at all...coming out of the backfield after he made his chip blocks. I guess they would have adjusted, but JA really should have been throwing to him early on, like on the INT play, no one was even close to Cook.

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Mango said:

I agree with some of this. But one thing . I think defenses do respect the big play. They don’t respect anything else. Often they’ll cheat over to Diggs/Davis and give an extra cushion to Cook, Kincaid, Shakir. If we want to open up the rest of the offense we have to beat the shirt out of teams by making them pay for that until they shift. 
 

You make reference to defense knowing the play. This wasn’t a game where nobody was open. This was a game where we didn’t throw to the open guy. 
 

I think defenses don’t adjust shallow because they know we’ll get away from it before they have to adjust. 
 

To your points I do get frustrated with Dorsey that when we find something that works we get away from it, whether it be running, play action, or playing behind center. But along the same lines, we have to take the pass plus that are there. 

 

Defenses don't adjust shallow because they don't give a crap about the shallow.  We could take it all game long and they wouldn't adjust because it doesn't matter.  When you throw for 2-3 yards a pop, it only takes one mistake to kill the drive. Those drives are too long to consistently be perfect.   This is the backbone of what McD has done on defense since he has gotten here.  It is nothing new.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Scott7975

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

 

You think McD being uninvolved in the offense is an excuse, I don't. That's what this comes down to. He's the HEAD COACH, he's not the defensive coordinator. The offense IS also his problem whether he is involved or he has the wrong people running it. That's what you don't seem to understand. You think McD should be completely absolved for whatever happens on that side of the ball. It's like you don't understand what a Head Coach is. 

 

Also, that very idea that McD should have no clue whatsoever on what's happening on offense is flawed in it of itself. You think they go into a game and he's just totally surprised but what the offense is doing? That he has no idea what the gameplan is or what they're working on? That's a huge problem if that's the case. And if he does know and has done absolutely nothing to influence any kind of change, that's his fault too. It all comes back to the Head Coach, that's why they are the Head Coach. 

 

And Dorsey was here last year, McD had a chance to evaluate him. He brought him back. Again, on McD. All of it is. 

 

I would love for you to explain how I want Dorsey "absolved" when I'm calling for both to be fired. I also wanted Dorsey out after last year. 

 

I don't have a bias here, you do. You're willing to bend and twist whatever it takes to hold McDermott unaccountable. The guy hasn't put in any work to improve his shortcomings for over 6 years now and still makes the same exact mistakes and is now completely in over his head when his roster and QB aren't bailing him out anymore. 

 

Do you think as a complete team that we're getting better and climbing upwards?

 

Im not making any excuses for McD.  I am simply stating Dorsey is making the offensive decisions.  People keep falsely calling this McD's offense, McD wants to be conservative, etc etc.  All of it is incorrect. 

 

You want to be pissed at McD, which you clearly are, then nothing wrong with that.  But people need to separate facts from anger because the facts are that the offense out there on Sunday is Dorseys design, his scheme, his play calling.  He is the big problem on offense.  

 

I get the whole low hanging fruity blanket statements of "Well McD is the HC, so it all falls on him"...well that is all fine and dandy, but its also not so cut and dry as if McD is in the offensive meetings helping design the offense and gameplan.  

 

McD can tell Dorsey what he wants all day long, but its up to Dorsey to design and execute that on gamedays, not McD.  So be pissed at McD for not firing Dorsey yet, I am too.  But to keep ranting on a message board that it is McD that needs to fix the offense or that the offense is a product of him is just not based in the reality of the situation. 

 

Like I said before...the people who have been anti-McD are making this more about him to feed that bias of wanting him gone, but the reality is Dorsey is the root problem on game day of why our offense is sputtering.  But hey, if you want to be mad at McD for not firing Dorsey yet, fair game.

52 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

You're making an awfully good argument for the folks in the "fire McD" camp.

 

He's supposed to be a Head Coach. Not just a DC. If he doesnt have input on the Offense, then he shouldnt be getting paid like a HC. And we should find a HC who can handle ALL the responsibilities of the job.

 

I didn't say he has no input, I mean both Dorsey and McD have said he does.  I am saying he doesn't have the input some people think.  He isn't, even as HC, in the offensive meetings scheming plays and game plans.  

[Scott7975]

40 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 yes tbh

 

It excludes basically the entire second half of the Bengals game

 

In London it would exclude almost everything beyond when the score was 11-7 w 9mins left

 

Ok but does that matter when we scored 6 points and 18 points in a loss those two games?  If you want EPA to show that the offense was good those two games then you are just looking for reasons to make the offense look good when it wasn't.  I watched those two games and the offense was terrible.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

59 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:

One thing I saw after watching this is that the Bengals were not covering Cook...at all...coming out of the backfield after he made his chip blocks. I guess they would have adjusted, but JA really should have been throwing to him early on, like on the INT play, no one was even close to Cook.

