If the Bills Don’t Make it to the AFCCG, Should McDermott Be Fired?

[stlbills13]

Firing him is a big risk as he is a really good coach. But this team has enough top end talent that they can carry a mediocre coach to a Wild Card game. I don't really care if we lose in the wild card round or the divisional round. So yeah I'd give it a lot of consideration. Ben Johnson from Detroit is a stud playcaller. I'd love to have him here. But for every guy like him, there are 10 "up and coming" coaches that I would not take over McD.

 

I do think the Bills can and will win a super bowl with McD. But yeah if you continue to show an inability to get over the hump, you have to take a risk and move on

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't need to reconcile anything. There is nothing inconsistent between saying Brandon Beane runs the draft and Kincaid hasn't yet seen significant usage by the coaches.

 

Well OK, good morning to you as well.   

 

That's not the point.  the point is that either someone f'd up royally in the assessment of Kincaid, which based upon virtually all of the draft profiles from reputable draft analysts is far from the case, or it's a coaching/use issue.  There really isn't another option in this case.  

 

If it's the former, then it is what it is.  If it's the latter, then there's a very serious disconnect somewhere, particularly since we can ask the same questions re: a bunch of former 1st and 2nd round draft picks.  

 

The question was both serious and sincere and I was hoping for a more intelligent answer from you.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

There is no contradiction. Am I sure it has never happened? No I am not, I can't be. But I have spoken to people who have seen those conversations and that is not the way it operates. If it has happened then that happening is exceptional. Whereas because they have picked defensive players you are convinced McDermott is running the draft. He isn't. The process is as I set out per people who have been in those draft meetings.

 

I'll enter into the fray here between you and Bill from NYC here as well.  

 

Here's the thing about that statement by you, his (McD's) guys are going to defend him.  It's also not a reach to suggest that if they didn't, and he found out about it, they may no longer have employment there. 

 

Much like Allen's defending Dorsey in the media now, saying that those critical of Dorsey (et al) aren't privy to the discussions.  I mean given the hints that Dorsey is Allen's choice, that also shouldn't be anything approaching an epiphany.  And that's all fine and dandy, but it's hardly questionable that they went into the Jax game flat, for example.  Or that we massively underachieved vs the Giants.  These, and other things, are blatant, not anything that one has to "be in the room" regarding.  I mean even the announcers are picking on certain plays.  No need to "be in the room" to notice those glaring, and many are glaring, issues.  

 

If I can add, the biggest thing that Allen seems to have taken from McD is parroting [his] line, "I need to be/play better."  That's starting to sound like a broken record.  McD's press nonsense as well.  Anytime there's a "broken record," it' s safe assumption that it's the DJ that's at least largely at fault.  We've seen very little besides the most superficial of accountability here on McD's watch if we want to be honest, at least insofar as the media goes.  

 

I will even suggest that if their play is an issue, even sporadically, if those tacks with the media continue, it's not doing them any favors.  

 

Ergo, it's a real reach that "his guys" are going to say anything different to outsiders.  

 

And look, I know that you disagree here, just throwing these things out in the interests of good and informative debate, but they are relevant.  You know that I'm of the opinion that McD is a control freak, and I'll site your own statement above, McDermott weilds the most power in the organisation, as at least a reasonable basis for that take.  And yes, before you get all upset, I realize that's not what you were saying, I get it.  But nonetheless, it's also not a large leap from that, your, statement, to my premise.  And as Bill and many other point out, this team's MO, let's call it "The Process" since "The Process" has never officially been defined, leans very very heavily to McD's strengths, but more relevantly, very very much away from his weaknesses, namely the offense.  

 

Whether that's wise given the generational talent that we have at QB is certainly within the realm of honest debate and discussion.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

It is unlikely others in the room are privy to McDermotts and Beanes private conversations. They could be reporting 100% accurately what the see. But what they see is very unlikely the whole picture.  

 

Of course that is also true. But I think people misunderstand how the relationship works. They have ultimate trust in each other. It why they don't interfere in one another's jobs and why the prospect of one surviving beyond the other is extremely slim to none.

