We're overhyping the Bengals

[SoonerBillsFan]

On 11/1/2023 at 10:39 AM, Big Blitz said:

 

So?  It doesn’t matter on November 5th.  
 

If we leave Sunday night 5-4 with 8 games to play we will need to go 5-3 to get in.  
 

Games I’m fairly confident we win:

Denver

Jets 

Dallas 

Patriots 

Toss ups:

Miami

KC 

Chargers

 

Loss:

Philly 

 

 

And I’m pretty confident a 9-8 team just might get in this season.  

With how we have played the last 4 weeks, I don't see any games as easy wins.   Not saying we can't win them all,I'm just saying I don't think any team is an easy win for us unless we start stepping up consistently 

[tomur67]

If the Bills can put up 48 points on the Phins, they are surely capable of doing the same to the Bengals.    Don't automatically count the Bills out.

[Billsfan1972]

Every Monday night loss has an * imo.

 

Sunday comes down to and you know what I will say...... McD being aggressive on offence and showing us some good schemes on defence.

 

But again only one game and still will be positive about the Bills after.

[MasterStrategist]

Cincy defense is like Miami, but better coached.  Yards and points to be had, just need to not turn it over/take sacks.

 

On defense, watch the Ravens and Steelers play them. It's a physical/aggressive brand.  We need to bring that intensity and aggression, keep them from getting a run game going by bringing pressure on early downs.  Burrow wants his quick/intermediate passes. Rather we force them into 50/50 fade passes, by jamming/taking away underneath.

[dave mcbride]

On 11/1/2023 at 9:18 PM, Steptide said:

Here's the thing. Bengals look better yes. BUT, they beat a bad Cardinals team, a mediocre Seahawks team (by 4 points) and a 49ers team who I believe is In a slump. The 9ers win is their most impressive, but Purdy has been kinda lousy lately, and Im not quite sure the Bengals beat the 9ers at their best. Having said that, the Bengals are a good team, and the bills having lost to the Patriots and jets doesn't give me a huge amount of confidence, but this is a game the bills should win if they have super bowl aspirations 

My big concern is that historically Burrow has SHREDDED zone defenses. His issues have come against teams with good man cover guys/schemes (Browns, Ravens), and the Bills not only don't play much man, they can't given their JAG boundary CBs.  I expect he'll pick the Bills secondary apart. Maybe the Bills score 40; who knows. They're capable of it, and the offensive line is leagues better than it was last year. Hard to pick against Cincy in this one, though.

[Caesar]

On 11/1/2023 at 2:00 AM, Dr.Sack said:

I’m optimistic based on a few stats: 

 

The Bunguls have run for only 553 yards and 2 TDs all year, while giving up 970 and 6 TDs.

 

The Bengals are 0-3 when giving up 24 or more points. 

Buffalo is 4-1 when scoring 24 or more points. 

 

The Bills are 0-3 when running under 100 yards. 
 

The Bengals are 3-3 when running under 100 yards. The Bengals have only posted 1 100+ yard running game.

 

The Bengals replaced TE Hayden Hurst with an absolute dud, Irv Smith Jr. Hurst concussed Taron Johnson in the cancelled game and hurdled our defense in the playoff game. 

The Bengals don’t have RB Perrine.

 

Allen has +10 days rest, Burrow is rounding into form but has yet to be really challenged and chased around the pocket. I expect McDermott will play tighter coverages and challenge Burrow early and often. 

 

Using stats doesnt really tell the true story, we couldnt run 50% of our offense.

Good point on Hurst.  Bengals TE room is worse than an overfilled outhouse.  It is painful.

Good point on Perine.  We miss him badly.

"Burrow is rounding into form but has yet to be really challenged and chased around the pocket."
Burrow has been chased by Myles Garrett, Za'Darius Smith, RoQuan Smith & the Ravens D, Aaron Donald, Jeff Simmons, Denico Autry, Bobby Wagner, Arik Armstead, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa.  With all do respect, the Bills may get to Burrow a bunch, but on paper the front 7 isnt better than what Burrow has faced thus far.

 

[Caesar]

On 11/1/2023 at 10:31 AM, jletha said:

 

 

Maybe the SF game was the spark they needed and they will go on to dominate the rest of the way. But they also showed flashes of being "back" against the Ravens and Cardinals and then reverted to bad play again. Im just not ready to say theyve righted the ship based on one game. Many teams can ball out for one game and then play bad the next. Look at us against Miami and then what followed.

The Bengals offense wasnt remotely close vs the Ravens or the Cardinals.  The 49ers game was the 1st in which Burrow looked healthy and they actually took snaps under center and opened up the playbook.  

I absolutely agree with this; " Im just not ready to say they've righted the ship based on one game."  The Bills will be a very tough test to see if we have truly turned the corner.

