4 drives ended by dropped passes

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Ed Oliver was a BEAST in college. Thinking otherwise means you never watched him. The level of competition point is fair, Groot played in the SEC but Ed was dominant against his competition. While I recognise his career has had some inconsistency - good as a rookie, disappointing but playing out of position as a 2nd year player, up and down year 3.... he was very consistent when he was healthy last year though. Since the start of last season whenever Ed Oliver has been healthy he has been a game wrecker. By the end of last season he was held together by sticky tape.

 

In Oliver's all-important junior season he loaded up his stats on East Carolina, Rice, and Navy, not one team of which had good offense or more than 3 wins.  

 

Groot played in the ACC, not the SEC.  He was at Miami for one season after a red-shirt rookie year.  He was an enigma there.  

 

None of that is important, we're all hoping that he finally, but after four seasons, turns into that "beast" that everyone claimed would mimic Donald.  I'll take 75% of Donald.  LOL  Where we differ is in the likelihood of that happening.  We'll see, hopefully he does.  

 

Groot, as with you, IMO he'll be fine, but again, last season he also started quickly.  Last season in his first four games he started with 4 Sacks, 5 TFLs, and 6 QBHits.  This season through four games he's logged 3 Sacks, 4 TFLs, and 4 QBHits, lest we forget that many said the same thing about him at this time last season.  So we'll see.  

 

Here's the thing that most people do not take into account.  Many players go in streaks.  As you talked about elite players, they typically show up all the time with perhaps a bad game or two, sometimes three throughout the season.  But other players often put up only 3, 4, 5, or 6 good games a season.  Sometimes those games are up front, and given that we're a team that typically comes out of the gates swinging when the season begins, almost as if our September record dictates whether or not we go to the Super Bowl.  I'm being partially facetious BTW.  

 

The point is that some players simply run that streak early on.  Not just on our team, but throughout the league.  It's bad form to extrapolate stats, particularly in the case of a player like Jones, from his first quarter, throughout the season when in 9 other seasons he's never come close to doing anything like that.  At 32 it's highly unlikely that the 10th time's the charm.  He's never even made a Pro-Bowl but we all had him penciled in as playing to that level.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't think that is hedging I think it is being adult about it and recognising there are a range of possible outcomes. If you want a prediction - fine - then so long as he stays healthy I think by the end of the year Ed O will be right on the cusp and the conversation will be "he has had an elite season but is one season enough to say he is an elite player?" and Groot I think will have the best production numbers of his career in terms of pressures and sacks but won't be in the elite level conversation just yet.  

 

Difference of opinion then on that first part.  Which is fine.  Please don't take any of this personally.  Please don't.   

 

We'll see on the rest.   Obviously we'd both love for that to happen.  I simply look at decades of NFL history in terms of individual performance, and law-of-averages kind of stuff, which grounds me in my optimism.  You are clearly very bullish on that occuring per above and prior posts, whereas I am very cautiously optimistic, and having been burned numerous times in the past.  

 

For example, everyone's talking about how much better our defense is under McD than under Frazier.  But here are some facts that no one wants to hear to the contrary.  

 

We've allowed an average of 65 more YPG and fewer points (61) v. (80).  Our rushing D has collapsed, and that was even before our injuries this week.  Last season we allowed 10 rushing TDs all season, 4.3 YPC, and 104.6 YPG.  This season to date we've already allowed 4 rushing TDs, we've allowed 5.8 YPC, and 134.0 YPG.  Even before this week we allowed 118.5 YPG on 6.3 YPC.  

 

When I mention the law-of-averages, consider, we're presently on pace for 71 Sacks, 98 TFLs, and 142 QBHits.  Those would have ranked first across the board by last season's measures, same for the year prior.  

 

So we need to ask ourselves in the process of analysis, is that likely to continue.  Have you read the pieces about how Jax picked our pass-rush apart and [via great coaching not apparent on our side, not sure how a flight affects that] after having reviewed it?  Sure, we got 5 sacks and plenty of pressure, but Jax adapted to it according to multiple reports, and Lawrence had a great day.  

 

Instead of getting giddy, I ask myself, is our record-setting defensive pace likely to continue?  Not saying impossible, but likely.  IMO, no.  Again, that's MO, but based upon decades of doing football analytics.  IOW, I was doing "metrics" before metrics was even a thing.  