[PBF81]

56 minutes ago, stlbills13 said:

Firing him is a big risk as he is a really good coach. But this team has enough top end talent that they can carry a mediocre coach to a Wild Card game. I don't really care if we lose in the wild card round or the divisional round. So yeah I'd give it a lot of consideration. Ben Johnson from Detroit is a stud playcaller. I'd love to have him here. But for every guy like him, there are 10 "up and coming" coaches that I would not take over McD.

 

I do think the Bills can and will win a super bowl with McD. But yeah if you continue to show an inability to get over the hump, you have to take a risk and move on

 

This is going to work itself out this season.  By season's end the balance of belief in McD is going to shift in one direction or the other.  

 

It won't so much be predicated upon whether or not we win in whichever round, it will hinge entirely upon how prepared our team is to play, whether or not we put forth our best effort in any game, win or lose, and whether it's deemed that coaching has anything to do with a loss.  

 

i.e., if we end up playing the Chiefs, Jags, or Fins, but get outcoached with obvious play-calling blunders, and lose, and the offense obviously underperforming, then support for McD & Co. will shift one way.  If we beat a wild card team like Pittsburgh, Cleveland, the Raiders or Colts but only barely, then it's also not going to be good and will depend upon the following games.  

 

If we play the Chiefs, Jags, or Fins, put up our best game in a hard-fought well-coached game, I see a shift towards support for McD & Co.  Keep in mind though, that would be a playoff first for him.  

 

Either way, there's still 11 games remaining, a lot of different things could happen, nothing's going to change, nor should, at this point.  Again, it'll work itself out, not everyone's going to be happy when it does.  LOL 

 

 

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

It is unlikely others in the room are privy to McDermotts and Beanes private conversations. They could be reporting 100% accurately what the see. But what they see is very unlikely the whole picture.  

 

Great point!  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well OK, good morning to you as well.   

 

That's not the point.  the point is that either someone f'd up royally in the assessment of Kincaid, which based upon virtually all of the draft profiles from reputable draft analysts is far from the case, or it's a coaching/use issue.  There really isn't another option in this case.  

 

If it's the former, then it is what it is.  If it's the latter, then there's a very serious disconnect somewhere, particularly since we can ask the same questions re: a bunch of former 1st and 2nd round draft picks.  

 

The question was both serious and sincere and I was hoping for a more intelligent answer from you.  

.  

 

Well it was the point until you waded in with a completely irrelevant point to the conversation that we were having. You asked me how I "reconcile" my account of how the Bills personnel process works with the fact that Dalton Kincaid has been underused or underwhelming so far. 

 

"reconcile

verb

to make one account consistent with another"

 

There is nothing to reconcile between me saying that Brandon Beane runs personnel, including the draft (he does) and Kincaid's usage because one is not inconsistent with the other. Indeed if I'd said "McDermott runs the draft he has total control" (he doesn't) that would be inconsistent with the fact that two years in a row now there seems to have been some issues with getting the first round pick to fit quickly into what they are running. That is the way round you would have something to reconcile if I was saying the coach picks the players and then the evidence suggested he didn't use the ones he picked.

 

What you came in with was a completely off topic point which is "why are we not seeing more from Dalton Kincaid?"

 

I'll give you my view, but I start by saying there is actually a 3rd option which is what I'd call the Sal C option "the Bills don't expect a lot year one from their draft picks they draft guys for the long term and are all about development" which is a line he trots out a lot and there is some truth to (Cook and Bernard have certainly showed significant development year 1 to year 2). I don't actually go for that argument by the way, I think it is a) fitting a narrative to find a way to defend the team and b) while there might be times when it is true to an extent.... you can argue Cook and Bernard were moves ahead of time knowing Singletary and Edmunds would be gone - it isn't consistent with where the Bills were last spring and what they told us about the drafting of Kincaid. So I don't buy that as an option but I have heard it offered by Sal and others and I think it is worth just making that point. 