[Alphadawg7]

On 10/31/2023 at 4:51 PM, Success said:

Great team, and they could absolutely beat us on Sunday.

 

But what's the deal?  Reading this board, we seem to have little to no chance.  If I just went by the posts here, I'd think Cincy was the top team in the league, and unstoppable.

 

The Bills have lost as many games as the Bengals.  Our losses were all close. Basically down to a play or 2.  The Bengals have been absolutely blown out - twice. Against the Browns and Titans; not exactly world beaters.

 

"Burrow's calf was hurt" seems to be the main excuse.  Kind of like JA's UCL the entire 2nd half of the 2022 season, or his shoulder much of this season.  Excuses are just that.  That team has gotten blown out - twice.

 

This is as even a match of good teams as there is in the NFL.  Let's take a break on the doom talk.  Their struggles have been very similar to ours this year.  This should be a great game.

 

 

 

I love your optimism...I do.  But the recent work of both teams tell different stories.  Bengals have now won 4 of their last 5 and are getting their groove back offensively and just spanked a much better defense right now for SF last week.  Buffalo is 2-2 over its last 4 games and only averaging a measely 20.75 ppg over that span despite facing an easy schedule of Jags, Giants, Pats, and Bucs.   

 

Our defense is at the bottom of the league since the injuries, so if the Bengals are putting up 31 on the Niners then the expectation is that they could and should put up over 30 on us.  Given our offense has not scored more than 25 points in 4 weeks despite facing easier defenses than the Bengals, there is a reason to be concerned heading into this game of our offense being able to keep up.  

 

Then you add in how poorly we looked against them in the Hamlin partial game and how poorly we played at home in the playoffs, and the expectations and confidence is gong to be low heading into this week. 

 

On 11/1/2023 at 6:31 PM, Success said:

 

Re: the bolded - are you sure we're reading the same posts on this board?

 

I'd say close to half the posts I've seen have either said we have no chance at all, or will need everything to go our way to eek out a win.

 

This is a good match-up, of good & pretty evenly matched teams.  I'd give Cincy an edge as the home team coming off a big win, but that's about it.

 

 

Except statistically we are not the last 4 weeks evenly matched.  That is the issue.  Season totals mean nothing, its how the 2 teams are playing.  And we have been in the toilet BOTH offensively and defensively since the Miami game.  Defense because of injuries and offense because it still has no identity or consistency.  

 

Can we win...of course.  Coming into the game though, I think the Bengals are playing better football right now than we have so my confidence in this game is much lower than it was when we say played Miami.  

Edited November 3, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Caesar]

On 11/1/2023 at 12:41 PM, PBF81 said:

 

I just went over their entire starting D lineup.  Their D doesn't seem to be any better than ours based on the talent that's starting on Sunday.  

 

Their front-7 is almost entirely 3rd-round draft picks too.  I believe that among the entire starting 11 there was only one Pro-Bowl appearance.  

 

Their top guys in their front-7 have 15 total sacks.  Henrickson (8), Hubbard (4), and Hill (3).  

Our top guys in our front-7 have 19.5 total sacks.  Floyd (6.5), AJE (5), Oliver (5), and Groot (3).  

 

TFLs, Cincy 20.  Hendrickson (8), Hubbard, Pratt, and Wilson 4 each.  

Us, 31.  Oliver (10), Groot (6), Bernard (6), AJE (5), Floyd (4).  

 

QB Hits, Cincy 39.  Hubbard (12), Hendrickson (11), Hill (11), Reader (5).  

Us, 35.  Floyd (12), Oliver (10), Groot (7), AJE (6).  

 

They don't seem to have any ringers in their secondary either and seems to be notably worse than ours.  

 

Just a little perspective for everyone that's bawling about how the season's over "because our D sucks."  

 

Speaking for myself, I have very little faith that we'll win @ Philly, which if we don't, makes this pretty much a must-win game.  I agree with your 3-1/2-2/1-3 assessment over the next four games.  Zach Taylor has outcoached McD the last three times we've met, which includes the beginning of the Hamlin game.  The first time was with Dalton and a bunch of JAGS at WR besides Boyd, whose hardly prolific.  Granted, we had Brown, Beasley, Jones, and McKenzie, but that was better than Boyd and three young WRs that aren't even in the league anymore, two not since '21.  

 

At this point the heat is appropriately beginning to befall McD.  We'll see what he has up his sleeve, if anything, for SNF, Prime Time.  It'll be on display for the world.  I'm hopeful, but I wouldn't bet on us coming out on top.  This team is ridiculously mystifying in its ability to underachieve.  