 

What happens is that the law-of-averages takes over.  The reasons why that pace isn't likely to be sustained are several, but injuries can easily be one of them.  But consider, and again, we don't have to agree, but simply consider, that perhaps the reasons for our injuries are at least in part due to the overall aggressive style of play that we're deploying here.  I won't go into details as these posts are long enough, but think generally of the methods employed to get our players to be so crazy swarming.  As I see it, it's quite possible and even likely that our swarming aggressive style of pass defense has contributed to our injuries.  Not saying all, like White, but others.  And perhaps not even on a given play, but perhaps simply the greater than normal wear-n-tear during a game, but also as the season rolls on.  

 

Food for thought there.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

No - Milano and White. And we didn't disagree at all on Milano pre-season. You keep accusing me of being one of the "linebacker will be alright" crowd I wasn't. I was in the "MLB is a liability on this team" crowd. I'm just big enough to say through 5 games Bernard has absolutely proved me wrong. And even on Sunday after Milano went down he was very good - ESPECIALLY against the run. I think WILL linebacker is very likely a weakness on this team now unless Williams can really get going quickly. 

 

OK, this is where you and I break.  Agree on Milano and the LBs, not sure why you think I'm saying the opposite.  If I did then I misspoke.  Don't read too much into everything.  

 

Btu on the "ESPECIALLY against the run," then why is our run D notably worse?  ... and again, even before the injuries on Sunday, many of which occurred well after Etienne was already putting a hurting on us.  

 

As we've discussed, with the exception now of your statements about our run D, above, IMO we now see teams run more UTM on us for two reasons.  First, Milano's out and he's played Middle just as much as Bernard has, perhaps simply not officially on the depth chart, but he's been lined up in a 2 LB set opposite whomever's been next to him, and not always Bernard either, frequently.  

 

But secondly, because it appears that teams have started to figure out our "new" defense under McD.  

 

As to White, he hasn't been a factor since early last season, so I'm not sure why his injury all of a sudden changes our D as it's been for most of last season at all.  And he sucked when he got back anyway.  We've been through this, you continue to ignore it.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Because Beane's draft record is better than average overall. Not many busts in 6 drafts. Not enough elite players though, on that we agree. You have to factor in stars, but drafting isn't only about stars. It is about having enough guys that can be solid starters in the NFL and enough people who can play roles to fill out your roster and he has been above average at finding both of those. A tick below in finding stars. 

 

Well, in applying your standard, and per this thread, we need 4-5 elite players to win a Super Bowl.  So using that standard, namely yours, after his very first draft pick, Allen, he's drafted exactly zero elite players, which by your standard would seem to indicate that he's not cutting the mustard here.  

 

A team full of "non-bust players" isn't necessarily a good team.  The goal isn't to draft non-busts, it's to draft impact/elite players as even you imply.  Beane has not done that.  We can continue to debate as to whether or not after 6 drafts that makes him a good GM or not, but IMO yours is an uphill argument given that.  

 

Again, it's OK to disagree.  Absolutely nothing that you or I discuss matters in terms of what actually happens.    

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I am sticking to that but that isn't the only way to judge a GM.

Mahomes, Jones, Kelce (all drafted by Dorsey, though Mahomes was Veach in all but name) Humphrey and Joe Thuney who they signed as a FA. 

 

Carter has been very good but again I'm not calling a player elite based on 5 games. I think he is a stud though and by the end of the year we may well be talking about him as elite. Smith is a good WR2. He is really a 1B. But the best receiver on that team, as the best receiver on this team, came via trade. AJ Brown is elite. 

 

When I watch Brock Purdy I don't see an elite QB. I think he is good, but at the moment I think the elite is Kyle's offense not Brock Purdy. 

 

You're missing the point on players like Carter and Purdy.  The point is that those players are contributing immediately, as rookies, or have and continue to in Purdy's case.  Their teams and fans aren't saying five seasons in, this is finally the season that so-and-so breaks out.  

 

That's partly why I criticize Beane far too often taking 21-year olds in the drafts, they're not ready to play at a high level.  He should know this.  Not saying that's the only reason, but again, the primary point here is that those draft picks are contributing heavily, as in making significant impacts, in their first seasons and if not as rookies, then in their second seasons.  

Here, we talk about hoping that Oliver isn't once again inconsistent in his 5th season, or Rousseau in his third.  Talking about Jones "finally breaking out" (my words) if that's even true, in his 10th, yet as a free agent.  

 

That's where Beane is falling short and it's hardly a minor issue.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Beane could have drafted elite players outside round 1. No argument there. His second round picks in particular haven't been great. I mean all of them haven't. I gave you the numbers. Some have, some haven't. But it is by 1 or 2 players. Beane needs another major hit soon though. I completely agree. 