 

Personally I think it is mainly coaching. In the pre-season game (I think it was the Bears one) we saw Kincaid running vertically down the field and throwing those intermediate passes to him. That is how he should be being used. Not every snap, but at least 2-3 times per game. Okay pre-season is pre-season but there was nothing in what we saw that suggested he couldn't be used similarly in the regular season. Instead they have used him almost exclusively as a safety valve almost the way you would use a more traditional scrappy slot receiver like a Cole Beasley. I don't understand it. They need to design plays for Kincaid down the field in the intermediate zones against linebackers and safeties and he has to be the primary read on those plays. Because he will have an edge athletically on a lot of the guys you match him up against. If they start using him on those routes and Josh isn't throwing him the ball we can have a different conversation. But at the moment I haven't seen them doing it enough.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Well it was the point until you waded in with a completely irrelevant point to the conversation that we were having. You asked me how I "reconcile" my account of how the Bills personnel process works with the fact that Dalton Kincaid has been underused or underwhelming so far. 

 

"reconcile

verb

to make one account consistent with another"

 

There is nothing to reconcile between me saying that Brandon Beane runs personnel, including the draft (he does) and Kincaid's usage because one is not inconsistent with the other. Indeed if I'd said "McDermott runs the draft he has total control" (he doesn't) that would be inconsistent with the fact that two years in a row now there seems to have been some issues with getting the first round pick to fit quickly into what they are running. That is the way round you would have something to reconcile if I was saying the coach picks the players and then the evidence suggested he didn't use the ones he picked.  

 

What you came in with was a completely off topic point which is "why are we not seeing more from Dalton Kincaid?"

 

I'll give you my view, but I start by saying there is actually a 3rd option which is what I'd call the Sal C option "the Bills don't expect a lot year one from their draft picks they draft guys for the long term and are all about development" which is a line he trots out a lot and there is some truth to (Cook and Bernard have certainly showed significant development year 1 to year 2). I don't actually go for that argument by the way, I think it is a) fitting a narrative to find a way to defend the team and b) while there might be times when it is true to an extent.... you can argue Cook and Bernard were moves ahead of time knowing Singletary and Edmunds would be gone - it isn't consistent with where the Bills were last spring and what they told us about the drafting of Kincaid. So I don't buy that as an option but I have heard it offered by Sal and others and I think it is worth just making that point. 

 

There, you did reconcile it.  LOL  It wasn't difficult.  

 

Several thoughts there too however.  Upon drafting Kincaid, and the quotes are there publicly, but we were told by McBeane that he would have a role this season and that it would be a signifiant one.  I don't ever recall them saying, although maybe it's out there as I don't claim to read everything, that they were going to use him sparingly, the contrary is what I read, i.e., how much he'll help the offense in whatever manner they were planning on using him.  

 

But you also raise a great point in this discussion, namely that this "Sal C option" puts us as a major disadvantage with teams that do not deploy this what many consider to be idiotic option.  In fact, that's one of the major and significant criticisms as to why we're not better, because we sit, in the "cheap years" of contracts, or underuse them perhaps, our draftees, and as they approach their rookie contract expiration dates.  This, while other teams put them to use.  

 

That still doesn't address why Davis had 599 yards, 7 TDs, and 20 1st-Downs.  Are they finding less use for Kincaid?  IDK, but with your post as a backdrop, it definitely raises that question.  

 

As to the "Sal C option," we can can actually use queueing theory modeling to reveal the negative impact that has and the stress it therefore puts on the team in necessetating free agent acquisitions while tying up more and seemingly unnecessary cap dollars.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Personally I think it is mainly coaching. In the pre-season game (I think it was the Bears one) we saw Kincaid running vertically down the field and throwing those intermediate passes to him. That is how he should be being used. Not every snap, but at least 2-3 times per game. Okay pre-season is pre-season but there was nothing in what we saw that suggested he couldn't be used similarly in the regular season. Instead they have used him almost exclusively as a safety valve almost the way you would use a more traditional scrappy slot receiver like a Cole Beasley. I don't understand it. They need to design plays for Kincaid down the field in the intermediate zones against linebackers and safeties and he has to be the primary read on those plays. Because he will have an edge athletically on a lot of the guys you match him up against. If they start using him on those routes and Josh isn't throwing him the ball we can have a different conversation. But at the moment I haven't seen them doing it enough.

 

Agree.  And that was obviously the likely use for him as stated in the many draft profiles.  

 

In the questioning of coaching, I'll throw up the following.  Of the first four TEs selected in the Draft, Kincaid having been the first, in trade-up fashion, two have more catches, neither had the receiving draft rep that Kincaid had/has.  