 

 

You are correct in that the Bengals D does not have many accolades, that said:
 

Hendrickson has the most QB pressures in the last few seasons, (unsure of the numbers), but it's up there.
Hubbard was listed as one of, if not the top, run stopping DE the last 2 years.
DJ Reader is without a doubt one of the best NGs in the league, especially at run stopping.
Wilson and Pratt are becoming an upper tier LB duo.
Hilton is a top nickel corner.
Our young CBs have played very well, Awuzie is still slow off the ACL.
Hill has been really good at safety.  Scott not so much, a rookie has been getting snaps.

This D gives up yards but can be stingy when it comes to points. 
 

[Caesar]

On 11/1/2023 at 8:56 AM, Billsfan1972 said:

Was he dinged up vs. Seattle too?  He was not very good that game.

Yes he was.  We could not, and did not, run any plays under center, he still couldnt move much at all, our playbook was so limited.  We are all astounded (and annoyed) at how much a stupid calf strain can impact a QB, especially after watching Allen throw 80 yarders with his cannon ripped up on the inside last year. 

[Dr.Sack]

41 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Using stats doesnt really tell the true story, we couldnt run 50% of our offense.

Good point on Hurst.  Bengals TE room is worse than an overfilled outhouse.  It is painful.

Good point on Perine.  We miss him badly.

"Burrow is rounding into form but has yet to be really challenged and chased around the pocket."
Burrow has been chased by Myles Garrett, Za'Darius Smith, RoQuan Smith & the Ravens D, Aaron Donald, Jeff Simmons, Denico Autry, Bobby Wagner, Arik Armstead, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa.  With all do respect, the Bills may get to Burrow a bunch, but on paper the front 7 isnt better than what Burrow has faced thus far.

 

Our front 4 is better as collective than any front you have faced. While there is no singular dominator our pass rush can come from any one on the edge or interior. I expect McDermott will also play small ball and move Poyer into the box to bring more exotic looks for Burrown and send blitzers to make Burrow get the ball out. I consider the unpredictability of our defense and where pressure will come from as a major X-factor. 

[SWATeam]

2 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Yes he was.  We could not, and did not, run any plays under center, he still couldnt move much at all, our playbook was so limited.  We are all astounded (and annoyed) at how much a stupid calf strain can impact a QB, especially after watching Allen throw 80 yarders with his cannon ripped up on the inside last year. 

For finally being healthy your boy did not seem to play very smart last week.  Almost like he was hunting for a new injury.

[Dillenger4]

5 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Yes he was.  We could not, and did not, run any plays under center, he still couldnt move much at all, our playbook was so limited.  We are all astounded (and annoyed) at how much a stupid calf strain can impact a QB, especially after watching Allen throw 80 yarders with his cannon ripped up on the inside last year. 

That's football pinto. Injuries happen. We are decimated with injuries but that's what happens. No excure. He either can play or not. If he played, which he did, and looked crapppy, which he did - that's on him. Now it's on you too. Just get lost pinto!

3 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

For finally being healthy your boy did not seem to play very smart last week.  Almost like he was hunting for a new injury.

wait till sunday night! Burrow in deep trouble. He hasn't faced a rush like ours yet. Gonna be a pounding like none other. Can't wait!

[Caesar]

2 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Our front 4 is better as collective than any front you have faced. While there is no singular dominator our pass rush can come from any one on the edge or interior. I expect McDermott will also play small ball and move Poyer into the box to bring more exotic looks for Burrown and send blitzers to make Burrow get the ball out. I consider the unpredictability of our defense and where pressure will come from as a major X-factor. 

 

Maybe... Im not sure how many outside of Buffalo would agree with this, especially with DaQuan being out.   

I wouldnt be surprised if the Bengals welcomed Poyer in the box, they may run right at him.  Although I admit I prefer your LBs instead, as Burrow could likely do way more damage to them. 

2 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

That's football pinto. Injuries happen. We are decimated with injuries but that's what happens. No excure. He either can play or not. If he played, which he did, and looked crapppy, which he did - that's on him. Now it's on you too. Just get lost pinto!

wait till sunday night! Burrow in deep trouble. He hasn't faced a rush like ours yet. Gonna be a pounding like none other. Can't wait!

"He hasn't faced a rush like ours yet."
Myles Garrett
Za'Darius Smith
RoQuan Smith
Ravens D
Aaron Donald
Jeff Simmons
Denico Autry
Bobby Wagner
Arik Armstead
Fred Warner
Nick Bosa.

He has faced quality defenders.  You may be right though, that defense could destroy the Bengals.....

[Billsfan1972]

Caesar's a fan, what's the big deal?  Has some good points too.  At the end of the day it will be played out on the field.

 

What amazes me is that the Bills & Bengals have played 5.25 quarters in the last 4 years and the Bengals are coming off a very good game against a team that has now lost 3 in a row and the narrative has flipped.

 

Actually I'm feeling better now thinking back to the playoffs and remembering, that yep, I blamed McD and coaching and forgetting just how slick the field was, Isaiah's comments that puts the blame on the game plan, and yep emotionally maybe the Bills were drained.