 

I think what this comes down to is you'd be much more trigger happy in terms of firings than I would. That is your prerogative. I do think there is some level of pressure on Beane to come up with more true elite difference makers. Stef, Matt and Tre are all in their late 20s. Tre is now off a second bad injury. Matt is going to be coming off one too. He needs an Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, O'Cyrus Torrence, Terell Bernard to really hit. Otherwise in 2/3 years we might be looking and saying this team is Josh and not much else. 

 

Yeah, that's pretty much where we disagree.  Our goals are the same as fans.  

 

But Stef was an expensive free agent.  Not difficult to figure that he'd be good, particularly for that price, which he then owes.  

 

Matt wasn't Beane's pick.  Neither was Tre, so I leave them out of the Beane conversation.  

 

Completely agree with you in principle on that bolded part.  But again, where we do not view things similarly, which is fine, is in that the others that I've mentioned play well essentially from "day one."  Not literally, but more proverbially, out of the gate in their rookie seasons as it were.  

 

Whereas Oliver's in his 5th season and we're simply hoping for 2nd-round performance from a trade-up 1st.  He was a trade-up, right?  I forget.  But either way, in his fifth season.  Rousseau in his 3rd.  AJE in his 4th.  

 

Cook's a 2-down RB and will never be anything else.  Torrence already appears to be a monster, but it's taken Beane 6 drafts to land one OL-man like that.  Bernard still has limitations and we'll see how that plays out in his second season.  

 

But that's the primary difference, while our biggest competitors get solid play from their impact/elite players from their rookie seasons or early in their second seasons, we're hoping that our prospects for impact play materialize in Beane's selections 3rd, 4th, and 5th seasons.  

 

And again, disagreement is fine.  This is a discussion forum.  At the end of the day we both and all hope that the team sets records both offensively and defensively, and that we're all screaming our lungs out following a Super Bowl victory come February.  

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

What do all these comments have to do with 4 dropped passes, which was the Thread.  

 

Not even reading them, but the last 3-4 pages and nary a mention.

 

How's our dome coming along?  

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

BTW I don't think officially any were called drops.  The broadcast didn't show replays of the Knox drop (was it one or just great coverage).  The Cook one was not an easy pass and again maybe one replay, and certainly catchable.  The Gabe one was a very easy pass to catch imo and right in his hands and lead him perfectly.  

 

Officially there are 4 drops credited in this game - 1 each to Diggs (presumably the back shoulder along the sideline), Cook, Davis, and Knox. 4 drops on 40 attempts... not gonna win a lot of games with a 10% overall drop percentage.

 

Knox is back to a rookie-level drop percentage of 15.8%... For all the talk about Kincaid, he has been by far the biggest disappointment on offense IMO.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yes good point on Epenesa.    There were actually people advocating dumping Epenesa to keep Boogie Basham.    Elam is a talented player and progress is not always linear.

 

Yup, and those people were crazy iMO for suggesting it...I mean AJE quietly had 6.5 sacks last year playing part time and for a DC allergic to creating sacks on the QB.

 

Speaking of Boogie...doesnt seem like he is doing much with NYG either...we clearly made the right choice

[GunnerBill]

21 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Groot played in the ACC, not the SEC.  He was at Miami for one season after a red-shirt rookie year.  He was an enigma there.  

 

For example, everyone's talking about how much better our defense is under McD than under Frazier.  But here are some facts that no one wants to hear to the contrary.  

 

Btu on the "ESPECIALLY against the run," then why is our run D notably worse?  ... and again, even before the injuries on Sunday, many of which occurred well after Etienne was already putting a hurting on us.  

Here, we talk about hoping that Oliver isn't once again inconsistent in his 5th season, or Rousseau in his third.  Talking about Jones "finally breaking out" (my words) if that's even true, in his 10th, yet as a free agent.  

 

Whereas Oliver's in his 5th season and we're simply hoping for 2nd-round performance from a trade-up 1st.  He was a trade-up, right?  I forget.  But either way, in his fifth season.  Rousseau in his 3rd.  AJE in his 4th.  

 

 

I didn't quote you whole post because there is a lot in there that is either done to death and it is just opinion v opinion and you gotta pay your money and take your choice and some stuff (mainly the comparison between the McD defense and Frazier defense) where actually I share many of your views.... but just a few things to come back on:

 

1. Of course you are right on Groot. My mistake. My head always goes to the SEC with the 'canes and I always need to remind myself they are not.

2. I am not one of the people who has been banging that drum.

3. The Jet game is was just one big run really and while I accept Bernard was at fault for that one long run he was at fault in alignment and that was just lack of time on task over the summer. On Sunday the Jags didn't beat us UTM (as you like to say) they beat us by running at weak edges. Neither Floyd nor AJE are naturally brilliant run defenders despite both having good games as pass rushers (that is an area we really miss Groot or Shaq's ability to play early downs) and we had backup corners. They attacked what were known weaknesses. Bernard still had a really good game as a run defender. There are problems with the run defense, they are not really Bernard problems though. 