 

If we can't establish a run game at the LOS... this is the same thing.  You have a very high completion likelihood (we'll say... 85%), and he has space.  One missed tackle and that short throw can become 10-15 yards.  Even with a solid tackle he's getting 4-6 yards.  These are the short completions that create space for someone to get behind the backers and in front of the safeties.

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

 yes tbh

 

It excludes basically the entire second half of the Bengals game

 

In London it would exclude almost everything beyond when the score was 11-7 w 9mins left

Do you honestly believe this offense is as good as EPA suggests?  How confident are you that the leagues top EPA offense will score on any given drive?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Look at Dallas' production though - its the same as us - Lamb by a mile, and then Ferguson is the next most productive player. 

 

Think Dallas misses an Amari Cooper caliber WR in these big games? 

 

Our talent isn't that bad...

 

Diggs is Top 5 in the league and Allen targets him all the time. Should he target him even more? 

 

Kincaid is still be used on underneath routes, but the volume has increased. He looks shifty though. 

 

Outside of that .... Davis, is he getting faster? Is he becoming a better route runner? Is he showing anything that he hasn't shown in 2020, 2021 or 2022? 

Harty - Our coaching staff doesn't trust him, he has 113 yards so far - 12 yards/game. 9 snaps the last two games. 

 

Sherfield -Less than 1,000 career receiving yards. 

 

Shakir - Took him 1.5 years to earn trust. 

 

Knox - Completely invisible this season. 

 

Morris/Shorter/Isabella - ?????????

 

They did trade for cooks, assuming he'd have a role and he doesn't... 

 

We just don't do a good job stressing the defense and moving people, and making them think.  We're letting them dictate coverages and adjusting around it.  Our cover 2 beaters are basic but they don't seem to stress the safeties much at all.  We rarely get completions going north, its always side to side or coming back to the ball.  Rarely stretch the linebackers north south unless its play action, other than that we just try and find windows in the zone east west.  

 

It's a complicated short passing offense... that results in little to no YAC, no chunk plays, and too many checks and pre-snap thought.  You rely on QB and pass catcher to make the right read every time.  You go to 3x1 to try and stress that cover 2, but then run WR screens.  Running backs are an after thought and are only used as checkdowns.  Rarely do we attack with vertical routes.  It's just so frustrating to watch.  

[Scott7975]

I am going to put my basic theory on whats going on with this offense. This offensive design is to read pre snap what the coverage is. That determines what side of the field Josh looks at. The leverage of the dbs dictates what route the receivers run. This is why Josh doesnt see the open guy on the still shot image people love to post and say "look, he's open!!" and why this offense always looks so disjointed.  Maybe not all the time but at least some of the time.  Josh isn't looking 1-2-3-4-(5). Its really more like 1-2 oh crap what now?  Probably why it may also seem he is "locked on" to a guy.

 

There is no gameplan really specific to an opponent. There is no cat and mouse going on during the game.  Dorsey calls a play and they line up. If in this coverage read that side of the field.  If in that coverage read this side of the field.  This is why we get comments like "he only runs two routes" from the opposing players.  Teams that disguise their coverage well makes you read the wrong thing. That slows down the decision making.  Teams have enough film of this now to know exactly where the players are going and where the reads are going to be.  There may be guys open but they probably were not part of the reads based on the coverage Josh seen presnap. 

 

This may be highly efficient from a play perspective because it technically should have the coverage beat no matter what play the defense is running as the offense should always have an out.  However, it takes extreme execution on every single play from start to finish. The presnap read has to be correct.  If it isn't then it has to be identified immediately.  Only half the receivers are reads so they have to get open. It's more difficult for them to get open because the defense knows what the primary reads are so they toughen up their coverage to those reads post snap. The other options aren't even looked at except when Josh is in hero mode after the play has broken down. It also limits the offensive routes. The D knows where the players are going because they know what routes are being run based on their own coverage call. This is extremely limiting as really only half the receivers are ever being considered. It also means the receiver and the QB both have to always read things the same way. It puts the entire weight of the game on Josh shoulders and none of it on the coordinator having a good gameplan and being good at chess.  No plays are run to set up future plays.  

 

Just a theory. I obviously don't know ***** about football like some others around here but I do have a really good mind for troubleshooting as thats what I did all my life.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Scott7975