 

Conversely I have minimal confidence in the Bills Defense, but just a stop or two and a FG, not a TD and I'll then roll the dice with Josh. 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Billsfan1972

[Dillenger4]

2 minutes ago, Caesar said:

 

Maybe... Im not sure how many outside of Buffalo would agree with this, especially with DaQuan being out.   

I wouldnt be surprised if the Bengals welcomed Poyer in the box, they may run right at him.  Although I admit I prefer your LBs instead, as Burrow could likely do way more damage to them. 

"He hasn't faced a rush like ours yet."
Myles Garrett
Za'Darius Smith
RoQuan Smith
Ravens D
Aaron Donald
Jeff Simmons
Denico Autry
Bobby Wagner
Arik Armstead
Fred Warner
Nick Bosa.

He has faced quality defenders.  You may be right though, that defense could destroy the Bengals.....

That is a good list - I'll give you that. But put our front 4 together as one unit and that's the key. We will see. Naming one-offs is fine but you just watch Sunday. Then again... who knows. Anything can happen. AND IT WILL!!!!! crush

[Caesar]

8 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

For finally being healthy your boy did not seem to play very smart last week.  Almost like he was hunting for a new injury.

 

Are you referring to his scrambling?

With all due respect, Burrow has been an escape artist since he entered the league.  That is his game and why we sucked so bad early on.  His calf injury was non-contact, no one was within 15 yards of him.   I'm not sure what more to say, maybe watch some highlights from previous years or something?

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Caesar's a fan, what's the big deal?  Has some good points too.  At the end of the day it will be played out on the field.

 

What amazes me it that the Bills & Bengals have played 5 quarters and the Bengals are coming off a very good game against a team that has now lost 3 in a row and the narrative has flipped.

 

Actually I'm feeling better now thinking back to the playoffs and remembering, that yep, I blamed McD and coaching and forgetting just how slick the field was and yep emotionally maybe the Bills were drained.

 

Conversely I have minimal confidence in the Bills Defense, but just a stop or two and a FG, not a TD and I'll then roll the dice with Josh. 

Many Bengals fans felt that the Bills had no energy in that playoff game.  They absolutely went through a ton of adversity last season.  

I am not extremely confident in my team whatsoever, this game will be a solid litmus test for both teams IMHO.

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, Caesar said:

 

Are you referring to his scrambling?

With all due respect, Burrow has been an escape artist since he entered the league.  That is his game and why we sucked so bad early on.  His calf injury was non-contact, no one was within 15 yards of him.   I'm not sure what more to say, maybe watch some highlights from previous years or something?

Scrambling is one thing, but it seemed like the guy thought he was Jerome Bettis or something out there finishing runs.  Not that we haven't had that same issue with Allen.

[Caesar]

3 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

That is a good list - I'll give you that. But put our front 4 together as one unit and that's the key. We will see. Naming one-offs is fine but you just watch Sunday. Then again... who knows. Anything can happen. AND IT WILL!!!!! crush

 

Lol, ok kid.   I know your players but I am not on expert on them, on the outside looking in it would seem that losing Jones would be a big hit.  I know our dline wouldnt be the same if we lost a guy of that caliber. 

1 minute ago, SWATeam said:

Scrambling is one thing, but it seemed like the guy thought he was Jerome Bettis or something out there finishing runs.  Not that we haven't had that same issue with Allen.

 

I see.  Yes you are correct.  Joe likes contact, he is an idiot at times.  Joe is a Ferrari without the top end speed, at least Allen is a semi truck.

[Caesar]

On 11/1/2023 at 12:56 PM, PBF81 said:

 

I'm not sure that DJ Reader is any less of a "hole" than our options.  

 

Phillips has had a better career than Reader, and he was better here last season.  I don't understand why the drop in performance.  He's only 31.  I have to think that they can tweak the D to help him contribute more.  

 

As to the LBs, we've discussed that ad nauseum and essentially agree.  The players on the roster are the ones that they chose.  Now they have to live with it.  

 

Either way, we could conversly say that we don't have the hole that they have in the entire secondary too.  

 

Particularly if Douglas starts, as I suspect he will.  

 

... and FWIW, their rushing D is worse than ours.  

 

If we can't generate some serious offense on SN ... 

 

 

This is the 1st time I have ever read any DJ Reader negativity.  The guy is touted by many as the absolutely best run NG in the NFL.  We will see how he does Sunday night but he is vital to our defense.

Hole in our secondary?  We have an insane WR rating, it is very good.  Granted we have a safety spot that could be better and for some reason the only TE we ever cover is Kelce...

Bengals D is coming around now that the offense decided to stop breaking 3 & out records.  Allen is a huge test though.

Edited November 3, 2023 by Caesar