4. I suppose on Ed what I say is this might be a breakout in terms of pure production numbers but in terms of performance he has already broken out. It is just he is getting the numbers his performances the past two seasons have deserved. He has been one of the best penetrating defensive tackles in the NFL the past two seasons. Rousseau has been on a steady incline. He was solid as a rookie. Good last year and looks so far like he has taken another step. Jones isn't breaking out, Jones was really good for us last year and really good in Tennessee earlier in his career (and FWIW I agree his stats at the start of this season would have been unlikely to keep on at that pace). 

5. Ed was not a trade up. He was selected at #9 overall which was out original pick after going 6-10 in 2018.

[PBF81]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

3. The Jet game is was just one big run really and while I accept Bernard was at fault for that one long run he was at fault in alignment and that was just lack of time on task over the summer. On Sunday the Jags didn't beat us UTM (as you like to say) they beat us by running at weak edges. Neither Floyd nor AJE are naturally brilliant run defenders despite both having good games as pass rushers (that is an area we really miss Groot or Shaq's ability to play early downs) and we had backup corners. They attacked what were known weaknesses. Bernard still had a really good game as a run defender. There are problems with the run defense, they are not really Bernard problems though. 

 

Agree with your entire post for the most part.  Particularly that we've covered just about everything.  LOL  

 

On this point however, also keep in mind, and you know this so simply preaching to the choir presumably, but it typically takes 5 or 6 games, and often until a capable opposing coordinator faces a team with a new HC or coordinator, to figure out and possible "solve" their offensive or defensive schemes.  It's happened time and time again over the years.  I pointed out in another thread just now how that's likely why Daboll's Giants started 6-1 and 7-2 last season but have gone 4-10 since.  

 

IMO that's what happened on Sunday.  Press Taylor (and Pederson) figured out our D and as you say, took advantage of its weaknesses.  The problem is that the teams that generally will do that, are the ones that we need to be able to beat to win a championship.  

 

Teams with good offenses and competent OCs will now use Sunday's video and info to gameplan against us.  

 

We'll see how it shakes out.  Speaking of Daboll's Giants, LOL, the nice thing for us is that we should be able to beat them even if Josh didn't suit up an Kyle took his place.  Home game for us, hopefully Kyle ends up playing the second half, or most of it.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Agree with your entire post for the most part.  Particularly that we've covered just about everything.  LOL  

 

On this point however, also keep in mind, and you know this so simply preaching to the choir presumably, but it typically takes 5 or 6 games, and often until a capable opposing coordinator faces a team with a new HC or coordinator, to figure out and possible "solve" their offensive or defensive schemes.  It's happened time and time again over the years.  I pointed out in another thread just now how that's likely why Daboll's Giants started 6-1 and 7-2 last season but have gone 4-10 since.  

 

IMO that's what happened on Sunday.  Press Taylor (and Pederson) figured out our D and as you say, took advantage of its weaknesses.  The problem is that the teams that generally will do that, are the ones that we need to be able to beat to win a championship.  

 

Teams with good offenses and competent OCs will now use Sunday's video and info to gameplan against us.  

 

We'll see how it shakes out.  Speaking of Daboll's Giants, LOL, the nice thing for us is that we should be able to beat them even if Josh didn't suit up an Kyle took his place.  Home game for us, hopefully Kyle ends up playing the second half, or most of it.  

 

 

 

I definitely think it is is true that teams will look at some of McDermott's playcalling as it differs to Leslie - especially up front - and adjust.   But the Bills getting some critical guys back - especially on the edge up front should avoid some of what we saw Sunday. Similarly on offense the Jags had seen us playing three weeks worth of dink and dunk against zone and were determined to take that away and Dorsey had no counter punch. There will be tests to come for both sides of the ball. 

[PBF81]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I definitely think it is is true that teams will look at some of McDermott's playcalling as it differs to Leslie - especially up front - and adjust.   But the Bills getting some critical guys back - especially on the edge up front should avoid some of what we saw Sunday. Similarly on offense the Jags had seen us playing three weeks worth of dink and dunk against zone and were determined to take that away and Dorsey had no counter punch. There will be tests to come for both sides of the ball. 

 

This week will be a good game to pull ourselves together and retrack.  Along with Howell, Jones was the most sacked QB in the league.  It's my understanding that he's not playing, but there's a reason for the sacks besides simply Jones, so even with Taylor, or whomever they're starting if not him, and given our offense against their low-end passing defense we should be fine.  