 

Kincaid:  19 targets, 17 catches, 118 yards, 6.9 Y/R, 0 TDs, 4 1Ds.  

LaPorta (taken 9 picks later):  42 targets, 29 catches, 325 yards, 11.2 Y/R, 3 TDs, 13 1Ds. 

Mayer (10 picks later):  11 targets, 8 catches, 116 yards, 114.5 Y/R, 0 TDs, 6 1Ds. 

Musgrave (17 picks later):  23 targets, 18 catches, 159 yards, 8.8 Y/R, 0 TDs, 5 1Ds.  

 

And Mayer and Musgrave have Garropolo and Love throwing to them, who will hardly ever be confused with Allen.  Even Goff isn't as good as Allen in Detroit for LaPorta. 

 

But also, they're using Torrence, drafted after Kincaid.  We could say, well that's because they need an OG badly.  Don't we need a receiver that's got Kincaid's credentials badly too then.  The short answer is yes, which once again points back to coaching.  

 

It's difficult not to notice that there are an awful lot of excuses and defenses being made, by players now as well, in favor of issues that for any other team would implicate coaching.  

 

At the end of the day, our offense is the most important part of this team.  It's nice that McD has his little "Project-Defense" going on for seven seasons, but it's that same defense's play that has failed us in the playoffs, at least more notably than the offense.  But we're not getting the most out of the offense, with Allen under center.  That's a problem which to whom we attribute it can be debated as it is.  I don't think we can lay Kincaid's lack of production at his feet for a failure to perform though.  

 

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by PBF81

[Buffalo03]

8 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Lol, no it wasn’t. It was spot on. You just missed the point originally. Different people are acceptable, to good, in different phases of a rebuild. If you’re a championship contender, you wouldn’t want Tyrod. To this point, you wouldn’t want McDermott either. Tyrod took a perennially bad team and made them okay. McDermott took a perennially bad team and made them perennially good. He hasn’t proven to be the guy to get them to their ceiling.
 

We aren’t at a point where Divisional Round losses are acceptable. He did the dirty work. McDermott took the team from the base of the mountain to 90% of the way to the summit. He deserves a ton of credit for it. If that’s as high as he can take them than someone else needs to finish the last 10%. He’s had enough chances to finish the job. Hopefully this is the year. 

I think that Houston, KC, KC, and Cincy was enough for me. I didn’t need to see this year and I certainly wouldn’t need to see it again next year. 4 times (5 including this year) they’ve been good enough to go to the Super Bowl (including a season where they were the favorites). They’ve fallen short each time. If they don’t go again this year, I don’t need to see a 6th bite at the apple. 

So, if we win the Super Bowl this year or next year or 2 years from now with him, Houston, Kansas City and Cincinnati was enough for you?

Edited October 20, 2023 by Buffalo03

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

There, you did reconcile it.  LOL  It wasn't difficult.  

 

 

I don't think you know what the word reconcile means.

[SoonerBillsFan]

4 hours ago, stlbills13 said:

Firing him is a big risk as he is a really good coach. But this team has enough top end talent that they can carry a mediocre coach to a Wild Card game. I don't really care if we lose in the wild card round or the divisional round. So yeah I'd give it a lot of consideration. Ben Johnson from Detroit is a stud playcaller. I'd love to have him here. But for every guy like him, there are 10 "up and coming" coaches that I would not take over McD.

 

I do think the Bills can and will win a super bowl with McD. But yeah if you continue to show an inability to get over the hump, you have to take a risk and move on

I'll say again, it's very little to no risk at all  with the roster the new coach would have esp. Allen. Get Allen an OC minded HC and see what happens

[PBF81]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think you know what the word reconcile means.

 

I would pose the same. 

 

Quote

 

2: to make consistent or congruous

reconcile an ideal with reality

 

 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/reconcile

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

So, if we win the Super Bowl this year or next year or 2 years from now with him, Houston, Kansas City and Cincinnati was enough for you?

Yes, of course!! That is literally my EXACT point. He’s had 4 teams that have been Super Bow caliber. He is 0-4. They have consistently fallen short at the most important times. In doing so, they are wasting valuable years of Allen’s prime. 
 