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

We scored 7 points for 75% of the game. It sucked offensively. The funniest thing is fans here probably would look at Lamar Jackson’s stats last game and think he sucked and could care less that he had several huge drops as well.

 

allen wasn’t close to the main problem. But that was a dud game. He will bounce back and have a monster game this week. But that was a bad game.

[CincyBillsFan]

49 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

We scored 7 points for 75% of the game. It sucked offensively. The funniest thing is fans here probably would look at Lamar Jackson’s stats last game and think he sucked and could care less that he had several huge drops as well.

 

allen wasn’t close to the main problem. But that was a dud game. He will bounce back and have a monster game this week. But that was a bad game.

I have enough to worry about then to dwell on Lamar Jackson's receivers dropping his passes.  Couldn't care less. I'll eave that to folks on the Ravens board to ponder.

 

I disagree with you about Allen's game. By every statistical & expert evaluation I've seen he had a very good to great game.  And my own eyes on watching the game confirm this.  What we saw Sunday was a great example of the fact that football is a TEAM game. 

 

IMO the most concerning thing to me was that even though Allen played very well the offense could not get on track until late in the game.  I'm hoping and confident that this was a one off in which a jet lagged team played poorly against a rested team.  It would be like if 80% of your players were suffering from the flu on game day versus a team completely healthy.

 

 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I have enough to worry about then to dwell on Lamar Jackson's receivers dropping his passes.  Couldn't care less. I'll eave that to folks on the Ravens board to ponder.

 

I disagree with you about Allen's game. By every statistical & expert evaluation I've seen he had a very good to great game.  And my own eyes on watching the game confirm this.  What we saw Sunday was a great example of the fact that football is a TEAM game. 

 

IMO the most concerning thing to me was that even though Allen played very well the offense could not get on track until late in the game.  I'm hoping and confident that this was a one off in which a jet lagged team played poorly against a rested team.  It would be like if 80% of your players were suffering from the flu on game day versus a team completely healthy.

 

 

 

 

Agree to disagree and not saying it’s the majority of Allen’s fault. But our defense with a million injuries gave up 11 points. Zero reason why an offense led by a top 3 qb should not win the game. 
 

raise the expectation. Allen would tell you the same thing. I know you aren’t allow to ever question Allen (again, not close to the main issue) but that was not a good offensive display.

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Agree to disagree and not saying it’s the majority of Allen’s fault. But our defense with a million injuries gave up 11 points. Zero reason why an offense led by a top 3 qb should not win the game. 
 

raise the expectation. Allen would tell you the same thing. I know you aren’t allow to ever question Allen (again, not close to the main issue) but that was not a good offensive display.

11 points would have won the game

 

unfortunately we gave up 25

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Agree to disagree and not saying it’s the majority of Allen’s fault. But our defense with a million injuries gave up 11 points. Zero reason why an offense led by a top 3 qb should not win the game. 
 

raise the expectation. Allen would tell you the same thing. I know you aren’t allow to ever question Allen (again, not close to the main issue) but that was not a good offensive display.

It was Dorsey and lousy offensive play calling very little to do with Josh Allen.  Dropped passes hurt too, but generally the useless run calls and dinks and dunks when it was obvious that there were plays down the field to be made was the downfall.

 

Oh and the defense giving up 500 yards, and the offense never having the ball in good field position didn't help either.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Agree to disagree and not saying it’s the majority of Allen’s fault. But our defense with a million injuries gave up 11 points. Zero reason why an offense led by a top 3 qb should not win the game. 
 

raise the expectation. Allen would tell you the same thing. I know you aren’t allow to ever question Allen (again, not close to the main issue) but that was not a good offensive display.

Why whenever we push back on what we believe is an unfair and inaccurate criticism of Allen you people throw out the old "I know you aren’t allowed to ever question Allen" canard?  It gets old especially given that when on those rare occasions that Allen has a truly bad game, like week one this season, we are appropriately critical.

 

The fact remains that the overwhelming majority of objective evidence shows that Allen played very well on Sunday while the offense overall did not.  I suspect that's the topic of interest to most Bills fan.  Not trying to act like Allen's play wasn't anything but outstanding against Jacksonville. 

 

This is why IMO the culprit here is the impact of jet lag on the players.  Allen who is without doubt a top 3 QB plays well but the offense still flounders.  Looking at the defense you can see the same strange outcome.  The defense played well at times but was woeful on 3rd down at the most critical moments of the game.  Something was off and I'll place my bet on the players biological clocks.

 

[Bermuda Triangle]

this should be subtitled 'The Gabe & Dawson Thread'