I would LOVE to be wrong but he has had enough chances. If he fails AGAIN, why should he get another year. 5 straight failures isn’t enough? How many chances should he get? 

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I would pose the same. 

 

 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/reconcile

 

 

 

Exactly. And there was NOTHING inconsistent in where I started. 

 

Try concentrating.

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

Yes, of course!! That is literally my EXACT point. He’s had 4 teams that have been Super Bow caliber. He is 0-4. They have consistently fallen short at the most important times. In doing so, they are wasting valuable years of Allen’s prime. 
 

I would LOVE to be wrong but he has had enough chances. If he fails AGAIN, why should he get another year. 5 straight failures isn’t enough? How many chances should he get? 

 

He hasn't had 4. He has had 3. 

 

2020

2021

2022

 

The 2019 team was not a Superbowl calibre team.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Exactly. And there was NOTHING inconsistent in where I started. 

 

Try concentrating.

 

He hasn't had 4. He has had 3. 

 

2020

2021

2022

 

The 2019 team was not a Superbowl calibre team.

I believe that 2019 team was good enough. I 100% believe that. They blew that playoff game too.

 

How many chances for you? You’d give him next year? 5 shots? You can’t do that in the salary cap era. Windows open and close too quickly than to waste Allen’s prime. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

I believe that 2019 team was good enough. I 100% believe that. They blew that playoff game too.

 

How many chances for you? You’d give him next year? 5 shots? You can’t do that in the salary cap era. Windows open and close too quickly than to waste Allen’s prime. 

 

I 100% disagree on 2019. That team and that version of Josh Allen was NOT championship calibre.

 

As for how many I don't have a number. I can't live in this predicting future failure world. Ask me what I think after this season and I will tell you. Ask me again after next season (cos regardless what we think he is here next season) and I will tell you. I don't judge on what I predict the future to be. I judge in the present. 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

On 10/17/2023 at 11:29 PM, Gugny said:

If the Bills Don’t Make it to the AFCCG, Should McDermott Be Fired?

 

I’m not in the Super Bowl or Bust crowd, but I am frustrated with what feels like Josh Allen’s prime years being wasted. 
 

The question posed is assuming Allen starts/plays every game this season. 
 

My vote is yes. 

 

I'm not there yet but I'm also not an automatic no either, I mean what he's done for this franchise in a short time that he's been here is nothing short of a miracle to be honest. On the flip side I don't think he holds people accountable and I know this because it took 2 major debacles (13 seconds/Bengals) for McDermott to fire DC Leslie Frazier who should have been canned after that 13 seconds BS and he didn't even fire him but agree to split mutually or some BS like that. I get that he didn't want to damage Faziers reputation but now the offense is struggling under Dorsey, are we now going to wait until next year or another debacle this time on the offense and waste another year to address this problem? Brady could 100% take over the play calling duties and not skip a beat. It's not a fireable offense on McDermott but it sure is getting to the point that we're wasting valuable years imo.

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I believe that 2019 team was good enough. I 100% believe that. They blew that playoff game too.

 

How many chances for you? You’d give him next year? 5 shots? You can’t do that in the salary cap era. Windows open and close too quickly than to waste Allen’s prime. 

Of course they were good enough

 

The Bengals have proven getting dumptrucked in Arrowhead isn't some foregone conclusion 

[Gugny]

55 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

He hasn't had 4. He has had 3. 

 

2020

2021

2022

I agree. 
 

2020 - lost AFCCG

2021 - lost divisional round

2022 - lost wild card 

 

That’s the wrong direction. 
 

It’s a problem. 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I agree. 
 

2020 - lost AFCCG

2021 - lost divisional round

2022 - lost wild card 

 

That’s the wrong direction. 
 

It’s a problem. 

We actually triumphantly beat the Miami Skylar Thompsons in 2022 wildcard 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Exactly. And there was NOTHING inconsistent in where I started. 

 

Try concentrating.

 

You're in a good mood.  

 

LOL  

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I agree. 
 

2020 - lost AFCCG

2021 - lost divisional round

2022 - lost wild card 

 

That’s the wrong direction. 
 

It’s a problem. 

 

We didn't lose in the wildcard.